It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

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  1. I wonder how long Carney’s sugar rush will last.

  2. Assiduosity

    Surely that’s not a boast is it?

  3. assiduity
    fair enough
    i was at that event too
    it had almost no media coverage
    and my impression was very different to yours!

  4. I’m thinking more in terms of tariffs.

    If there is instability in the Eurozone, the Euro could well decline as well.

  5. NEIL A, the houses we need building aren’t really for the Islington set though. I can’t see your affordable homes being 4 story high and well sound proofed etc.

  6. For those watching BBC, the chap in the white and black checked shirt (Jules) is a big-time BTL landlord.

  7. @hawthorn,

    Unless the EU do somethingto tackle youth unemployment the whole thing will come down inside 5-10 years.

  8. @ Roland Haines

    “Surely that’s not a boast is it?”

    LOL. Not at all. My meetings with Mr C were decidedly perfunctory.

  9. @Hawthorn:

    Interesting. I’m glad he’s displaying the classic British values of democracy and tolerance. The decision was made and while I understand people might be disappointed, I don’t think people should be bitter or argue against the result. It’s only going to make things worse.

  10. Rich

    I agree with that. The EU economic policy is even worse than Cameron’s. If it had applied to the UK I would have probably voted out.

    But it didn’t.

    We already had an incredible deal with the EU and we have flushed it away.

  11. He is a good guy. He never raised my rent in ten years!

  12. Congratulations to @PeteB, @Bantams & @RedRich on their accurate predictions.

    Unfortunately, my attempt to wish my preferred result into being failed abysmally.

  13. Colin

    “What was it/is it that has so separated Metropolitan Liberals & Scots Nats from the English Shires & the Northern Working Class?”

    media

    They don’t have personal experience so they absorb media stereotypes and media stereotypes are generally soft left ones.

  14. “So what then, are we to make of the final Populus poll?”

    I wonder if it effected the markets.

  15. So the people have spoken – the bast*rds!

  16. Hawthorn: “It is true that it is in the interests of Germany’s carmakers to give us a good deal, but it is in Frankfurt’s interests to stiff us.”

    And that’s the outcome that those on the Brexit side are pursuing.

    Of course rEU will be happy to concede free trade in goods. As many on the Brexit side have pointed out, why wouldn’t they?

    And of course they will offer us membership of the EEA, with continued membership of the EEA and free trade in services. But inevitably we will decline that, because we can’t accept continued free movement of labour.

    So we will end up with a Canada-style deal. Free trade in goods (mostly) but not in food or services. Car imports (and all the rest) will flow in unimpeded, but our services – the only area we’re competitive in and have a trade surplus in – will be severely handicapped.

    I don’t think many on the Brexit side have thought this through, or have the wit to do so. But as I said, this is a slow burn thing. Forget short-term market fluctuations. Though I note that Brexiters were claiming a big drop in the pound would save our bacon.

  17. Is Parliament legally bound to call another referendum after a new deal with the EU has been reached or can they just push it through if they like it themselves?

  18. @Hawthorn,

    I stayed off here all last night. Not sure what you mean by “us lot”. I suspect my motivations for narrowly plumping for “Leave” are atypical.

    @Pete1

    Hmm, really? Take a look at somewhere like the Chingford Hall Estate. Was once a network of concrete blocks and one of the worst places in outer London. Now replaced with winding streets of three storey terraced houses, occupied by low-income families. Still scruffy, still poor, still not somewhere I’d choose to live, but very much more human and liveable than it was.

    Low income families have more children than middle and high income ones, largely because the cost-benefit profile of childbirth is very different. Islington style homes would be ideal in my view. As for those needing 2 and 3 bed homes, low rise blocks can be ideal. Britain knew this in the 1920s and 1930s and many of the “villa” blocks built then are extremely desirable now.

  19. Tut tut Winchester voted remain. Anyway looking at the pound now might be a good time to visit Poundland

  20. PATRICK HADLEY

    The Lord Ashcroft polling does give final breakdowns and a lot more besides. It is not up on his website yet, but is online at his twitter feed

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft

    Thanks for that tip before – I’ve already been fascinated by some of the stuff and look forward to the report and tables. I’d expected something from Ashcroft before polling, but this should be very useful as his (often ignored) post-GE one was.

    The point I was making was that this is similar to the YouGov one last night (which gave age and education, though not other stuff) in that it is an online analysis (by definition self-selecting) of how people voted. So there may be the same problems with it as with polling, even after weighting to result. I’m not sure if BES are doing a follow up, but if they are that will also be interesting.

  21. Somerjohn

    *Gallic shrug*

  22. NEIL A, I don’t know those areas only my own so I’ll take your word for it.
    Though it’ll still mean losing a lot of people to stop the 1 million homes we need. Just wondering how this will affect NHS etc?

  23. The outers have to recognise that we namby-pamby university types are British too.

  24. NickP

    Why, this is Europe, nor are we out of it.

  25. It’s the revolt of the chav against the establishment- and Cameron must take responsibility for the mess we are now in. The Daily Mail, Express and Sun readers of this world will be gloating, but the consequences will affect them as well, as they will soon see.
    We can also kiss goodbye to Scotland – there will be another referendum and this time nationalists will win it.

  26. MRJONES

    “So what then, are we to make of the final Populus poll?”
    I wonder if it effected the markets.

    Probably not. The old saying of ‘buy on the rumour’ means that markets tend to take more notice of ‘secret’ sources of information such as that which was supposed to be coming from the private exit polls or whatever. The Populus poll at best added to the buzz.

    We still haven’t had the tables for it, by the way. Nor anything from Panelbase – though it’s possible their survey was not for immediate use.

  27. I suspect European market sell-offs are not because they fear losing British trade, but because they are afraid of the demands for further referenda that will inevitably come from UKIP’s far-right allies in France, the Netherlands, Austria etc.

  28. Wondering why the VoteLeave ‘victory’ press conference seems to have adopted to the tone of a memorial service.

    It may be that Johnson and Gove are making a pitch at being statesmanlike, auditioning for the role of chief negotiators, perhaps.

    However, I also note that the former Mayor of London kicked the application of Article 50 into the long grass. I’m not sure they intend to Brexit before the next scheduled general election.

  29. Just like any divorce, I don’t expect either side to be happy at the end of it and it will inevitably make everyone poorer (except for a few lawyers),

  30. The problem for provincial Engaland is that it is we Londoners who bankroll them.

    That shouldn’t be the case, but it is.

  31. Boris is auditioning for PM – Gove is auditioning for the power behind the throne…

  32. @John B
    “The only ‘non democratic’ stage in that is the putting together of proposals for discussion.” which is of course the critical stage and the whole point at issue.

    It could equally be said that our Cabinet (appointed by the exercise of the Prime Minister’s patronage) is also not democratic. The difference is that the members (if they are HoC MPs) must look over their shoulders at their electorate who can deselect them at the next general election. Moreover, our two houses of parliament have considerable powers to amend or reject proposed legislation. This does happen (sometimes to the extent of making a nonsense of an Act) . I don’t see this happening in the EU parliament, where the built-in rather left of centre consensus looks even more pronounced than in UK.
    Putting together a “Brexit” government to negotiate with the EU looks a bit of a task, given the EU stance of the majority of MPs. To what extent will they represent their constituents wishes rather than a party line? Leave is over 55% in many areas.

  33. Assiduosity

    They cannot wait that long due to the uncertainty such a wait would cause. That is without UKIP stirring the pot.

    The two year limit is designed to force a leaving country into a crummy deal (for us).

  34. @”It’s the revolt of the chav against the establishment”

    The idiots who are spouting this sort of stuff on Social Media this morning , simply don’t understand that it was this very sort of thing which alienated such a diverse majority against their patronising complacency.

  35. Well, we had polls which said it was too close to call, a few said Remain will win easily, and a few which said Leave will win easily.

    This Referendum has hardly redeemed the reputation of opinion polling in this country.

    Given how much the pound plummeted overnight, I’m glad I’ve been converting my savings into foreign currency in anticipation of this result. Thankfully, I didn’t believe this ComRes poll that predicted a Remain win.

  36. Jesus, strugeon has just pushed the red button. Little Englanders will miss that oil revenue. Anthony, run the Scottish Referendum poll now bud.

  37. Interesting feed back from my Italian wife who finds that there is a great deal of fury in her legal office in Edinburgh at outcome of the vote: “Once again, England dictates what Scotland will do” is a quote from a senior (previously Unionist colleague).
    Many who, in 2014, voted to remain in the UK now find themselves being forced to leave the EU, having been told that the only way of being sure to remain in the EU was to stay in the UK. We shall hear as the days go by what the general response in Scotland will be.

    A great speech from Nicola Sturgeon. As usual she hits the nail on the head. She is reassuring to those EU citizens who are here, working hard, paying taxes, contributing to our multi-cultural society.

    We shalll see: all options are open.

    Indyref 2: If the Scottish Parliament wants it. Democratic, no?
    But not the only option.

    Scotland does not want to leave the EU. Does it want to leave the UK? Difficult question.

  38. DSL

    No she has not, just listening to her, she says it is highly likely but they will take time to reflect.

  39. HAWTHORN
    Biggest fallacy going. Believed by good people such as yourself.
    BBC markets London businesses to world.
    Over 25% of BBC Licence fee from West and East Midlands. BBC spend in these regions under 1.5%. London subsidised.
    BBC huge magazine ownership (Very very many in WH Smiths), seed capital for purchase over 25% from East and West Midlands and 0% spent in region. Ditto BBC World, DVDs, etc
    Just one of very many examples of how London is subsidised by the regions but thfinances the colonies through the BBC, ITN, Channel 4, London based ‘national’ papers which are just local London papers sells the narrative the capital
    The EU plan was industry in Germany, agriculture in France, services in UK (aka London). The West Midland economy outperformed the US in the 1930s. We do not manufacture tvs, smartphones, computers, etc which we could be exporting to the world. Now we still can.

  40. John B

    Having just listened to her it was an OK speech but not great. I thought BJ was much better. You forget these things are just a matter of opinion.

  41. I think the two-year limit is more aimed at simply ensuring that something happens eventually (and let’s also be honest…without a limit of some sort, I think we could all see a bunch of Eurocrats dragging the withdrawal process out indefinitely in the hopes of getting the country’s voters to eventually elect a government willing to drop the withdrawal.

    By analogy, it’s to prevent something like a few agencies in the US are prone to do: They never refuse a loan application, they just stall and keep requesting more information until the applicant gives up or goes broke. Why? Well, a denial would be an action subject to being objected to, appealed, and potentially overturned…but “no action” is not subject to such efforts (generally). If there weren’t a limit then I could /easily/ see the process dragging out until 2020 while no agreement would mean no withdrawal.

  42. According to Le Monde, France are already demanding a start to the exit process as soon as possible.

  43. I called Leave consistently. I saw size of Leave vote. I did not see size of Remain turnout. So eat my hat on % of Leave win. God bless you all.

  44. It’s not up to France, they can demand all they like.

    The Lisbon Treaty is quite clear, the starting gun is fired by the government of the country that has decided to leave.

    All France can do is make their preference clear to the new UK PM, so they may as well not bother until October.

  45. MRJONES

    “What was it/is it that has so separated Metropolitan Liberals & Scots Nats from the English Shires & the Northern Working Class?”
    media
    They don’t have personal experience so they absorb media stereotypes and media stereotypes are generally soft left ones.

    Ironically you’re exactly wrong. The people who are most affected by the media are those older voters who are more likely the read and buy the newspapers and watch the main news bulletins[1] It is they who lap up the media stereotypes from those sources and regurgitate them.

    There’s a fascinating tweet from Ashcroft:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    which shows the stark differences[2] between attitudes to a whole range of such stereotypes by Remain and Leave voters.

    [1] Younger and better educated voters are more likely to use a variety of online sources as well as those and other social media too. SNP voters are much less reliant on conventional media because that is overwhelmingly unionist in Scotland.

    [2] It looks like a ‘forced choice’ so it will be a more extreme version of what people feel, but the differences are still big.

  46. Dave

    There is no ‘built in’ left of centre consensus in the EU Parliament. The members of the EU parliament are voted in by the electorate, i.e. by us. You might as well talk about a ‘built in’ right of centre bias to Westminster, just because, at the moment, there is a Conservative government. It’s utter tosh!

  47. Word has it Scotland is gearing up for indy ref 2. Scotland going back to the EU, NI uniting with the Republic, London declaring special status….at this rate poor ol PM Boris will be lucky to be left with Gibraltar and the isles of Scilly

  48. Roger Mexico

    “The Populus poll at best added to the buzz.”

    yeah

  49. Howard, I think that unless you’ve lived in Scotland, you won’t know how much independence means to them. She mentioned the word opportunity; that mean the Eu and the Euro. The biggest problem they had last time is removed; currency. The de facto currency won’t be pounds or petro-dollars now, it will be Euros. The SNP have their chance to do what UKIP did last night, achieve the aim of their very existence and reason for being. And oil/gas will make the rich.

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