It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

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  1. Just a quick ‘buyer beware’ over the Google trends data by area – I work with Internet big data on daily basis and Google geo data isn’t as accurate as you (or they) might think. The trend data per se will be accurate – but there will be a systematic error with the location of the person doing the query. A lot of Internet interaction occurs on mobile devices now and they are almost impossible to accurately assign a geo location to (unless you are the network provider)

  2. I can’t believe turnout will be more than GE I’m predicting around 60%. Narrow Leave win because of

    1. Differential turnout Leavers definitely voting
    2. Young folk hardly voting at all
    3. Shy Leavers
    4. Polls being wrong again

  3. “EU referendum: Juncker in ‘out is out’ warning to UK”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36599300

    What on earth does Junker think he is doing on the eve of voting? He doesn’t know what the negotiating position of the UK will be nor even what the government might do in the event of a leave vote.

    He went on to say:
    And the UK would not get a better deal than the one already negotiated by Prime Minister David Cameron.

    I think this is a man who knows the reverse is actually true, running scared.

  4. There was actually an earlier referendum in 1973 in Northern Ireland on whether to stay in the UK or join a united Ireland, but only 1% of the Catholic population voted as nationalist parties called for a boycott. Consequently the ‘remain the UK’ vote won with 98.9% of the vote.

  5. Tancred

    Why should Brenda have to make “the final decision”?

  6. Good evening all leave leaning Hampshire. ..What a result for Ireland….don’t think ma mammy was happy at the result.

    When the results start coming in I think Scotland might be a good indicator on how the vote over all will go. If the leave vote in the Scottish counts is well above what the polls were suggesting then it might suggest a large win for Brexit overall.

  7. “Personally I can cope with any result. I have homes in three countries and could go for French or Spanish citizenship if I had to. ……. I do, however, struggle to see how being apart is better than working together.”

    Well, for a start we could stop foreigners buying up all our houses…..:)

  8. @COUPER2802

    Totally meaningless and groundless assumptions.

  9. @Tancred

    The Queen cannot make any meaningful decisions. She cant for example revoke the European Communities Act other than through Parliament.

    The only meaningful thing she could do is dissolve Parliament, and even that she can only do in compliance with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

  10. @Tancred “bets are 56.86% for remain and 43.14% for leave”
    Is that number of bets, or the money?

  11. Interesting chart here of swing back in action via You Gov’s daily tracking: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/final-eve-poll-poll/

  12. This comment is spot on…

    ADWILLIAMS134
    “I have a feeling that no matter what the final result is tomorrow night, this will result in major major re-alignments for both the Tories and Labour. This will not end tomorrow night no matter what”

    “I think when Cameron threw the option of a referendum into the ring last year, he was fairly confident of getting 60/40 or higher – and even in the opening stages it looked like it would be a bit of a walkover for Remain”

    “Instead, with less than a day to go, it’s neck and neck and the country split not only down the middle but also geographically.
    The message the result transmits to Europe and our domestic politicians is that a substantial chunk of the UK is anti-EU. The tories are virtually in civil war and Labour’s core working class vote – it’s blue collar, is in open revolt and none of that is going to end at 10pm tomorrow. This is just the start”
    _____

    Compared to the fallout after the EU vote I think the referendum will be nothing more than a little side show.

  13. Thanks.for the responses on the parliament question. I could just see the Labour front bench and many of their MPs ignoring the will of the people, just a gut feel, not partisan, I hope!

  14. YG poll more interesting than ComRes due to the more recent fieldwork. Impressive sample size too.

    This is all going to come down to turnout on the day itself. Will the under 30’s turn out in sufficient numbers? That is going to be the critical point and, in my view, the deciding factor.

    I can’t trust any phone poll due to Shy Leavers. Online polls are already adjusting the Leave VI downward, phone polls don’t do the same thing, even though they are equally susceptible to error due to the proven link between phone polling and inflation of socially liberal views. This is particularly relevant in the climate of Leavers being called xenophobic etc.

  15. @Tancred
    ” Parliament is sovereign according to the British constitution, which means that parliament has the final say on legislation or any constitutional change. Referendums are not necessary or binding according to UK law. They are NOT part of the democratic process under British law and do not form part of our political tradition.”
    This Referendum was set up by Parliament (European Union Referendum Act 2015) and thus is made ” part of the democratic process under British law “

  16. @AllanChristie

    I agree all of the pieces have been thrown up in the air.

    I cannot see the Tory party surviving in its current form.

    If only we had a Liberal party worthy of the name…

  17. @Thoughtful

    I think what Juncker said was for Italian, Dutch, Danish and French consumption. It is too late for anything he says to affect the referendum. It would have given massive ammunition a couple of weeks ago, and maybe given Farage better material for posters.

    However, he will want to say to other countries where pressure is mounting, “You will get nothing. We offered nothing when it was 50:50 that Britain would leave. We gave them nothing when the PM begged for a deal to sell. You will get nothing.”

  18. I should have added “Parliament has not made the Referendum binding, and in particular has not bound itself to act in any particular way.”

  19. The Financial Times’ poll of polls now has Remain on 47 and Leave on 45.

  20. The question abut MPs possibly declining to implement a Leave vote is an interesting one. Even more interesting, i think, is how on earth a government and parliament that are both against leaving the EU can actually go about implementing Brexit.

    Presumably the answer would be to form a pro-Brexit government, led by Gove or Johnson, with all the cabinet posts involved in negotiations held by Brexiters. But could such a government be formed without splitting the Tory party? And could it survive a confidence motion? Probably not, in which case we’d have a new GE.

    It all sounds pretty chaotic to me. But perhaps others more in sympathy with Brexit can see a clearer path.

  21. @DAVE

    The act you mention is simply the legalisation of the referendum, however this does not override parliamentary sovereignty. Therefore there it is still possible, though highly unlikely, to block ratification of the result.

  22. As I thought might happen, YG is running an “On-the-Day” poll on Thursday.

    Since this is the best possible test of polling methodology, it seems mad for any pollster not to do this (if their systems allow it).

  23. I am always amazed at how virulently Leave Yougov’s comments are!

    And people are talking about “shy Leavers”

    Fact is that if most of your friends are Leave and you are for Remain (down the pub watching the footy) you will be shy remain, while if most of your friends are Remain and you are Leave (University) you will be shy Leave. It will balance out.

    Similarly you cant talk about “turnout of under 25” and “turnout of over 65” as if they are homogeneous groups. In both age groups, AB voters are much more likely to vote than DE, and that is partly force of circumstance – lack of car, lack of babysitter etc etc. Many people who have said they are certain to vote will not do so in the end

  24. @Tancred

    We will see who is right tomorrow

    BUT it is reasonable that there are shy Leavers, it is undisputable that the young tend not to vote and highly unlikely given it is June and holiday time for uni’s etc that turnout will be anything like 78% when the GE turnout was low 60s.

    SO very close and I am predicting narrow Leave win against the odds and another upset.

  25. 57-43 in favour of remain if turnout is over 75.

    I’ve been lurking on this blog for several years, never registered until now. I’m a EU immigrant (hence my optimism) but have the right to vote (even tomorrow ;)).

  26. @PETRA GEORGEOPOLOUS

    I don’t give a monkey’s fart about Ashcroft’s personal view, but he does make some interesting points about the campaign.

    The remain campaign has been astonishingly inept, to be sure. Not that this mattered for me because I would have voted remain 20 years ago, 10 years ago and anytime until now. He does make a valid point about the remain campaign being seen to be the one giving dire warnings and ‘project fear’. It played into the hands of the Brexiteers, who have run a very slick campaign by comparison. My feeling is that Cameron simply expected an easy win after his renegotiation in Brussels, and he was genuinely shocked by the hostile response he received. This makes me think that Cameron is completely out of touch with people’s concerns and worries. Seeing Cameron answer questions made me wonder if he really is a remain supporter – he pathetically apologetic and spent too much time making excuses for the EU rather than boldly stating the positive case for being in the EU. Ruth Davidson did this to a much greater effect in the debate yesterday.

  27. TANCRED @DAVE
    The act you mention is simply the legalisation of the referendum, however this does not override parliamentary sovereignty. Therefore there it is still possible, though highly unlikely, to block ratification of the result.

    Strictly speaking, there will be nothing to ratify either way. The act mentions only the referendum process and is silent on what happens afterwards. Simply by abstaining, a very small awkward squad of Con inners could make life very difficult for a Con government attempting to define the out process, let alone putting it into effect.

  28. @COUPER2802

    Fair enough – I fully expect to have a sh*t, shower and shave tomorrow morning before I got to work. But then again, I might not have the shower if I’m in a hurry.

  29. Taking Financial Times’ poll of polls with Remain on 47 and Leave on 45 and splitting the DNs down the middle (which is charitable I think to Leave), Remain wins 51 to 49. Which has been my projected outcome for several weeks. And as I posted on the earlier thread that is a pretty bad outcome for the UK (although less bad than a close win for Leave).
    * Cameron dead duck
    * Tory party in civil war
    * Corbyn an electoral liability
    * EU question not really settled
    * UK still being regarded as halfway out the door by rest of EU
    * Massive division in civil society (the wounds are not going to heal quickly)
    * Second referendum all too possible
    Not great.

  30. The data on 2 of the polls is far enough back for a Jo Cox aftermath effect. The two polls based on data for the 20th to 22nd are a better guide it seems. Both are within the margin or error and split at 1 all to each side.

  31. Tancred
    You forgot shoe-shine and sh*g

  32. @BARBAZENZERO

    Well, what would happen afterwards would surely be a vote in parliament to approve the process of exiting the EU. Exiting the EU *has* to be approved by both houses of parliament as well as the European Parliament and ALL member states.

  33. Anecdotal evidence here in Itchen Abbas would suggest a substantial win for leave. So far I’ve only seen leave posters, all two of them but both have an arrow under them so I’m not sure if they are to do with the EU vote or the milkman.

  34. @PETE B

    At my age I only tend to get the shoe shine done! :-)

  35. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    The Tory shires will be for leave – I fully expect that. The Chipping this and Chipping that of this world are all inhabited by characters that would not be out of place in an Agatha Christie novel. Hardly remain material.

  36. If it’s predictions time (and with the polls opening in 440 minutes it will have to be), then here’s mine: Remain to win with 50.2% of the vote.

    UK subsequently bangs on about Europe forever.

  37. No reference to the Mail’s poll on the Mail’s website. Uncanny!

  38. Tancred

    Poirot was a refugee. I doubt he has a vote – and many other characters will be dead.

    As for Midsomer – only 2% of the electorate are still alive, and they’re in jail for murder.

  39. “Shy Leave, I think, is very common.
    People used to be shy Tory did they not?”

    ———-

    I’m a shy abstainer. Not on here, obviously…

  40. Carfrew

    “I’m a shy abstainer”

    So “lips that touch liquor will never touch yours”?

  41. TANCRED
    Well, what would happen afterwards would surely be a vote in parliament to approve the process of exiting the EU.

    Probably so, but that would not need to be until the next session, and would only need a few Con abstentions to fail. Any approvals outwith Westminster could be years away.

  42. My head says a very narrow result, could go either way.

    Something else is saying a Brexit landslide?

  43. On Friday morning half of Cameron’s Cabinet will resign.

    Which half remains to be seen.

  44. I think that ‘Leave a Reply’ above where I type comments has in the comment box on this site has been the most effective marketing technique for Leave. It has certainly firmed up many of the posters here.
    If we have a re-run then Anthony Wells may need to amend it to ‘Leave or Remain a Reply’.
    We are hit by the word ‘Leave’ far more than the odd ‘Remain’. We read it in novels and newspapers. We see it in adverts ‘Leave a legacy in your will to etc etc’. We hear it in pop songs on the radio ‘If you leave me now’, ‘Leaving on a jet plane’, etc. We hear it in school and read it in exam papers ‘Leave space for etc’. We actively say it ‘Leave me alone’. We hear it in sport commentary and when we describe things.
    There is no doubt people have been hit by LEAVE a lot more than
    REMAIN. This gave the OUT side a big advantage from the outset especially with the undecideds, nervous, fearful.
    Leave by a landslide.

  45. @THE LAST FANDANGO

    Not so sure on Cameron. I think ANY win for remain, even by 7 votes, would be a triumph for Cameron. He has catastrophically misjudged the mood of the nation and the general desire to give the establishment a bloody nose. He will soon resign as leader of the Conservatives anyway, so I think he would continue for another year or so.
    The Tories would locked in internal strife but Cameron still has the support of most MPs, so I don’t see any prospect of a revolution. What I do see is Boris strengthened irrespective of what happens in the vote and a forthcoming battle between him and Osborne that will determine the future direction of the Conservative Party. A Boris win would possibly lead to a second referendum in a few years’ time, but only after the next general election as MPs are still mostly pro-remain. Personally, I doubt this would happen as Boris would seek to unite his party and move forward. UKIP would continue to press for another referendum but it won’t happen.
    I also don’t think the EU leaders would punish Britain in any way, on the contrary they would breathe a huge sigh of relief and give Cameron a massive slap on the back.

    A leave vote would be much worse in my view. It would lead to all sorts of nastiness and recriminations that would go for years. It would also lead to an economic crisis and a sharp worsening of relations between Britain and the other EU countries. The Americans would be severely pi**ed off with us (unless Trump won the election, which is highly unlikely).

  46. @Allan Christie

    This being Itchen Abbas population 567?

  47. For the record. Since some of us are doing predictions, here is mind: Remain will win 53-47.

  48. TANCRED

    “Well, what would happen afterwards would surely be a vote in parliament to approve the process of exiting the EU. Exiting the EU *has* to be approved by both houses of parliament…..”

    It would be ironic if the House of Lords refused to accept the result of the referendum (assuming it was for Brexit) and voted to stay in.

    What would all those Brexiters say then about the democratic control we have over our representatives as opposed to “Brussels”? How do they propose to democratically remove the Lords!?

  49. @FRANCIS JEZIERSKI

    It shows remain ahead, but with many undecided people.

    Largely confirms my view that remain will scrape through.

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