It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

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  1. This will damage Britain hugely in the eyes of the world – only Trump and Putin are gloating. The people who voted leave are those who don’t have a stake in the economy: chavs and old farts. And now my career (what’s left of it) and my retirement fund are under threat because of them.

    I am seriously thinking about moving abroad or even Scotland, as I’m sure independence will now happen there.

  2. Roger Mexico

    “Ironically you’re exactly wrong”

    So to go back to the original question where does a metropolitan liberal get their impression of the northern working class if not from the media?

  3. @ Allan Christie

    “Word has it Scotland is gearing up for indy ref 2. Scotland going back to the EU, NI uniting with the Republic, London declaring special status….at this rate poor ol PM Boris will be lucky to be left with Gibraltar and the isles of Scilly”

    Not to mention Liverpool and Manchester and …

    There could be a special status for Gibraltar too

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar-idUKKCN0ZA169

  4. “According to Le Monde, France are already demanding a start to the exit process as soon as possible.”

    Seems to me it would be in the Eurocrat’s interests to get it over with as fast as possible.

  5. TANCRED

    Such nonsense, I have large investments in the stock market and therefore a clear stake in the success of our economy. The will be short term ups and downs as we have seen this morning, but I believe that in the medium term my investments will grow faster now we have left the EU.

  6. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Dream on. You and your lot are hopelessly misguided.

    I just hope and pray that a patched up deal can be reached PDQ or else it’s the abyss.

  7. Tancred

    Rather flowery language, don’t you think? If you are serious about coming to live in Scotland you will have to avoid speaking about others in such derogatory ways. Discussion here is much more civilised; otherwise, you’ll have to go and boil yur heid!

  8. LASZLO

    Turbulent times
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar-idUKKCN0ZA169

    The Spanish government had already announced they would make such a bid if the UK voted out – it was one reason why the Gibraltarians were so keen to stay in. At this rate there will be so much territory lost that the UK will be reduced to Tunbridge Wells (which incidentally voted Remain 55%).

  9. “The Spanish government had already announced they would make such a bid if the UK voted out – it was one reason why the Gibraltarians were so keen to stay in. At this rate there will be so much territory lost that the UK will be reduced to Tunbridge Wells (which incidentally voted Remain 55%).”

    …and even ignoring that, Gibraltar depends on freedom of movement to supply it with labour from Spain. It could become unviable as an enclave if it is cut off from the EU.

  10. Neil A

    Our bargaining and diplomatic position is too weak to risk annoying the French even more.

  11. LASZLO

    I think its wishful thinking from the Spanish but still very interesting .
    ………….

    TANCRED

    You lot? You mean 53.6% of your fellow Englishmen? Respect the result and get over it.

    I doubt the Scots would want a tantrum like you living with them.

  12. @Gray
    You are the wrong way around; the two year time limit is not to prevent prevarication by EU bureaucrats but to force the leaving country to move quickly to accept what ever terms are on offer, even if they don’t like them.

  13. TOH
    Hear hear. I too have some investments in the stock market, though not huge. I didn’t try to sell anything before the referendum though because I thought it could go either way (despite my 100% accurate prediction of the result!). Yes it was obvious that the markets would take a hit but they always bounce back sooner or later. In fact I bought a bit this morning. Like you, I now have some faith in the future.

    I just hope that the politicians don’t try to stitch us up by delaying indefinitely or signing up to an awful deal with the EU that still allows unrestricted immigration. If they do, there could be trouble.

  14. I blame Cameron for this awful mess. He should have had the testicles to cancel the referendum after he came back with the deal from Brussels, instead he carried on to disaster. We are a country governed not by parliament, but by tabloid newspapers. The lunatics have well and truly taken over the asylum.

  15. @Tancred

    It’s precisely because of that attitude they voted the way they did !

    A little like the leaked BBC email which referred to the people who they coercively lift their taxes from as ‘Ghastly’.
    I’m still hearing Labour people refer to the working class as ‘racists & xenophobes’.

    Carry on this way and those hate filled views will never see power again.

    The elites need to get back in touch with the people, and they need to do it quickly! What you saw last night was a small revolution, I’d rather not have to deal with a full blown one thank you !

  16. Pete B

    The markets are being supported by intervention.

    “I just hope that the politicians don’t try to stitch us up by delaying indefinitely or signing up to an awful deal with the EU that still allows unrestricted immigration. If they do, there could be trouble.”

    Really, you don’t say. One of those two outcomes is probably what is going to happen.

  17. I’m looking forward to Farage’s next speech in the EU Parliament. It should be a snorter! I bet he’s been working on it for years.

  18. @PETE B

    What trouble? I would LOVE a civil war and the chance to kill some chavs – just love it. I would be the first to volunteer.

  19. Now if there is an early election lots of remain MPs who ignored their constituants will hopefully be for the chop and those that survive will at last understand that they are here to serve US not themselves or their careers

  20. I am normally, I hope, balanced in my posts and try to remain on topic. However earlier this morning in this thread I was considerably less impartial than I usually am and would like to apologise to AW and to anyone who was put out by my posts.

    However that said the one thing that can now be seen, in a small way on this site and in a much more dramatic way elsewhere, is the deeply held views on both sides of the argument and the diametric opposition they demonstrate. Given that rift, and as the old saying goes you cannot put toothpaste back in the tube, I am very concerned as to political discourse in the coming years. As Lincoln once remarked ” A house divided against itself cannot stand”.

    The difference in opinion between the older generation and those younger which appears to have emerged (if the polls are correct) could lead to an exodus of young talent from this country or a backlash by the young against the old. As a 55 year old I hope I am wrong about this but I cannot see a way, at present, to heal these wounds.

    A young woman of 20, daughter of my friend (and a Corbyn supporter previously) perhaps sums up my worry when she says that she will never forgive Jeremy Corbyn because of the half hearted approach he took to the Remain campaign and her belief that he did so because he (secretly) and his generation (not so secretly) wanted to leave the EU.

  21. @THOUGHTFUL

    These people are ghastly – very true. The scum of the earth. Just go on the Sun website and read the hateful comments from the imbeciles there.

    As for a civil war, I would love one, please BRING IT ON!

  22. Pete B

    ” EU that still allows unrestricted immigration.”

    That would be political suicide for any politician be it from the left or right.

  23. I wonder if Sadiq Khan is commissioning a survey about London Independence? He’s been on the phone to Sturgeon this morning, she said so. I wonder what they discussed?!

  24. Oh dear….someone has truly lost it!,

  25. Breaking news i believe a “no confidence ” motion in Corbyn has been tabled in the Labour Party.

    Tancred

    Reading your posts I fear for your health. Just accept that people like you lost the argument by 3.8%.

  26. I am looking forward to all the backtracks that will be made by the countries who were threatening us will punishments if we left the EU.

    I am genuinely sorry for the people that voted for remain as I know it is an emotional outcome and not just a political one.

    Once the dust settles you will see that thinges are not as bad as predicted and we can all move on.

    As a democracy you can vote against the new leader of this country very soon to express your anger and try to remove him, something you could never have done with a president of the EU.

    Have faith in the UK.

  27. JS-B: “We do not manufacture tvs, smartphones, computers, etc which we could be exporting to the world. Now we still can.”

    Typical Brexiter delusion. If you think we have a hope in hell of restarting manufacturing on a significant scale, in the face of Chinese competition, you are wrong. Even Dyson moved all his manufacturing to Malaysia.

  28. Tancred
    I may be wrong, but I think you once posted that you were 49. Can you please try to behave like it, and not like a 9-year-old.

    ———————-
    WB
    On the subject of divisions. I think you’re right that there is a bit of a generational divide. I wonder what effect that will have on traditional divisions such as Tory/Labour? For instance, your friend’s daughter may have gone off Labour, but who would she turn to? I wonder if a Young Peoples’ party might emerge? Anything seems possible.

  29. JOHN B
    Scotland does not want to leave the EU. Does it want to leave the UK? Difficult question.

    Quite so. I can understand why the SNP would have to say what they did, but something the UK government could do is to offer to do a Greenland with the Scottish government taking over the EU seat, and possibly responsibility for NI also [unless a referendum there reunites that island].

    That would at least allow some possibility of services companies moving their HQs to Scotland whilst most of their staff remain in England. If coupled with FFA it could offer a path to a velvet separation if not a full divorce, and would probably satisfy a majority of Scots for the time being.

  30. What folk forget is that the EU cant take the hit. Only 3% of their combined exports come here. They have a strong hand of cards over us. We need them far more than they need us. They could have a zero relationship with us if they chose and survive, we’d sink. That won’t happen thankfully but they always have that ultimatum card to play and we will know that. Prepare for companies like Nissan to open new facilities in Spain. They will still produce here but on a smaller scale. They will want to be at the heart of their market, not just because of tarrifs but because of consumer perception. Europeans aren’t going to be too friendly to UK made products now. London financials already talking about moving staff to Europe. Frankfurt/Paris gain, London lose.

  31. New Thread

  32. Somerjohn

    “If you think we have a hope in hell of restarting manufacturing on a significant scale, in the face of Chinese competition”

    Most “Chinese” competition isn’t Chinese it’s multi-nationals operating in China. China can’t raise wages for its own people because the MNCs will move somewhere cheaper. So basically everyone is being manipulated by the same few globalists.

  33. WB

    I understand you concerns, and I’m full up for exodus. I just feel that much more disconnected from my country today, to the point that what was just a bit of an idea is becoming much more of a solid plan.

    I agree with you about seeing no way to heal the wounds. What’s done is done.

  34. TOH

    Thanks for the heads-up re Corbyn.
    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

  35. My view is that the EU will want to move as quickly as possible now. There are other countries waiting in the wings and the Brexit vote has emboldened their exit campaigners.

    I still believe that the Commission will try to give the UK a much better deal, including some of the things Cameron was refused.
    So we might get the ’emergency brake’ on immigration, or a limit on numbers. Limitations on the state benefits migrants can claim, and the possibility of returning known criminals of EU origin.

    They only have to change the minds of 2% of the British population to change the referendum result, and I for one am unconvinced of Boris Johnsons commitment to Brexit.

    This is the way the EU has dealt with every previous referendum result against it and there’s no reason to think they won’t do the same again for this one.

  36. @LRR

    What new thread?

  37. Alan

    I am very much of the same view. I have been discussing future plans in retirement with my partner. I no longer feel this country is for me. It’s sad to say that but I dislike the narrative. It’s not for me.

    The point about Labour disconnect with their support base is more complex than many suggest. Many Labour MP’s are pro immigration. Should they have to become anti immigration to win back some of their support? Not if they are true to themselves they shouldn’t.

  38. @ToH I think it tells us that we are seen as having dealt a heavy blow to Europe’s prosperity as well as our own – a price worth paying you may well feel, but I don’t think you should expect them to be grateful to us for it. indeed they may well feel that they have to be particularly unpleasant to us, ‘pour encourager les autres’.

  39. I am amused by the Bremainers’ claims of UK meltdown.

    3 p.m. on the Friday, one day after the vote.

    FTSE 6177 – 2.54% down
    DAX 9661 – 5.81% down
    CAC 4154 – 6.9% down

    GBP EUR – 4.9% down

    It appears that the European meltdown is as bad as the UK meltdown.

  40. Mikey

    Not quite at retirement myself, but all options being equal I think I’d rather contribute to another society.

    CYNOSARGES

    Look at FTSE 250 which is where the British companies lie as opposed to the multinationals that just happen to be listed on the exchange.

  41. @ADAM HARVEY

    The EU is not a country you imbecile – there is no president. The president of the European Commission is a civil servant.

  42. Has Anthony been out with the pruning shears? 3 days’ worth of posts have disappeared!

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