It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

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  1. I’m passionately pro- Unionist, and am no fan on the SNP, but I think Scotland would be completely within its rights to hold a second referendum given the result overnight. And I do believe that Scotland remains more likely to leave the Union overall than NI.

  2. UKIP will soon be a misnomer.

  3. Farage savaged on GMB after admitting that well after all perhaps the NHS wont be getting that money the Leave campaign promised in the ads….

    Theres some sort of ironic semi-tragedy in watching him now… what will he do?

  4. What happens in Europe is in many ways more important than what happens here. European leaders will be concerned with the stability of the union and will not be able to concentrate for some time on brexit negotiations. We may find that we are no longer considered important.

  5. Kuensberg reporting a Cameron to resign rumour.

  6. Time for Ken Clarke to tidy up another mess, I think.

  7. PEEBEE

    Farage’s role is to be a gadfly for whoever has to manage this mess.

  8. Cameron live now.

  9. Cameron is resigning.

  10. He’s going to resign in 3 months!

    What a [email protected]

  11. NICKP

    Not soon enough for you?

  12. So basically he had no plan whatsoever.

  13. NICKP

    I thought Leave had the plan… didn’t they?

  14. @Nick P

    No one has any plan on what we do next, the Leave campaign have never set out any realistic plan for what we’re going to do. Markets are reacting predictably to such a situation.

  15. Alan

    He’s basically f*cked things up and probably caused break up of Uk – god knows what will happen to NI without the EU.

    Why does he think he should preside over the mess he has created for 3 months more? What will he do in that time? Pull us out of the Solar System?

  16. NICKP

    That’s what the people wanted…. I think it’s a disaster as well but this is what a majority wanted to happen.

  17. What’s going to happen to Corbyn?.

  18. NICKP, doesn’t look like it. He called this referendum thinking he had it in the bag the arrogant tosser.

    TRISTRAN, why do you think N IRE is less likely to leave UK? didn’t they just vote to remain in the EU?

  19. Yes, NI and Scotland are real potential issues now as this unravels. However, only two voters in every hundred need to drift back to change the result. This is important.

    The Belgian PM is saying the EU needs to convene a major summit and assess it’s direction and priorities. Sensible stuff.
    There are other voices across Europe saying Britain must get on and leave, no concessions, and that this should be hard for the UK to set an example. Do these peole really think an EU based on dominance and fear is the best way to demonstrate ‘European values’.

    If the sensible voices are heard, all the EU needs to do is accept that free movement of people is not necessary for a single market, unless that is how you choose to define a single market – there are no rules on this.

    Offer a concession to the UK on this, based on something like a trigger of X% of the population arriving as migrants gives the UK certain rights to control further migration. This would be done, knowing that it won’t be controlled (if it could be, why didn’t Dave and chums control the other 50% of non EU migration) so no real impact. But offer something concrete and meaningful that theoretically gives Westminster powers to limit migration.

    Then have another vote.

    That’s what the Belgian PM is effectively thinking I’d wager. It needs to be done quickly, before the French, Dutch and Italian leavers get up a head of steam.

    The EU leaders and Commission need to shoulder their fair share of responsibility for this, as they resolutely refused to take this vote seriously, until around 10 days ago when the panic then started. They simply fell for their own groupthink that told them the EU is good and no one would seriously want to leave. Cameron asked for nothing and they offered him even less, and now we are here.

    The genesis of this entire outcome can be identified not in the council estates of England, but in the corridors of Brussels. That’s where the hubris can be found.

  20. Mikey – agree 100%

  21. Corbyn should absolutely go as well.

  22. @peebee

    Project BS is unravelling quicker than I expected. Wonder if any party will go into the next GE promising not to leave when people realise they’ve been had.

    (posted twice because my first comment got automodded)

  23. @ Nick P

    “It’s Cameron’s (and Linton Crosby’s) fault, so I have no sympathy.
    I’m back at work on Monday where everything will have come to a shocked halt.”

    This was absolutely idiotic.

  24. Of course, it fits in with his Premiership that sorting out the Tories should take priority over sorting out the country.

  25. @Pete1

    26% of NI’s economy is based on subsidy from England. They leave the UK and try to see if they can get that money from the EU instead (hint: they won’t). Or they can try to get the Irish Republic to pay for it. Or they can cut spending by 25% to ensure what they raise in tax equals what they spend.

    Or they can stay in the UK and have England continue to subsidise them.

  26. Tristan

    “I’m passionately pro- Unionist, and am no fan on the SNP, but I think Scotland would be completely within its rights to hold a second referendum”

    I think they need to leave to get it out of their system.

    The island isn’t going anywhere.

  27. Alan

    “I thought Leave had the plan… didn’t they?”

    I imagine Ukip have had a plan for a while but they’re not the govt yet.

  28. @Tristan

    “Corbyn should absolutely go as well.”

    Agreed. He’s a disaster.

  29. @Maxim Parr-Reid

    If they’re canny and wait until the UK is properly in recession then Scots will be mad as hell they were dragged into this against their will. Could put a lot of those questions to bed when the SNP can honestly say “This recession was made in Westminster”

  30. Well Labour unfairly got the blame for a worldwide crash and in response people voted for stability and economic competence of the Conservatives. Who might just have precipitated a worldwide downturn

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/global-recession-risk-above-50-on-brexit-t-rowe-price-warns

    Funny old world

  31. Candy

    NI’s 25% subsidy is not ‘from England’ but from the rest of the Uk, including Scotland, of course; and most of the English money comes from the City – certainly not from the ‘out’ voting ex-industrial areas. If the City takes a dive, and if sterling remains a fair bit below where it has been of late, then the Irish ecomony and the Euro, being now of higher value,along with the hassle of working out what cross-border activities now entail,will be a big pull for the Six Counties.

  32. If Corbyn goes, I would expect his replacement to be soft-left.

    Which would suit me fine.

    Mandelson arguing that Labour is out of touch with working class. Ahem.

  33. If it all goes wrong (or if even a fair proportion goes wrong) then people have only themselves to blame. Putting blame onto Cameron for asking the question is just stupid. Are people really saying that the British public should not be trusted with their own future? Perhaps we need to ban elections.

  34. Given the discrepancy between what many brexit voters in polls said they intended to vote and who they expected to win (remain) I can’t help imagining thre are an awful lot o people out there who voted leave imagining themselves being a plucky rebellious minority free from the fear of actually getting what they claimed to want and any consequences of it.

    There must be a lot of “d’oh!” sounds going on up and down the land.

    In other news I went to the movies last night. I saw Independence Day. It was s***. and it ended with a world in ruins.

  35. Big ‘ifs’, of course, but not beyond the bounds of possibility

  36. Well, I am depressed as hell this morning.

    Well done to the Leave supporters, you fought hard and won. I truly hope things turn out as you expect, but suspect it will be very different.

    I don’t hold this against any of you, but IMHO there is a special place in hell reserved for the Leave leaders. After all Farage has already admitted that the ‘extra money for the NHS’ was a lie – I expect many of the other Leave leaders’ commitments to be denied, re-written or quietly dropped in upcoming days and months.

    I see the mantra of ‘Take back control’ has been switched to ‘ Time for a period of reflection’, which I assume is code for ‘we need to try to agree on what the hell we do next’.

    Good luck everyone… and thanks for all the (mostly good-humoured) debate.

  37. Not sure if this is a wind-up but Betfair has Chris Grayling at 1/100 to be next PM. Boris Johnson is 4/6 and shortening.

  38. Gattino

    So, many people wanting to kick the establishment, not realising that they were the many more than they thought? Be careful what you wish for?

    Carney says he will do whatever he needs to do. Interest rates at 5% within the next three months? I doubt it. The pound will be allowed to fall – and fuel prices to rise. Carney may go when the new Brexit PM is in place.

  39. CANDY, do you seriously think nationalists will care about that? It’s there chance and if Scotland has another referendum and leaves you can hardly stop N IRE.
    I hope I’m wrong (even pray) but I see blood on the streets of N IRE again.

  40. I’m very interested to see the final breakdowns re: age and education levels.

  41. @JohnB

    Actually England is subsidising Scotland at the moment too – Scotland has a 10% deficit.

    Sturgeon needs to call her second Indy now, or she loses her momentum and loses face. And she needs to prepare and start cut, cut, cutting to ensure Scotland gets it deficit down so it can be welcomed into the euro (a condition of joining the EU). Really she should have done it years ago – the SNP have wasted the last seven years in govt.

  42. I would have thought with Scotland the UK would be a testing ground for all the so called “project fear” predictions that supposedly kept them from from voting for independence. What I mean is if businesses leave the UK and the economy tanks, the nationalists could no longer say when the same predictions are made about the consequences of Scotland leaving THIS union that its all fear mongering and untrue.

  43. hmmm

    I think a lot of people might get what they’ve been wishing for in next year or so.

    What was that old proverb?

  44. One final point and then I’ll go. To hear Mandelson talking about Labour ‘being out of touch’ is truly risible. We are leaving the EU because of New Labour’s utter failure to do anything for the areas devastated by Thatcher.

  45. @Alec

    Free movement of employment is a fundamental of the common market. It was a fundamental during the 1975 referendum. The EU is not going to abandon it because one country has decided to scape goat immigrants for all their problems.

  46. Just remember that during the bun fight we called a campaign, the EU has been quietly planning for the event of both eventualities.

    Whilst I believe that the civil service has put in place plans, I don’t believe that Cameron could actually believe he would actually lose, and knew that in the likely event he did, he would not be needing any plans anyway !

    Throughout this I have been saying that neither side has adequately spelled out who will be negotiating on our behalf and what their aims & objectives might be.

    The Vote Leave campaign were not a political party, and therefore could not put forward any credible policies.

    It’s yet another failure by one of the laziest PMs this country has had.

  47. Pete1 – “do you seriously think nationalists will care about that?”

    It is up to them to call their referendum and see if they can win it. And if they are childish enough to start killing again if they lose- well that’s down to them.

    Part of what is going on is England is in revolt at having to constantly subsidise everyone else – the EU, the Scots, the NI lot, send troops to Poland to defend them when Poland can’t even be bothered to meet the minimum NATO defence spending (which they would if they were in real danger).

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Americans start revolting too – they’re currently subsidising the rest of the world in a myriad of ways and at some point people get tired of the freeloading.

  48. I disagree re Scotland – if you are Sturgeon you have to let this play out and then go for a referendum when the new settlement has been defined.

    When the UK negotiates in Europe I expect Scotland’s devolved government to ask for representation in the negotiations and describe a ‘Scotland In’ option to be put to the Scottish electorate.

    I think Cameron’s historical legacy is totally wrecked – how could he have been this stupid? When he is considered by history I suspect he will be seen as one of our worst PMs ever…

  49. @ Candy

    “No it isn’t. It’ll be the making of the UK. As for Europe – millions of Europeans in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal are being hurt by the EU’s policies. It is not natural to have 20% unemployment, a big chunk of Africa is doing a better job or generating work and GDP than the EU. It’s got to the point where people from Portugal are emigrating to Angola for work. But the EU wouldn’t listen – hopefully this will light a fire under them.
    Spain goes to the polls on Sunday to re-do their inconclusive general election. I bet voters there are watching and feeling empowered, this is their opportunity to strike while the iron is hot.”

    Could I suggest something here? Revulsion over the actions of the French and Germans (who control the EU and dictate to the others) is quite natural. But the Brits leaving the EU doesn’t change any of what you mentioned. It just empowers and strengthens them.

    @ Redrich

    “Sad day for the country – Scotland will leave the UK (I don’t blame them now) and the economy is going to go down the swannee. And we have seriously annoyed all our allies. Well done us.”

    You know, I’ve been on the losing side of a 52%-48% vote of pure stupidity. You’ll recover.

    @ Mikey

    “I was watching with my 17 year old son. I went to bed at 2am in sheer despair. My son stayed up all night. He was desperate to vote in this Referendum and Cameron’s stupidity in not allowing the youth to vote on something that will massively affect their future was absurd.”

    Cameron’s stupidity was in calling this vote in the first place. I’m sorry your son couldn’t vote. Young voters in Scotland voted to stay in the union.

  50. Exactly why should Corbyn go?
    He didnt call this ref?
    He didnt front remain?
    He ran a very good honest and positive campaign to my knowledge which the mediia ignored
    How is 4% tv coverage of the oppositions case ever justifiable-whether you think him good or bad is irrelevant
    Labour were clearly ignored to Remains cost
    More to the point with whom do you replace him?
    Corbyns attitude of scepticism to the eu is clearly closer to the general publics that most of the plp so you cant replace him with someone like couper or chukka who are blindly pro-that wont help
    If you want an anti euer you are limited to very few candidates who would not have the support of the plp
    Think it through it makes no sense whatsoever
    And of course whoever stood against him is highly likely to lose in any contest
    It really makes no sense whatsoever

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