ICM have a new poll in the Sun on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 4%(nc). This is the first poll conducted since Theresa May became Prime Minister, so may be expected to show a typical “new leader” bounce in government support (when Brown took over in 2007 and Major took over in 1990 the governing party went from being behind to having double-digit leads). The Tory lead is up a little, but not outside the normal margin of error, that said ICM’s previous poll already had an eight point Tory lead, so they were already at a high base.

ICM also did some hypothetical voting intention questions asking about varous leader match-ups. A control question, asking how people would vote if Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn were still leader at the general election has voting intention figures of CON 43%, LAB 28%, suggesting either a significant positive effect from mentioning May or a negative effect from mentioning Corbyn.

Asking how people would vote if Owen Smith or Angela Eagle were Labour leader does not offer any improvement. With Eagle the figures would be CON 43%, LAB 26%. With Smith the figures would be CON 42%, LAB 27%. I should add a heavy caveat here – hypothetical polls like this are popular in advance of leadership elections, but how useful they are is a different question. Respondents don’t necessarily know what the alternative candidates stand for, what they will do or announce, how they may or may not change the party. I add those caveats when the alternative leaders are well known to the public, like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson and so on. In the case of someone who is as unknown to the general public as Owen Smith, I expect most don’t know who he is or what he even looks like. Nevertheless, the figures will be influential in the debate – rightly or wrongly Corbyn’s supporters within the Labour party will now be able to say there is no polling evidence that his rivals would do any better.

Note that ComRes also have a poll in the Independent/Sunday Mirror, but they are not currently publishing any voting intention figures while they review methods.


481 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 39, LAB 29, LD 9, UKIP 14”

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  1. @Rich

    In view of your comments about Tancred’s posts you might to look at the tone and contents of many of yours.

  2. @ALLAN

    …ah but we can’t trust every Johnny foreigner with them

    Just guys like Trump,Putin, Li Keqiang, Kim Jong-il. and Benjamin Netanyahu

  3. ..Blessed be those peacemakers

  4. @CR

    Interestingly, even though I have never been a Lab member but was once an LD member, I have been bombarded over the past few days on social media by #saving Labour.

    I can only think that someone has managed to get hold on my browser history and associated it with Labour in some way.

  5. @CR

    …or maybe they read UKPR!

  6. @ RAF

    Save Labour is said to be an information harvesting ad. I’m not quite convinced, I have to hurriedly add, but there are elements of it.

    There is some accusation, probably they can’t prove it, that Progress is in breach of the data protection act.

  7. 117 MPs voted against Trident renewal – 58 of the 59 MPs from Scotland amongst them, so half of the anti-Trident vote came from the place that has to have the damn things!

    I understand the belief system of British Nationalists that the UK is one country, and there is “One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them. One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them”.

    Still, if Mordor wants WMD, it should damn well host the things, and not dump them in the Shire, because the Orcs think it too dangerous to have them in the Dark Kingdom!

  8. Recent YouGov poll shows 44% of people back Trident, 22% oppose, 24% aren’t sure.
    The other 10% fancy Corbyn’s idea of unarmed submarines. I want some of what they’re smoking.

  9. @Sygyzy – “I’m still puzzled as to why a MP should be upset about being ‘sacked’ from a job she never did and didn’t know about. In fact, I can’t see how that is being sacked… and I’ve no idea why her cancer is relevant (I’m sorry about her diagnosis obviously but where does it fit into the story?)”

    She didn’t seem to be upset from my reading of what she wrote – more embarrassed that her party leader was so incompetent. Fancy calling your contacts in the arts world and starting to work with them, thinking you have an official role in HM’s Opposition, only then to possibly find out you don’t? And what do you tell your constituency party?

    The cancer bit fits in as some Corbyn supporters criticised her for missing votes – when under treatment, I understand.

    Of course, it’s entirely possible that she is making the whole thing up, in which case Corbyn could take a libel action against the DT. However, it sounds suspiciously similar to a stream of similar complaints coming from Labour MPs, including some former Corbyn backers.

    Of course, they might all be making this up, but we have also witnessed some utterly shambolic public appearances by the man, and his inability to organise effectively was also highlighted during the EU referendum. I gather he had a good holiday though.

    We do live in a post factual world. That’s the only reason Corbyn remains in place.

  10. Raf

    Saving labour have a lot of money, no one knows where it comes from, probably progress

  11. @ Alec

    The story is true. It is a sign of incompetence – however, not an unusual incompetence either in politics or business.

  12. @CR – “Saving labour have a lot of money, no one knows where it comes from, probably progress”

    can this be evidenced?

  13. @OLDNAT

    “Any vessel which is registered as part of the EU fishing fleet has equal access to all EU waters, so Grimsby fishermen (as long as they observe the conservation rules) can fish in what were formerly the preserves of the French, Spanish, Italian, or Greek fleets.
    In that sense, the “UK fishing waters” have expanded under the EU – not reduced.”

    So there goes yet another anti-EU myth. Ludlownewboy obviously hasn’t done his homework.

  14. @Laszlo – “The story is true. It is a sign of incompetence – however, not an unusual incompetence either in politics or business.”

    I think that’s total [email protected], and I think you know that. It is the most extraordinary example of leadership incompetence that I can ever recall from any of the main parliamentary parties concerning front bench positions.

    There are times when people need to stop arguing black is white and just accept that their side has totally screwed up.

  15. From the motion:

    “..recognises that the UK remains committed to reducing its overall nuclear weapon stockpile by the mid-2020s; and supports the government’s commitment to continue work towards a safer and more stable world, pressing for key steps towards multilateral disarmament.”

    So the necessity to maintain and renew Trident is buttressed by our commitment to reducing the number of warheads and ultimately to pursuing multilateral nuclear disarmament?

  16. @SOMERJOHN

    Interesting point about standards – thanks for that.

    In any case, I am neither interested nor bothered by what the EU does by imposing common standards, and those who point to this puerile issue as an excuse to oppose the EU clearly need some remedial education.

  17. @Tancred and @Oldnat – I posted something on the fishing a few days after the vote along similar lines. It was news to me, as I had assumed there would be some benefit to UK fishermen from withdrawal from the CFP, so I was surprised.

    I would also say that the briefing issued from the body representing the UK fishing industry was actually worse than simply pointing out that quotas are highly unlikely to rise following withdrawal, because they helpfully pointed out that UK fishermen currently qualify for EU grants to make their boats more efficient and safer.

    Oops! Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, but UK fishermen don’t seem to be quite so reticent.

  18. @ Alec

    Just two examples

    Blair confused names and fired Angela Eagle in 2002.

    A well-known Swiss company didn’t know that its UK subsidiary had a sizeable research lab – and then finding it out after a breakthrough research project, it closed it down because it was against company policy.

  19. Polltroll

    The other 10% fancy Corbyn’s idea of unarmed submarines. I want some of what they’re smoking.”

    Agreed. If other countries believe that the UK has WMD, when it doesn’t, then some of them will be as led by people as insane as Blair/Bush and invade the UK to remove them!

    As Hammond said “North Korea seem to think possessing a nuclear weapon makes them safe. In fact it’s the opposite. Having a nuclear weapon makes them a target.’

    Actually having the things, as opposed to Hussein’s bluster, would make us even more vulnerable.

    I understand the MAD theory, but is anyone seriously arguing that the Trident is “independent” of the USA – or that it adds anything substantial to the massive nuclear arsenal that the USA has?

    Under what conceivable circumstances would (or could) the UK deploy Trident, when the USA wouldn’t already have mounted a retaliation that would have destroyed the world?

    I can also understand that the UK wants to borrow billions to fund this project because its leaders want to posture as important in the world. Pathetic wee souls.

  20. @ALEC

    Well, the whole EU issue has been so confused that many people who voted had little idea of what the EU actually does. I would imagine that most people who voted leave had existing prejudices against the EU that were merely reinforced by the lies and disinformation of the leave campaign. Cameron shamefully never made a genuine effort to explain to people what benefits the EU offered to the nation – all we got was apologies and excuses. No wonder remain lost so badly.

  21. @ Alec

    I missed this one:

    “There are times when people need to stop arguing black is white and just accept that their side has totally screwed up.”

    I have nothing to do with Corbyn, or for that matter with any social democrats. However, I do have affinity with them, but Corbyn is not the main one in that.

  22. On fishing, you remainers are missing the point about the impact quotas have had.

    Take the common fisheries policy in more detail, 15-20 years ago many small communities in the UK enjoyed a sustainable fishery in the North Sea, but things changed dramatically when much of our North Sea quota was reallocated to the Belgian/Dutch fleets with much larger vessels. Within 5 years our sustainable fishery was replaced by one with meagre catches and a lot of dead & discarded undersized fish killed by industrial scale fishing. To have only 13% of EU quotas to fish within UK waters, which accounts for 80% of the EU fishery is simply unfair. This is one example of the EU negatively affecting working class people. That Hugh Whittingdale or whatever he is called did some good programmes on this.

  23. @Rich,

    Nono, you don’t understand. Everything to do with the EU is good. It is known.

  24. #Breaking Tonight’s YouGov poll of Labour *members* gives Corbyn a 33% lead over Eagle and a 39% lead over Smith

    Go Corbyn. I am not surprised as I said a couple of days ago Corbyn’s determination & calmness is pretty admirable

  25. More info…

    .Labour leadership voting intention:
    J. Corbyn: 54%
    A. Eagle: 21%
    O. Smith: 15%
    (via YouGov / 15 – 18 Jul)
    Lab members eligible to vote only.

  26. And SNP have issued a statement saying that given the vote tonight, the vote of the Scottish Parliament and the opinions of civic Scotland that Trident must be withdrawn from the Clyde & they are asking the UK government for their plans for Trident withdrawal.

  27. @Couper: I didn’t know the Scottish parliament had any jurisdiction over the UK armed forces. I must have misread the Scotland Act.

  28. @oldnat

    “Under what conceivable circumstances would (or could) the UK deploy Trident, when the USA wouldn’t already have mounted a retaliation that would have destroyed the world?”

    ————-

    If losing a conventional war, a single device is a well known way of trying to force negotiations, instead of letting the other side conquer. The other side fires one in retaliation, then they sit down to discuss peace…

    Anyway, just because you guys, or even me, can’t conceive of it, doesn’t mean circumstances couldn’t arise. I mean, your side didn’t even seem capable of conceiving of a big drop in the oil price. We need capabilities to deal with the unforeseen.

  29. “Where’s the money coming from for all that?”

    ————-

    Barnett. It’s clear that a number of Scots peeps think that on becoming Independent, they will keep the oil, Barnett, Sterling, a seat on the Security Council, the Queen, Tom Jones, Oxford, Cambridge, Tower Bridge, The Channel Tunnel, Stonehenge, the Falklands, the Elgin Marbles, and the surviving members of the Beatles.

    We get the Bay City Rollers and RBS in exchange. Seems fair…

  30. @MBRUNO

    “@Couper: I didn’t know the Scottish parliament had any jurisdiction over the UK armed forces. I must have misread the Scotland Act.”

    ————

    Even on being independent they think they could tell us what to do with the currency. Indy peeps have magical powers…

  31. In an interview today Owen Smith let slip that like so many other Labour MPs he was once an employee of the BBC like so many other Labour apparatchiks.
    I wonder if this might lead to further accusations of bias from the Corbyn camp who have not been shy at taking a swipe at the corporation in the past

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