It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

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  1. Thanks Anthony

    Very tight race indeed

  2. The link to the tabs for the TNS poll is to your personal computer, not to the website…

  3. I think I am going to be sick. Too close. Too many variables.

  4. This C4 debate is really weak. Just turned it over.

  5. To continue a previous discussion from the last thread:

    80% turnout among the under-30’s as some polling companies have used, is just bonkers. There won’t even be that many registered to vote. We are truly in the realm of fantasy.

    Given that turnout will be higher in older demographics, it suggests a turnout of over 85%. Not going to happen.

    If you accept that turnout will not be higher than 85%, then you accept by default that the under-30 turnout will be lower.

    If we get a turnout of 70% which is at the upper end of estimates, then the realistic turnout of the under-30’s is 60% – high for that demographic, but feasible.

  6. Incidentally the difference between an 80% and 60% turnout among the under-30’s is about a 2.5% boost to Leave.

  7. Rich I agree. The C4 debate line up is awful. I just turned back to ITA v ROI. (Still 0-0).

  8. I have a feeling that no matter what the final result is tomorrow night, this will result in major major re-alignments for both the Tories and Labour. This will not end tomorroqw night no matter what.

    I think when Cameron threw the option of a referendm into the ring last year, he was fairly confident of getting 60/40 or higher – and even in the opening stages it looked like it wouyld be a bit of a walkover for Remain.

    Instead, with less than a day to go, it’s neck and neck and the country split not only down the middle but also geographically.

    The message the result transmits to Europe and our domestic politicians is that a substantial chunk of the UK is anti-EU. The tories are virtually in civil war and Labour’s core working class vote – it’s blue collar, is in open revolt and none of that is going to end at 10pm tomorrow. This is just the start.

  9. There is a Welsh debate with a line up of Welsh politicians.

    Everyone hot under the collar.

  10. @adwilliams,

    Nicely summed up, I couldn’t agree more, and post any vote I don’t know which party has the bigger issues, Conservatives with what could easily be a full scale nasty split, or Labour, decimated in Scotland, disintegrating core vote and a leader nobody in the party thinks can win a GE.

    Interesting time ahead me thinks….

  11. Looking at the explanation of how the BBC will assess tomorrow’s results as they come in for what they believe they mean in terms of the final result:

    https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/22/how-the-bbc-will-be-benchmarking-the-results-on-eu-referendum-night/

    I notice they are based on an assumption of 60% turnout.

    If the campaign, or online voter drives have been successful in driving that up, I hope that the models can be adjusted pronto to take account of this.

    In reality, as it won’t be clear who these ‘extra voters are’ if turnout tops 65% then I can;’t quite see how the model will function instructively.

    If that’s the case then we’ll just have to wait for the votes to come trundling in!

    Those hoping that Sunderland might settle it may well be disappointed.

  12. ComRes will likely show a Remain lead. I believe it was conducted in the 4 days after Jo Cox’s murder which seems to suppress the reported Leave vote (perhaps shy Leavers).

    I’d be utterly shocked if it showed a Leave lead.

  13. Surely polls cant be released on the day of the vote!?!

  14. Fandango

    I understand they can be released before 7 am and after 10 pm.

  15. “Surely polls cant be released on the day of the vote!?!”

    They certainly can. The restriction is that polls of people who have already voted can’t be released on polling day – polls conducted before the polls opened is fine (technically most final polls are published in the election day newspapers… it’s just that the first edition of most newspapers come at at tennish the night before. Ipsos MORI are normally the exception because they poll for the Standard, who publish around lunchtime rather than in the middle of the night)

  16. Excsue me, does anyone please have the link to the Remain/Leave prediction by counting area please?

  17. @Old Nat – aha, ok. (But we don’t get polls after midnight but before 7am on GEs?)

    @Candy – I cant get the Bing thing to work either. Maybe it has given up the ghost?

    I am quite sceptical about big data for things like this because of the ‘observer effect’. The campaigns know that the social media stuff gets measured so they pump the ether full of retweets, likes, faves etc. from sock puppet accounts etc to try to capture a favourable measurement. But it isn’t the activity of real people. And I think it is really tough to differentiate (not impossible, but tough).

    I have to say I think the smart phone ad sampling thing is total bunkum. The psychic octopus is probably more use.

  18. Last on the previou thread!

    1% here 1% there?
    My wife’s on the Internet tonight 
    with her doggie friends group -over 70 so far intimated their VI. 90% Brexit. Mostly women of differing ages.
     Good luck with your guesses – you need it.

  19. @AW

    Ok, I get it. I am clearly used to the timing of polls being driven by the demands of print news without realising that was what was driving it!

  20. @ADWILLIAMS134
    I must say the news that many Brits, or at least English are anti Europe, may come as a shock to DC, the liberal left and the modern day Habsburgs, but the blue collar English Labour vote has done “a Scotland” also. What next I wonder?

  21. Wow! Well done Republic of Ireland: 1 – 0 against Italy.

  22. Yesss!

    Ireland!

    (UK/Brit Nats may not like it, but RoI is just as much a “Home Nation” to me as any that are in the UK).

  23. I think someone asked on the previous thread what happens if there’s a tie, and in case no one answered, I understand that the law doesn’t actually specify.

    But if you think about it, what would it matter? The law does not set out that any particular consequences will follow from a Leave vote (to the best of my knowledge, it’s purely advisory in legal and consttutional terms, albeit the government will feel obliged to comply) nor that anything particular follows from a Remain vote. So which side has won is immaterial in that sense.

    Supposing that the law had set out particular consequences to follow from a Leave vote, it would presumably be couched in terms of Leave winning more votes than a Remain. A tie would therefore be a victory by default for the status quo.

    In reality, a tie is vanishingly unlikely but anything remotely close to a tie is going to be horrendous in terms of multiple demands for recounts (is there any scope for these?), possible legal challenges etc.

  24. what is the margin of error of your poll?

  25. Yes, we live in politically interesting times regardless of how the vote goes. It’s a strange irony that just at the moment when liberalism versus nationalism has become such a politically salient dividing line, the parties that most embody those values are really quite weak (UKIP having, I think, rather stalled in its progress, and my party having just been kicked firmly into the wilderness for this political cycle). It’s quite possible that neither will actually do very well out of the aftermath, at least initially – the big questions will be where Labour and the Tories end up after what will probably be major internal political struggles on both sides of the Commons, and then after that whether they make suitable spaces for smaller parties to break through.

    As for myself I’m just hoping to goodness for a Remain vote, though my gut feeling is that higher turnout among older voters will swing it for Leave by a narrow margin. I’ve got one more leaflet round tomorrow morning, and then it’s sitting back, biting nails and crossing fingers!

  26. In the event of a Leave vote, could the parliament simply refuse to implement it based on the MPs in the chamber? I know that would make us a bit like Zimbabwe or North Korea, but just wondered. Is this a real possibility?

  27. What is the margin of error of your poll? Do you call cell phones?
    Thx

  28. @Roland Haines “I must say the news that many Brits, or at least English are anti Europe”

    Dont be at all surprised if Wales is up near 60% for Leave. The Labour core in the Valleys is in open revolt, even amongst party members and trades unionists*.

    (*interesting fact about trades unions – there are 165 in the UK, of which 55 are affiliated to the TUC, of which only 12 are for Remain, the rest for Leave or undeclared.)

  29. It’s alright everyone I’ve already worked out the final result. It’s

    56% Remain
    44% Leave

    I will publish my methodology when I wake up on Friday afternoon.

  30. Does that Irish win mean that one of our EU partners has made bloody sure that Turkey are out of Europe? :-)

  31. Rich: legally, yes they could, this vote is technically entirely non-binding on the government and on parliament. In practice it’s inconceivable that such a thing could happen.

  32. @ Rich

    “In the event of a Leave vote, could the parliament simply refuse to implement it based on the MPs in the chamber?”

    Of course.

    We are a parliamentary democracy. The referendum has no legal force at all.

    If the Commons decide not to act on it there is no recourse in law to force Government to take the UK out of the EU.

    This is the ‘sovereignty of parliament’ we have heard so much about.

    Though technically, of course, as these are treaty matters, they are reserved to the Crown – parliament alone is not sovereign in the UK.

    The political wisdom of such a course of action is another matter…

  33. @ CMJ

    This was the one James E linked to a week or so back. The best guess for what remain/leave vote would be in event of a tie. I think MOE is about 10% though!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=881507152

  34. Rich

    Wasn’t the sovereignty of the Westminster Parliament to do exactly as it wants (as long as the 800+ unelected ones go along with the Commons) exactly what you have been campaigning for?

  35. Thanks Shevii

  36. @Rich

    Yes they absolutely could. But more likely (A) they would say mandate is just to leave EU and not to leave single market (so still free movement via EEA) or (B) demand a general election and if not enough Leavers go elected for a majority then say GE has overridden referendum.

  37. Legally and constitutionally, MPs could refuse to implement the result. In reality I believe the chances of this are very low except in certain unusual conditions – perhaps if the margin of Leave victory was extremely low (0.5%?), so that its legitimacy was weak (although obviously there would even weaker legitimacy for Remain). Or perhaps if after a year or two negotiations about our future trading arrangements etc were going so poorly etc that a second referendum was forced on whether to accept those poor terms (with the implication that otherwise we would have to remain after all) – but it seems to me the chances of this are very low, too.

  38. @exactprediction,

    I am sort of looking forward to Friday if only to finally put an end to your remain will win by 10% drum banging you have been doing for several weeks. It’s going to be way way closer than you think.

  39. Comres 48 Remain 42 Leave but old data up to June 22

  40. Right here goes. My current view is this.

    Remain 47%
    Leave 53%

    Am basing this on turnout around 60%, not the 80% some of these models are saying.

  41. EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 48% (+2)
    Leave: 42% (-3)
    (via ComRes, phone / 17 – 22 Jun)

    conducted over the 5 days after Jo Cox’s murder so of limited value to gauging where VI is now

  42. 8% Remain lead in Comres [poll….

  43. Remain leading 48/42 on Comres

  44. Thanks BANTAMS

  45. I have said I thought the result would be 55% Remain and 45% Leave – though I admit these final polls make me think it will be much closer. I had previously assumed there was a large “silent” Remain majority, but I’m less sure now.

    **********
    Personal opinions below…
    **********
    Personally I’m also in the “Don’t Know” column. I think the referendum is somewhat pointless – it’s not binding and the arguments have mostly been irrelevant and about what is going to happen on either side. I do support the fraternal pull of the EU but I don’t wish to be a citizen of an EU state and would prefer to just be part of a common market of independent nations. But I also don’t wish any economic turmoil on the UK or to give support to those on the far-right. I don”t want to be fully in; I don’t want to be fully out.

  46. 51/49 remain on yougov

  47. “conducted over the 5 days after Jo Cox’s murder so of limited value to gauging where VI is now”

    The fifth day was yesterday? How much more recent were you expecting? 30 secs ago?

  48. That’s a healthy ComRes for Remain and it’s hardly out of date.
    Well done Ireland.
    Wales now play Northern Ireland for a place in the quarter finals. Happy with that.

  49. Yougov 51 Remain 49 Leave

  50. Phone polls thoroughly discredited if leave wins.

    Not quite the same in reverse, online currently too close to call

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