Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. ‘I do understand the concerns of yourself, and others about potential Turkish accession to the EU.’

    Neither do I – it requires all members of the EU to agree. Let’s start off with Cyprus whose country has been invaded by Turkey since the 1970s; they would never allow Turkey to enter. Never.

    Then there are a million other problems as well (human rights records etc just for one where they fail entry tests. It’s just never going to happen.

    It’s just such an impossibility it’s ridiculous – but a great scare story (again) by the quitters…

  2. @JACK

    Another problem with Turkey joining the EU, is Geographical, they are not in Europe.

    Strange how this is ignored.

  3. @assiduosity – as it happens, I’m not bothered about Turkish accession as such. It’s complex as you say – do we reject them and risk a more islamic or Rusiian dominated neighbour? Is full membership a risk worth taking in that context?

    All you said in your post confirms my central point – that perhaps the EU needs to find another means to adopt new members, short of full membership but still confering advantages.

    At some point, logically, the EU needs to stop expanding. Is China going to be a candidate member? How and when this limit is reached, and how we deal with nations on the other side of wherever the boundary is set, is a central issue to resolve which no one is yet thinking about. This really is the debate we need, not a sterile debate on one country.

  4. Somerjohn

    This was my original post
    Well tell me, How long do you think it takes to build a house let alone a town with all main services? The influx last year was I believe 360000, Now if only 1 in 4 require a home we need to build 90000 houses a year just to sand still which is 264 per day. This figure takes no account of birth rates but works out at 11 houses an hour this year alone. this figure also does not include the approximate 2 million who are at present on the social housing lists in the UK.
    Mass immigration is illogical at its present rate.

    Now it is true that consecutive governments have failed to plan future housing, school places and roads but we are where we are and we have no way of catching up. the population increase (a new city the size of Newcastle) every year is a logistic impossibility, and as we already have aproximately 2 million UK citizens waiting for social in the UK supply will increasingly outstrip demand. This as I am sure many are aware puts upward pressure on rents and house prices thus increasing debt and homelessness.

    However I have just seen a report by the BDI (Germany’s CBI) rubbishing any claim that Germany will put up trade barriers should we leave. So the economic forecasts are probably rubbish

  5. I am in full agreement with those posters that view turnout as crucial to the outcome. In terms of polling methodology it is difficult to model in a general election when previous behaviour is at least a guide to future actions: this referendum to that extent is much less predictable. Turnout in safe Labour seats in a GE can be very low, however if this is matter that is of specific concern to “Old Labour” voters the complacency of “my vote will not matter” is removed and therefore the conventional wisdom that those voters are less likely to vote could be wrong in the specific circumstances. Conversely the Eurosceptic Tory vote could be limited by tribal loyalties towards a Prime Minister, conventional wisdom being that Conservatives like to be lead, this could lead to abstentions where a Eurosceptic cannot bear to vote remain or vote against the leader.
    These are obviously only my guesswork as to the type of mechanism that might impact on turnout, I would imagine those polling professionals who earn their bread and butter could think of and model for many more.
    However, purely a gut feeling, based on my own attitude to both campaigns (a curse on both your houses) I think the negativity is likely to drive turnout down, as I indicated above I cannot see turnout exceeding that in the general election.
    That said, given the enormity of the consequences of the decision faced I would urge everyone to make your mind up your own way and use your vote.

  6. @Sorbus

    “Somebody upthread offered his/her anecdotal impression that referendum VI is much more homogeneous within social groups than GE VI. Several have commented that in their area it’s all Remain posters or all Leave posters.”

    These observations on social class and locality keep coming up in these threads.

    It’s a phenomena repeated in my own area – which is absolutely Remain, I noted 32 homes with posters in the windows on a 10 minute walk to the park this morning, whereas we would get fewer but more diverse posters at election time.

    However, I don’t believe these two factors can be regarded in isolation, geography and locality is as much a determining factor as social class – in some places (Scotland) geography / nationality is more important in other places (Wales) social class probably has the upper hand in determining or indicating VI.

    Overlaying these complex patterns onto differential turnout is undoubtedly the problem at hand – it seems to be what NatCen were trying to do, but what they gained in subtlety they lost in the currency of their results as the field work was extended over much of the campaign.

  7. You can take my head, but you’ll never take my PARAPET!!!!! Maybe AW could use the UKPR parapet to put the heads of people who ignore the comments policy…. although I now realise that I’m first on the list for going off-topic *ducks head back below*

    On turnout, I’m actually surprised that the differential turnout between demographic groups isn’t used more often. Not to advertise the competition, but over on 538 (Nate Silver’s site), they have a interactive gizmo (not unlike the old swingometer that used to be here) where you can tweak the turnout of different demographic groups (white college educated, white non-college educated, African-Americans etc.) and the percentages that the Reps and Dems get, so that you can see how various states flip from blue to red and vice versa under differing turnout conditions. From the marked register, and from council information which tells you the SEGs of the area, it’s possible to gauge the differential turnout of old vs young and wealthier vs poorer. It seems rather obvious that someone who’s willing to answer the phone to talk about politics for 20 minutes, or to fill out an on-line form, is likely to be more engaged and hence more likely to vote than the average punter. I know that the pollsters have tried to get around this by trying to include hard-to-reach voters in their sample (which is why I found that Natcen poll that most people rubbished for being too old a very interesting one), but I still think that weighting towards a demographic that actually voted in a real election must be better than taking for granted the responses of a naturally more-engaged sample of voters.

  8. @Colin

    Interesting interview with Lilico. My own thoughts on whether to leave were around the future of the EuroZone and effects on non EZ countries. On reflection though I think Lilico has got it wrong. Although the EZ needs to integrate to survive the pilitical will just isn’t there and the EZ will unwind over time, a victim of its own internal contradictions.

    The question is whether it is better to be in or out while the successor EU is being shaped. On balance I think that in wins but it is by no means clearcut.

  9. Sorry WB and Assiduosity – we were basically posting the same things at the same time!

  10. @ louiswalshvotesgreen

    no need for apologies its nice to be on topic and in agreement (an increasingly rare combination amongst some posters lately)

  11. @ESSBE

    “Another problem with Turkey joining the EU, is Geographical, they are not in Europe.
    Strange how this is ignored.”

    The provinces of Turkey that make up Eastern Thrace, also known as Turkish Thrace, including historic Istanbul are in Europe.

    They account for a small proportion of Turkish landmass but about 10 million of the 80 million population.

    More generally speaking, as a point of delineation between continents, the Bosphorous is hardly the Pacific.

    In the fairly recent past, until the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the region, and the Levant to its south would have been seen as an intermediary zone between Europe and Asia. Not belonging fully to either

    In many ways this survives, Turkey (and some others) are grouped with Europe by the UN, sporting and other international bodies.

  12. @WB and @LWVG

    A rare moment of calm and consensus.

    I also thought the NatCen poll was a rigorous piece of work.

    Whether or not it proves to be a good predictor may actually help with some age-old questions: is sampling accuracy better than currency in polling and do campaigns, particularly in their final few, fraught days actually change very much at all…

  13. @Alec

    “All you said in your post confirms my central point – that perhaps the EU needs to find another means to adopt new members, short of full membership but still confering advantages.”

    Precisely the kind of interesting and important debate about the future size, shape and purpose of the EU we should have been having as part of the referendum.

    If the Remain campaign had delivered a distinctly British ‘Vision for Europe’, perhaps they might have had a more positive message to play against their opponents.

    A missed opportunity.

  14. @Joseph1832
    I agree that reliance on imported labour in key sectors is not a good long term solution.
    I suspect (but have no data to prove) that many of these issues are regional, and often specific to the south east and London.

    We need to start to consider the alternatives to imported labour:
    – a major increase in the build rate for social housing in the south east so that the under-employed in the regions can move to the areas where skills are needed (but the current government is viscerally opposed to expansion of social housing, so this is a tricky problem to solve);
    – a significant increase in wages in the care sector (but care sector wages are effectively set by the NHS and/or local councils by reference to care allowances, so this requires significant increases in local authority/NHS spending – again, tricky);
    -a cultural shift toward valuing our sick and elderly far more than we do, and in valuing the staff who look after them, i.e. recognising the vocational nature of the work (the cheapest option, but in my opinion the hardest to achieve).

    It’s a hard problem to fix – but my suspicion is that exiting the EU and leaving the ‘market’ to sort it out will not end well…

    @David Carrod
    Well, we need some millions more housing units already due to people living longer, divorce rates etc; immigration is a relatively minor contributor to the housing shortage.

    The real problem is that the private sector only builds when it is most profitable, and the right-of-centre governments are viscerally opposed to community base social housing (either local council or housing association led) and very wary of greenfield development in core areas. The same applies to school places – local authorities could solve this problem if allowed and funded, but the current administration would never accept them as part of the solution. In education the answer is always ‘academies’, whatever the question….

    Once again immigrants and the EU are an easy excuse for what is fundamentally a failure of government policy.

  15. No matter how you cut it, Turkey isn’t in Europe.

  16. Istanbul feels European – great city, the rest of the country…not so much

    What polls are there to come? Will there be a final Yougov?

  17. @drmibbles,

    Who cares how Istanbul feels. Lol. The country is in Asia. I can’t understand how this is not coming up, simply put its not a European country, or over 97% of it isn’t. The only plus point about it joining the EU would be it would certainly have to improve the dreadful human rights record it has.

  18. @Rich

    “No matter how you cut it, Turkey isn’t in Europe.”

    Part is, part isn’t.

    The same goes for Russia.

  19. @Rich

    “Who cares how Istanbul feels. ”

    The reason why Istanbul feels like it’s in Europe is because much of it – or at least the parts most tourists visit – is in Europe.

    Endless repetition does not establish fact. If there’s one thing this whole campaign should have taught us all it is that.

  20. Followed this site for a while, first time comment… What do people make of the story about hedge funds commissioning private exit polling?

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e26d896-241c-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#axzz4CJeayz1Y

    I just can’t see how it can be reliable, especially if the race is tight. As the article says:

    “Any exit polls are likely to be less reliable than the one after the 2015 general election because that relied on an analysis of the change in voting shares for different political parties in polling stations that had also been surveyed in 2010.”

    You wouldn’t want to be betting big on unreliable data. One possibility is that these articles are out there to create the belief that there will be inside knowledge on the day, then you can have a situation where a small FX movement can start a bandwagon in one direction. You then bet in the other direction and make a much bigger profit. That is of course if you are sure of the outcome in the first place.

    Or am I being too cynical? Although we should expect any exit poll to be less reliable than the 2015 GE, it should be more reliable that the current polls since they are based on people who have actually voted. But there are still problems with demographics, time of voting, etc, that would need to be adjusted for.

    What do people think?

  21. Good afternoon all from a warm sunny and breezy Itchen Valley.

    Off topic…Had a great time over in France and manged to take in 3 matches, one of which was the Wales V Russia match and fantastic that all 3 home nations are through to the last 16.

    On topic….

    Britain Elects [email protected] 4h4 hours ago
    At least two #EUref polls due today:
    1630hrs: Opinium, online (prev. tie)
    2200hrs: ComRes, phone (prev. Remain +1)

    Should be interesting..

  22. “Endless repetition does not establish fact.”

    ————

    Well it does sometimes. Like, if someone accused you of being repetitive, and you were then indeed repetitive. That might establish being repetitive as a fact..

    Jus’ sayin’…

  23. There’s Opinium online and a telephone poll from ComRes coming today

  24. @assidusoisty,

    Ok, so on balance, is turkey European or Asian would you say?? it’s Asian, or like 90% plus of it is, which is why European membership makes no geographical sense at all. I don’t expect any of you left wingers to take note of this glaringly obvious point, but there you go.

  25. What country will they invite next? Bhutan?

    Why are they not concentrating on persuading Norway or Switzerland? lol.

  26. @DrMIbbles

    “Istanbul feels European – great city, the rest of the country…not so much”

    I’d suggest Izmir – probably the most ‘European’ city in Turkey – despite being in ‘Asia’. Not to be confused with the surrounding resort towns.

    A settlement of 4,000 years standing with corniche, opera house, museums, fine concert hall and shopping, wonderful fish restaurants and within striking distance of Ephesus.

    It’s a stronghold of the CHP, the left of centre opposition to the current regime.

  27. THE MONK

    @”The question is whether it is better to be in or out while the successor EU is being shaped. On balance I think that in wins but it is by no means clearcut.”

    That is where I got to-with a day to spare!

    But I can’t register a positive vote for Stay or Leave , given my feelings about the conduct of the Campaign.

    So I’m happy to await the natural process of EU morphing into EZ-knowing we won’t be there.

    I understand why you think there is a lack of political will for fiscal/political union-but the voters of the Northern Membership will have to decide which is most acceptable to them :-

    Fiscal/Political union-or never ending Bailouts & Sovereign Debt crises with increasingly desperate migration flows.

  28. @Carfrew

    That, as they say is the exception which proves the rule.

  29. # managed…

    ASSIDUOSITY
    @Rich

    “Endless repetition does not establish fact. If there’s one thing this whole campaign should have taught us all it is that”
    ______

    Endless regurgitation on Turkish history doesn’t help the campaign. I’m not sure how the history of Ottoman empire will alleviate peoples fears in Winchester regarding the prospect of Turkey one day joining the EU.

  30. @Rich

    “Ok, so on balance, is turkey European or Asian would you say?”

    On balance I’d say that part of Turkey is in Europe and part in Asia as I prefer the truth as opposed to false and unnecessary over simplifications.

  31. ESSBE

    I was talking to a Cypriot friend the other day, and he says that all UK Cypriots have been encouraged by their prime minster to vote remain. There are 300,000 Cypriots in the UK and I imagine a good number have British passports.

    All those with EU Cypriot passports will be able to vote as well because they are Commonwealth citizens and can vote in all elections and always could have done. But the idea that there are 300,000 Cypriots in the UK is a myth. According to the latest figures (for 2014):

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/population-by-country-of-birth-and-nationality/2014/rft-table-5-pop-by-cob-jan-14-to-dec-14.xls

    (see table 1.3)

    there are only about 60,000 people born in Cyprus in the UK – and some of those will be Forces babies[1] with few Cypriot ties.

    There will of course be many more born in the UK of Cypriot heritage and there may be some born in the Turkish sector who are not included, but it does look like a big over-estimation.

    Incidentally that table highlights something that rarely gets pointed out in discussions of immigration. Most EU immigration is female not male. Only for a handful of countries (eg Italy, Romania, Hungary) do men outnumber women and not by much – it’s mostly the other way. And yet the impression you would get is one of men coming in – maybe the facts would be less threatening.

    [1] This applies even more to the figures for those born in Germany.

  32. @assiduosity,

    No you are clearly manipulating language and the truth to suit the argument. If I put my finger in a bowl of water, I guess using your analogy, part of me is having a bath…

    I have got the exact figures to help you.

    Turkey has a total land area of 783,562 km2 (302,535 sq mi), of which 756,816 km2 (292,208 sq mi) are in Western Asia (Anatolia) with a small area of 23,764 km2 (9,175 sq mi) in Southeastern Europe (Thrace).

    To class this country as part of the European Union still doesn’t make geographical sense to me. Surely this is more political?

  33. THOUGHTFUL

    Having now seen the so called death threat received by Yvette Cooper, I can conclude that the woman has gone completely over the top if she takes this in the slightest bit seriously.

    I rather believe she is using this post Jo Cox as a campaigning strategy as it certainly doesn’t look to me as a realistic & serious threat in any way.

    I think that’s unfair. What you have forgotten is that Cooper is one of those rare people with absolutely no sense of humour at all. So what nearly anyone else would see as a hyperbolic if rather tasteless[1] joke, she may have taken seriously – even though she has no grandchildren and it came from a named account.

    It was clearly aimed Labour’s usual strategy of blitzing every e-mail address they have ever collected under every opportunity[2]. The one thing that the old guard at Labour seemed to believe about social media was that quantity beat quality. As with most of their few beliefs this is wrong.

    [1] But then it was on Twitter, so what do you expect.

    [2] This predates Corbyn’s victory so it can’t be blamed on his followers.

  34. @Allan Christie

    “I’m not sure how the history of Ottoman empire will alleviate peoples fears in Winchester regarding the prospect of Turkey one day joining the EU.”

    You’ve joined the conversation rather late.

    More recent history on Turkey’s relationship with the European Community since it’s first application for membership in 1959 should provide the comfort people worried about imminent accession require.

    It’s all up thread, I’m not repeating myself.

    However, to return to polling, you point out quite rightly that it is sentiment rather than fact which has shaped people’s VI in this referendum.

    I’d suggest that it’s too late to do much about that – on either side – at this 11th hour. If anything ratcheting up rhetoric by either campaign is likely to prove counter productive.

  35. Nearly 97% of Turkey is officially classed as geographically in Asia. 3% in Europe.

  36. Roy: “The influx last year was I believe 360000”

    Actually, 333,000. But more than half of that is non-EU, so for the purpose of this debate, we should surely only be looking at the EU component.

    If, following Brexit, the government imposes the same controls on EU migrants as non-EU, the effect is likely to be limited. I haven’t seen any claims or estimates in this respect from Leave, but controls failed to stop non-EU net migration rising from 138,000 in the year ending September 2013, to 201,000 in the year ending June 2015.

    And if your concern is about the pressure of net migration on housing, hospitals etc, you should think about the likely influx of returning UK expats that is likely if the EU starts to control our citizens in the way Leave campaigners intend to start controlling theirs.

  37. If I ran this website I would probably have given up on moderating these threads by now, but I think the end of Andrew111’s comment of June 21st, 2016 at 11:51 pm might actually constitute contempt of court and could do with snipping.

  38. @ Rich

    “Turkey has a total land area of 783,562 km2 (302,535 sq mi), of which 756,816 km2 (292,208 sq mi) are in Western Asia (Anatolia) with a small area of 23,764 km2 (9,175 sq mi) in Southeastern Europe (Thrace).”

    Quite so. My initial comment was in fact:

    “The provinces of Turkey that make up Eastern Thrace, also known as Turkish Thrace, including historic Istanbul are in Europe.
    They account for a small proportion of Turkish landmass but about 10 million of the 80 million population.”

    That seems pretty consistent with what you’re saying – I’d even guess we might have the same source material.

    None of which alters the fact that Turkey is partly in Europe and partly in Asia.

    If you want to argue about whether Turkey should be eligible to join the EU or not go ahead, I’m afraid I won’t join in that discussion.

  39. What a bore these threads are becoming.

    Any opinions on Portugal v Hungary at 5pm?

  40. ^ what, so you wouldn’t argue their human rights are not currently compatible with the eurozone? I would…

  41. “What a bore these threads are becoming.

    Any opinions on Portugal v Hungary at 5pm?”

    Much as I hate to tear myself away from this European and Asian geography discussion thread, I won’t be watching the footy, as we’ve had an edict from the local VL campaign co-ordinator to be at a busy roundabout near the centre of town at 5pm, handing out the remainder of the leaflet stock to homeward bound commuters.

    Then I’ve got to do the morning shift tomorrow outside the local polling station, making sure there’s no undue influencing of voters by the other lot – not that I’ve seen any evidence of Remain camp activity anywhere around here.

    I’ll be glad when Friday morning comes and it’s all over – except that it probably won’t be.

  42. The tracker shows leave at 45.9 and remain at 45 with don’t knows at 9.1

    I imagine there will be long night on Thursday through to Friday- recounts anybody?

  43. ASSIDUOSITY

    I don’t think anyone realistically thinks Turkey will join the EU as a full member anytime soon but there are people (like me) who do fear a sort of mission creep by stealth by the EU to lift some restrictions on Turkish nationals being able to come into the EU on the back of deals over the migrant crises.

    What annoys me about the whole EU project is that it’s sometimes used as a political weapon either against its own members such as Greece or to outside countries such as Turkey and the Balkans and Russia.

    And you mentioned facts or the lack of facts….so true, I’ve not heard anyone tell us where and when the EU project will end? Will it include the Ukraine? Serbia, Turkey, or even one day Russia? It’s European right up to the Urals. There is no end in sight to the EU project.

  44. @Somerjohn,

    If the other EU countries start to control UK migration the way Leave proposes to control theirs, very few will come back.

    Vote Leave isn’t a political party, so it’s a bit of a non sequitur anyway as they don’t have policies. But senior supporters have suggested that EU citizens already living and working in the UK are likely to be granted leave to remain.

    If other EU countries reciprocated, who exactly do you think will be sent back here?

    Stuff and nonsense are not the unique preserves of Brexiteers.

  45. My personal feeling is that leave is ahead, but by a tiny amount, I assume 1-2%. Given that opinion polls are England centric, I would expect the Celtic vote to redress the balance to a certain extent. It will be painfully close.

    Given the closeness of the votes there will be bitterness and recriminations the day after. British politics will turn nasty and stay that way for a long time to come, I am sorry to say.

  46. WB
    The tracker shows leave at 45.9 and remain at 45 with don’t knows at 9.1
    I imagine there will be long night on Thursday through to Friday- recounts anybody?
    ______

    I don’t think there will be any recounts at individual counts and I also think the final vote will be determined by the turnout of DK’s. If most DK’s come out and vote then I’m assuming they will vote for the status quo and hand remain victory however if most don’t and as polls have shown younger voters are less likely to go out and vote than older voters then leave will win quite comfortably .

  47. @Allan Christie

    All of those are legitimate concerns.

    I assume what you mean is – rather than visa free travel, which is something of a red herring – that the EU might extend the right to live and work in Europe to certain groups of Turkish citizens, or perhaps a quota each year in exchange for a deal over the migrant crisis. I can see that would be problematic to many people, and would be a perfectly proper area for debate.

    Honestly, I’ve never thought about this as a proposition so I would be interested to hear that debate, as I don’t have a view now. But so much has been drowned out by platitudes on both sides that there’s been little space for this discussion.

    Likewise the truly important discussion about the vision for the ‘EU project’ – not least where will it end geographically is one that hasn’t been heard. This is a tragedy. Not least because I think that there are many in Italy, Germany and especially the Netherlands and France – of all political persuasions, who would welcome this particular topic being aired.

    In brief, I agree this referendum debate has been short of facts and any attempt to look at a bigger picture. It’s been a wasted opportunity to open up a wider discussion on Europe.

  48. @assiduosity

    “In brief, I agree this referendum debate has been short of facts and any attempt to look at a bigger picture. It’s been a wasted opportunity to open up a wider discussion on Europe.”

    This is very true, but is in essence the problem. No one premier can possibly discuss where the EU is going, or what its aims are or anything at all about its future, as they have no power over it. They can only point their thruster and hope the rest will agree.

  49. For a matter of clarity both sides should say regardless of turnout the final result should be respected.

    If remain win and the turnout is around 62%-67% then its a win (even though under 50% of the electorate voted to remain) and should be accepted by all however going how undemocratic the EU project is and the megaphone diplomacy from some of the remain side then a leave win on a turnout of 62%-67% will probably have shouts of no legitimacy owing to the fact that under 50% of the UK electorate actually voted to leave.

    The EU will probably ask the UK to vote again and again and again until it gets the result it wants. Unfortunately if such a scenario came up then the majority of MP’s in Westminster would probably be only too happy to oblige

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