The Conservative leadership election is abruptly over while a Labour leadership election begins. No doubt there will be polling on those over the next couple of weeks. In the meantime ICM put out a new voting intention poll today, with topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%.

The eight point lead for the Conservatives is a slightly larger Tory lead than at the general election, and was conducted over the weekend so does not yet account for any honeymoon Theresa May may or may not enjoy. During the leadership election May ruled out the opinion of an early general election, so if she keeps her word she’ll resist the temptation of an early election while Labour are at one another’s throats. If not it may be an interesting result.

ICM rolled out a couple of methodology changes for today’s poll. Firstly they’ve dropped weighting turnout based on self-reported likelihood to vote and replaced it with a turnout model based on demographics, secondly they’ve started weighting by level of political interest – the poll was also conducted online rather than by phone, which seems to be increasingly the case for ICM polls. According to ICM the impact of the changes is typically to increase Tory support by about a point and decrease Labour support by about a point. Full tabs are here.


987 Responses to “ICM – CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15”

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  1. CB11

    @”I’m thinking risqué jokes here and Boris Johnson references.”

    Ruth Davidson already them-the other day. Brought the house down reportedly.

    Do keep up.

  2. NeilA
    “I don’t think there are actually very many “Tory” posters on this board. Quite a few right-wing posters, perhaps, but for actual Tories you’re looking at Roly, BobinNorfolk, RMJ1, Colin and now Rich.”

    And me! Although I did vote LD in 1997.

    My left wing now retired teacher, brother in law spotted May as a potential leader around the time of the nasty party speech. He foresaw a very different Tory party with her in charge.

  3. ROBERT NEWARK
    What for Gove?

    Gibralter – his version of Elba

  4. @Colin

    “Ruth Davidson already them-the other day. Brought the house down reportedly.”

    Really? Which house? Lords or Commons?

    :-)

  5. JAMES E
    @ Allan C
    “I certainly wasn’t “rubbishing the UK” . You need to bear in mind that we stand to lose trade with all 27 EU countries, whereas Germany stands to lose only it’s UK trade”
    ______

    Sorry I don’t accept this…The EU (as one) is in dire straits. Why would they want to to lose potential trade to the UK?

    To be honest when I talk about EU/UK trade I’m talking France and Germany and not buying Greek olives, Spanish onions or Dutch Windmills.

    Back to German and UK trade…Germany is the biggest powerhouse in the EU. The UK is their 3rd biggest export market and the fact that Merkee is the Queen of the EU and her country exports billions to the UK each year then I would had thought she would be under some pressure from the German domestic market to get the right deal post Brexit.

    They are already losing billions of exports to Russia and UK imposed tariffs might just boot the old hag over the edge.

  6. @Various

    Surely Gove is finished? His treachery was so blatant and public, even by Tory standards, that no-one will ever trust him again.

    I hope Boris can cut the clowning and bumbling and actually do something useful. Perhaps if he puts a bag on Angela Merkel’s head and does his bit for England?

    Apologies to Scots etc, but it’s a reference to advice that used to be given to ladies in Victorian times in England.

  7. When the government caves in on free movement, she has three human shields to take the bullets.

  8. BARDIN @ ROBERT NEWARK
    What for Gove?
    Gibralter – his version of Elba

    Brilliant and wish I’d thought of that!

  9. Talking of jokes, and I really will sign off with this one, I thought Frankie Boyle’s observation about Andrea Leadsom was quite good.

    He felt she looked like something that “was created by Nazi scientists as a response to Dame Vera Lynn.”

    Had me chuckling. Still does.

  10. I feel even more sorry for Mrs Johnson now, given the amount of time that Boris will be away from home.

  11. @RAF

    No need to find Athos, etc, roles for the Three Brexiteers, as it’s not really their name anyway.

    Unfortunately, the Three Stooges was already trademarked.

  12. @MOG

    Touché :)

  13. May’s treatment of Boris is wonderfully funny. The role of Foreign Secretary has been on the decline since the age of the gunboat, and there was little left except prestige. But she has taken away the only two significant remaining areas of power (trade deals and Europe) and given them elsewhere. And both are Secretary of State jobs, they’re not remotely under him. The only thing left for BoJo to do is make gaffes. I trust we won’t be disappointed. I can see May having a good giggle about the latest ‘disaster’ at her weekly audience with Brenda.

    Fox is the only danger area so far, given his past (and like Boris he’s not as clever as he thinks he is). I hope she’s got some competent people in there to mind him – or failing that has already set up the investigations team to expose him.

    I suspect she might put Greening at Health, though what to do with Grayling and Hunt will be a problem. Gove she might actually leave at Justice where he’s getting reasonable plaudits simply by being Not Chris Grayling.

  14. @ Hawthorn

    “I feel even more sorry for Mrs Johnson now, given the amount of time that Boris will be away from home.”

    A blessed relief I would have thought!

  15. @ Jayblanc

    “That’s the point. Foreign Trade had already been removed from the Foreign Office’s remit, and given to the DTI. Now it’s apparently becoming it’s own Ministry independent of either the Foreign Office or the DTI (which presumably gets a name change? Department of Domestic Trade and Industry?)”

    No, we don’t know that for certain.

    We know that Fox has been given a glamorous sounding job in cabinet. Presumably with a department to go with it.

    How much of BIS (DTI expired some time ago) this will take with him remains to be seen as does what happens to the residue of that department. Universities and training could be quite easily be hived off to Department of Education, standards and European trade would sit well with the Brexit team.

    That would be the sensible thing to do with a civil service that’s going to be stretched by Brexit.

    Alternatively we may get some monstrous DETR ‘mega-department’ charged with delivering industrial policy, saving the union and improving life chances. Strange things happen on day 2 of reshuffles – which are really massive business restructures compressed into hours.

  16. @ AllanC

    “Germany is the biggest powerhouse in the EU. The UK is their 3rd biggest export market ”

    Yes, I agree with that.

    But as stated above we take 4.4% of Germany’s exports. But the EU is easily the UK’s largest export market by some way, as per the figure I’ve already quoted above (44%).

    [And there’s absolutely no need to resort to referring to Merkel as an “old hag”, or to get personal towards other posters here.]

  17. Alec

    Bernie saunders was a little known Senator from a very small state, he had no name recognition, he had no big donors, no party bigwigs to endorse him. He started out at 1% in the polls! He got very close to achieving the greatest political upset of all time. He managed to out fundraise the mighty clinton machine by taking small online donations of about 20 quid a time rather than the traditional $100.000 plate dinners. Yes he lost but he shouldn’t even have been in the running.

    Of course if Elizabeth Warren had run it would have been so different but hopefully we will get her as Vice President

  18. GUYMONDE

    I should have added “fnar fnar” to my previous post. Wink wink, nudge nudge.

    The Liam Fox appointment I find incomprehensible given the problems his very close friend gave him last time. Accident waiting to happen.

  19. As I understand it, the British and German economies are closely intertwined, I think I read somewhere that a lot of the stuff we export to Germany are parts. So either they have to get those from somewhere else or they can’t make their products. I could be wrong but I don’t think its as simple as adding up imports and exports

  20. JAMES E

    You’re going round in circles and ending up in a corner..How that happened I don’t know!

    I’m on about direct trade between the UK and Germany. Forget German trade with the rest of the EU and try concentrating on UK/German trade where the UK is Germany’s 3rd biggest export market.

    The German businesses will be lobbying Merkee for a favorable deal with the UK post Brexit and that in turn will be good news for the UK/EU talks post Brexit because what Germany says the EU tends to follow,

  21. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    The truth is that both economies need each other so it’s i both their interests to have a smooth Brexit.

    Anyway all this talk about Germany has me thinking about pool side seats and the need to be up early to get my own seat on the train in the morning.

    Gute Nacht

  22. Just before I go off to bed to have a lucid dream on Big Bird and Angela Eagle….. Can you imagine Boris Johnson at a foreign secretary’s meeting in Germany……”Shhhh don’t mention the war”

    Oops who left the mic on?

  23. I’m looking forward to the first poll where the fieldwork was done after May became PM, and better still after the cabinet is announced. Tories lead in the headline of this thread by 8 points. If there is a bounce as usually happens, will it go up to 12 points? That’s my prediction anyway.

  24. @Allan C

    Ah, well, there’s still the return leg…

  25. “When the government caves in on free movement, she has three human shields to take the bullets.”

    ————

    Figures. Human shields been in short supply since demise of the LDs…

  26. @CR

    I know almost nothing about Rudd. I think the political situation with the police has settled down a bit now. I expect we’ll get hit with another round of budget cuts, after the Brexit adjustment and the New Priorities kick in, but I doubt she’ll try and further reforms of our pay and conditions.

    We’ve been offered 1% this year (after years of pay freezes) and the fed are arguing for 2.8% but I don’t think the fed have any influence any more.

    She isn’t a career politician, which may or may not be a good thing. Hopefully she’ll come with an open mind, and take advice, but not get too “captured” by the system. May’s mention of the disproportionately harsh treatment of black people in the CJ system in her speech may signal further cultural changes in the police, but we’ve moved so far and so fast already it’s quite hard to see what more can be done. Perhaps the Home Secretary will push through May’s reforms to stop and search powers, which had been seen as too politically sensitive by Cameron. I expect the S60 search powers will probably go, which would be fine by me.

    I think she’ll continue with the IP bill, and we’ll get more talk about how CSE, Domestic violence and human trafficking are the priorities, but the difficulties in tackling those offences are inherent and it may there’s not much more any politician can do about it.

  27. @ Neil A

    “we’ve moved so far and so fast already it’s quite hard to see what more can be done”

    I thought that the Metropolitean Police is still considered as institutionally racist …

  28. Neil A

    Thats interesting, sound like good moves but not ones that would make the Tory right happy

  29. Pete B

    Laszlo mentioned a Ipsos poll earlier which had a lead of one, so don’t get your hopes up too much

  30. @ Pete B

    ICM may give 12%.

    But will Ipsos give 4%?

  31. Two polls without any movement is surprising, either folk are too shellshocked to form an opinion or the recent drama doesn’t interest them at all. The next poll must show movement

  32. @Allan Christie

    Except that’s not actually what our Foreign Minister does.

    According to the current remit, Boris’s job will be “policy strategy, honours, Whitehall liaison and cyber-security”.

    None of which are actual real ministerial jobs. But let’s take a look at them…

    “Policy Stategy” is a kind way of saying that Boris won’t actually be in charge of Foreign Policy, that being one of the powers of the PM, but he’ll occasionally know what the policy is before the press do.

    “Honours” means… uh… well, he has to sign off on the Commonwealth’s submissions to the Queen’s list.

    “Whitehall Liason”. He can talk to himself all he wants.

    And finally, “Cyber Security”, which notationally means he is in charge of the national cyber security policy. The national cyber security policy is that all the other departments should come up with cyber security policies.

  33. LAszlo and Rache

    Have Ipsos been more accurate than ICM recently?

  34. @Laszlo,

    Well, perhaps, but the commissioner said that society as a whole was institutionally racist and that as a subset of society the police were not immune to it.

    May honed in on the biggest remaining bugbear, which is the unequal treatment within the criminal justice system. There may be all sorts of reasons why certain groups may be more likely to commit certain crimes, to be stopped/searched etc. But there is evidence that for an individual in a specific set of circumstances, with a particular criminal history (or otherwise) and a particular offence the chances of being prosecuted and imprisoned are higher for black people. More work and effort needs to go into understanding where that disparity arises and what can be done about it. But in general I think the police are unrecognisable from the force even that I joined, and had already changed quite a lot before that.

  35. On further reflection, and seeing the American reaction, I wonder if she has been too clever by half by appointing Johnson as Fall Guy Minister.

    The whole single market/freedom of movement bind is extremely difficult to resolve though so perhaps she thought having a human shield was worth it, despite upsetting the Americans.

  36. It is amusing reading the reaction here on a UK board compared to the reaction of Scottish social media. 1. May is creating the most right wing cabinet for 30 years 2. Boris’s appointment is greeted with a mixture of horror and laughter. And we all remember Thatcher’s St Francis of Assisi speech & we know how that worked out.

    From Scotland it is difficult to express how alienating this whole shenanigans is. A PM who resigns basically in disgrace and our MPs are expected to clap, the hushed differential tones of the BBC, the curtesy to the Queen and now a rude buffon as the most senior diplomat – seriously??

    Look folks I know you’ve voted for little England but you should care what other countries think of you, especially as you expect them to give you favourable trade deals. Your, insouciance regarding Boris’s gaffes when you are out of the EU and dependent on goodwill is in Yes Minster terms brave.

    I am interested in the next polls we have has no Scottish polling since the three polls in the immediate aftermath of EURef but anecdotally there is a swing from No to Yes. Of course the parties will have carried out private polling and the SNP politicians are acting very confident. So, I think the next polls will show reasonable Yes leads.

    I think May will be too busy with all her other problems and so will leave the question of ‘saving the union’ to Ruth Davidson. Davidson was made privy councillor and I am half expecting her to be made Secretary of State for Scotland, because Mundell is useless, we’ll see tomorrow.

  37. @ Neil A

    I have to admit that it is a hell of a difficult problem – how do you recognise certain types of criminal acts in an ethnic group, and yet not to be racially biased.

    A friend of mine use to be a police (lieutenant) officer in Hungary and had the same problem. However, he was quite clear about the ethnic bias of his superiors, and ethnicity as a guidance in his everyday work.

    What I appreciated in his view the most (after all, he is my friend, not to mention that in 1987 I almost ended up of becoming a police officer) was that he has never talked about improvement in this ethnic bias, but about distinguishing between different factors. If it wasn’t a public board, I would go further, but I’m sure you understand what I’m saying.

    It is a political issue – quite clearly seen in public opinion. As long as the police can handle it appropriately, it doesn’t become a factor of radicalisation either pro or con. It seems everything is perception…

  38. @ Couper

    “It is amusing reading the reaction here on a UK board compared to the reaction of Scottish social media.”

    I think your reading is being rather selective.

    The fact that there are a number of appointments from the right of the Conservative Party, and that they are ‘shop soiled’ has been mentioned.

    Likewise the disjuncture between what is said by Conservative PMs (or indeed those of any hue) at the time they arrive in power and what they go on to enact.

    As for Boris – I’d say that a mixture of laughter, tears, jubilation (from some) and bewilderment about sums it up.

    A few – myself included – have expressed concern for what his presence will do to aid (or damage) our diplomatic relations.

    On Ruth Davidson being appointed SoS for Scotland – as able a politician as she is, I don’t believe she’s currently elected or appointed to Westminster. As such her appointment to a UK executive role in the UK Cabinet, whilst not being answerable to the UK Parliament would be unprecedented (except in case of emergency) in modern times.

    You might, of course, regard the current circumstances as an emergency.

  39. @ Pete B

    Nobody knows if ICM or Ipsos are more precise as there hasn’t been an election for 14 months.

    In any case, Ipsos gave 9% lead to the Conservatives back in January which reduced step by step.

    What surprised me is that 1) it went unreported (while all the plotters refer to the 8% (understandably) in this topic); 2) that either way it is quite astonishing that anyone would want to vote for Labour considering the mayhem that the plotters created, which may call a bit of reflections on what is actually going on; 3) what is behind this apparent stability of the polls considering all the upheaval.

    I don’t say that the Ipsos one is not an outlier, but I think all the three points I made are worth a thought – both on their own merits and together.

  40. @Couper
    “A PM who resigns basically in disgrace and our MPs are expected to clap, the hushed differential tones of the BBC, the curtesy to the Queen”

    1. Cameron wasn’t in disgrace. He resigned by choice. After promising he’d see it through, admittedly.
    2. My understanding (perhaps wrong) was that clapping was a rarity in H0C until the SNP introduced it.
    3. She’s your queen too, you know.

    Good night all.

  41. Could Davidson be ennobled? Peers can sit in Holyrood, right? George Ffoulkes and David Steel both did. Has that changed?

    I’m not suggesting that she will be, or would want to be, but it does make it technically possible to be party leader at Holyrood and SoS simultaneously, in theory at least.

  42. @Lazlo

    I think the current polls are unreliable. Labour are actually 5 points ahead in ipsos-mori before adjustments. Too much is happening so people are reserving judgement that’s probably why the polls are stable. I think we will have to wait until the Autumn before get an appreciation of any changes.

    Btw I saw something on Twitter regarding a new Labour leadership poll with Corbyn maintaining his 10% lead over Eagle, has it been mentioned here?

    I actually don’t think 2020 is lost for Labour but they need to get behind Corbyn or find a charismatic leader, why isn’t someone like Keir Stammer standing?

  43. Laszlo

    The Ipsos mori poll was reported on in the Guardian but only selectively, that is they only reported the popularity numbers. Typical guardian they messed that up as well by presenting the numbers with a mathematical and logical mistake. Claiming that smaller numbers are bigger than larger numbers is really shocking, even more shocking was i seemed to be the only one who noticed

  44. @ Cooper2802

    Yes, I agree (except for Stammer – because then the question who would be behind him, or rather influence him). Otherwise I can’t really add anything, but I wanted to acknowledge your points.

  45. @Neil A
    I think that is possible, and yes Peers can be in the cabinet and they can sit in Holyrood – basically because Holyrood doesn’t recognise peerages etc so it is inconsequential.

    I think with a forthcoming fight over Scottish independence there is no obvious leader for the No campaign other than Davidson. Labour & LibDem SP16 voters voted 85% remain and both parties have members and politicians who now support independence. So, the plan would be to increase Davidson’s status and give her a rival authority to Nicola Sturgeon, the BBC in particular would then go to Davidson first for comments in news bulletins and so diminish the position of the First Minister.

    The flaw is that Ruth managed to get into the low 20s on a good day by disassociating herself with Westminster, so although that could be an issue it wouldn’t be beyond the wit of WM to manufacture a few issues in which WM is forced by Ruth to back down. The other problem is Ruth as SoS would probably unite the other parties in common cause against her. Still this is all speculation we shall see…

  46. I’ve seen a comment elsewhere comparing the campaign by the Labour establishment against corbyn and momentum to the campaign against the SNP, especially the vilification of the so called ‘cybernats’. Would any of the Scottish posters have an opinion on that?

  47. @ CambridgeRachel

    You may find something interesting in this. Don’t be put off by the author – it was long before he became what he became.

    In general, Labour could learn from it in many ways, but they won’t.

    https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1907/06/20_2.htm

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