The Times tomorrow has fresh YouGov polling of Labour members suggesting Jeremy Corbyn is comfortably ahead of both challengers. Asked their first preference Jeremy Corbyn leads with 54% to Angela Eagle’s 21% and Own Smith’s 15%. Corbyn easily wins in a head-to-head run off against either – he beats Eagle by 58% to 34% and Smith by 56% to 34%.

The poll is of Labour members who joined before January 2016, so will be eligible to vote in the contest, but obviously doesn’t yet include people who sign up to be registered supporters in the short window this week. Sam Coates is tweeting more results.


232 Responses to “YouGov members poll shows Corbyn beating Eagle or Smith by 20+ points”

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  1. LUDLOWBOY

    My reply is in mod for some reason.

  2. @Hawthorn

    There doesn’t have to be a reason, for automod…

  3. @LUDLOWNEWBOY

    I’d personally support rebuilding the small branch lines for use with railbus connections… But this would be the most massive infrastructure project the country has ever undertaken. Most of the rights of way are gone, and would need to be repurchased. Ancient level crossings would have to be replaced with grade separation. The existing unused grade separated crossing would all have to be checked, and I expect most will need to be rebuilt. Lines would have to be put back in, new stations built, and finally there’s the big problem.

    Next to none of our current main-line exchange stations are arranged to accept a branch-line terminus. We would be faced with having to build new platforms and new sidings at practically every main line station.

    It’s very likely that it’s simply a better long term plan to encourage small independent light-rail and tram projects on an area by area basis. And joining them up with the mainline rail-network to provide local to national transport interchanges.

    It also has to be remembered that some areas may never see benefit from restoring their branch lines. Their geography being such that it would actually be no improvement over bus traffic.

  4. On the challenge to Corbyn being on the ballot paper; I can’t see it succeeding. The LP constitution gives the NEC responsibility for interpreting and enforcing the rules. I can’t see the judiciary wanting to get involved unless the NEC acted irrationally.

  5. @Guymonde

    Well, you can always post on Labour list or summat if you only want Labour peeps commenting.

    But I wasn’t telling you what to do with the party. I was just clarifying summat, where there seems to be a misunderstanding. If you are going to keep recharacterising stuff you may limit what you can achieve, you might even make things worse…

    (But I’m not telling you to stop. If you wanna keep messing with your own head, that’s up to you…)

  6. (That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t stop though…)

  7. Looks like Angela Eagle is throwing in the towel.

  8. @Valerie

    If either side demonises the other, it makes thinking easier but the outcome worse.

    Peeps aren’t really engaging properly with each others’ points…

  9. RICH

    They were/are Conservatives and therefore cannot be considered proper women.

  10. Wow!!

    Public Health England has said vapers “should be allowed extra breaks and the use of “vaping” rooms at work so they do not have to mingle with tobacco smokers”…

    Also… “About half have given up tobacco completely since vaping”.

  11. ITV News: Iraq War families have launched crowdfunding appeal to ‘bring Tony Blair to justice’.

  12. @ Colin

    No, not at all – but this doesn’t excuse the PLP.

  13. @ Colin

    A not quite irrelevant example from the 1920s.

    There were some decent leftwing parties in Central and Eastern Europe. They called themselves communist, and were members of the Comintern (although they were just left of the social democrats). The Zinovjevite Comintern representatives then split these parties time to time again (they actually said it) using black art until they actually destroyed them in this process as the members eventually lost their loyalty to their party.

  14. Hugo Rifkind, writing in the Times, with the Headline “Plight of the young is a problem for all of us… The blatant advantages in wealth for baby boomers will lead to a damaging breakdown in trust between generations”

    …begins… “It’s surprisingly easy to offend baby boomers…. You try telling somebody born between the Second World War and the mid-Sixties that they might have had an easier life than someone a bit younger. Meltdown. ‘We worked hard!’ they’ll shout, from their massive houses that cost a whole two year’s salary in 1976. ‘And we didn’t have iPhones!'”

  15. Guymonde

    It’s great to have all these people who don’t support Labour (laszlo, Carfrew) telling us what to do with our party. Thanks very much.

    Well the spectator sees more of the game.

    But you’re reference to ‘our’ Party is actually quite revealing. Because if ‘our’ means the members, we know from this poll that they want Corbyn to stay – or at least a majority do. So the MPs and the minority of members should try to cooperate with that.

    But instead we seem to have an attitude from the MPs and many long-standing members that Labour is some sort of private members club that only the ‘right sort’ of people should be allowed to join. Hence the anger and refusal by many to co-operate from the moment of Corbyn’s election. It’s as if the club suddenly has a new owner and there’s loads of new members around who don’t look right.

    To an outsider there’s a visceral, rather territorial, reaction involved, that seems wildly disproportionate to the situation or, for example, to Corbyn’s policy positions. For the MPs and those in the Party bureaucracy you can see that there will be many who are fearing for their positions and jobs – though their actions are probably endangering their future more than more reasoned behaviour would. But many ordinary members (not just on here) seem as agitated.

    However in the end the Labour Party isn’t a private club – it’s a political Party in a democracy and should be open to all that agree with its principles.

  16. ” ‘We worked hard!’ they’ll shout, from their massive houses that cost a whole two year’s salary in 1976. ‘And we didn’t have iPhones!’”

    I did work hard. I bought my first house in 1976 for £13,950.

    And I didn’t have an iPhone, and still don’t (I have got a Nokia Windows phone, though).

    Is there a point to any of this?

  17. @ Guymonde

    Just in case – in every election in which I’m allowed to vote I vote for Labour and in a number of elections I gave logistical support to the LP …

    But, no, I’m not Labourite.

  18. @Guymonde

    “Then 5 minutes later you say it again!”

    ——–

    Jesus. I did not say that it was a choice between Blairism and Corbynism. I was pointing out you are confusing a CHOICE between those two things, and a BATTLE between them.

    I was agreeing with you, saying that the CHOICE is broader than that, in terms of what peeps might want in policy terms, or leaders or whatever, but there’s currently a bit of a battle between the two factions, Blair and Corby.

    It’s pretty clear what I mean, and you are just trying to force my argument into something easy to challenge.

    And Sure, not all the PLP are Blairites. No doubt you’d like to take refuge in more quibbling there too. Sometimes I call them careerists, or the quasi-neoliberal. Some Brownites in there too. No doubt some non-Blairites have been pressured into it, maybe some of those who broke down in tears.

    Quibbling over those orchestrating it won’t alter the fact you are completely dodging the point.

    Also, would you ditch the ad hominem, acting like I Have no right to comment because don’t vote Labour. It’s yet another distraction…

  19. @David Carrod

    “Is there a point to any of this?”

    ———–

    Yes, it’s been a hot topic in the past, when you weren’t around. And peeps comically made the same point you’re making. That they worked hard (and hence it was just as hard as for youngsters now. When it massively wasn’t…)

    But the point this time, was the extent of not wanting to hear the truth on the matter, of not having their bubble burst, wanting to close down the convo…

  20. I am sure that by now, you all know that Angie the Eagle has flown away from the leadership “race”. The Don Quixote of the Rhonda stands alone.

  21. And Miliband stands alone for Tories. Sez in the Times that a few enemies have been made by the sackings though and they “won’t be quiet for long”.

  22. LEWISHWALSHVOTESGREEN

    As you work in infrastructure perhaps you might be able to answer a question.

    Has anyone looked at the cost of upgrading the existing track to enable double-decker trains? It would increase capacity by 80% or so. I’ve used these in the Netherlands, and they work well. I suspect that cutting the existing track bed 5 foot lower, to allow double-decker trains through tunnels and under bridges, would be far cheaper than creating a entire new track-bed from London to Birmingham (among other reasons, not having to buy a new 100 mile right of way and compensate homeowners along it)

    I know it would not be quite as simple as I describe it, but I would have hoped that *someone* should have looked as this alternative before committing us to a 40+ billion expenditure.

  23. RICH
    As usual Colin has it taped. The Tory ladies were and are Tory ladies.
    Labour females are wimin. Two completely different species.

  24. @Roger

    It’d be interesting to look at the demographics of the remaining quasi-Blairites.

    ‘Cos for those working in the private sector, in the South, with big property gains, and an economy propped up by the government, and not suffering the funding cuts and wage freezes for aeons in the public sector, quasi-Blairism prolly still seems ok…

  25. @Roland

    You also lucked into cheap property, full employment, much cheaper bills and rent, and more besides. Essentials that are now very different for youngsters.

    Try considering property and rent prices and bills and pay in real terms and pensions for youngsters these days compared to your day…

  26. CARFREW
    Do leave off. Don’t you think people didn’t lose their jobs back then.
    Try earning £20 perweek and trying to borrow 7K. My daughter is a 37 year old maths teacher and her 32 year old brother is an army major. Both are at least as well of as I was. There are more people in work now than ever.

  27. These Labour Party Membership who are cited as keepers of The Parties “Democracy”

    When Miliband & Brown & Blair were voted Leader , was this by the same Members? Had they been just waiting for a “proper” Lefty all the time whilst they voted for those unnacceptable candidates?

    Or have the Party rule changes & the appearance of a Lefty on the ballot ,by dint of “loaned” nominations produced a wholly new lot of Members?

    Is it the case that the Members who provided Corbyn with his majority appeared ONLY when Corbyn was available to vote for.

    Isn’t “this” Labour Party ( as defined by its Members) an entirely different Labour Party to the pre-Corbyn one. And isn’t Momentum an organisation designed to keep it that way by ensuring that Corbyn supporters are in a majority?

    Is all of this actually “Democracy in action”-or is it Vote Rigging by Entryism?

    Just askin’

  28. @Roland

    Of course they lost their jobs, but being much closer to full employment meant easier to find new jobs, and wages were kept higher in real terms. That’s why back then could raise a family on a single wage.

    And property as only two or three times the typical wage. And bills cheaper etc.

  29. @Colin

    Thing is, if going to go down at road, need also to consider the other side, the capturing of the party by quasi-Balirites, parachuting etc., and members in the past leaving as a result of feeling disenfranchised…

    Too much polarisation at the mo…

  30. @roland,

    Yep. They really dont want a women leader do they, lol.

    Yvette Cooper was decent too, shame.

  31. and it will be Kinnock after this probably with the name…

  32. The problem for Labour is the contest is framed as a battle between the PLP and the members. And when its OMOV & there’s 400k members and 250 PLP there’s only one likely winner.

  33. Well the poll at the top of this thread is quite clear. A 20+ point lead is not something that will result in anything other than a Corbyn win.

    These Labour MP’s are presumably not stupid and can read the tea leaves, so what on earth are they doing?

    It can only mean a split?

    Interesting times….will the current 30% of Labour voters get behind Labour led by Corbyn, or “new new Labour”, or will they split down the middle leaving us with a one party Tory government in a first past the post system?

  34. Well they do say history is a good guide to the future, so if that rule works then this is what the future holds

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

    Lib Dems about to become the leading party in the polls?

  35. @Richard

    No.

    Absolutely not.

    Never.

  36. @ Carfew Roger and Lazslo

    You are doing a fine job of clarifying … keep on. Meanwhile, I’ll quietly agree with LizH and Cambridge Rachel.

  37. I thought this site was supposed to be non-partisan.

  38. @ Colin

    Tim Bale’s academic analysis indicates that the average age of LP members pre and post GE was 50: 51y old. He identified that a great proportion of the new members were returners who had left the LP during the New Labour years. My anecdotal experience is that a majority of my CLP’s pre-GE members were only too relieved to see the LP opposing finally George Osborne’s austerity.

  39. @Couper 2802

    “The problem for Labour is the contest is framed as a battle between the PLP and the members. And when its OMOV & there’s 400k members and 250 PLP there’s only one likely winner.”

    230 PLP.

  40. @Roger M
    Fair comment about ‘our’
    For me, more for others who have been involved longer, there is a sense that people with no ‘right’ are taking over and will usurp us all by picking up a lot of people with a grievance about Blair and no real interest in getting involved in practical politics, to vote a no hoper as leader and deselect everybody.
    It’s depressing.
    And we have to cope with being called quasi-Blairites

  41. @Richard

    To put more meat on the bones, the SDP was created by four senior and well known ex-Labour politicians. Some were household names and former ministers in Government.

    The Lib Dems have been thoroughly hollowed out and gutted. They have a tiny number of MPs and in many areas they have weak local parties. Many left of centre voters haven’t forgiven them for the Clegg-Cameron coalition.

    In short, they aren’t going anywhere, IMHO. If the shine comes off the new Government, they may come back a bit in their former strongholds, like the SW.
    However, in many Labour strongholds, Lib Dems are in danger of extinction. A declining Labour may well boost UKIP the most.

  42. @ Colin

    Somebody linked this last week

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05125/SN05125.pdf

    As you can see, all kinds of things happening, among these things like people dying, being born, and changing their opinion. These are all just to confuse us. There is also that ESRC funded study of the last hundred years of party membership (for all parties).

    Labour’s membership steadily declined during the Blair years, for various reasons, I suppose (not a single one). Then with Miliband there is a clear lift, although it did not continue after his election – I think it is the lefty LibDems.

    2015 gives a huge boost – and it is quite clearly linked to the slight left turn embodied in Corbyn, and it seems that it continues. According to YouGov, these are partly returnees, but also people who weren’t active and were Green leaning. Yougov also showed that membership in the English Heritage was five times as likely to be associated with the new entrants as Momentum, so you are wrong with Momentum – it is English Heritage that has the Labour Party in its grip, and shakes it until all opponents are fallen out.

    When I said yesterday or the day before the “different swarm” I meant these people. They grew up (or were young) just during the aftermath of the recession. They have a completely different belief system or rather – they express these beliefs (that have huge overlaps with others, including other parties) in a different vocabulary. Then you have the returnees who bring back the language of the 1980-1990s.

    Th whole thing can change with the split in the party, with a massive change in the environment (economy, social, etc), appearance of a new social movement.

    Just to say again: the people who entered the LP and support Corbyn are slightly older than the average age of the members, have higher educational background, they are less Londoners, but they are Southeners.

  43. Very exciting times now for Labour.

    Will be interesting to see how Owen Smith gets on; he thinks it is time for a fresh generation of men and women to take Labour into government.

  44. @Catmanjeff

    Sadly, I think you are correct.

    But I think the result ends the same as that graph I linked to – a split opposition that clears the road for a big Tory win in 2020 in our first past the post system.

  45. Owen Smith was said by Jeremy Corbyn to have handled his brief very effectively and with a lot of aplomb.

  46. Richard

    Are we going to have another Falklands war?

  47. @CR

    “Are we going to have another Falklands war?”

    History never repeats itself exactly. This time it could be Gibraltar.

  48. its certainly possible we could have another Falklands war.

    Our military has been subject to a lot of cuts by the present government.

  49. SYZYGY & LASZLO

    Thank you both.

    It seems that a major moment in LP’s history is approaching.

    Hilary Benn seemed sanguibe on DP today that the Membership were becoming disenchanted with Corbyn. I assume he is neither lying nor delusional. But of course he could be wrong.

    We will find out-a major crossroads in LP’s history would seem to be in prospect………….unless the PLP just say-oh well , we gave it a shot & failed-we’re all Confident about Jezza now.

    Can’t see that happening though-[snip]

  50. @CambridgeRachel

    Well if you look at the results:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

    Cons 42%
    Lab 28%
    SDP/Lib 25%

    then it was more the split opposition than the Falklands war that handed Thatcher

    ” the most decisive election victory since that of Labour in 1945.”

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