Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

1 7 8 9 10 11 12
  1. “Jo lived for her beliefs, on Friday she died for them. For the rest of our lives we will fight for them.”

    Brendan Cox, just now.

  2. ASSIDUOSITY

    I think we have found some common ground in your last comment and yes opportunities have been missed over the whole EU project.

  3. Britain Elects [email protected] 8m8 minutes ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 50% (+2)
    Leave: 47% (-2)
    (via SurveyMonkey, online)

  4. NICKP

    Quite right and the same goes for all MP’s of whatever political persuasion and that is they should go on fighting for their believes without fear or favour.

  5. @Neil A

    “senior supporters have suggested that EU citizens already living and working in the UK are likely to be granted leave to remain.
    If other EU countries reciprocated, who exactly do you think will be sent back here?”

    I’m sure that you are right and no European countries would force UK citizens to return here.

    However, there may be secondary effects caused by Brexit that might make living in the EU more problematic and lead to a return flow of certain groups.

    In the main any changes wouldn’t impact on working age British expats, so long as they have contributed sufficiently to the health and social security schemes in their host countries.

    The group for which it may prove problematic are those who are in receipt of benefits overseas. In the case of UK expats this is predominantly the retired, living not only in Spain, but France, Italy, Malta and Cyprus.

    My understanding is at present there are reciprocal arrangements for the payments of pensions and access to healthcare and social services in other European countries for these groups.

    These arrangements are separate from EHIC (the old E1-11 form) which covers you for health treatment during temporary stays.

    Were these quid pro quo arrangements to be removed or at least subject to renegotiation or uncertainty, it might make life somewhat more complex for older UK citizens who may decide it is easier to return ‘home’.

    Lots of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ there; however, that doesn’t mean it’s not a potentially tricky area, more, I suspect, one that hasn’t been looked into with any degree of detail.

    Our statistics on the number of UK nationals living in Europe are woeful. That we rely on UN estimates, should give you an idea of how in the dark we actually are, so it may be a question of not knowing how big any potential problem may / may not be until it does / fails to arise.

    In polling terms, I wonder if there were an influx of disgruntled former elderly expats who had their dream of golden years in the sunshine robbed from them how they might vote – and how their likely reliance on overstretched health and social care structures might go down with others.

  6. Britain Elects [email protected] 13m13 minutes ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 50% (+2)
    Leave: 47% (-2)
    (via SurveyMonkey, online)

    Some monkey business.

  7. https://twitter.com/GaryLineker

    Gary is for REMAIN! WELL DONE GARY!

  8. Leave ahead by 45 to 44 on Opinium poll just released!

  9. Britain Elects [email protected] 4m4 minutes ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 44% (-)
    Leave: 45% (+1)
    (via Opinium, online / 20 – 22 Jun)

  10. my god…this could not be closer!

  11. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Yet another poll that indicates a very close race.

    I have ZERO faith in all polls. The 2015 election has discredited the entire polling concept and unless there is a huge (+10 or more) lead one way or the other I refuse to believe any of it.

    My belief is:

    London: for remain, but only just
    Scotland: for remain
    Wales: for remain
    Norther Ireland: for remain
    Tory shires: for leave
    Labour areas in the north: slightly for remain

    Overall: remain to scrape through

  12. I think it is fair to judge the polls as roughly accurate provided neither side gets more than about 53% (whichever ends up winning).

  13. @Assiduosity

    It’s hard to square the idea that someone decides it’s “easier to return home” with them then being grumpy about it.

    The main consequence of exit is probably that pensions would no longer be index linked, as is the case with pensioners in non-EU countries. With inflation quite low that would take quite a long time to bite. Of course it would be open to the UK government to change those rules if they wanted to.

    I’m not sure that the countries concerned would actually want to lose those retirees in any case. Most of them are living from savings and pensions accrued in the UK, which are spent in the local economy. Unlike the UK, there probably isn’t that much demand for the housing they currently occupy.

    Those that have resided abroad for many years do of course have the nuclear option of applying for citizenship in their country of residence, although I’m not sure what effect if any that has on the pensions situation.

    However, if after filtering out those for whom there is no problem, there is a one-off reflux of tens of thousands of British ex-pats returning to the UK, I’m comfortable with that.

  14. A lot of these surveys have biases that probably overestimate the support of Vote Leave.

    For example Survation said 45% Leave and 44% Remain but it only surveyed 1,000 people and called people between 3:30pm and 9pm on Monday evening.

    David
    http://dodgystatistics.com/opinion-polls-dodgy-statistics-13/

  15. @Bigfatron

    I am not sure what the answer is, as the problem is that we have followed an economic model which (unless you have lost out) been outwardly very successful. But like the Blair/Brown boom, we are just digging ourselves into a deeper hole.

    Leaving the EU might help us stop digging and face the problem. But facing problems is hard. We might just get digging again with a new spade.

  16. Yes, the polls are essentially telling us it’s a dead heat, with the result being dependent on very late swing, turnout, whether the sampling and weighting has been accurate and whether the usual “swing to the status quo” occurs (if it hasn’t already).

    Definitely a nailbiter in store tomorrow. As a politics geek I can’t wait! I won’t be cheering or crying whatever the result, but watching it unfold will be priceless.

    That first declaration in Sunderland will have more significance than any declaration in recent UK political history I think. More than any by-election, Enfield Southgate, Basildon or anything.

    All those years of Sunderland sharpening their vote-counting expertise have been leading to this!

  17. Still ComRes to go, but I’m going to make a final prediction

    Leave: 51.5%
    Remain: 48.5%

    Reasons:

    – statistical tie in current polling
    – slight shy brexit factor in phone polling
    – minimal swing to status quo in this referendum (as per other EU related referendums which have taken place in other countries – there is no love for the EU in any way, for example, many Scots loved being in the UK)

  18. I also think 3-1 for Leave is very good value at the bookies

  19. Deja vu all over again. The polls saying it’s neck and neck – if it’s not close do we gwt anothwr enquiry?

  20. What if there’s a dead heat? Does the principle of “motion not carried” apply – though, in that case, what was the motion? Presumably it means the referendum has not changed the status quo, so the result is Remain. Possibly there would be a full re-count?

  21. My prediction of the result is 55-45 for remain. Late reversion to the status quo option.

  22. Tancred

    “I would expect the Celtic vote to redress the balance”

    But the Rangers vote will be the other way again.

  23. Several of our friends have been for Remain throughout and are jumping ship at the very last, one is going the opposite way.

  24. So only 7% more people think the leaving EU would make their financial situation worse, compared to those who think it would be better…with these kind of fundamentals driving VI what hope do remain really have, if economic fear has not established itself? Project Fear has clearly failed.

    Leaving the EU would see my personal financial situation…
    Better: 19%
    Worse: 26%
    About the same: 55%
    (via Opinium / 20 – 22 Jun)

  25. TANCRED

    I wrote several months ago on UKPR when remain were well head of leave that the closer we got to the vote the tighter the polls will become. I was correct…..I wrote just over a week ago that leave will win however the fact that the DK’s can swing it either way then in truth no one knows who will win but if most DK’s don’t vote and the older vote comes out more than the younger vote then leave will win.

    What I will predict is that whoever wins will win by at least 7%. There is no way this vote is as close as the polls are suggesting when there are so many Don’t Knows lurking about.

  26. @Neil A

    I agree.

    I don’t think on the face of it this is a major issue, unless the DWP and DoH have missed something significant – which is always possible.

    The only thing I would say that it is unlikely to be the pensions that are problematic – as you point out there are work arounds, it is access to local health and social care in the country of residence. Many of these expats may be eligible if they’ve filled in all the paperwork over the years, some might not.

    It also rather comes down to the view that each country takes on the cost vs benefit of having the expats there or not as to which services thy will provide them – far from all British pensioners overseas are wealthy.

    In terms of disgruntlement. Imagine that you have moved to Spain on the basis of a hassle free retirement, easy access to Spanish healthcare, index linked pension, other benefits of the Spanish welfare state (not cash, but social), then it becomes a welter of forms to be filled in when you want to see the doctor, or more costly, or the pension’s not index linked anymore, or you can’t get the discounts for being a senior citizen you once could.

    The hassle-free home of your early retirement no longer exists and is paperwork, and unexpected costs and hassle. You move back to the UK, I would guess, for an easier life but somewhat disgruntled having lost what you once had.

    But, as I say, the numbers involved are probably too small to make any significant difference to UK politics and life.

  27. DRMIBBLES

    To be honest I think a lot of peeps have switched off from the economic arguments. It lost traction some time ago but immigration and sovereignty have traction could be the defining area where this whole thing is won or lost.

  28. Neil A
    increases in the state pension isn’t just limited to those living in Europe. For a full list of othe countries, see here. It includes the USA.
    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-1709959/The-state-pension-British-people-living-overseas.html

    But you are right, it’s up to the government

  29. @Allan Christie

    “What I will predict is that whoever wins will win by at least 7%. There is no way this vote is as close as the polls are suggesting when there are so many Don’t Knows lurking about.”

    We seem to be enjoying a degree of consensus today.

    I’m with you. I think this is in the lap of those certain to vote DKs. I’m also inclined to believe the result will be more decisive than currently seems the case.

    Having said that memories of the Welsh devolution referendum of 1997 – Yes 50.3%, No 49.7%, do come to mind…

  30. I have been crunching the numbers going through many tables and to be frank it’s been a nightmare. I have tried to work back the numbers to see where the percentage split needs to be and what it might reflect early in the evening. Reports seem to favour Sunderland reporting first this is interesting and obviously a very labour leaning place. I think the mean split number is going to be around 62/38 in favour of remain. If this comes in higher then I think its likely we will see a remain win, if it’s lower then it’s more likely to be a leave win. So I will be looking and watching the numbers here very closely. The labour vote is critical for the remain side and of course it would need to be reflective for most labour leaning areas. We shall see.

  31. Seems no one is showing the Iceland game.

    Disgraceful prejudice against a country simply because it is partly in Europe, and partly in North America!

  32. Neil A: “Stuff and nonsense are not the unique preserves of Brexiteers.”

    I would be interested to hear you explanation of why what works for the UK in terms of immigration control would not work similarly for rEU.

    Let’s assume Brexit results in the same controls on EU migrants as the current ones on non-EU migrants. Brexiters must presumably expect this to result in reduced net EU immigration to the UK. As far as I know, no-one on that side has quantified this, but let’s say they hope for a 50% reduction (it would be interesting to see polling on what Leave voters expect to achieve in this regard. Failing that, perhaps pro-Brexit posters here could tells what they expect).

    Any reduction, as you say, will be achieved without chucking out anyone who is already here. So it will depend on a reduced inflow, and the maintenance of the current outflow of EU migrants going back home. There will always be an outflow: of students completing their courses; people who only ever intended to come for a short while; people achieving their goal of improving their English, gaining some skills and a pot of savings going back to put their new skills and wealth to use at home; and so on.

    Now, what about Brits resident in other EU countries? There is of course churn there too. For all the reasons above, plus the age/health factor – retirees reaching old age tend to return for the NHS, or simply to die at home. But there will be increased pressure too. There will be some who feel less comfortable as non-EU citizens, fearing the erosion of their privileges. There will be others whose utility to employers drops because they cannot be shifted around the EU. And if he UK stops paying for their health care, they’ll be back in droves.

    But the biggest effect on net migration rates will come from reduced emigration of Brits to EU countries, given controls similar to ours on RoW migrants. How many retirees to Spain can demonstrate employment income of £35k? How many will pass language proficiency tests?

    At the moment, there is net emigration of 30,000 British-born UK citizens per year. You are suggesting I am a spouting ‘stuff and nonsense’ for suggesting Brexit will reduce the number of Brits living as expats in the EU.

  33. @Robert Newark

    Thanks for that information – a slightly odd group.

    EU candidate countries. Selected Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories. Jamaica, USA and Israel.

  34. @OldNat

    “Disgraceful prejudice against a country simply because it is partly in Europe, and partly in North America!”

    :-)

  35. “If, following Brexit, the government imposes the same controls on EU migrants as non-EU, the effect is likely to be limited.”

    88% of current EU migrants wouldn’t otherwise get a work visa. They earn less than £20K.

    http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/reports/potential-implications-admission-criteria-eu-nationals-coming-uk

  36. “As far as I know, no-one on that side has quantified this, but let’s say they hope for a 50% reduction”

    As I said. It is 88%. That frees up slots for higher-paid workers from the rest of the world.

  37. Assid.
    No way the don’t knows are as reported. They have in any event been factored in top line numbers as reported by JC. More likely if they don’t know they won’t vote.

  38. FWIW the following Big Data prediction has Remain on 44%, Leave on 43% and undecideds on 13% – they predict the undecideds will break for Remain:

    https://www.equimedia.co.uk/blog/eu-referendum-prediction-time-for-undecided-voters

    They trawled Facebook, Twitter, Youtube and Instagram to make their prediction.

    It is worth noting that the got the Scottish referendum right, but the general election wrong.

  39. I can’t believe 9% are still undecided! Will polling officers report loads of flower petals left by voters after they go through the “I love them, I love them not” routine before they finally cast their vote?

  40. “As I said. It is 88%. That frees up slots for higher-paid workers from the rest of the world.”

    Hopefully it would reduce immigration, as that is what leavers would be voting for.

  41. Well that’s put Cameron firmly in his place even earlier today he was promising that if we remain he would negotiate further reforms. Junker has just said he can forget it, what he got is all he is getting and the British public should be made aware THAT NO FURTHER REFORMS ARE IN ANY WAY POSSIBLE. So much for Cameron’s promise, but at least we now know exactly where we stand,

  42. Equimedia predict 56 Remain to 44 Leave so all undecideds go to Remain? Absolutely NO chance of that, reports from the established “experts” are for a break to the status quo, not this time IMO.

  43. Another Big Data prediction, this time in the opposite direction:

    http://sense-eu.info/

    They have Leave 51% Stay 49%

  44. @Somerjohn,

    Last year 40,000 UK citizen emigrated. That’s world-wide, not just to the EU. I can’t find reliable figures for Spain but I understand that the tide has turned in the opposite direction already, with Brits returning from Spain faster than they go there.

    Even if no Briton ever moved to the EU ever again, it would be hard to imagine that ending free movement of people wouldn’t result in a reduction in net migration to the UK.

    How much is hard to say of course. It depends on how many student visas we hand out (half the non-EU arrivals come as students) and how many family members of existing UK residents come to join them (the second biggest cohort of non-EU migrants after students). It also depends on the skills and labour situation in the UK. If the economists are wrong, and our economy stays in decent shape, we may well continue to have EU migrants coming in fairly large numbers (although they will be competing with non-EU workers – which may be a good thing for us, who will get to set the bar correspondingly higher in terms of the value a migrant brings).

    If the UK economy tanks then perhaps the rate of EU migrants will fall massively.

    The point is, the UK government will have ultimate say. And if we don’t like what they do we can vote in a new one.

  45. @Roy

    That isn’t what Juncker said at all. Stop spinning. He clearly meant that there is no better offer coming via a Leave vote. That was all he said, no more, no less. If the requisite majority of member states want to reform further there is nothing Juncker can do to stop it.

  46. Usual crystal ball gazing……how boring.

    I am surprised that anyone would claim that it will be anything but close. The undecided voters will not go as heavily for remain as some experts think, but they will still be mostly for remain.
    There is still nothing that changes my forecast for a very narrow remain win.

  47. @Essbe,

    I think the hope is that the overall number of migrants will fall. It’s not in the UK’s interests to reject migrants who bring needed skills or investment. I don’t think most Brexiteers want that. Of course there are extreme elements supporting Brexit that want all sorts of strange and nasty things, from white supremacy to a Soviet socialist republic. But most leavers just want overall numbers to come down, and for policy to be decided in the UK.

  48. @Candy

    Big data ought to be more reliable in binary decisions. But who knows, it’s pretty uncharted waters. And slready one bit of big data disagrees with another! Not sure how big data can factor for likelihood to vote?

  49. @Candy

    It would stand to reason that they got the Scottish Referendum right given the very high turnout, the engagement of younger voters and lower voting age – all of which would tend towards giving a bigger voice than is usual in elections to the core users of social media: the young.

    The opposite is obviously true of the GE, where the young and e-enabled simply didn’t follow through on their online rhetoric and Labour support (anyone remember Millifandom?).

    Ultimately, I suppose it comes down to whether they’ve done any tweaking to take account of the inherent weaknesses in the pool of data they are trawling from (facebook has birth dates in the public section of many people’s profiles, this could be used as proxy) and modelled the results in some way to reflect an approximation of what the electorate might be.

    Perhaps that goes against the whole notion of big data… that the quantity is so vast that the quality becomes of secondary importance. I’m tempted to say that if those same older voters who came out for Cameron in 2015 are coming out for Leave this time, and still haven’t made it on to social media this forecast might be off beam.

    Then again, it looks very similar to what NatCen, with all their rigour found…

  50. @NEIL WILSON

    “As I said. It is 88%. That frees up slots for higher-paid workers from the rest of the world.”

    I.e. Indian IT workers coming here to take our jobs. Lovely.

1 7 8 9 10 11 12