Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has a much closer race than ICM’s last poll. Topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%, GRN 4% (full tabs are here.)

The poll was conducted over the weekend before Theresa May became Prime Minister, though did include a question on whether people thought she had what it took to be a good Prime Minister (55% of people though she did, 27% did not).

Given it is being rampantly misrepresented on social media, I should also explain about MORI’s turnout filter and how they present their figures (and why, therefore, some people are tweeting entirely different MORI figures!). These days the overwhelming majority of opinion polls contain some sort of adjustment for how likely people are to vote. The general pattern is that older people and middle class people are more likely to vote than younger people and working class people; older people and middle class people are also more likely to vote Conservative, younger people and working class people more likely to vote Labour. This means if a poll just included everyone, with no reference to how likely or unlikely they actually are to vote, then it would overstate Labour when compared to actual election results.

Polling companies account for this by weighting by likelihood to vote (the more likely you are to vote, the more your answer is counted) or filtering by likelihood to vote (only taking people who say they are likely to vote), based either on how likely people say they are to vote, or on demographic modelling. In the case of MORI, their topline figures are based only on people who say they are at least 9/10 likely to vote AND that they always, usually or have sometimes voted in the past. This makes a substantial difference to their topline figures – without this adjustment they would have been showing a five point Labour lead.

MORI’s headline figure is the one that is adjusted for turnout – the one point Conservative lead – which they regard as a better indicator of actual voting intention. However, because MORI’s political monitor has been going since the 1970s they still publish the figures without the turnout adjustment to preserve the data trend, even if they don’t feel it paints an accurate picture in an era of lower turnouts.

In short, if you are looking at Ipsos MORI figures with a view to seeing how well the parties might do in a general election tomorrow, you need to look at the figures that account for how likely people actually are to vote, not take false solace from figures that don’t take turnout into account.


842 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 36, LAB 35, LD 11, UKIP 8”

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  1. The question has to be asked is what support there is in the country for a Corbyn led Labour party ? Are the polls ignoring Corbyn, on the basis it will be another Labour leader that would be a future PM, if Labour won an election ?

    I should imagine that Corbyn, McDonnell, Livingstone and the old Labour figures who still follow the early 1980’s politics of Labour, believe that somehow they are still relevant to the UK in 2016. They might also believe that some Trade Unions will get involved in opposition against a Tory government. What this forgets is that the majority voting do not share their politics and if they go into an election looking unelectable the Tories will win by a landslide.

    Corbyn must be thinking of a permanent split in Labour, with his party continuing with the help of a few unions and the Blairites setting up their own party. After sitting on the backbenches throughout the Blair/Brown period, he wants to see them leave his Labour movement.

  2. HAWTHORN

    @”This is a provisional first impression which I am happy to revise.”

    This might help in your deliberations ?

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/independent-sunday-mirror-political-poll-2/

  3. Colin

    Thats really awful for AE and OS that Labour voters think that JC is more electable than either of them. Thats their big argument blown out of the water

  4. Time for some song lyrics?

    And now the markets are demanding that we give away for free
    everything that our grandparents fought for to some company
    It’s called wealth creation yeah it’s more efficient you see
    Well sorry I forgot the free market would set us free
    I forgot to only think about I am and me
    while brothers and sisters have nothing to eat
    brothers and sisters at home and over seas
    So I can’t lie down and I wont let it be
    While we are working for a market that doesn’t work for we

    She Drew The Gun

  5. Hawthorn – “The question is whether the Tory party will let her. If she wanted to meld a centrist coalition, perhaps she should have been a bit less brutal to the Cameroons.”

    All the other factions of the Conservatives are happy at the moment, she has managed to please them all. They’re also in awe of her and a bit excited about the prospects of the Tories. Of course the Cameroons could make trouble – but to what end? They’re not going to get support from the rest to get back into a position at the top. The chumocracy was a small group. Cameron’s habit of not doing reshuffles which meant no-one else got a chance apart from the gilded group, didn’t help either.

    They’re probably smarting at the moment, but what most will do is start cultivating non-political contacts – by the next election they will have been on the backbenches long enough for them to be able to go straight into a high-paying private sector job. If they were ministers, they’d have to wait the requisite time, so there is that consolation.

  6. None of those questions mention the telly.

    May is clearly going for the strongwoman leadership style, which is borne out by that polling. It could be that the received wisdom that it is important to be smooth in the Tony Blair/David Cameron mould is wrong. Indeed, I hope it is. We shall see.

    If she does fail, she will get the boot from her own side. Her task is a formidable one.

  7. CATMANJEFF
    Caroline Lucas is introducing a bill to introduce PR on Wednesday.

    Hansard seems to indicate it will be straight after May’s 1st PMQs, so it should be a fairly full house at the beginning. I will be astonished if the SNP and LDs don’t support it, as well as some NI parties like SDLP plus Carswell I would guess as it’s official UKIP policy.

    I wonder if any Labour MPs will be supporting it?

    There are definitely some democrats among the Con & Lab MPs, so I would be surprised if nobody at all from those 2 parties supports it, but very few I fear.

    I tried to find the text of the bill on the Parliament, Green & Lucas sites without success. If you have a link, please post it.

  8. CATMANJEFF
    Caroline Lucas is introducing a bill to introduce PR on Wednesday.

    Hansard seems to indicate it will be straight after May’s 1st P*M*Qs, so it should be a fairly full house at the beginning. I will be astonished if the SNP and LDs don’t support it, as well as some NI parties like SDLP plus Carswell I would guess as it’s official UKIP policy.

    I wonder if any Labour MPs will be supporting it?

    There are definitely some democrats among the Con & Lab MPs, so I would be surprised if nobody at all from those 2 parties supports it, but very few I fear.

    I tried to find the text of the bill on the Parliament, Green & Lucas sites without success. If you have a link, please post it.

    NB the *s above are to try not avoid automod!

  9. @Colin

    That’s an incredible poll!

    quote

    Theresa May leads Jeremy Corbyn by 39 points over who would make a better Prime Minister (58% vs 19%).

    British adults are overall fairly positive towards Mrs May. More than half of British adults say that Theresa May is a strong leader (55%). Only 13% say the same for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Similarly, half of British adults are likely to say that Theresa May is good on the world stage, compared to just one in ten British adults who say the same for Jeremy Corbyn (48% vs 11%).

    However, two in five British adults say that Mr Corbyn understands ordinary people, compared to a third who say the same for Theresa May (42% vs 31%).

    Of all attributes tested, Britons are most likely to say that Mr Corbyn is principled, however Mrs May still performs better than Mr Corbyn on this strength (43% for Corbyn vs 44% for May).

    British adults are more likely believe that Theresa May will be a better Prime Minister than David Cameron has been (36% vs 21%).

    Theresa May also appears to be more popular than David Cameron amongst Conservative voters. 35% of Conservative voters are more likely to think Theresa May will be a better Prime Minister, compared to one quarter who say David Cameron has been a better Prime Minister than Theresa May will be (25%).

    end quote

    Better PM than Cameron! – and that was his USP – that the public liked him better than they liked the Conservatives!

  10. Politician who has just taken office has good poll rating shock.

    Perhaps I should dig out the posts from last May when people berated me for saying that Cameron should make the most of his moment of glory.

  11. @Barbazenzero

    It will be a ten minute rule bill, so I gather full texts are sometimes not available.

    I can see why the Conservatives don’t like PR much, but as it stands Labour looks like they might need it soon, as the big tent they had that got them into Government before using FPTP looks shattered utterly.

  12. Some more details of that ComRes poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CngPo2vWAAARQJT.jpg

    Principled: Corbyn 43% May 44%

    Incompetent: Corbyn 39% May 8%

    Boring: Corbyn 38% May 16%

    Nasty: Corbyn 18% May 16%

    So is Lab the nasty party now?

  13. FPTP is very bad for Labour in Scotland and South England.

  14. Candy

    Interesting that corbyn only just edges may on the nasty tag when we have had 4 weeks of ‘corbyn supporting thugs’ stories. That only 39% believe he is incompetent after the press he’s had is a miracle.

    Of course May is enjoying a bounce as new PM and not many of the public know much about her yet as folk don’t pay attention much. I would expect her nasty numbers to increase rapidly

  15. “Interesting that corbyn only just edges may on the nasty tag when we have had 4 weeks of ‘corbyn supporting thugs’ stories.”

    Not ideal when his opponent came to prominence by getting on stage at her party’s conference to tell them they were nasty.

  16. The interesting findings for me is Corbyn’s match up with Eagle & Smith amongst the Labour VI on who is more likely to win a GE. Corbyn 44 Smith 26 Corbyn 50 Eagle 23. Suggests Eagle or Smith might lose Labour votes. Of course the Labour VI may be ‘the wrong type of voters’

  17. @CambridgeRachel

    You are taking comfort that “only” 39% believe he is incompetent?!

    The press is a fact of life – they aint going away, and that applies to Conservatives like Andrea Leadsom as well as Corbyn. But the difference between Leadsom and Corbyn is that she is a realist and saw the way the wind was blowing…

    What is your strategy for winning a general election with 39% of voters thinking Corbyn is incompetent?

  18. @ Candy

    Politicians tend not to be particularly competent …

  19. CANDY

    It is certainly interesting-but early days :-)

  20. @Laszlo

    True. But in elections it is the perceptions of voters that count.

  21. Corbyn for PM

    “As incompetent as the next man”

  22. @ Colin

    True.

    But, there was an American book in the 1970s (I can’t remember much of it, and I really don’t want to look it up in another book) in which the question was put: “do we expect too much from our politicians?” :-)

  23. COLIN
    This might help in your deliberations ?

    Thanks for the link. By and large it doesn’t look very different to what I would have expected for E&W, but on the personal qualities [pp31-37 of the tables] it does show rather different perceptions in the E&W vs the Scottish cross-breaks[1].

    Principled:
    Corbyn v May: E&W 42% v 45% S 47% v 37%

    Honest:
    Corbyn v May: E&W 36% v 37% S 45% v 30%

    Don’t Knows:
    Corbyn v May: E&W 12% v 13% S 8% v 13%

    If nothing else, it demonstrates that Scotland has rather different views. Perhaps Lab should swap Corbyn for Kez?

    [1] The cross-breaks are small, but double the usual with a 2000+ sample.

  24. I think the difference between leadsom and corbyn is that May had something juicy on her and was prepared to set the press on her if she didn’t step down

  25. Sometimes the most interesting figures in opinion polls are the ones they don’t highlight – or in this case even show If you look at the tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Independent_SundayMirror_July2016-Poll_tables.pdf#page=4

    you see that no voting intention has been reported – even though it clearly was asked as there are cross-heads and this is presumably the regular monthly online ComRes poll which normally reports VI.

    However it is possible to work out from those what the VI was[1]:

    Con 37% (+3)

    Lab 32% (+3)

    Lib Dem 7% (-1)

    UKIP 13% (-6)

    Green 4% (-)

    SNP 5% (-)

    () are changes on last month.

    The drop in UKIP has been hinted at in other polls but this is the biggest fall we’ve seen. Some of it may be zero publicity, but fieldwork was 13-15 July, so some of May’s appointments will have been know to some of those polled. It may be that Leavers were reassured by some of these and went from UKIP to Con (a lot of the Labour gain is from non-voters).

    But the other interesting thing is how little the Tory lead has been affected over the last month, despite all that has happened. The Referendum result, the relentless media assault on Corbyn, the new Conservative leader all seem to have made little impact on VI. ComRes online has always been one of Labour’s ‘worst’ pollster and last month’s Tory lead was the smallest they had shown – so it being unaffected is surprising in the circumstances.

    One of the odd things since May is how few VI polls there have been – we’ve not had one from YouGov since late April – and this is another MIA. Perhaps pollsters and those who commission them are unwilling to consider how little ‘events’ change things and how current polling hints that Westminster groupthink may not be correct.

    [1] This assumes not further adjustment would have been done on the figures after weighting etc. I have allowed 2% for PC and Other.

  26. Roger Mexico

    Thanks for that

  27. @Roger Mexico

    In their blog, ComRes say the following:

    “ComRes is not publishing voting intention for the time being while we continue to review our methods.”

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/independent-sunday-mirror-political-poll-2/

    So they’re not sure the VI part is correct

  28. Be interesting to see how voters feel about the so called rainbow alliance idea. Someone was saying earlier that Lucas was tabling a motion in support of PR or was it a bill? In any case if we see corbyn supporting MPs voting for it that would indicate that corbyn is serious about the idea. Indeed it might be a major motivater for those trying to oust him.

  29. @CR

    It’s a ten minute rule bill, so nothing will happen.

    However, I am interested in how Labour views PR. We know that as things are, the Conservatives will have no interest in moving from FPTP – they do to well out of it. Labour are the key to moving to PR.

  30. Jeremy Corbyn has long been an opponent of PR, as are a great deal of Labour MPs on left and right.

    A “progressive alliance” would in theory be possible, but would prove highly impractical to set up. For example, what would Labour give the Greens in exchange for them standing down in Labour-Tory marginals? There are hardly any winnable seats in which the Greens are better placed challengers than Labour.

    The idea also assumes that voters would flow neatly between the parties involved. While Ed Miliband failed to win last year, there will have been some Labour-Tory swing voters who voted Labour. We know from that election that significant numbers of Lib Dems prefer the Conservatives to Labour. It’s entirely possible they’d go back to the Tories if forced to choose between them and, say, the Greens. I live in Nick Clegg’s seat, and can guarantee the local Labour Party would run a wildcat Independent Labour campaign if they were told they had to let him have a free run.

    Moreover, less than 50% of voters backed parties often suggested as part of said alliance at the last election, so there’s no guarantee they would win. That’s assuming you could force, say, the SNP and Scottish Labour to work together.

  31. @Ludlowtownboy – “If we have it and accept the new arrangements, we carry on as is presently expected and exit. If we don’t accept it, what then? The government goes back and tries for something better which gets voted on again and so on, or we carry on with something the electorate has already rejected?”

    No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, You just don’t get it!

    If we have a second vote, it will be between the status quo (current EU membership) and the deal offered for Brexit. It will therefore be a much better informed choice than the last one, and the result supercedes the first vote. We either leave, or stay under the terms we already have. Very simple.

    @Rich was moaning about people trying to subvert democracy or somesuch earlier in this thread, and he was equally wrong. The simple fact is that people like @Rich can’t tell us what they voted for – because they don’t know.

    I can tell them precisely what I voted for as a Remainer, and all I want is the chance to be able to vote in precisely what Leave would mean. That is why we want a second conforming vote.

    Sign here – https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/134618

  32. Sorry to double post, but another thought:

    The only existing arrangements of that sort exist in the Scandinavian PR countries, which all have right of centre governments, and Australia, where it’s the right of centre parties which have that arrangement and were just re-elected (albeit narrowly).

    What ties those examples together is that the alliances are functionally seen as one party, just as the SDP/Liberal alliance was here. I’m not sure Labour/LDs/Greens/Plaid/SNP are close enough in policy to be functionally identical as the Liberals/Nationals/LNP/CLP are.

  33. Colin
    “worse than that for them now -it is a Theresa May administration hell bent on implementing Nick Timothy ‘s idea of Conservatism.”

    Very true. He is An interesting chap we shall see how it goes but personally at the moment I am delighted with her appointment. She said the right things in that speech. Her cabinet appointments have also been quite inspired as well. Some might say unwise in one or two cases but I definately think inspired.

    If the likes of Davis, Fox & Boris deliver, she and the party will reap the benefit. Boris is then in a good position for leader after her. If they don’t get a good deal, she could put it to another vote and let the people decide. Either way she’s Teflon, and the EU split in the party goes away. Boris actually has everything to play for here. We will watch with interest, I suspect.

  34. O/T

    Turns out the EU Commission knew about VW’s diesel emissions problems since 2010:

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/commission-has-long-known-of-diesel-emissions-manipulation-a-1103249.html

  35. @Mr Nameless

    At our last meeting (Green) we discussed ‘the progressive alliance’.

    Basically, for us a guarantee of electoral reform would be the immovable red line. If it was an arrangement of standing down in certain seats, in England about 11 m votes were cast in the 2015 GE for Lab, LD and Green. Breaking down by party that works out as a ratio of 8:2:1 Lab/LD/Green. If the deal did not reflect that sort of proportion I could not support it.

    I personally think that unless Labour are in a position of being locked out of winning under FPTP (likely in my view) AND accept this, it won’t happen.

  36. CATMANJEFF @CR
    Labour are the key to moving to PR

    Absolutely. I’d guess that for now only a very few of them will support the bill. If a Blairite v “real” Labour split should happen then both factions would be mad not to support it.

    I can’t see the LDs accepting Blairites into their fold unless they do, although I suppose they could cross the floor and ask the Cons to accept them.

  37. PR – Labour’s biggest mistake in office was their failure to reform the voting system. They thought they were invincible, and than when they finally did lose their ‘turn’ would come again. Big, big mistake.

    @Colin – yes, if St. Theresa does what she says on the tin she will be elevated to a deity, but chances are she won’t.

    So far I’ve survived every Tory administration since Thatcher.

    She quoted Francis of Assisi, and was the most divisive PM of the modern era. In 1990 John Major promised “in the next ten years we will have to continue to make changes which will make the whole of this country a genuinely classless society” and gave us another savage recession, sleaze, and the total trashing of public services.

    Up pops Cameron, who gives us the greenest government ever, promised to ‘stop banging on about Europe’ and was going to deliver “modern compassionate Conservatism” before punishing us with ideologically driven small state austerity and generally being the worst PM since Lord North.

    You may be taken in by the first day speeches of an incoming Tory PM, but some of us have seen it all before.

    [For purposes of balance, Gordon Brown promised to end boom and bust, and Tony Blair said “Mine is the first generation able to contemplate the possibility that we may live our entire lives without going to war or sending our children to war. That is a prize beyond value.”]

    Politicians, schmoliticians – who needs em?

  38. @Robert Newark – yes, I’ve always found the left to be characterized by a near total lack of imagination. Any good ideas come from unconventional sources and they tend to be very slow to pick up on radical thinking, being generally hidebound by structure and process instead of impact and results.

  39. @Roger

    I wonder if weighting methodology causes large real movements in VI to be lost through weighting?

    I remember during the rise of UKIP, when they were winning by election after by election, and most pollsters kept showing them in low single digits, and they all eventually had to change their methodology.

    It will be interesting to look at the unweighted figures over the next few weeks to see if another party is suddenly being weighted down in poll after poll like UKIP was back then. I suspect we will be seeing a revival of the Lib Dems with Labour in civil war and the 48% having nowhere else to go.

    I saw a report that the Lib Dems were starting to win back council seats – I know, we can’t extrapolate from a few council results, but that was really the first hint that the polls were getting UKIP completely wrong.

  40. Alec
    “I can tell them precisely what I voted for as a Remainer…”

    Can you really? Do you know exactly what legislation the EU will introduce over the next few years – ‘ever closer union’ and all?

    I think many Leave voters were actually voting against that principle.

  41. When did UKIP win by election after by election? Don’t remember them having many MPs (one, isn’t it?)

  42. @nickp

    Sorry, I meant local council elections.

  43. 39% say Corbyn is incompetent?
    What is the figure for Cameron was incompetent?
    How do we know that May will not be incompetent?
    Peter Crook Thinkon’t

  44. @Pete B – “Can you really? Do you know exactly what legislation the EU will introduce over the next few years – ‘ever closer union’ and all?”

    No – certainly no more than I could say what Westminster legislation there could be in the next few years.

    What I could say is which areas we had agreed to share sovereignty, which areas were covered by QMV, and which areas our government had a right of veto.

    I could promise that we would have free movement of people, and access to the single market, which are issues that Brexiters still can’t make clear promises on, even after the vote.

    You need to admit that the clarity of the remain offer was miles ahead of the clarity of the leave campaign.

  45. Alec,

    I think it’s you who doesn’t get it and that you’re grasping at straws.
    The Remain camp stated very clearly how terrible things would be if we left and the electorate didn’t care, because they know how terrible things are for them already. Maybe not for you personally but certainly for the majority of them.
    I don’t know where you live but can you honestly say you think people all across England and Wales feel things have been good these last few years? Or that there are any signs of it getting better?

    They instructed the government to get the best deal it could from the EU and the rest of the world and then get out. They don’t need to be asked again.

    They knew that the future outside was uncertain but the future of the economy is always uncertain. Do you think it’s been going welland instructed the government to get the best deal it could t

  46. Sorry

    Post should have finished after “the future of the economy is always uncertain”.
    The bit after was mis-typed and I thought I had deleted it.

  47. Alec

    I endorse what Ludlownewboy says. The Remain campaign descended into farce with threats of Western civilisation being destroyed, punishment budgets, etc etc.

    There were two separate Leave campaigns, with different emphasis on particular policies, which may have led to some mixed messages.

  48. PS Can we please stop rerunning the referendum? It’s over.

  49. @Alec
    The leave campaign was that if we left there’d be ww3 in western europe, kent would sink into the sea, a recession worse than the last 10 years, no more state pension, massive cuts to the nhs, terrorists would have a freeforall here, the end of civilization as we know it, it would be terrible for lgbt…somehow…and also we’re all racists.

  50. Remain campaign, obviously. Although it makes just as much sense either way…

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