ICM have a new poll in the Sun on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 4%(nc). This is the first poll conducted since Theresa May became Prime Minister, so may be expected to show a typical “new leader” bounce in government support (when Brown took over in 2007 and Major took over in 1990 the governing party went from being behind to having double-digit leads). The Tory lead is up a little, but not outside the normal margin of error, that said ICM’s previous poll already had an eight point Tory lead, so they were already at a high base.

ICM also did some hypothetical voting intention questions asking about varous leader match-ups. A control question, asking how people would vote if Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn were still leader at the general election has voting intention figures of CON 43%, LAB 28%, suggesting either a significant positive effect from mentioning May or a negative effect from mentioning Corbyn.

Asking how people would vote if Owen Smith or Angela Eagle were Labour leader does not offer any improvement. With Eagle the figures would be CON 43%, LAB 26%. With Smith the figures would be CON 42%, LAB 27%. I should add a heavy caveat here – hypothetical polls like this are popular in advance of leadership elections, but how useful they are is a different question. Respondents don’t necessarily know what the alternative candidates stand for, what they will do or announce, how they may or may not change the party. I add those caveats when the alternative leaders are well known to the public, like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson and so on. In the case of someone who is as unknown to the general public as Owen Smith, I expect most don’t know who he is or what he even looks like. Nevertheless, the figures will be influential in the debate – rightly or wrongly Corbyn’s supporters within the Labour party will now be able to say there is no polling evidence that his rivals would do any better.

Note that ComRes also have a poll in the Independent/Sunday Mirror, but they are not currently publishing any voting intention figures while they review methods.


481 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 39, LAB 29, LD 9, UKIP 14”

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  1. LASZLO

    @”So, if I can believe SkyNews, nothing is learnt from Chilcot as the PM is happy to use nuclear weapons as a preemptive measure. It is probably some votes.”

    She did not use the word “pre-emptive” . Neither did Sky-which reports the question as :-

    ” “Can we cut to the chase? Is she personally prepared to authorise a nuclear strike that can kill a hundred thousand innocent men, women and children?”

    and the reply as :-
    ” “Yes – and I have to say to you, the whole point of a deterrent is that our enemies need to know that we would be prepared to.”

    I think we can all assume that the circumstances in which a UK PM would consider using nuclear weapons in a first strike are unimaginable.

    But-as she says-if you wish to effectively deter , you must be prepared to retaliate-as the Chair of the Defence Select Committee so eloquently exampled with his reference to Chemical Weapons in WW2

  2. More interesting Irish news, Enda Kelly has said that the possibility of a border poll should be included in EU/UK Brexit negotiations.

  3. Ludlownewboy

    “But am I wrong in believing UK fishing waters were substantially reduced by the EU Fisheries Policy?”

    Well, yes.

    The Common Fisheries Policy did nothing to reduce any member state’s contiguous or exclusive economic zones.

    There are exceptions to the CFP rules governing who can fish where (though these run out in 2022) –

    “In the waters up to 12 nautical miles from the coasts of the EU countries access can be limited by the EU country to vessels and fisheries that traditionally fish in those waters from adjacent ports

    In the waters up to 100 nautical miles from the coasts of Europe’s outermost regions access can be restricted to vessels registered in the ports of these territories and to vessels that traditionally fish in those waters.”

    Any vessel which is registered as part of the EU fishing fleet has equal access to all EU waters, so Grimsby fishermen (as long as they observe the conservation rules) can fish in what were formerly the preserves of the French, Spanish, Italian, or Greek fleets.

    In that sense, the “UK fishing waters” have expanded under the EU – not reduced.

  4. Hireton

    “More interesting Irish news, Enda Kelly has said that the possibility of a border poll should be included in EU/UK Brexit negotiations.”

    Presumably he will raise that at this week’s Extraordinary BIC Summit in Cardiff this week.

    The communique from it might be interesting – though I doubt that it will get much (if any) coverage in the London-centric media.

  5. @Colin

    “I think we can all assume that the circumstances in which a UK PM would consider using nuclear weapons in a first strike are unimaginable.”

    That seems to be a very dangerous assumption.

  6. I give May 24 months at best. Increasingly looks like a caretaker administration, with the added bonus of a bloodthirsty wannabe killer in charge.

  7. CANDY

    @”Things arn’t good in euroland.”

    The booing today of the French PM in Nice ( and the clapping of Emergency Services representatives) is another indicator to add to the many stresses & strains in the EU.

    If French voters decide that Nice is the last time they will tolerate inadequate security against immigrant groups who refuse to integrate & inflict death & terror on French people, then the EU may be in for its second shockwave from voters.

    Meanwhile the zealot guardians of the Ever Closer Union Flame at the Commission & Parliament are now faced with a lonely Merkel trying to slow a process which she knows lacks a popular mandate.

  8. Bearing in mind that Nice is ne of the most right-wing cities in France with a sizable FN support base, I should not necessarily read too much into the booing.

  9. Leaving the EU will substantially reduce the size of the fisheries the UK has access too. Drastically so should Scotland decide it wants independence as well.

    The UK was a fishing nation not because it had undisputed access to the fisheries around it, but because we didn’t care about territorial fisheries. We got away with it due to be the unrivalled naval power, or rather being seen as one. Right up until the Cod Wars punctured this, and Iceland saw us off from their fisheries by calling our bluff.

    Part of the drive towards EEC membership came from this, as we needed access to fisheries. Without the EEC, it would have been an economic disaster with a hard collapse of the fishing industry after the Cod Wars.

    I assume that the Brexit plan is that Europe will obviously let us continue to have access to their fisheries because we are the Mighty British Empire.

  10. Given that the UK is spending money on WMD, with the leader being prepared to use them, perhaps there is a moral (if not practical) case for regime change.

    Good job for May that we don’t have much oil any more. ????

  11. The ???? should have been ;)

  12. Good evening all from a tropical evening here in rural Hampshire.

    On the Nukes…What do we need them for? Who is going to attack us that would warrant us to attack them with our Nukes? Surely our 3 subs and small amount of Nukes aren’t a deterrent against the largest nuke power on the planet, Russia? Seriously for the UK and France to have nukes it is more to do with being a member of a prestige vanity club.

    When it comes to Mutual assured destruction (MAD) then only the Russians and the USA can claim that title so our small amount of Nukes are worthless in this context so again I ask, who are we deterring?

    China, India, Pakistan, Israel will never attack us with Nukes and if any of them did then I don’t think the USA would sit back…., North Korea is full of bluster and funny news readers and the UK ain’t even on their radar so again who are we deterring?

    The majority of Parliament disagrees with ol Corby but mark my words, history will prove him right.

  13. ” “Times have changed and we should learn to live with terrorism. We have to show solidarity and collective calm. ”

    Manuel Vals.

    No wonder he got booed

  14. COLIN

    ” “Times have changed and we should learn to live with terrorism. We have to show solidarity and collective calm. ”

    I always thought England did show collective calm during the years it suffered IRA terrorism – apart from its police randomly stitching up Irish folk for bombings they had nothing to do with, of course.

  15. COLIN
    That wee French President is on his last legs. He can’t even control a couple of tractors and carrot peelers from holding up the Parisian rush hour let alone tackle terrorism.

  16. HAWTHORN

    @”Bearing in mind that Nice is ne of the most right-wing cities in France with a sizable FN support base, I should not necessarily read too much into the booing.”

    This is the classic response of those who fail to understand the relationship between chicken & egg.

    The sort of people who will be so shocked , surprised & horrified if Le Pen becomes The President of France.

  17. ALLAN

    He is .

  18. I really don’t want to make a running commentary on this – but this MP accuses Corbyn (sometimes rightly) with all kinds of incompetence and it is picked up by the media. Now she chose to blame someone, instead of taking the responsibility.

    I don’t think it will be enough for saving her from deselection (after her various untrue statements).

    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/angela-eagle-deeply-sorry-after-11631175

  19. Colin

    “This is the classic response of those who fail to understand the relationship between chicken & egg.”

    I thought everyone knew the relationship by now.

    Through evolution, a dinosaur egg developed to be a little more chicken-like, and eventually natural selection produced what we now call chickens (or Labour MPs).

  20. Dunno why peeps are worried about fishing and stuff, when the real issue dominating the debates on the EU is plain to see: Sovereignty.

    Nowhere was this better exemplified than on the doorstep. Honestly, it was brutal. Armies of campaigners would try and talk about immigration, but the public would not wear it. They were clear, they only wanted some cosmetic tweaking of Free Movement, and what they really wanted to talk about, wax Sovereignty. And hedgerows…

    On the deterrence thing. What s it about Indy peeps that makes them keep arguing that peeps in favour of the nuclear deterrent must somehow be supportive of lots of death and destruction.

    The point of the deterrent is to stop this destruction by detering others. It’s the people want to get rid of the deterrent who are a bit more comfortable with the idea of others visiting destruction unchecked…

  21. Who’d be an MP in Liverpool. Scousers have more chips than Harry Ramsden.

  22. “This is the classic response of those who fail to understand the relationship between chicken & egg”

    ———

    The egg came first…

  23. CARFREW

    @” It’s the people want to get rid of the deterrent who are a bit more comfortable with the idea of others visiting destruction unchecked…”

    Very well put :-)

  24. GRAHAM
    “I have no problem with people arguing in favour of nuclear weapons per se. What does appall me is the sheer humbug and hypocrisy of those who say we must have these terrible weapons for our defence whilst at the same time seeking to deny them to other countries fully entitled to share our fears of being attacked”
    _______

    You have a point. The country most likely to use Nukes is Israel against Iran and some would could say it’s appalling that a country with nearly 80 million people has no deterrence against the constant threat from nuclear armed Israel.

    If I was living in Iran I would be lobbying the government to have Nukes.

  25. Carfrew

    “Dunno why peeps are worried about fishing and stuff, when the real issue dominating the debates on the EU is plain to see: Sovereignty”

    Absolutely! The burning question of the day is who should be the Sovereign.

    Brenda?
    Charles Brendason?
    William Charlesson?
    Trump?

  26. @ Colin

    She is from the other side of the river, so not Liverpool.mi know it is difficult.

    But the city has the safest Labour seat in the country.

    You see, we were told that we must learn from the Hillsborough and the Chilcot enquiries, but it seems that at least some of the MPs learn something infinitely close to zero.

  27. @colin,

    Spot on. Liverpool really is an awful place for political debate, I know it well. You could pin a red rosette on a skunk and they would vote for it. The whole place is one big chip on a little shoulder. Dreadful place.

  28. @Carfrew

    Where do you draw the line on Sovereignty?

    The HRC?
    The Rome Statute?
    NATO?
    The UN Conventions?
    The Vienna Convention?

    “We must retain Sovereignty over everything” isn’t much of an argument, because we are involved with so many many many things that require us to give up a little bit of national Sovereignty. Sovereignty alone as the reason for leaving the EU, seems like a solely nationalist pleading.

  29. Colin

    Lots of people want to be MPs and a lot of them don’t care where. I could be being cynical but I suspect that part of the appeal is a 60k+ pa salary plus generous allowances, plus a second home allowance, plus subsidized food and drink at work place and the opportunity to ‘earn’ lots of extra dosh with a bit of moonlighting.

    If that wasn’t enough theres a good chance of it being a job for life no matter how useless you are. Of course if you are really greedy and have something approaching a work ethic you can look forward to a serious money job on leaving parliament assuming you have greased enough palms while pretending to represent the people

  30. LASZLO

    As I said-I wouldn’t go near Liverpool , or ever refer to it if I was unfortunate enough to be in Public Life.

    Without pushing chickens too far ( as it were) , Liverpool is a city whose pavements are inches deep in eggshells. Scousers are immune to this stuff which they heap in ever larger quantities upon their streets ,to lacerate the feet of those who do not understand the multiple sensitivities of these chicken loving chip shouldered people.

  31. @ Rich

    Your ugly comment has nothing to do with the point – Angela Eagle, an MP for Wallasey not Liverpool, but still Merseyside, and some of her constituence members died in Hillsborough because of police, ambulance incompetence, and then were smeared for decades – the point being that she will be deselected.

    It is also very clear that you know nothing about Liverpool.

    ms Eagle also quite clearly (and so does Benn) the Sun that had a horrific smear on a Ch4 person – so much for her political skills and commitment.

  32. Allan Christie

    “If I was living in Iran I would be lobbying the government to have Nukes.”

    Indeed. Since so many Labour MPs seem to have been convinced by their Tory pals that the UK needs to deter the somebody from somewhere who for some unspecified reason wants to obliterate the world via an attack on Faslane, everyone should have their nukes!

    Andorra is just as likely to be attacked by North Korea as Scotland or Cornwall (London will be OK as their government will have stashed their ill-gotten gains via there) – so Andorra needs to have its own nuclear deterrent too.

  33. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Well its a view-one I might share in certain cases.

    However -trougher or saint-an MP gets ELECTED by CONSTITUENTS to represent THEM in PARLIAMENT.

    Party members just select PROSPECTIVE Parliamentary representatives.

  34. Even if she doesn’t get deselected im sure a ‘Hillsborough survivor’ candidate would stand against her and win

  35. It’s always useful to be reminded that those in the South of England (fortunately a minority) who obviously hate the Scots, also hate the Welsh, the Irish, the Geordies, the Scousers …..

    What sad little people they must be.

  36. Colin

    Until recently the Labour party members weren’t trusted to chose their MPs and even when they did the results were fiddled as Angela eagle knows too well

  37. @Laszlo,

    I’m not sure that it was those who died at Hillsborough who were smeared. Some of the police officers present outside the ground (where no one died) stated that they’d seen supporters who were drunk. (In fact, these statements were in some cases part of what the force “edited out” – a fact I don’t think I’ve ever seen acknowledged).

    I’m not defending the failure to recognise the causes of the tragedy or of South Yorkshire Police to take responsibility for it.

    But I do think it’s important not to overstate the case.

    I think some legends have built up around Hillsborough, as they have around some other famous episodes of police misconduct (see Oldnat’s reference to officers apparently turning to “O” in the phone book and picking the first six names). It’s not especially helpful. The truth is bad enough.

  38. @Colin

    “Very well put :-)”

    ———–

    Thanks Colin. Now if I can just figure out a way to explain Thorium…

  39. @Colin

    “Who’d be an MP in Liverpool. Scousers have more chips than Harry Ramsden.”

    Well, it’s pretty well known by most people on Merseyside that of the vast majority of print media titles there is one you should avoid at all costs. Then again, maybe her campaign is being run from somewhere much further afield, like London. Rather ironic if so, given that a big plank of her policy agenda involves reconnecting Labour with those outside London.

    Not that it’s likely to matter a great deal, as Eagle was already the rank outsider of the three contenders.

  40. “Lots of people want to be MPs and a lot of them don’t care where. I could be being cynical but I suspect that part of the appeal is a 60k+ pa salary plus generous allowances, plus a second home allowance, plus subsidized food and drink at work place and the opportunity to ‘earn’ lots of extra dosh with a bit of moonlighting.

    If that wasn’t enough theres a good chance of it being a job for life no matter how useless you are. Of course if you are really greedy and have something approaching a work ethic you can look forward to a serious money job on leaving parliament assuming you have greased enough palms while pretending to represent the people”

    ————-

    Also some of them get to go on Strictly and stuff. Maybe ride in a tank!!…

  41. @ Colin

    “Liverpool is a city whose pavements are inches deep in eggshells. ”

    In a way it is true, although you and @ Rich were just repeating Johnson’s statement: move on nothing to see here, and then we learnt that there was something there, and perhaps there was something there in 1984-85.

    In any case, judging from your comments in general, you do share at least one strait with Scousers, and it is what I quoted from you.

  42. @Jayblanc

    Sovereignty alone as the reason for leaving the EU, seems like a solely nationalist pleading.”

    —————

    Yes well try telling that to the Leave campaigners!!…

  43. 472-117

    I make that about 140 Lab MPs voted for the motion. Approx.

  44. I’m still puzzled as to why a MP should be upset about being ‘sacked’ from a job she never did and didn’t know about. In fact, I can’t see how that is being sacked… and I’ve no idea why her cancer is relevant (I’m sorry about her diagnosis obviously but where does it fit into the story?)

    Furthermore, if she were sacked, what was it that she resigned from, on the same day that all the junior ministers walked out en masse?

    Isn’t this also the woman MP that there was all the fuss about because of conflicting accounts of intimidation at her constituency meeting?

  45. @laszlo,

    Except a member of my immediate family is from Liverpool as are all her family. Dreadful, I have nothing else to say, honestly. No political debate possible with any of them, everything is the Tories fault. Yet they are all rampant capitalists looking to make money whenever and wherever, but in public are socalists and deeply religious Catholics. Am sorry, I hate the place, and a lot of the people. Apologies for the broad brush. Just my experience. It’s the hypocrisy of the place I can’t take.

  46. OLDNAT

    That’s about the crux of it….Probably the best way to deter a nuke attack is for every country in the World to have nukes, after all we are told nukes are the ultimate deterrence so if everyone has them then no one is likely to use them.

  47. Those registering as labour supporters and paying their £25 quid are being asked their social media details. Oddly some find this suspicious and think there might be an attempt to weed out undesirables. I think that given how many games have been played and how dodgy everything seems to be that if corbyn doesn’t win there will be widespread calls of fraud and vote rigging. This doesn’t end well no matter what

  48. Lab:

    For: 138
    Against: 48
    Abstentions: 45

  49. I’m signing off any debate related to Liverpool. It is better for everyone.

    My point was not about Liverpool – it was about Angela Eagle, and the complete lack of awareness.

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