The Times tomorrow has fresh YouGov polling of Labour members suggesting Jeremy Corbyn is comfortably ahead of both challengers. Asked their first preference Jeremy Corbyn leads with 54% to Angela Eagle’s 21% and Own Smith’s 15%. Corbyn easily wins in a head-to-head run off against either – he beats Eagle by 58% to 34% and Smith by 56% to 34%.

The poll is of Labour members who joined before January 2016, so will be eligible to vote in the contest, but obviously doesn’t yet include people who sign up to be registered supporters in the short window this week. Sam Coates is tweeting more results.


232 Responses to “YouGov members poll shows Corbyn beating Eagle or Smith by 20+ points”

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  1. Catmanjeff

    You missed:
    the LDs are led by a fundamentalist Christian. There are a lot of people who’d find that unpalatable and plenty of scope for awkward questions from the media.

  2. The influential twitter commentator Duncan Weldon has come out this evening – for Owen Smith.

    “I’ll be voting for Owen Smith. I want a left of centre leader who can hold the party together & seriously challenge the Tories electorally” he exclaimed.

  3. Arguably it was both the split opposition and the Falklands, the former lowering the Labour vote and the latter lifting the Tory vote.

  4. @”The influential twitter commentator”

    Oh God!

  5. Its interesting that former labour leader Ed Miliband was the figure who nominated Owen Smith.

    He said he was a very effective shadow minister.

  6. Carfrew

    Blair was good for identity politics, it was one way he could define himself against the Tories and kept the left on board.

  7. @Carfew

    From that wiki article

    “The opposition vote split almost evenly between the SDP/Liberal Alliance and Labour. With its worst performance since 1918, the Labour vote fell by over 3 million from 1979 and this accounted for both a national swing of almost 4% towards the Conservatives and their larger parliamentary majority of 144, even though the Conservatives’ total vote fell by almost 700,000.”

    So the Conservative vote actually fell and they won more seats….and they say democracy works!

  8. Yes, yes, yes. I think we’ve had enough bickering between Labour sympathising commenters about where their sympathies lie, defending or demonising Jeremy Corbyn’s opponents within the party (and indeed, getting cross about whether other commenters are reasonable or should be allowed to have an opinion).

    This is why I ask people to leave their own politics at the door. As ever, please do feel feel to discuss what polling suggests the public think of Jeremy Corbyn, his opponents or the Labour party in general, or what the Labour party membership think of them and how the vote may go… but please do leave discussion of your own opinions of them for somewhere else.

  9. The betting markets know it’s Corbyn. I fail to see, without some serious fudging, how Smith can get in against the members.

  10. @Guymonde pt 2

    Thus, you have issues over who should lead and is electorally suitable, over the democracy issue, over policies, over entryism and agendas… and then it gets polluted by people suggesting agendas needlessly. E.g. the idea it’s peeps with a grievance against Blair. Well, I don’t. I think Blair was good for some things, e.g. identity politics, tolerance etc., not so good at others.

  11. What happens if the court case stopping Jezza getting on the ballot because he doesn’t have 51 nominations succeeds? No election and a new leader… It’ll be what the Blairites wanted all along.

  12. @ Colin

    According to the tables of the Yougov poll in this topic, Corbyn definitely dropped among people who were members before the leadership election campaign last year. However, he is well ahead of those who became full members since then (these are cross breaks) upto January (so I suppose the £3 people who after the election of Corbyn joined).

    A lot depends on the affiliates – and it will vary a lot, and we just don’t know about the £25 ones – the signing up website crashed yesterday (creating conspiracy theories) and I heard that it was very slow today.

    Whether it’s a major crossroad for the LP – I don’t know. It could drag on, for example. There is also the High Court tomorrow (although I would be very surprised if the NEC vote was overturned).

    Smith is quite vulnerable due to his many statements in his short career – so it is really not about him – it is about pro and anti-Corbyn, which makes the “crossroad” a possibility (now I stated both :-))

  13. I would like to say that I fully support the exhortations of Anthony Wells.

    Let us leave our own opinions at the door and discuss the polling issues.

  14. There is a difference between defending someone, and pointing out where wires are getting crossed, or things getting needlessly polarised…

  15. BBC with a praise dripping article on new favourite Smith that wouldn’t be out of place on state media in some South America dictatorship.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36834096

  16. Interestingly 152 mps made nominations which is 30 less than voted no confidence. Also my MP who abstained in the no confidence vote and is still sitting in the shadow cabinet nominated Owen Smith. So I make that at least 31 Rebels that are missing. Did they want a righter candidate or are they having second thoughts?

  17. Cambridge Rachel

    I think some MPs will wish to come out for their candidate closer to the time – after listening carefully to both sides.

  18. LASZLO

    Obviously it is critical for the PLP that some disenchantment with JC’s leadership has set in.

    On the Polling Ben looks very optimistic-but presumably Smith has a lot of canvassing to do.

    I note that he praises Corbyn on the policy front & his pitch is I can give you his policies without the PLP schism , with Leadership added & a functioning Shadow Cabinet.

    I hadn’t realised he is 2010 intake-basic familiarity might be a hurdle .

  19. For example my MP has said he has not nominated either candidate but has said he wants to listen carefully to the policies put forward during the campaign and after listening to both sides come to a careful judgement as to who is best for the party and the country.

  20. @Prof Howard

    ‘I would like to say that I fully support the exhortations of Anthony Wells.
    Let us leave our own opinions at the door and discuss the polling issues.”

    Indeed. The most recent polls say that Corbyn is likely to beat Smith by around 20%. Allowing for the fact that nothing is ever certain, this indicates a likely Corbyn win. I’m these premises what does Owen Smith have to poll to enhance his chances of becoming a future leader?

  21. @Rach

    “Blair was good for identity politics, it was one way he could define himself against the Tories and kept the left on board.”

    ——-

    Indeed. But then Tories moved across to cover and neutralised it as a selling point…

  22. @ Anthony Wells

    Ok, I will keep out of those sort of discussions. Thanks.

    And as others, I also welcome your intervention.

  23. @Richard

    “So the Conservative vote actually fell and they won more seats…”

    ——–

    If you look at what polling showed the Conservative vote was shortly before the Falklands effect though…

  24. As a hypothetical, if corbyn wins will that change his public perception?

  25. No to Jexit.

  26. O/T

    Teresa May has a lot in common with ordinary Brits. See

    https://blog.findmypast.co.uk/famous-family-trees-theresa-may-1406260824.html

    Her paternal grandmother Amy Patterson Brasier was a parlour maid before she got married. Her maternal grandmother Violet Welland Barnes was a nanny/nurse at the age of 17.

    Maternal great grandfather was a carpenter and builder at various points. Paternal grandfather was a butler.

    If the Bullingdon Boys were patronising her because of her roots, it explains why she was so brutal and culled them all.

  27. @AW
    Apologies

  28. New thread

  29. And now Owen Smith has slip he a member of the revolving door club between the Labour party & the BBC, will we see Corbyn making further accusations of bias against the corporation? He’s no shied away from taking a swipe in the past and this just looks like the kind of ammunition his camp would seize gleefully !

  30. I’m always amused by this description of Owen Smith as “left-of-centre”….

    An MP who voted in favour of Trident and promoted privatising the NHS, despite his recent protests, cannot be accurately described as left-of-centre. If he walks like a Blairite, and quacks like a Blairite, he must be a Blairite.

  31. There appears to be another skeleton in the Smith closet as well.

    “In 2008, Smith moved to Amgen, the UK’s biggest biotech firm, to be its head of corporate affairs.”

    “2012. Illegal marketing practices. The Los Angeles Times reported on December 18, 2012, that AMGEN pleaded guilty and agreed to pay $150 million in criminal penalty and $612 million to resolve 11 related whistleblower complaints. Federal prosecutors accused the company of pursuing profits while putting patients at risk.[15] Larry Husten, a contributor at Forbes.com elaborates on AMGEN’s illegal marketing practices in this case, namely that the “government accused Amgen of marketing Aranesp for indications not approved by the FDA and other illegal marketing practices”.[16] One of the drugs mentioned in the lawsuit had sales of $492 million in the third quarter of 2012, down 17% from the same quarter the previous year due to “reimbursement problems and label changes”.[17]
    2012. Amgen paid $762 million after pleading guilty to criminal charges of improper promotion and sale of misbranded drugs.[18]”

    (From Wikipedia)

    As head of corporate affairs the buck should have stopped with Smith.

    Is this really a suitable candidate to lead one of the UKs major political parties?

  32. Just noticed Kuenssberg’s questioning of May. It was almost deferential and in marked contrast to her questioning of Corbyn. Unacceptable.

    As for the Labour leadership battle Smith comes across as a smooth operator. I think he will give Corbyn a run for his money.

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