The Conservative leadership election is abruptly over while a Labour leadership election begins. No doubt there will be polling on those over the next couple of weeks. In the meantime ICM put out a new voting intention poll today, with topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%.

The eight point lead for the Conservatives is a slightly larger Tory lead than at the general election, and was conducted over the weekend so does not yet account for any honeymoon Theresa May may or may not enjoy. During the leadership election May ruled out the opinion of an early general election, so if she keeps her word she’ll resist the temptation of an early election while Labour are at one another’s throats. If not it may be an interesting result.

ICM rolled out a couple of methodology changes for today’s poll. Firstly they’ve dropped weighting turnout based on self-reported likelihood to vote and replaced it with a turnout model based on demographics, secondly they’ve started weighting by level of political interest – the poll was also conducted online rather than by phone, which seems to be increasingly the case for ICM polls. According to ICM the impact of the changes is typically to increase Tory support by about a point and decrease Labour support by about a point. Full tabs are here.


987 Responses to “ICM – CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15”

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  1. BARDIN
    Allan
    “I didn’t think of Grayling in terms of health – he has no background there that I am aware of.
    Maybe whatever happens to DWP. As her campaign manager if she doesn’t reward him she will really cement her Iron lady credential”
    _____

    That’s true and I think he will be in May’s cabinet announcements tomorrow. DWP could be a good shout..

  2. I am afraid the name Roland just makes me think of Rats!

  3. @Bardin

    Hence UKTI was made a non-ministerial department of the DTI. And has now apparently been promoted to being it’s own ministerial department under Fox.

  4. RAF

    “The juxtaposition of those two statements suggests Angela M is calling the shots…or it could just be the character limit on Twitter, one or the other”
    ______

    Don’t think Merkee is calling the shots but probably the fact that Brexit is the main issue facing May and Merkee being the queen of the EU.

  5. And Dark Towers….

  6. I’ve been thinking about the bully boys on the left – bricks through windows, death threats etc. They are the left-wing equivalent of the BNP. The only difference is that they are associated with Her Majesty’s Opposition. How much outrage would there be if an equivalent group did similar things in the name of the Tories I wonder?

  7. @CR

    I don’t think there are actually very many “Tory” posters on this board. Quite a few right-wing posters, perhaps, but for actual Tories you’re looking at Roly, BobinNorfolk, RMJ1, Colin and now Rich.

    Candy maybe. Me sort of.

    In my case, I don’t think I’ll need to do any contortions. May’s new direction (if it turns out to be real) is pretty much where I would be most comfortable. And I am far from convinced that a Brexit deal involving either a compromise on free movement, or a workable package of trade deals, is impossible. I think May, Davis and Johnson are probably a decent team to search for it.

    As for Davis and the “big brother agenda”, I don’t think there really is a big brother agenda. I am told that as Home Secretary May refused to allow some tactics that previous occupants (including Labour ones, of which there were many..) used to sign off.

    And the Investigatory Powers Bill, if that’s what people are worried about, doesn’t really advance surveillance powers very much. It merely codifies what there already is. The small increase in power is a specific response to technical developments (something called NAT that I won’t bore you with) that have largely removed the ability to trace the users of mobile phones that are connected to the internet.

    The IP bill’s already well into the parliamentary process anyway, and should complete by the end of the year. But even given that all that, I don’t think the Brexit brief will touch on such matters all that much.

    My main fear is that Davis will want to dispense with our membership of EuroPol, and ditch EAWs. That would be a backward step, in policing terms, although not remotely catastrophic.

  8. CARFREW
    “Looking back at the comments on UKPR from this afternoon the forum has gone from something resembling a who’s who of Chairman Mao’s little red book to Brexit utopia this evening.”
    ……….
    Allan, thank God you’re here!! Yep, bit of a change from the Footie boards, Allan. Don’t worry, season’ll soon be starting again
    _______

    I’m glad I’m here too. Don’t mention the footy forums, not after last nights result down at the Rock but at least the Reds put a smile on my face tonight with their win.

  9. Two months ago David Davis thought the UK could do separate trade deals with individual EU countries. No doubt he’ll learn on the job.

  10. @Jayblanc

    “Hence UKTI was made a non-ministerial department of the DTI. And has now apparently been promoted to being it’s own ministerial department under Fox.”

    Are we sure that’s what’s happening.

    It would be slightly odd to create two entirely new government departments and have three covering trade.

    I suspect there may be some changes in the rest of cabinet tomorrow, that leads to rationalisation of responsibilities.

    What we have today are the ‘Brexit(eer)-friendly’ appointments and ‘Great Offices of State’. We’ll get much more of the feel and balance of the administration and its broader priorities tomorrow.

  11. Pete B. Given Jeremy Corbyn is receiving death threats please confirm why you are suggesting this is the work of the left wing Labourites?

    Given that some right wing nutter has just murdered Jo Cox whilst other Labour MPs are also receiving death threats I struggle to comprehend the point you are making.

  12. Looks like the team from hell.

    Omnishambles shuffles back into view…

  13. Neil A

    How do you like rudd at the home office? Will she be a bit nicer to your lot?

  14. ASSIDUOSITY
    @Allan Christie

    “Building bridges from the first. Merkel, disregarding the venom directed at her from many on this forum, is probably the UK’s best, and certainly, most influential, friend in Europe right now”
    ____

    That’s true but I certainly don’t want to see the UK Kowtow to Germany. It’s as much in Germany’s interests to make Brext a smooth bolt from the EU as it is in the UK’s
    ………..
    RAF

    “Unless some Red Imps get in the way, in which case the season could be over before it has even started. Ain’t that so AC?”
    ___

    No comment. ;-)
    .

  15. CROSSBAT11
    Remember this. 84 MPs from the current governing party thought Andrea Leadsom would be a good leader and excellent Prime Minister.

    Slightly OTT there, I think.

    Ms May has set the task of the Three Brexiteers and if they succeed collectively in securing a cheap and effective EU departure, meeting all their own campaign promises they will be welcomed back as heroes and garlanded with laurels.

    OTOH, should the remainers prove to have been right and they achieve little or nothing then they will be pilloried and left to rot on the back benches whilst the grown-ups do their best to sort out the mess they created.

    Personally, I’m hoping Leadsom is made #2 to Fox and spends the next few years jetting around the world achieving nothing.

  16. @ Pete B

    Just for the record, Cox was murdered by a right wing person.

  17. Thank you Nick P. I would have thought the current team from hell barely deserves the word team, it is the Labour party.

  18. A good set of choices for the first few appointments, looking to unite the party and put in place a solid and experienced team.

    Comparing the new government front bench with what the opposition have to offer, is a bit like a pre-season friendly between Manchester City and Accrington Stanley.

  19. @Assiduosity

    That’s the point. Foreign Trade had already been removed from the Foreign Office’s remit, and given to the DTI. Now it’s apparently becoming it’s own Ministry independent of either the Foreign Office or the DTI (which presumably gets a name change? Department of Domestic Trade and Industry?)

  20. Given the situation shouldn’t the summer recess be cancelled or at least dramatically shortened? I presume that’s possible

  21. ANDREW111
    I am afraid the name Roland just makes me think of Rats!

    How coarse. Not heard of the death of Roland in 778 at Roncesvalles, which gave Charlemagne & co enough time to live and fight another day?

    Something similar could well be the fate of the Three Brexiteers.

  22. Assiduosity

    Caring what some “personality” or footballer thinks is the height of ignorance in my particular book. Especially a footballer who is part of the BBC firmament.

  23. “A good set of choices for the first few appointments, looking to unite the party and put in place a solid and experienced team.
    Comparing the new government front bench with what the opposition have to offer, is a bit like a pre-season friendly between Manchester City and Accrington Stanley.”

    I refer the ladies and gentlemen of UKPR to my earlier post.

    M’lud.

    :-)

  24. “It’s as much in Germany’s interests make Brexit a smooth bolt from the EU as it is in the UK’s”

    Really?.

    The UK makes 44% of its exports to the EU, whereas Germany makes 4.4% of it’s exports to the UK. So it’s probably about 10 times more in our interests to maintain the best possible trade deal as it is for Germany.

  25. CROSSBAT
    Yes Corbyn would have been a much better choice. Not to mention
    Ed Miliband.

  26. Waiting for the inevitable hasborisbeensackedyet.com

  27. By the way, what are we to make of the resurrection of old fossils like Davis and Fox?

    I remember these wizened stalwarts parading around TV studios as opposition spokesmen eons ago. Pretty unimpressively too, if I remember rightly.

    I recall May from those faraway days too, equally underwhelming.

    The Return of the Living Dead springs to mind.

    :-)

  28. @ RH

    “Caring what some “personality” or footballer thinks is the height of ignorance in my particular book. Especially a footballer who is part of the BBC firmament.”

    Ah, so you do know who Mr Lineker is, contrary to your earlier…

    “Who the hell is Gary Lineker? The name “Gary” suggests a 1940’s
    rhinestone cowboy or a soccer player.”

    As I said…

    The only thing worse than ignorance is (badly) feigned ignorance.

  29. Had to smile at this from the Grungiad – “James Schneider – a national organiser for Momentum, the pro-Corbyn grassroots group ……. said his group had mobilised huge support for Corbyn in six days, with 25,000 people attending 35 events. Schneider said the group were using the leadership campaign to try out ways to mobilise for an election. “We’ve learned a lot from Bernie Sanders,””

    I’m assuming that the Bernie Sanders who has just lost the presidential race, without even getting the backing of his own party?

    There was a time when Labour looked to learn from the Bill Clintons and Barak Obamas of this world – now they’re down to learning from the semi finals losers.

  30. JAMES E

    “The UK makes 44% of its exports to the EU, whereas Germany makes 4.4% of it’s exports to the UK. So it’s probably about 10 times more in our interests to maintain the best possible trade deal as it is for Germany”
    ___

    Rather than rubbishing the UK you might want to read this report on German and UK imports and exports.

    German exports to UK..89.2 billion euros
    UK exports to Germany.. 38.3 billion euros..

    So again I say…”It’s as much in Germany’s interests make Brexit a smooth bolt from the EU as it is in the UK’s

    Do try harder…

    https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/ForeignTrade/TradingPartners/Tables/OrderRankGermanyTradingPartners.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

  31. Mike Pearce and Laszlo
    Yes, that Labour MP was murdered by a nutcase. The point I was making is that the brick through Angela Eagle’s window, and apparent intimidation of NEC members was apparently carried out by Corbyn supporters. I appreciate that in his meek and mild way he has condemned them but they are still doing it in the belief that they are supporting him in some fashion. The fact that they at least believe that they are in some way associated with the Labour Party is quite worrying.

  32. Inspired appointments so far. Boris has to prove his brilliance or sink without trace. Personally I think he will deliver. A bold appointment neverthe less.
    What for Gove? chief Whip? He has proved himself as a bxxtard after all.

  33. Umm, @Alan C – That 38.2 billion euros of exports to Germany? Given what’s happened to the pound since the 23rd of June, best make that around 34 billion now?

  34. @”The Return of the Living Dead”

    Jez We Can…………probably?

  35. ROBERT NEWARK
    What for Gove?

    Given what seems to have been the plan so far is to put Brexiteers in the front line to prove they were right, why not make him SoS for NI with a remit to square the circle by retaining the CTA and the GFA post exit?

  36. ROBERT

    @”What for Gove? ”

    The Outer Darkness-with his friend Osborne ?

  37. ALEC

    Stop being pedantic… ;-)

  38. Justin Greening will get something biggish -she was always in the front row at TM rallies.

    I think its going to be Ladies Day tomorrow.

  39. @Roland Chouensapper

    “CROSSBAT
    Yes Corbyn would have been a much better choice. Not to mention
    Ed Miliband.”

    Miliband maybe slightly more so than Corbyn, I think, but I get your gist.

    I think the time is right for all those of us in centre left politics to unite around a common cause, and that includes you. If you really believe someone like Corbyn, or Miliband, should be leading the country, get out there and fight for it.

    People of Berkhampstead, Tunbridge Wells and Maidenhead; get off your knees, rise up and fight for what you know is right.

  40. @Andrew 111

    “And Dark Towers.”

    A “Look And Read” reference. You don’t see many of them these days. I miss Dark Towers.

  41. COLIN @ ROBERT
    The Outer Darkness-with his friend Osborne ?

    Like Cameron, Osborne had to go as penance for overdoing Project Fear 2.

    Gove is more dangerous and, like the Three Brexiteers already appointed, needs to be given a near-impossible task so that he can be sacked ceremonially should he fail, if only as a warning to other leavers amongst the lobby fodder.

  42. @Robert Newark

    ”What for Gove?”

    Well, there may be a vacancy at Health. He’s yet to fall out with the medical profession.

    Then there’s Transport. Just think: West London based Michael Gove could be in charge of Ladbroke Grove. They might even rename the station in his honour :)

  43. So Liam Fox, the guy who was sacked for effectively trying to run a private business out of the Defence Office, has been made Minister for International Trade?

    I mean why not.

  44. @ Allan C

    I certainly wasn’t “rubbishing the UK” . You need to bear in mind that we stand to lose trade with all 27 EU countries, whereas Germany stands to lose only it’s UK trade.

  45. @Colin

    “Justin Greening will get something biggish -she was always in the front row at TM rallies.”

    TM rallies? I must have missed something. Where and when?

    That said, maybe TM doesn’t stand for Theresa May.

    Got to be Transcendental Meditation, I’m guessing. Lots of repetitive mantras involved in all that. Hypnotic stuff.

    Makes sense now when I think of Greening.

    :-)

  46. @Rolly

    “Grayling universally seen as incompetent. By whom, a 16 year old brick thrower?”

    Perhaps, but I was thinking of the legal profession – here’s a sample.

    http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/07/epic-grayl-the-sequel-just-when-you-thought-it-was-safe-to-be-governed-again-heres-grayling/

  47. “Justin Greening will get something biggish…”

    I’m thinking risqué jokes here and Boris Johnson references.

    Time I retired for the night, I think.

    :-)

  48. “If you really believe someone like Corbyn, or Miliband, should be leading the country, get out there and fight for it.”

    Corbyn can’t even lead his MPs, never mind the country.

    Ed Miliband isn’t even the best politician in his own family.

    The prospect of Labour (or any breakaway group which splits from it) winning a GE anytime soon only exists in the fevered imaginations of those on here with red-tinted glasses.

  49. Good to see May has given the Brexiters plenty of rope. Now we just have to sit back and watch them put it to good use.

  50. @ BZ

    “…The Three Brexiters…”

    Ok, so which is which?

    Athos – Davis
    Porthos – Boris
    Aramis – Fox?

    And in that case Gove must be D’Artagnan, surely?

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