The Times tomorrow has fresh YouGov polling of Labour members suggesting Jeremy Corbyn is comfortably ahead of both challengers. Asked their first preference Jeremy Corbyn leads with 54% to Angela Eagle’s 21% and Own Smith’s 15%. Corbyn easily wins in a head-to-head run off against either – he beats Eagle by 58% to 34% and Smith by 56% to 34%.

The poll is of Labour members who joined before January 2016, so will be eligible to vote in the contest, but obviously doesn’t yet include people who sign up to be registered supporters in the short window this week. Sam Coates is tweeting more results.


232 Responses to “YouGov members poll shows Corbyn beating Eagle or Smith by 20+ points”

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  1. I can stop being depressed now

  2. Only until May 2020. Then you can go to bed for the next five years.

  3. It’s going to be interesting to see how English politics develops.

    Personally, I think it’s something to do with the over emotional way that southerners react to no longer being the centre of the universe. The same thing can be observed by looking at Rome.

    If only the English had stuck with being part of Cnut’s Nordic empire, you would have been so much happier! :-)

  4. Alec

    The issue is democracy, if corbyn doesn’t win then democracy in the labour party is over. You are either for democracy or you are against. All the other arguments are distractions

  5. Anthony Wells: do you know if polls of party members are accurate, based on past precedent?

  6. There was an article in New Statesman (I can’t find it now) a few months ago that discussed the changes in English politics – I thought it was very good, although it lacked details and data. This actually reinforces it.

    Politics, not in terms of left, right, centre and other dimensions, but how it is actually conducted at grassroots is changing.

    Hence most of the arguments put out about the candidates of the LP are pretty meaningless. The Tories, as usual, were better, and didn’t risk it, but it will catch up with them too.

  7. @ CR

    Absolutely in a nutshell. Corbyn is no longer the issue. This is about democracy (and its opposite).

  8. ProfHoward

    I have seen comments from psephologists that YG polls of party members have been remarkably accurate in the past.

  9. Democracy requires a functioning party system with a non-incompetent leader of the opposition.

  10. If I recall correctly, Yougov called the last leadership election very closely I think.

  11. Corbyn will walk it, all the betting markets know it. To be honest, he needs to win or democracy and members mean nothing anymore.

  12. Hawthorn

    Democracy requires that the people have a voice and that its listened to. It doesn’t need a party system its just convenient.

  13. CambridgeRachel

    Labour voters (as opposed to self-indulgent party members) have made their view of Corbyn crystal clear. They are the ones who are supposed to be represented.

  14. It’ll be interesting to see how the eventual result differs, as well as the breakdown of supporters. There may be a last minute surge of Eagle/Smith voters.

    I mean, you can’t rule it out.

  15. Hawthorn

    “Democracy requires a functioning party system with a non-incompetent leader of the opposition.”

    Isn’t that a rather dated assumption, based on the Westminster tradition of there being only two major parties?

    Democracy flourishes in many places where there are multiple opposition parties, any of whom can hold the government to account.

    Since “the Opposition” (by definition) can’t normally defeat the governing party/coalition, then their role is to challenge legislation on its detail, and improve it, where possible.

    In Westminster, at the moment, there is an “official Opposition” which is incapable of opposing, since so many of its members support government policy, and vote against its own leadership.

    Effective opposition (in terms of arguments) comes from the smaller parties. Though I would also suggest that the Westminster FPTP system negates democracy in the first place.

  16. I’ve always thought of myself as being ‘for democracy’, but now I wonder about all the positions I interact with which aren’t directly elected. Pretty much all of them, in fact. Delivery drivers, policemen, nurses, cashiers….all sorts. It’s very troubling.

  17. Thank you Old Nat for your reply. If true then Owen and/or Angela do have their work cut out. That’ said, the battle has not begun yet so it is early days.

  18. Wood

    But the policeman and nurses work within a system that is determined by democratically elected people.

    Sorry. That’s the system in Scotland, but may not be where you live.

  19. So, assuming Corbyn wins comfortably against Eagle / Smith, what do Labour peeps on here think the 172 Lab MPs who expressed ‘no confidence’ in the leader will do?

    How many will:
    a) Unite behind Corbyn
    b) Form a new party – SDP Mark II
    c) Join the LDs
    d) Join the Tories
    e) None of the above?

  20. Corbyn also increased his favorability ratings from +3 to +14 which is a real kick in the teeth for the media campaign against him. I wonder if this isn’t a respect for the underdog effect?

  21. @OLDNAT

    I suppose Spire Healthcare shareholders do vote for things….therefore democracy. I am reassured, thankyou.

  22. @Prof Howard

    “Thank you Old Nat for your reply. If true then Owen and/or Angela do have their work cut out. That’ said, the battle has not begun yet so it is early days.”

    If one of Owen or Eagle drops out they will both lose the right to potentially benefit from Second Preference votes. It’s actually more difficult for Corbyn to win in a 3-way contest than in a head to head challenge.

  23. @ProfHoward

    Polls of party members are incredibly accurate I remember seeing an article about it recently

  24. David

    They won’t be joining the libdems, firstly the libdems are against trident, their members have decided that. Which brings me to the second point, the libdems are a very Democratic party, Labour Rebels wouldn’t like it

  25. It’s not clear whether this has any significance at all, but the sole Labour MP from Scotland, having resigned from the UK Shadow Cabinet, has been appointed to the SLab shadow team.

    At least, theoretically, for the first time the SLab Westminster PLP (1 person) is subject to the authority of the SLab leader, and not the UK Lab leader.

  26. Wood

    Spire Healthcare sounds just like Westminster – money talks. :-)

  27. David, there are at least 30 MPs that have nothing to lose in the event of a corbyn win, so an sdp mark 2 is quite likely I would think. Problem is that the shenigans have riled up the members so much that the bloodletting could easily go too far

  28. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Corbyn also increased his favorability ratings from +3 to +14 which is a real kick in the teeth for the media campaign against him. I wonder if this isn’t a respect for the underdog effect?

    It’s difficult to know. The previous poll appeared to consist almost entirely of panellists who were members at the time of the last leadership election – 94% gave details of who their first preference had been. Presumably YouGov have since updated their records to include people who joined between September and January – including maybe quite a few £3 voters who converted. So it may not be the same population.

  29. I think that if Corbyn were to win then the Labour MPs would continue in Labour. But I think they would look to the next chance to stand against him.

    Lisa Nandy is said to be a very impressive figure, among Labour MPs.

  30. RICH (fpt)

    Liverpool really is an awful place for political debate, I know it well. You could pin a red rosette on a skunk and they would vote for it.

    I’ve seen this sort of thing said very often[1], when even the most desultory googling would show you that Liverpool was under Lib Dem control as recently as 2010:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_City_Council#Leaders_and_Control_.281974.E2.80.932012.29

    and the 12 years before. Indeed since its formation under current boundaries in 1974, Labour has only had absolute control for 11 years or so and before 1974 control was also far from uniform.

    Your grandad must have been thinking of Manchester[2]. Or it shows the power of stereotype over reality.

    [1] Most recently by YOU here on 30 June. So you going to get the same reply all over again until you learn something.

    It’s not just you of course. A fortnight before, in an extraordinary article in the Guardian:

    http://www.theguardian.com/membership/ng-interactive/2016/jun/16/guardian-labour-liverpool-ewen-macaskill

    they announced that they were going to send up a reporter to the city to discover what was going on, with all the condescension of a Great White Chief being sent into Darkest Africa (indeed the article was basically asking for native bearers to meet them at Lime Street). This also claimed that Liverpool was a ‘long-term bastion of the Left’. (He’s also wrong about Glasgow).

    [2] Of which it has been said that its motto Concilio et Labore translates as ‘The Council is always Labour’.

  31. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    And I can start being depressed. With that old beardie Labour is as good as dead.

  32. @DAVID CARROD

    Hopefully the MPs will all join the Lib-Dems. That is my earnest hope.
    Forming a new SDP is unlikely to work in this day and age, given UKIP’s menacing presence.

  33. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    “They won’t be joining the libdems, firstly the libdems are against trident, their members have decided that. Which brings me to the second point, the libdems are a very Democratic party, Labour Rebels wouldn’t like it.”

    There is more than Trident in politics. The rest of your comment is ridiculous.

  34. TANCRED

    I heard that the MPs left the hustings today with a spring in their step. I think they will challenge Jeremy Corbyn again if they lose this time.

  35. Lisa Nandy – one of the Labour Party’s rising stars – calling today for Smith because he has real socialist valies, a plan, no personal agenda, and draws on all parts of the Labour party.

  36. @WOOD

    Well, start with your boss – he wasn’t elected, and neither was his boss, and so on. Democracy is a means of running a country with the least risk of disorder and bloodshed – that’s all. In a nation of idiots, democracy will bring idiotic policies, while in a nation of intelligent people you will have intelligent policies – or so one hopes. Unfortunately it’s not quite as clear cut as that.
    I’m not so much a democrat as a believer in ‘getting things right’. The two don’t always come hand in hand.

  37. @Tancred

    “Hopefully the MPs will all join the Lib-Dems. That is my earnest hope.”

    The core rebels (harder core Blairities) gave lurched so far to the right in recent years that the logical next step is to join the Tories, not the LDs.

  38. Profhoward

    Im sure they will challenge JC again, they have already said so, again and again no matter how long it takes. But hopefully next time they will have a decent candidate and do things in the proper way.

  39. @Prof Howard

    “Lisa Nandy – one of the Labour Party’s rising stars – calling today for Smith because he has real socialist valies, a plan, no personal agenda, and draws on all parts of the Labour party.”

    Steady on! He has just voted for renewing Trident. He abstained on welfare cuts and he won’t tell anyone what his views were on Iraq in 2003. Not a Blairite, granted. But hardly the qualifications of a socialist.

  40. Lisa Nandy said that in a meeting with John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn they made it clear they aren’t willing or able or motivated to unite the party.

    She says that – for the sake of her constituents – its important that this situation cannot continue.

  41. I’ve yet to meet any labour members who don’t have buyers’ remorse about voting for JC. They can’t believe his incompetence, his intransigence and his egoism. My fear is his legacy will be the destruction of the Labour Party.

  42. RAF

    I heard may Labour MPs explain that there isn’t any reason why a socialist should vote against renewing Trident. Some very socialist regimes have had them. For him, he has explained, he wants to dismantle the nuclear situation multilaterally.

  43. Cambridge Rachel

    English politics confuses me.

    What is it that that makes your party a “party” in the sense of having a coherent policy for the future of England & Wales?

    (Labour is already an irrelevance in two of the polities of the UK).

  44. @ Roger Mexico

    Thanks for a much better explanation than I would have given.

    I live in a mixed area of middle (upper middle) and working class area, with some ethnicity, but not much, yet average for the city. Mostly Labour with some green and LibDem and a few Cons. The oddity is the high level of agreement on certain issues (not the S*n, but social issues, so rather civilised).

    People are also freely exchanging views about rather sensitive issues, so really like a village …

  45. Valerie I think it will depend a lot on how well the challenger puts his/her case.

    I think Angela would do a competent job.

    Owen is more of a risk – he is a little inexperienced – but he may have a certain charisma and freshness that Angela lacks.

  46. For most Labour MPs, defecting from the LP is taking an enormous personal risk with their future careers… but I suppose that it would settle the question of their mandate. If they win, we would establish that it was indeed the individual who was elected to represent the constituency, and if they lose, it was the LP label.

    Best estimates are between 25 and 50 MPs who might give up the Labour whip. The next question would be whether they sit as SDP2, independents or join the LD/Tories. The consensus among the cognoscenti is that they fit better with the Blues than the yellows… so Mrs May may see her majority improve.

  47. Valerie

    You might not meet such people but this poll shows they exist and are more numerous that the sort you meet

  48. Valerie

    “I’ve yet to meet any labour members who don’t have buyers’ remorse about voting for JC. ”

    Given the YG poll, doesn’t that suggest that your exposure to Lab members is somewhat atypical?

    Your comment is so similar to “all the folk in the pub tonight, thought X” Why would you post that on a polling site?

  49. The Scottish pound?
    Don’t we have those already – the bank notes are different, at least they were last time I was in Scotland.

  50. For Labour people

    There is a process of deselection. It is not immediate, but for the next election, so the MP carries on and has the same rights as any other MP.

    If the next elections is in 2020, it is really a living hell.

    However, the MPs can’t break off for two reasons. One is that it would blow away their cover (172, when it is probably about 70), and losing all the benefits of the party (not personal!).

    So – yes, for the time being awful.

    The NEC elections are very important – control on the central administration.

    Corbyn can’t step aside – so …

    I don’t know if any of this is good or bad, but this is the reality.

    Oddly one of the missing bit is the core around JC – it could be my misinterpretation of the situation. But it is needed for them if they want to play the game.

    However, for the time being, in a suppressed way, I keep in mind that politics, the way it is conducted, has changed.

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