The Times tomorrow has fresh YouGov polling of Labour members suggesting Jeremy Corbyn is comfortably ahead of both challengers. Asked their first preference Jeremy Corbyn leads with 54% to Angela Eagle’s 21% and Own Smith’s 15%. Corbyn easily wins in a head-to-head run off against either – he beats Eagle by 58% to 34% and Smith by 56% to 34%.

The poll is of Labour members who joined before January 2016, so will be eligible to vote in the contest, but obviously doesn’t yet include people who sign up to be registered supporters in the short window this week. Sam Coates is tweeting more results.


232 Responses to “YouGov members poll shows Corbyn beating Eagle or Smith by 20+ points”

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  1. I started off in huge support of Corbyn. I liked (and still like) his policy platform.

    But he’s not a competent leader, and has no chance of carrying the country. And he let me (and 48%) of the population down over Brexit.

    He must go. He most reminds me of Oliver Cromwell of the late Commonwealth and early Protectorate: a well meaning leder with no idea how to govern.

    That said, neither Eagle nor Smith inspire the slightest confidence, and I’m damned if I can see who can do the job unless Neil Kinnock comes out of retirement!

  2. Oldnat

    You want coherent policies?! We can’t even do coherent internal elections

    Im well aware we got wiped out in Scotland and we deserved it, but its not all bad. Apart from the independence thing the SNP MPs are better labour MPs than most of the official labour MPs. We might be needing 172 decent candidates, do you think we could borrow some? If you got a few going spare that is

  3. Miserable Old Git

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be an impressive person but I think his time has not come yet.

    There are lots of good Labour MPs but I think they don’t want to stand in this particular leadership election.

  4. Valerie

    “The Scottish pound? Don’t we have those already?”

    No. Any more than we have a Northern Irish pound (they also have their own banknotes).

    Psychologically, though it’s an attractive idea for Scots to have continuity of the physical appearance of the currency.

    And in Dubai airport, you would get more for a Scottish note than an English one!

    The underpinning of any currency is, of course, much more important.

    Matters like a positive balance of payments in the economy, and a relatively small annual deficit would be important.

    Naturally, since rUK seems to have dismissed the concept of a currency union, there would seem to be little reason for an indy Scotland to accept much (if any) share of the UK debt, given that Scotland has been in credit for the last 30 years.

  5. @ MoG

    Corbyn and Cromwell is a wonderful comparison.

    For the latter – he actually changed the country, although with means that would be erased from textbooks for young children.

    About Corbyn – as he can’t change the country, he really can’t – is he a sign of a changed country? He has four years, and it is a lot of time. The youth is really not thinking in the same term as we do. They may adjust as they get older, but don’t bet on it.

    Ok, it was only 3,000 people in the pro-Corbyn march in Liverpool, but it was a different crowd. They spoke differently, in a way they behaved differently (all the young families, in particular) – just a different species.

    I don’t say that this species will survive the winter or that they won’t evolve, but they could just stay as they are, and become dominant. And it has actually nothing to do with Corbyn beyond being a symbol.

  6. Profhoward

    Steven kinnock should be in jail not sitting in the HoC

  7. Cambridge Rachel

    Sadly, I don’t think we are in a position to lend you any of our many competent politicians.

    Given the confusion and incoherence of English politics, can I suggest that you try to borrow some from the USA?

    They might suit your politics better – all of them thoroughly incompetent and incapable of working for the benefit of the people. :-)

  8. @ Laszlo

    That’s how I see it. A tipping point has been reached.. and the NEC elections are fundamental. It is essential to use the ‘awful time’ to effect change to the LP staff so that a future leader is not battling their undermining as well as everything else.

    I agree that JC (should he be re-elected leader) needs to add some more professional organisers to his team… and to keep the grassroots better informed.

    The aspect of this situation which the PLP has seemingly misunderstood is that as a result of the MPs’ behaviour, the Corbyn supporters believe that they have nothing to lose… and the more stories that they are told about intimidation or mismanagement, seems to only strengthen their resolve.

    Good news that John McDonnell is carrying on with his job regardless. He has made a policy announcement for a Bank of the North and £500 bn post-brexit fiscal stimulus which rather counters the no policies charge.

    It is still an enormous surprise that an informal meeting in a pub called with 24h notice attracted 40 people to defend Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. This is a very different experience.

  9. Oldnat

    But there was a study done that showed that Congress voted against public opinion in 97% of cases. I think that’s not good enough for the English, we want 100% non representation

  10. @ Syzygy

    Yes, more or less. It is really a different swarm. Are they isolated or representative of the future or in any way of today? I really don’t know. But they are refreshing, and not the silly media reports about them (although it is a possibility that I haven’t met them in large numbers).

    I agree on McDonnell, although I would have liked to see more about the “how”, the “criteria”. So, it is not wasted. someone (perhaps @ Barbazero ? Had some good pointers)

    In any case, the government will have to introduce a fiscal stimulus .

    Unlike most people here, I have a significant trust in the LP, simply because the social basis is there for them.

  11. @ Syzygy

    Sorry, I didn’t reflect on your other points, but I consider them administrative matters enabled by the elections within the LP. It is some fight, if the Corbyinista wins, but not much.

    What is important – it has to be done, and have a core both in the bureaucracy and in the political wing of the party.

    And just one word (well, five): it can go horribly wrong.

  12. Cambridge Rachel

    “It is still an enormous surprise that an informal meeting in a pub called with 24h notice attracted 40 people to defend Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. This is a very different experience.”

    Welcome to modern politics!

    While party apparatchiks of the old party way of thinking did their best to avoid any involvement of actual people in the political process, the rise of so-called “single issue” campaigns should have alerted them to the reality that politics does actually matter to many people.

    Attending boring branch meetings doesn’t feature highly on most folks’ agendas. Their future does.

  13. @ OldNat

    It was Syzygy not CambridgeRachel.

  14. Cambridge Rachel

    Loved you response re US Congress. Must quote that to my US citizen son. He is unsure as to whether he will vote Libertarian or Green (if both are on the ballot in NC).

  15. Laszlo

    “It was Syzygy not CambridgeRachel.”

    Oops – but I like them both, so I’m not that upset about confusing them. :-)

  16. @ Oldnat

    ‘Oops – but I like them both, so I’m not that upset about confusing them. :-)’

    That is certainly high praise but will CR mind being interchangeable :)

  17. Old Nat
    These threads are about polling? You could have fooled me.
    It seems to be the realm of fantasists and acolytes of JC, the new messiah. And of course Saint Nicola has her own band of followers.
    But polling? Pull the other one, apart from a few honourable exceptions.
    Poor AW must be in despair.

  18. @ Laszlo

    ‘And just one word (well, five): it can go horribly wrong.’

    Yes. I am very aware of that… but as I say, the PLP have jumped off the cliff and there is no realistic prospect of turning back for those of the different swarm.

  19. @ Oldnat

    Wise words and apposite:

    ‘Attending boring branch meetings doesn’t feature highly on most folks’ agendas. Their future does.’

  20. Valerie

    I’m not sure what your post refers to, but I suspect that lots of people have “fooled you”, since you seem to have voted the way you have said.

    I don’t mind if Anthony is “in despair” or not. It is entirely in hid hands to moderate discussions on here.

    Personally, I wish he was more “hands on” as he used to be, but I suspect that he has better things to do with his time.

  21. “he beats Eagle by 58% to 34% and Smith by 56% to 34%”

    lolz

    The PLP’s claimed selling point is they’re more in touch with reality but the reality they’re in touch with is c. 2001.

    They really need removing.

  22. RIP The Labour Party then?

    What will they call it when the Central Committee & the Politburo have been cleansed ?

    And what will the “different swarm” ( what an evocative term) do when its new MPs are rejected in numbers at the next GE by the “old swarm” of Middle England -North & South?

    Buy more banners & march more marches in rage & frustration at the ignorance of both the proletariat and the bourgeoisie.

    And what of the Centre Left?. Will it die too – silently , with a whimper?

    I suspect not.

  23. @Cambridgerachel – “The issue is democracy, if corbyn doesn’t win then democracy in the labour party is over. You are either for democracy or you are against. All the other arguments are distractions”

    What an extraordinarily silly thing to say. If Corbyn doesn’t win, it will be because of a democratic vote of the membership.

    What you are saying is that only your candidate should win, as all other results are undemocratic.

    I’m afraid that really isn’t how democracy works.

  24. @Mrjones – “The PLP’s claimed selling point is they’re more in touch with reality but the reality they’re in touch with is c. 2001.”

    Think carefully about what you’ve just said.

    this was a poll of party members, not voters. Labour will be slaughtered in the country with Corbyn. Only in the online havens will his accolytes win.

  25. ………………and now in Germany-by a 17-year-old Afghan who travelled as a refugee to Germany alone .

    How much more of this do the political elite of Europe imagine will be tolerated? How much “putting up with” for the sake of others is expected before they start to ask -“what about us though” ?

    And when the New Messiahs stand on their rostrums-the one who pleads for Brotherhood , and the one who demands Separation-which will get the applause?

  26. CR: “We might be needing 172 decent candidates”

    If, post Corbyn re-election, those 172 MPs are left in no doubt by their CLPs that they will be deselected, then it seems to me that they have two choices: accept that they will be redundant in 2020 and turn their thoughts to another career; or decide to stick with politics and fight the next election under another party label.

    For those who choose to fight again, the question will be: start a new party or join an existing one?

    If enough of them (I think it’s 117, but others will correct me) start a new party, as I understand it, they will become the official opposition. That will give them plenty of exposure before the next election, and the opportunity to prove themselves effective, well-organised, coherent etc.

    Alternatively, if 113 or so join the LDs, then the LDs will become the new opposition. Given that the rebel MPs’ reelection chances will depend on appealing to electors of a centrist persuasion, that might be the better bet.

    I can’t recall any polling data on these options. But given the disillusionment with ‘politics as usual’ evidenced by the referendum, I’d have thought there would be considerable support for such a party. it could be the English equivalent of the SNP, but without the nationalist label.

    Or will Labour MPs due for the chop just go gently into that dark night?

  27. Not sure if this has been covered, but of that 54% Corbyn 1st round support, that’s 41% ‘definitely’ and 13% ‘probably’ – for those that want to clutch at straws. As to whether those 13% are truly winnable, does anyone know how these numbers compare to last year’s leadership election?

    I’m not sure how many of the 2nd round 56% (58% if against Eagle) are definites and probables as The Times article didn’t say.

  28. I’m not surprised to see Corbyn so far ahead. I’m convinced the leadership election is really a referendum on the popularity of the PLP amongst the Labour base, and the PLP is extremely unpopular. I not hugely convinced the PLP is very popular with voters in general, which would limit the viability of any proposed split.

    I’m not sure what the solution is.

  29. I see my post is in moderation.
    I dare you to moderate Cromwell’s speech.

  30. The Labour leader in Scotland is very anti-Corbyn and she has appointed Ian Murray Scotland’s only Labour MP as ‘Westminster person[?]’ in her shadow cabinet. Murray resigned from Corbyn’s cabinet.

    If Corbyn wins I would think it is very likely that Scottish Labour will break with UK Labour and then may split because the deputy leader Alex Rowley is pro-Corbyn.

    So we might have two Labour parties in Scotland:

    1. Scottish Labour (Dugdale & Murray)
    2. UK Labour still affiliated to Corbyn’s Labour (Rowley & Findlay)

    Or Labour in Scotland will dissipate with pro-EU, indy leaning going to SNP. Others to LibDems. I doubt any would join the Tories.

  31. Alec, it really does feel weird being trapped in a group that doesn’t seem able to comprehend this.

    Welsh Labour and Scottish Labour may well declare UDI. LPNI are strange because they’re very pro-Jez, despite openly defying the party.

  32. Mpst of you on here are victims of the corporate media. Studie show that he is not reported fairly, and any old story is altered to show him in a bad light. That does indeed make it diffucult for him to become PM, but any even mildly left leaning politician (which describes Corbyn, if you compare him with other Labour leaders before Kinnock) would suffer the same.

  33. Somerjohn

    “it could be the English equivalent of the SNP, but without the National label.”

    I have slightly re-written your statement, to reflect that the SNP does not use the ‘-ist’. Many people, when they do add these three letters, do so with derogatory intent.

  34. I’m not sure why Corbyn can’t win an election on his policies

    1. No Trident
    2. No bombing Syria
    3. No austerity
    4. No tuition fees
    5. Keep NHS public

    The SNP have identical policies and they have won two elections in two years in Scotland. Why shouldn’t Corbyn win in the UK?

  35. Couper 2802

    Because the UK bails out Scotland at the expense of England and Wales. It doesn’t quite work if you extend the Barnett formula etc to the whole of the UK!

  36. Alec

    Into the valley of death they go, ordered by Lord Corbygan.

  37. @ Colin

    “RIP The Labour Party then?”

    My view (which is not particularly important) that the left can only be in government in coalition, so the LP is unlikely to win with any leader.

    I’m not attracted to Corbyn in any way, but when Owen Smith said that he was absent at the Welfare Bill because he didn’t want Labour to appear soft on welfare – then really he is saying that his (their) electoral basis is those who for some reason wouldn’t vote for the Conservative Party, but effectively conservatives.

    Essentially the Miliband coalition that got 30% is falling apart. I guess that the block that the PLP represents is the smaller part of it.

  38. “but any even mildly left leaning politician (which describes Corbyn, if you compare him with other Labour leaders before Kinnock)”

    Doesn’t this post above beautifully demonstrate the wilful blindness of fervent Corbyn supporters to their position?

    And if he doesn’t become PM one day, it will of course be the media, the PLP, and everyone else’s fault. How dare they be pragmatic rather than ideological, pacifist, Latin American dictator-supporting good Labour members?

  39. Maybe the time has come to recognise the fact that all parties are coalitions and that oppositions as well as governments could be coalitions. Personally I would like a situation where the leader of the opposition could be a liberal democrat or someone from SNP or Greens as well as from Labour, they would have an agreed platform across a majority of opposition MPs and within that there would be a lot of free votes where parties or even MPs could take their own line. This situation would have various virtues but probably doesn’t suit the ambitions and ways of thought of MPs or the majority of voters.

    So for the moment we need to start from the position that Corbyn is almost certainly going to win. (That’s one useful thing the polling gives us). So the task of whoever opposes him is to a) deliver their troops with honour into the Corbyn fold when he triumphs b) extract a promise of a kind of leadership (which to his credit Corbyn seems willing to provide) where there is a concentration on agreed essentials (more houses, new economics or whatever) and a willingness to allow individual votes on things which are not agreed c) an injection of talent and competence such as it is into the Corbyn ranks and d) probably some kind of drastic reform of the labour party apparatus – I don’t know anything about it but such evidence as I have of its behaviour suggests that it is devious, incompetent and out of touch.

    It’s not where I would have started. Corbyn seems to me a kind of secular saint and as such I would much rather have him speaking truth to power than being in power himself. (Those in power seem to me to need a touch of evil in their make-up but preferably not to the same degree as Boris. Effective saints like Mandela are vanishingly rare). But as we are stuck with him we have to make the best of it. “Corbyn means Corbyn” in the currently fashionable jargon.

    Writing this post I have come to the conclusion that I will vote against him. This is in the poll-based conviction that he will win and that a sizeable ‘anti’ vote is necessary to ensure the kind of compromise and focus on the essentials that we need. In other words we mustn’t get trapped in the position of ‘either Corbyn or not Corbyn’ – a law of the excluded middle that is as dangerous as the passion for the law of identity among the Brexiteers.

  40. Fascinated byt some of the posts on here. Some clearly have difficulty distinguishing between father & son (it’s NEIL Kinnock who sits in the Lords), some have difficulty seeing the difference between party members and ordinary voters.
    Labour’s ‘good’ performance in 2015 was in the areas they already held; the ‘poor’ performance was in the areas they needed to win. That hasn’t changed – in fact Labour’s appeal to those who voted Tory or UKIP last time has gone down significantly.
    To quote one MP who, despite agreeing with many of his views, resigned her position recently – “Jeremy isn’t even a team player, never mind a team leader”. Announcing policy decisions without any discussion, failing to link up with shadow ministers before speaking on their subjects, not ‘chatting and listening’ to the rank-and-file MP’s, etc etc.
    If the MP’s he leads don’t support him, if the ordinary voters won’t vote for him – whaty use is he? I’m sure he can carry a banner and protest, but that’s not actually his job.

  41. I am surprised none of you mentioned the Peter Mandelson lecture at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy on 14th July 2016 where he blamed New Labour for Brexit. Sound quality not excellent but here is a audio recording of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsbKZHKkeLE

  42. BT SAYS… @ Couper 2802
    Because the UK bails out Scotland at the expense of England and Wales. It doesn’t quite work if you extend the Barnett formula etc to the whole of the UK!

    1. The Barnett formula applies to Wales & NI as well as Scotland.

    2. The English equivalent is “UK” projects like the London Olympics, London Crossrail & English HS2.

    3. If Barnett is such a great deal for Scotland, why are Westminster so reluctant to agree to replace it with FFA?

  43. Barbazenzero

    3. Because SNP administration still won’t use the powers the Smith Commission (implementation) has given them, so why extend further until then.

    The fact is, they don’t want to use them or get FFA before Independence because the precariousness of their economic position will be exposed. Once this genie is out of the bottle, support for Independence will be much harder.

  44. @Charles: I think your tactical sense is likely off. I think the scenario that is most likely to result in a Labour government in 2020 is a Corbyn victory so overwhelming that the PLP decide to knuckle down and start using their experience of the dark arts to attack the tories rather than Corbyn. Anything that makes them think they’ve still got a chance of unseating him just means we have to go through this all again in 6 or 12 months time, or means they think they can take a decent chunk of party members with them if they abandon ship.

  45. If you look at the tweet linked by Anthony, you will see that Corbyn’s approval went up significantly among the members. This is the reality, even if it’s the valley of death, and no pray helps.

  46. @LIZH

    Well, Mandelson WAS New Labour. He was the prime mover behind the whole idea. Is he therefore blaming himself?

  47. @arethosemyfeet You may well be right and I will ponder my vote in the secure conviction that it will not make a blind bit of difference. On the objective, however I still think that the labour party can’t cohere around a Corbyn position or an anti-Corbyn position. So it has to decide on something that it can cohere around, around, allow a lot of freedom on other matters, and focus relentlessly on the key things it can agree it wants to achieve. The only alternative is to split and then we are in for Tories for a long, long time.

    As for the dark arts of the PLP, I wonder if they have any arts at all.

  48. BARBAZENZERO

    “The English equivalent is “UK” projects like the London Olympics, London Crossrail & English HS2”

    How are the London Olympics, London Crossrail and a faster train to London, ENGLISH equivalents? Not much there for Stoke, Hull, Sunderland, and the hundreds of other English towns that voted Leave.

    Curious isn’t it that the places that get investment, London and Scotland via Barnett, voted for the status quo while virtually everywhere else voted Leave.

    England is a lot more than London.

  49. LASZLO

    But it all depends what you mean by “the Left” doesn’t it?

    I mean isn’t that exactly the question which has torn the Labour Party in two?.

    And not for the first time.

    Perhaps its destiny is to go on lurching from one definition to the other. Hating its MPs when it wins elections & hating its Members when it loses them.

    I know that people like Owen Smith swear they will never let Labour split. But without it how are they ever going to convert the ideological purity of the Leadership mandating electorate to the idea of pragmatism in order to gain power?

    They will merely have swopped places with Corbyn-perched on a corner of their backbenches , rebelling & disagreeing & voting against their own Party time after time?

    You need to be an ironclad purist to live that life-as Corbyn can explain to them.

  50. BT SAYS…
    Because SNP administration still won’t use the powers the Smith Commission (implementation) has given them, so why extend further until then.

    You will doubtless recall that every amendment proposed by the SNP to the latest Scotland Act was voted down by the unionists. It was accepted by Holyrood only because it was less awful than previous Scotland Acts. The powers available include neither Corporation Tax nor Excise duties. Without these, using the income tax powers on any significant scale would be unbalanced to put it mildly.

    But that isn’t the point. If Westminster wanted to remove Barnett it could do so very easily by offering the devolved administrations FFA, with mutually agreed “service charges” for “UK” functions like the FCO.

    Why do you think the Treasury are so reluctant to open their books to the scrutiny which would be needed to achieve this?

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