It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

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  1. Well, what a rollercoaster ride that was.

    All eyes now on two things.

    The Conservative Party’s leadership election. What do Remainers do? Is there any Remainer figure who wants to be the person leading the Brexit negotiations? Even if there is could they possibly beat Boris? Is it more likely we’ll get a contest between Brexiteers, with Remainers backing a different Brexiteer rather than one of their own?

    The European Union’s political leaders, including the heads of government. Will there we signs of a backtracking on hardline stances? How will they balance their interest in discouraging further defections with their interest in not losing billions of Euros in revenue due to collapsing trade with the UK? In particular which voices in Germany will prevail?

    I am as shell-shocked as anyone, as once again the polls rather had me thinking that Brexit was impossible. No feeling for me (yet at least) of buyer’s remorse, though. A run on the pound and the FTSE were pretty much guaranteed short-term outcomes, particularly given the amount of trash talk the Remain campaign did about Brexit economics. Carney has a tough job to steady the ship without a political hand on the rudder (I think Cameron’s resignation is very premature – 12 months would have been more sensible than 3 months, but I can understand he will be very upset and his heart probably isn’t in it).

    I was never one of the starry eyed Brexiteers who thought leaving wouldn’t hurt the economy, so I am probably more relaxed about the turmoil than some others.

    My personal goal, of sticking a pin in the balloon of population growth and greenfield development, will probably be fully realised. Bovis shares have lost half their value. That suggests to me that a number of planned residential developments may be postponed, some of them semi-permanently. If the field next to my estate is spared the bulldozers, then that will be a cause of personal satisfaction.

    My Facebook feed is now full of stupid posts from the 99.9% of my “Friends” who are virulently anti-Brexit. It is a shame. What is needed is adjustment to the new reality and a determination to make what happens next as good as possible, even if it’s not what was wished for.

  2. @ Relick @ Rich

    I was referring to the voters a great majority of whom gave their reason as immigration: Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen have extremely low levels of immigrant communities yet voted to leave because of the that issue, how could I not be appalled
    anything you mention is policy, policy changes and can change attitudes take years to engender and decades to change.
    I simply make the point that I feel a sense of shame that my country has become so small minded.
    Nothing you could say will assuage my disappointment or reconcile me to conclude that this was anything other than an awful outcome to a dreadful debate which and a decision to hold a referendum which was made purely for internal party considerations. Europe torn asunder to keep the Tory party together, what an epitaph to Cameron’s premiership.

  3. Lord Ashcroft did a 12,000 sample referendum day poll, so anyone wanting to see a breakdown of polling by party, by social group and by the time of decision should go to his Twitter feed.

  4. I agree with WB wholeheartedly.

    The UK will disintegrate. England & Wales will close borders and jingoism, nationalism and fear will be rubber stamped with any failures in the sparkly new world blamed on new others to be scapegoated and barred or deported or worse.

    What’s worse for Scotland who will leave to stay in the EU is that the EU too is likely to fatally wounded and Scotland will be isolated and poor in the future.

    No concerted action against tax havens, the City sucking up more and more money, woe woe woe.

    We are likely to be at each other’s throats and god knows what happens next.

    Darkness over light.

  5. NEIL A, you think houses not being built is a good idea?

  6. pete1

    an example of the sort of nimbyism that won this result

  7. NickP

    Actually, the City may well get completely thrashed so you may well have a silver lining.

    John Mann not calling for Corbyn to resign.

  8. Trying to get out the Labour ‘in’ vote I was struck by how unnecessary this was in the areas populated by ‘young professionals’ (nurses, trainee doctors, games programmers, scientists etc). They were voting anyhow and many of them had ‘in’ stickers on their windows. My activities were also pretty useless in the council flats where most people seemed to be out or not answering their doors, and those who did seemed very reluctant to say how they would vote. My suspicion is that this latter group may be particularly reluctant to get involved in any form of polling or to give their opinion if they do and that many of them voted ‘leave’. If so this would explain why the polls seem again to have called it wrong at least to the extent that they confused the money markets. Has anybody done any work on what it is that differentiates those who a) participate in polls and b) answer key questions in them from those who do not?

  9. GATTINO, I’m not sure the south ever wanted or could afford N IRE but that didn’t stop the nutters.

  10. ROBERT NEWARK

    Thanks Robert, I cannot express how pleased i am………………freedom at last!!!

  11. And right on cue, exactly as I predicted a couple of threads back Nicola Sturgeon has begun campaigning for another independence referendum.

    This was always the strategy so far as I can see,

  12. TRISTAN

    I’m very interested to see the final breakdowns re: age and education levels.

    There won’t be any (there were no exit polls) except what we already know from polling. Any postmortems may well suffer from what biases the polls have. There have been some attempts to use the results from different counting areas set against their demographics, but that doesn’t really tell you about how individuals voted – there are too many interacting variables.

    As it happens the polls didn’t do that badly – at least compared to all those other supposedly infallible oracles such as the markets, the bookmakers and the political experts. The YouGov ‘On the Day Vote’ figures aren’t too far out[1]:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/640yx5m0rx/On_the_Day_FINAL_poll_forwebsite.pdf

    and shows, as all previous polls have, that the big predictor is age. Those under 50 voted for the EU, those over against, and the younger/older people are the more they follow that pattern. Other factors (SEG, education) may be important as well, but these tend to be linked with age. The young are more likely to be in non-manual jobs (even if not well paid) and to be educated to 18 and 21. So it is difficult to separate the factors. I suspect education levels also play a part but are not as important.

    Of course when such a momentous decision is taken against the will of the vast majority of the young (75% in that poll) and on a narrow margin, it throws its future legitimacy in doubt. Even without “buyer’s remorse”[2], it suggests that the country may not be behind an action by the time it is taken.

    [1] Leave 48% rather than 52% – just because the difference is crucial doesn’t mean it is large. I suspect differential turnout may be mainly responsible for the error.

    [2] I couldn’t help noticing last night when (for no good reason) it was being generally assumed that Remain had won, there were some hints of relief from some Leavers on here. People should be careful of what they wish for.

  13. other Howard

    “freedom at last”

    Stone walls do not a prison make,
    Nor iron bars a cage;
    Minds innocent and quiet take
    That for an hermitage;
    If I have freedom in my love
    And in my soul am free,
    Angels alone, that soar above,
    Enjoy such liberty

  14. After a rancorous battle a clear but highly divisive result.

    One only has to look at American politics to see how outcomes of 52/48% can polarise a country.

    The scenes outside Boris Johnson’s house this morning, where he was unable to make a statement to awaiting media due to the gathered hostile crowds sum up the situation perfectly.

    Just to be clear, I’m under no illusion: any prominent remainer would face a similar fate in much of England and Wales.

    The campaign and referendum have left a divided nation, or perhaps exposed fissures that were already there, and too often ignored by those in power.

    As @Colin has asked can anyone bring us back together?

    Looking forward there seem to be risks for both victors and vanquished.

    On the Leave side, it seems obvious that there was no clear plan for how to proceed if the vote went their way – indeed how could there be when the campaign team was such a broad assortment?

    Yet this group have scattered rash promises like confetti and built up massive expectations amongst the extraordinarily wide coalition that have supported them.

    Already this morning Cameron has gone, the markets have faltered – two things Leave assured would not happen. This perhaps was to be expected, but to hear Dan Hannan blithely declare that anyone who thought that speedy reductions in European migration would follow on from the vote was going to be ‘sadly disappointed’ and Nigel Farage disown the £350million ‘for the NHS’ claim. Such pronouncements verge on the disingenuous, these were cornerstones of the prospectus on which many were persuaded to vote out.

    Another risk, I think, is to postpone – without any programme – formal negotiations with the EU in order to make way for a Conservative party leadership battle and ‘political strategy discussion’. The people have voted for Brexit, to delay their decision for party politics simply plays into the idea that the convenience of the elite trumps the will of the people.

    Unless the ‘mainstream leavers’ want to create an opportunity for arch opportunist Farage to establish a permanent populist power base that harries and guides their negotiations, indeed their every political move, they need to move swiftly and seize the process of disengagement from the EU.

    As for Labour? Some move against Corbyn seems inevitable, his campaign was lacklustre and halfhearted – I simply do not buy the notion that the media ‘did not want to cover him’. More to the point, as a friend of mine said at the time of his election – ‘I can’t see him cutting it Hartlepool. How true that has proved.

    Scotland gone, the party must re-engage with the Midlands and ensure it doesn’t now lose its Northern heartlands.

    We live in troubled times.

  15. @Pete1

    In short, “yes”. Developing homes on greenfield sites is a “necessary evil” like building prisons and aircraft carriers.

    I support the building of prisons if there’s no alternative. I support the building of aircraft carriers if there’s no alternative. But I’d prefer to live in a world where we don’t need to build new prisons, we don’t need to have aircraft carriers and where we don’t need to build new homes.

    As for “NIMBY” well, if you assume that I think of the entire planet as my back yard, then I’ll take that label with pride. It’s not that I want housing diverted from my postcode to somewhere else in the UK. I want it to not be needed, because of the damage it does to the natural environment.

    What I would strongly support would be the redevelpment of much of the UK’s post-war housing estates to make them better quality, more attractive and denser. But there aren’t such quick profits in that, so I can understand why the “money for old rope” house-building companies want us to give up our countryside.

  16. WB

    “a decision to hold a referendum which was made purely for internal party considerations”

    Lisbon

  17. Wales want more money from rest of UK (presumably England?) to replace EU money- didn’t they vote to leave the EU?

    Lots of fury ahead.

  18. Rich: “I never thought I would say this, but as I walked up to the village centre past people beeping horns and even saw a flag, I felt metaphorically and socially poorer. Can’t put my finger on why.”

    We have chosen to walk out of a community. Even if you don’t like the community, there is bound to be a sense of loss. Imagine what it’s like for those of us who regard Europe as our home.

  19. ROBERT NEWARK

    Exactly, the market reaction is unsurprising and indeed not as much as i expected short term.

  20. DAVID CARROD, you think people like Johnson who are anti NHS are really going to give it more money?

  21. Went on an overseas news website and it was calling today the UK’s Black Friday.

    Given that the impact is bigger than Black Wednesday ever was then seems appropriate I guess.

    Certainly it is pretty Black for the markets and 48% of the people.

  22. Given the usual margin of error of poll results, the polls could hardly go wrong:
    Leave 50% +/3%; Remain 50%+/3%

  23. @RogerMexico “TRISTAN

    ‘I’m very interested to see the final breakdowns re: age and education levels.’

    There won’t be any (there were no exit polls) except what we already know from polling.”

    The Lord Ashcroft polling does give final breakdowns and a lot more besides. It is not up on his website yet, but is online at his twitter feed @LordAshcroft.

  24. +/ = +/-

  25. Hell hath no limits, nor is circumscribed
    In one self-place; for where we are is hell,
    And where hell is, there must we ever be.

    (Marlowe)

  26. Thoughtful

    Nicola Sturgeon has not started to campaign for another indyref. The question is how Scots will react to being taken out of the EU against their (our) will. It is for us in Scotland to decide our next step – Nicola Sturgeon included, but on ths matter she will follow where the people lead, not vice versa.
    We are not being subjected to any pressure from the SNP. If anything, the SNP will be under pressure to consider the next steps very carefully. And what Ruth Davidson says will also be important, of course. Where this leaves Labour in Scotland is anyone’s guess.

  27. NEIL A, denser? Not sure how you make houses better quality and more attractive while making them denser?

    As for not needing said houses the only way that will happen is if we lose a million or so people.

  28. At the risk of advocating “nastiness becoming policy”, I agree that some restrictions on “free movement of labor” (as well as ex-EU immigration in general) need to be agreed. I know I’ve banged on about this, but given the nature of a passport control-free zone such as Schengen there needs to be better control exercised (e.g. common standards of who can/can’t be admitted as well as limits on refugee admission). There probably also needs to be a “hard bar” on the EU being able to “foist” migrants/refugees on any country like was attempted last year.

    Note that I’m not talking about zero immigration by any stretch, but there’s a far cry between that and a situation so unmanageable that (per the BBC) Germany “lost” 130,000 migrants from 2015 by early 2016. The sad thing is that this train wreck resulted from honorable, humanitarian, and idealistic instincts…but I think part of the problem is that it was also done without any real sense of popular support (and indeed a feeling that too many folks in various categories had been admitted and then not integrated…we can dispute the correctness of these assertions, but plenty of people seem to believe in them). Insert comments about infernal highway construction materials here.

    The other side to this is that, bluntly, the EU needs to be reworked. The present structure is such a tangle that I doubt very much that the average voter could point to who is actually responsible for what (even I get a little confused at the flowchart), and the structure seems to me to be set up in such a way as to ensure that the rest of the government can (broadly) do whatever without the Parliament being able to stop them (witness the Parliament not being able to initiate legislation…only the Commission can do that) short of sacking the whole Commission (and the Commission’s members aren’t there to represent their governments, they’re supposed to be “neutral”).

    Basically, there’s a limited policy prescription to be had here…but there’s a deeper issue in how the EU was built which needs fixing very badly. Based on the “vote until you get it right” attitude the EU has taken in the past (the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty comes to mind, but the Danish [1992/93] and Irish [2008/09] referendum affairs also do) likely put in the back of many folks’ minds over the years “They’ll never stop pushing”.

  29. nickp

    We are free to vote in or out any party who we feel are not representing us and they in turn together with our judiciary can make or repeal our laws without interferance from unelected Brussels beurocrats who’s sole interest is not for soverign states but for a united states of Europe run by them

    Its called DEMOCRACY

  30. NickP

    Nice quote but more appropriate to the EU not the UK surely?

  31. I don’t really understand how cameron can say is hanging on for a tory leadership election and new leader will trigger article 50.

    He should resign and go NOW and new PM put in place and they should either quit or take some other action. The UK is not extension of the Tory party (or shouldn’t be, anyway)

  32. Just woken up in Capri after a long night up, dare I walk the streets?

    I kept saying on here about postal votes being the key, my back of a fag packet calculation said Remain needed 80% turnout to have a chance of winning. Who won on prediction, I was a bit out I think.

  33. nickp

    “We are free to vote in or out any party who we feel are not representing us and they in turn together with our judiciary can make or repeal our laws without interferance from unelected Brussels beurocrats who’s sole interest is not for soverign states but for a united states of Europe run by them
    Its called DEMOCRACY”

    Eh? Who elects out House of Lord and other judiciary? Who elected the “independent” governor of Bank of England?

    Plenty of unelected functionaries on mainland UK.

  34. I don’t think short-term market fluctuations are what matters in gauging the economic impact of Brexit. It will be the investment decisions of companies over the next few years that determine economic growth.

    That in turn will depend mainly on what sort of deal is negotiated. If it’s a Norway-style settlement there should be no great impact. But if we end up outside the Single Market, then the attractiveness of the UK as a base for investment will suffer.

    That’s where the debate will shift in the next few months. We’ve decided we want Brexit. The next battle will be over what sort of Brexit.

    Actually, I don’t think whatever government emerges will have any choice but to exit the Single Market. To agree continued free movement of labour would make a mockery of the public’s vote. As that becomes clear, the toll on inward investment will start to mount, and take its economic effect.

  35. @Pete1

    Have you ever been to Islington? Some of the most desirable and expensive houses on the planet are narrow, four stories tall, have cellars, abut directly onto narrow streets and have small rear gardens.

    Have you ever been to Plymouth (or insert name of any one of 100 other towns and cities). Some of the least desirable and cheapest houses in the country are two stories high, with small patches of (un-, under- or mis-used) garden on three sides and face on to ample boulevards.

    There is plenty of scope for increasing density by 10-20% on estates and still having a much nicer environment, plus the benefits of energy efficiency and proper construction to help low-income families manage their finances and avoid health problems.

    I am completely open to a large dose of helicopter money / “people’s QE” being spent on this. In some ways I am becoming increasingly sympathetic to John McDonnell, and think that Labour picked the wrong Militant to lead them.

  36. Assiduity you dont buy the media ignoring lab?
    i Iknow of many big events where not a single bbc or itv reporter even attended
    Can you explain the measured 4% news coverage
    can you excuse it?
    Particularly by the bbc whose duty it was to give coverage to the main opposition whatever you think of its leader
    Again i ask did you attend for yourself any Corbyn events?
    Have you seen him yourself or do you pass lacklustre judgement based on second hand media interpretation?
    The media did the same to Miliband
    In the flesh he is actually quite attractive and definitely engaging but without seeing for themselves people believed the carp hype

  37. NEILA

    @”My Facebook feed is now full of stupid posts from the 99.9% of my “Friends” who are virulently anti-Brexit. ”

    Me too-the worst of which is the number of young people flapping around accusing the “old” of destroying their future.

    One wonders if these folk have ever understood that Free Speech applies to Everyone-or it is worthless?

    What these bright young things could usefully do now is step down from their No Platform pedestals , in their Safe Space cocoons and apply their intellect to the divisions in our society :-

    What was it/is it that has so separated Metropolitan Liberals & Scots Nats from the English Shires & the Northern Working Class?

    Why is the view from London so different from that in the rest of England?

    Of course they would have to stop hammering “racist bigot” & ” old fogey” into their keyboards for a moment , and go and meet some the people they love lampooning so if they really want to answer those questions.

  38. ROBERT NEWARK

    Further to our comments on the markets the Footsie 100 is now down 4.8% but look at elsewhere in Europe, Dax -6.2%, CAC40 – 7,5%, IBEX -10%.

    I think this tells us how much Europe needs our trade, all this chat of them giving us a hard time is overplayed.

  39. Somerjohn

    I think it depends on what part of the economy wins out in mainland Europe.

    It is true that it is in the interests of Germany’s carmakers to give us a good deal, but it is in Frankfurt’s interests to stiff us.

  40. When’s the next poll due out?

  41. Colin/Neil A

    You lot have had your say.

    You will have to listen to some other people too now.

  42. Roy

    When will you stop this nonesense of ‘unelected Brussels bureaucrats’ governing us? After much discussion, the Brussels civil service puts forward proposals. They come to the Commissioners (chosen by the democratically elected governments) and then to the Council of Ministers (democratically elected) and then to the democratically elected European Parliament. The only ‘non democratic’ stage in that is the putting together of proposals for discussion.

  43. HAWTHORN

    @”You will have to listen to some other people too now.”

    Been doing that for ever -on UKPR :-) :-) :-)

  44. So what then, are we to make of the final Populus poll?

    My opinions are unprintable I think.

  45. yes, some of polling was pretty indefensibly wrong.

  46. @Tully

    “Again i ask did you attend for yourself any Corbyn events?”

    I was at Mr Corbyn’s much heralded referendum ‘campaign launch’ speech at the University of London’s Senate House.

    In a previous professional capacity I had to meet with Jeremy quite often over a few years, albeit this was before he became the superstar he is today.

    I’d say I’ve probably seen more of ‘Jez’ in the flesh that most people.

  47. @Bantams:

    Actually you were only 0.2% off. Not bad!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BGPMeQyrbCvmGzctrWnvaAV6xNXJNm1BP9WOZZWZ8bM/edit#gid=0

    Prediction link again. Pete B and RedRich were closest on voting intention prediction. Turnout prediction was got right by Heather, DrMibbles (when he revised) and DaveM. Good job folks.

  48. The worlds biggest omelette could be made from the egg on the faces of those who think they are a lot cleverer than they are.
    Next topics, who will lead the Tories, who will lead Labour and how long will the EU last.

  49. Hawthorn

    re: German cars

    A fall in the pound – even if only 5% – will reduce the ability of German manufacturers to sell vehicles here.

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