Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. @DSL

    I am predicting 52% for remain and 48% leave. No scientific analysis, just a gut feeling and my view that polls are not taking into account the Celtic vote.

  2. “Snap online polls are not representative – pretty obvious isn’t it?”

    the YouGov poll is weighted to be representative – so, Leave won the debate in the view of more people

  3. Posted for the record & without comment, because after the referendum, it looks like recriminations are getting in early !

    http://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/david-keighleys-bbc-watch-how-state-propaganda-linked-coxs-death-to-farages-poster/

  4. I tried posting this with links but it went into moderation, so lets try without!

    Ok has anyone resolved the disagreement between the Guardian and the Telegraph about Friday morning?

    Guardian says Sunderland will announce their local result at 12.30 am

    Telegraph says we have to wait for regional results at 4am at the earliest

    Now you know this is a life-changing issue! I am certainly not going to stay up till 4 am watching Dimbleby talk endlessly to some superannuated political hacks about nothing. But 12.30 am, that is more like it!

    Manchester Evening News tonight suggests the Guardian is correct

  5. TANCRED

    “flag waving leave fanatics”

    Can we stop with this nonsense please? This is a non-partisan site for discussing polling.

    I am voting Leave and I have never waved a flag in my life. I am also a Labour party member who voted for Corbyn, but I have made up my own mind about the EU based on a reasoned analysis of the evidence.

  6. I trust my own predictions based on my own extensive 4 month research is well known enough not to require further repetition. I have read this site since 2010 i believe and mainly posted of late to express deep appreciation of the founder of the site, the fabulous data resources and all the comments from every person.
    I pray God blesses you all.
    We will soon know whether we have status quo or Independence Day.

  7. I’m wondering if the polls factor in those 70, 80 and 90 year olds who don’t use the internet and don’t own a smartphone or even a mobile, in some cases. There are quite a lot of them, they tend to vote and instinctively I think they’ll mostly vote ‘Leave’.

  8. @ ANDREW111

    I suspect, as I posted earlier, we’ll know where it’s going after Sunderland.

    Strong leave and it’s going to be a Brexit.

  9. Ok, I am back, and refreshed. Stand by yer beds!

    To those suggesting that Don’t Knows will break for Remain, study the Survation poll at the head of this thread. I appreciate that there will be churn, and it’s all within MOE etc etc, but it appears that of the 2% of Don’t Knows who have made up their mind, they have all gone to Leave.

    I think that this is enough to throw doubt on the idea that Don’t knows at this stage will break mainly for Remain.

  10. Tancred, I agree with you. I believe ORB about where the DNs will land and when I add the NI and celtic affect, I’m guessing 56/44. Tis only a guess though!

  11. Would some kind person want to collect the forecasts we are now giving — so at the end of this farce we can see who got closest?

    I would do it myself but :
    a. This entire debate is giving me a near-nervous breakdown!
    b. I am useless at tasks like collating, and I would stuff it up!

  12. Gisela Stuart is my MP.

    She has a wafer thin majority.

    She is already loathed by the Cobynistas in the Labour Party, and by the majority of the left. She was already near the top of the national list for the left to deselect.

    Her prominence in the leave campaign has now dismayed those in Labour in this seat who did still support her.

    But no voters of other parties seem to be finding her stance is winning them over to vote for her and Labour.

    Whatever the result of the referendum her chances of being deselected now seem remarkably high.

    And her chances of winning the seat in the next election if she is still the candidate dangerously low.

    Numerous unprompted constituents that previously voted for her have volunteered to me their view that they would never vote for her again. Hearsay its true, but it included at a large church non party political meeting who had no reason to have an axe to grind.

    I understand she is now liked by some parts of the UK, perhaps she has been ‘brave’, but I’m guessing she intends to stand elsewhere in future because she has effectively committed “political suicide” in Birmingham Edgbaston.

  13. @Candy

    Funnily enough I was just reading the Herald on the matter. This bit from the Telegraph is of note…

    “However, Nicola McEwen, professor of territorial politics at the University of Edinburgh, has warned it would be “unlikely” that an independent Scotland could become an EU member after Brexit while keeping sterling – the currency of what would then be a non-EU state.

    Instead the academic warned that Scotland may face stricter terms to retain EU membership including signing up to the euro and greater restrictions on the public spending deficit it could operate.

    Kevin Pringle, Alex Salmond’s former chief spin doctor, has previously warned that using Brexit as a trigger for a second referendum would create an “added layer of complexity” on issues like the currency.”

    I.e. it may not matter if there are “plans” or not, as Oldnat put it. Not like him to duck and issue. Quack quack…

  14. I have heard both stories about how the results will be given. Surely they will give us the constituencies?

    If this is so, then Sunderland will give the answer very early on, and we can all go to bed in despair or rejoicing.

  15. Jonathan- I was just thinking that very thing during tonight’s debate. She has taken a huge political risk. She’s no spring chicken though so perhaps she doesn’t care.

  16. @Thoughtful

    thanks for the link!

    Amazing! I did not realise the BBC was being monitored by Conservative women for “pro-EU bias”

    I would have said that by focusing exclusively on David Cameron rather than more convincing spokespeople for the EU like Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas and virtually anyone from the Labour Party they have done the Leave campaign a great favour. I also think the daily refrain of “independent expert body says Leave will be bad for Britain” immediately followed by “Leave spokesperson says they are just in the pay of Cameron” has been very much in Brexit favour… ow about letting a Remain spokesperson comment on the independent opinion now and again??

    I notice that David Keighley calls Jo Cox’s killer a “gunman with mental health issues” without mentioning how he chose to name himself in court! Very unbiased!

  17. JONATHAN

    I think Gisela is just doing what she thinks is right, rather than seeking to further her career. She may not be too worried if the Labour Party decide to deselect her. She will be 65 at the next election.

  18. Reading these threads there is no possibility of proper interpretation of polls as one side seizes one juicy bit of news and other seizes the other. Clearly the momentum is with leave and has been for a few weeks now, but it’s far from clear cut. My gut feeling is that many people will not decide until the last minute. I live on a new build estate in Berkshire and of 1,500 houses I have seen only one poster – for remain. Incredible. I think many people are bored to death of the entire thing and just want to get on with their lives – this makes me think that the non-political will vote remain. Just my gut feeling, I could be wrong.

  19. ANDREW111
    I tried posting this with links but it went into moderation, so lets try without!

    One link in a post doesn’t get auto modded. Any more and it does.

  20. JonesinBangor
    “I suspect, as I posted earlier, we’ll know where it’s going after Sunderland.”

    I’m not so sure. For example, if we can use UKIP support as a proxy for Leave support (though at a lower level obviously), it is very patchy. Much stronger in areas such as East England, certain coastal areas in the South East, and the South-West. The West Midlands elected 3 UKIP MEPs as well.

  21. the totally non political have a tendency not to vote

  22. Jones in Bangor/Andyo

    I am not sure I have much faith in the predictions of that website about how different areas will vote on a dead heat, so Sunderland would have to be outside the Vote Leave 43-63% range before I would dare predict the result!

  23. Barbazenzero

    Thanks, I put in three!

  24. Gisela is not an important politician – not even worth talking about her. The leave camp wanted two women with Boris rather than that crashing bore Michael Gove, so they went for the late middle aged ladies who appeal to the average grandmother. Not sure why, but they oozed reassurance and the ‘take back control’ mantra was designed to do just that – reassure. Priti Patel is , well, just too pretty (!) and Farage too strident and right wing.

  25. Looking st the last couple of polls there seems to be a small shift towards leave. I think this could be because the shock of last Thursdays tragic murder has softened and people are heading back towards leave.

  26. Adam
    Good point. I was thinking the same, so it’s obviously sensible :-)

  27. Tancred,

    Posters in windows vote in Kirklees that I have seen (and I have been looking!: 4 Remain and one Leave (one of which is in mine…)

    In other words Yorkshire folk play their cards close to their chests!

    I am quite surprised at the reports of many Leave and Remain posters in some parts of the country. Here there are a few of each on lamp posts (the Kirklees tradition) but only a tiny fraction of what was up in the local elections last month…

  28. Some of the comments, “research”, “analysis of evidence” do remind me to an anti-vax forum – sad. And we even have our own crusader (with some very pertinent points, to add very quickly).

    The polls show neck and neck. One can doubt them, they were very wrong in May 2015, and I’m not at all convinced that their changes in methodology is really strong, but this is what we have. We also have anecdotes, but they are not the synonyms of data. In addition we have a question that cuts through traditional parties – and people have to make up their mind about it (inevitably both sides gets polluted). When UKIP (or right of them) meet tankies on a common platform (the absolute value of -a and a are the same) …

    Then you have a big traffic on the Damascus road (from Johnson in particular, but also from Corbyn). As none of these seem to have mattered – ideology (well, one or a very few aspects of the ideologies matter) is decisive, so ToH’s point back in last May about the supplementary questions might have an even bigger importance here.

    As I said my social class won’t be particularly affected either way the referendum goes, but a huge number of people may recognise that they actually wanted a different horse (this is what is wrong with the referendum, forcing an internal Conservative debate onto the nations of the U.K.). But it’s here.

    I have actually never experienced the British as in the last few weeks in media, social media, and face to face. It could have always been there, just couldn’t come up onto the surface, or it would have never come up had it not been teased out. I really can’t believe how little slogans can trigger huge emotions (so much for researching the evidence).

    For the time being I’m with the polls – neck and neck, and the question is turnout: organisation of taking the voters out to vote.

  29. Adam,

    Jo Cox is going to be top of the news again later today since it would have been her birthday, and big commemorations are planned..

    But Anthony showed pretty convincingly that the swingback to Remain was mainly before her death. I agree that Leave will be encouraged by the latest polls, although just like the last general election they are showing suspicious convergence! (and remember how wrong they were on the day!)

  30. Laszlo
    Interesting post, but can you explain a couple of terms to me please?

    ‘anti-vax’
    ‘tankies’

  31. God knows how old I am but I can only remember the 70s referendum forward and I don’t remember the establishment losing a single vote. Dunno what that says about the British!

  32. Prediction (based on gut feel, nothing more, but it worked for some in GE15).

    Remain 55%
    Leave 45%
    Turnout 58%

  33. Laszlo,

    I hope you have not been too put off by us British in the referendum!

    I suspect that if I met most of the people on here on a train I would find them quite pleasant to talk to..

    And I do not thing the British are any different to any other nationality in believing a lie they would like to believe (like £100k per week more money for the NHS) if said sufficiently confidently…

  34. @ Pete B

    Anti-Vax – anti vaccination (of children, adults, dogs, cats) on the basis of perceived dangers of autism and every possible diseases to or lack of response to any medical treatment in the the subject of vaccination.

    Tankies: supposedly lefties, who think that North Korea is a paradise, and only the wicked ruling classes (through various means) obstruct the masses to rise against the “system” – essentially SWP combined with an incomprehension of the historic context of Stalin’s policies.

    I hope it helps

  35. I would like to ask one poll related question: should we ban the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to a referendum or election, as they do in France and a number of other countries? The rationale presumably being that it would stop tactical voting or encourage people to vote for one side for whimsical reasons?

  36. I’ll make my prediction as the average of the final polls then add 2.3% to leave, take 2.3% from remain.

    Where does the 2.3% come from?

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/

    “Combined, we calculate that these two factors related to age and political engagement make up 2.3% of the 3.7% total error.”

    and this comment from the pdf

    “Looking at age the BSA and BES have both consistently shown a strong correlation between age and likelihood to vote. While this pattern was also present in our ?nal poll, it was not nearly so marked. In BES and BSA data the proportion of retired people who vote is around thirty percentage points higher than the proportion of under 30s who vote, the difference in our data is only ten percent.

    The same pattern is present in other demographic breaks. In BSA and BES data unemployed respondents are around twenty percent less likely than employed respondents to report having voted at the preceding general election.

    In YouGov’s data unemployed respondents are only six percent less likely to report having voted in the 2015 election. The pattern of younger,less af?uent voters being less likely to vote which is present in random samples and implied by actual election results is far less stark within our ?gures. Given that our validation data suggests only a relatively small proportion of this is from people falsely reporting whether they voted or not this suggests that young people and people from less af?uent backgrounds in our polls are not representative and are too likely to turnout to vote”

    Looking at the tables for a few of the final polls, I still see the young over represented after adjusting for turnout, so I am going to assume the error is still in place. As age is such a strong predictor of in vs out that pretty much matches cons vs lab difference in the 2015 election, that will mean the polls will be wrong again.

  37. As per suggestions on giving our predictions on what we consider will be the final result. I have studied many polls over the last two months and pretty much always felt remain would get it by 55/45. However, in the last two weeks there has definitely been a closing of the gap and it has made the call much closer. I am also swayed which I appreciate is dangerous but from my personal discussions with people this does NOT coincide with results shown by pollsters. I think I should also put my cards on the table and say up front I am for brexit. That said, my head says 52/48 for remain but my forecast for the purposes of the prediction forecast I am going to bring in my outside of the polls feelings and my own general feeling for the feel and mood of the country and so my final and projected result is 53/47 for LEAVE.

  38. Pete B

    I relied, but it went into moderation. So, trying to take out the bits that may be the problem (but please look back if AW releases it).
    Anti-vax: anti vaccination, tankies: kind of student radicalism that glorifies North Korea.

  39. Andrew 111, I think the Jo Cox bday celebrations will galvanise some voters into going to the polls. We shall see if the young vote increases.

  40. Laszlo
    Thanks. I was amazed about what tankies means, but I suppose it’s only on a par with nutters of my generation glorifying Castro and Guevara.

  41. @ Laszlo

    Say hello to Britain’s id, in all its, ahem, glory!

    Fantasies of the UK being oppressed by dictatorial foreigners have been a regular feature of British literary popular fiction of the last century or more. What was once a fun fictional device in the pages of Orwell, Deighton or Amis has, in the past few months, turned weirdly into a political platform.

    We have discovered that such things as how many new schools, homes or roads are built, or the level of wages, are not in fact determined by governments or employers, as previously thought, but by foreign immigrants, who are depicted as simultaneously ignorant and unskilled fruit pickers, and all-powerful controllers of every aspect of British society.

    At some stage we will be obliged to wake up from such fantasies and confront the boring reality again that it is employers who set wages and governments who provide infrastructure and public goods. Immigrants will then cease to be super-powerful agents of doom reducing Britain to penury and chaos. As for the citizens, they will shake their heads and wonder what midsummer madness took hold of them.

  42. @ ANDREW111

    Not at all. Having lived in a number of European countries (none compares with 24 years in the UK) this is still the finest (including my home country).

    It is just strange, almost East-European …

    There is too much expression of uncertainty, lack of confidence … Whereas I have always experienced just the opposite here. If it is real (not my imagination), Thursday won’t resolve it.

  43. AD/AS

    Come on. it’s not all the immigrants. Some of it is the fault of those faceless bureaucrats (how do they eat or breathe without faces?) in Brussels, whos only purpoase in life is to rob us of our downtrodden Saxon heritage ;)

  44. AD/AS

    Long term commenters here know my political affiliation.

    While you are perfectly right in all the three paragraphs, it has to be translated into actions, and these have to overcome the support for the status quo to make the difference, and make the difference to the supplementary questions, and hence the polls.

    Just before this comment I argued against anecdotes, rightly so, but this is one of them. Talking to people (roughly around 50 years of age) in a small Yorkshire town, we have a complete agreement on the causes of their, and their town’s sufferings. They were more radical than me. Then to the solution … And it was all lost … These are the questions to which the Left has not had real answers for decades.

    And it comes back in GEs and in this referendum.

  45. @Laszlo
    By way of contrast, what has surprised me is the level of conviction. Round here it is nearly all for Remain, but most people I speak to are settled and confident in their opinion whether it be stay or go. Less carping than you get in a political election, where many people say I’ll vote Lab or Con or whatever ‘in spite of’, ‘holding my nose’ etc.
    The corollary of this is nobody seems very interested in the debate – especially politicos, many of whom, like me, find it quite unbearable to listen to (either side).
    Actually I think the truth is that nobody is that interested in the debate in any other elections. Votes are driven by impressions and emotions, or vision, if you will. People who say they will look at the manifestos/policies, then decide, are almost invariably talking rubbish.
    The trouble with this campaign, though, is that I fear it has cemented in the feeling that ‘none of them can be trusted’. I think this is dangerous. I wonder whether someone might emerge as the exception who proves he rule, and I wonder if that might be Corbyn.

  46. Newspaper influence?

    I doubt it’s much, but the Scottish Daily Mail front page doesn’t carry any appeal to vote Leave, but has big front page headline from Cameron “Don’t let Brexit destroy the Union”.

    While the English Daily Express free poster has a medieval English knight (or maybe a football fan, or someone eating a Mars bar) demanding “our country back”, the Scottish Daily Express one has a Union flag with “Get Britain out of the EU” superimposed.

    We may all be in the UK, but we certainly aren’t in the same political system.

  47. I’ve just replied to a survey by Yougov about the referendum. One of the questions was
    ‘Which of the following would you say you have been most influenced by in this EU referendum campaign?’

    Options were:
    Politicians
    Friends
    Family
    The media
    Experts
    None of these
    Don’t know

    Politicians was less than 10%. Highest was ‘None of These’- over 40%. Whether analysed by class, age or whatever, the results were pretty consistent.

    It makes you wonder whether campaigning is worth it.

  48. MOG

    Bloody Saxons! What about the Jutes’ heritage? Harrumph!!

  49. It’s very hard to call the result here.

    Personally Mrs B and I had no doubt about voting Remain by PV after Jo Cox was assassinated. It’s clear that a significant minority of R*****s are supporting Out and regard leaving EU as a first step to something rather terrible. They have poisoned the well.

    I don’t deny the intellectual appeal of Leave. The EU is virtually indefensible from the viewpoint of British independence and democracy. Yet the alternative actually seemed worse still.

    However I hope that both sides will accept the result – unconditionally and however close. There can be no nonsense about any part of UK being entitled to anything because of voting “the other way”. We are one UK and a referendum is democracy. I will accept Leave without complaint.

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