Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. Glastonbury starts tomorrow, and yes that’s about a net gain of 100,000 remain voters who one would hope completed a postal vote. But we all know about turnout and the young. Or young-ish, in the case of Galstonbury…

  2. “The internet, and particularly Twitter, Facebook and YouTube seem to be dominated by leave supporters. Not sure why, but I assume it’s all part of some big strategy to use the latest technology to swamp the opposition.”

    Maybe there just are more Leave supporters out there?

  3. TANCRED

    Kahn. He was good but I think what I didn’t like about Kahn was that he recited a couple of obviously pre-rehearsed speeches and that doesn’t work for me.

    Leadsham. You say “She seemed to me to be a headmistress lecturing children at assembly.” I can understand that, I guess that’s why they have three people, so that different people like different speakers. But for me I like an unflappable style.

  4. Tancred,

    “She seemed to me to be a headmistress lecturing children at assembly…”

    … So she’ll probably be PM for 11 years?

  5. I am interested as to how the political landscape will pan out if Cameron is going to try to revert to Eurosceptic mode post-Remain. He says he will continue pushing for reform including on free movement.

    That will surely involve him having as his key supporters those he has been condemning as fantasists and general up-to-no-goods for the last couple of months. And I am not sure how he can push for reform in free movement having condemned those who are most anxious about immigration.

    In fact, to get his phasing in of benefits, he will need to show:

    -the size of the inflow affects “essential aspects of its social security system”; or
    •leads to serious difficulties in its employment market; or
    •is putting “excessive pressure” on public services.

    So, he will actually have to turn up and say, things are pretty awful due to migration from the EU. That may not be entirely consistent with what he has been saying the campaign.

    Because, and you won’t read this in any of the EU law specialists analysis, it would in no way violate the agreement if the rest of the EU turned round and said, “you’re sounding like Boris Johnson, mate, and we don’t agree with your alarmist claims.”

  6. Tancred, nationalist tend to cyber crazy. The cybernats being the best example. This is why Remain will be confident of the quiet naesayers. Leading up to the Scottish question, indy had a lead but it turned into a loss of 55/45 on the day. Leave don’t even have a lead leading into the poll in one days time.

  7. I’m a Labour party member and I actually loved Leadsham’s style, quietly and reassuringly authoritative and utterly unflappable.

    But that’s personal preference.

    There was only one standing ovation though…

  8. “Leading up to the Scottish question, indy had a lead but it turned into a loss of 55/45 on the day. ”

    I wish people would stop perpetuating this myth. Independence was NEVER in the lead. They led two individual polls three weeks before polling day by a tiny percentage WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR.

    they were never in the lead, and before polling day all the polls showed an anti-independence lead

  9. Sorry, she is Leadsom not Leadsham.

  10. “nationalist tend to cyber crazy. The cybernats being the best example. This is why Remain will be confident of the quiet naesayers”

    The YES campaign won the internet war and the young Scottish voters did actually go for independence. They were just outnumbered by the older voters who are not active on the internet.

    Brexit are doing very well on the internet despite having their hardcore support from the oldies who are not active on social media.

  11. @ DRMIBBLES

    “I wish people would stop perpetuating this myth. Independence was NEVER in the lead. They led two individual polls three weeks before polling day by a tiny percentage WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR.”

    Exactly. This one’s genuinely evenly balanced.

  12. DSL,

    Yes. I never met a ‘shy leaver’. They tell you exactly what they believe at every possible opportunity — often unsolicited!

    I became a ‘shy remainer’ when I was told that if I voted remain, I was personally responsible for a relative’s children not getting their own council house!

    After that I shut up!

    I wonder how many other people have had similar experiences?

  13. In Scotland, polls two months before the ref turned out to be the most accurate. Looking back in time, the polls two months ago suggest a strong Remain victory. Dithering before returning to the original intention. On the economy, you have to be sure the chute will work before you jump out the plane. People vote to some extent with their wallets and I just can’t see the economic case for Leaving having been made, not with all the economists, Treasury, City, Mkts, Orgs saying the opposite.

  14. One prediction I’ll make with confidence. Win or lose, within 12 months Lord Cameron of Witney will be sitting on the red benches.

  15. Very interesting piece I heard about the SNP position in this referendum.

    The SNP are backing remain in Scotland.

    Deep down the SNP want the UK to vote leave.

    If the UK votes leave and Scotland votes remain they believe it will give them a good case for a second referendum.

    It’s a pretty cynical way to play what is after all a very important decision.

    Scots are already used to project fear because they saw it in action during the independence campaign, and apparently are a little jaded by the current round.
    Although many are going to vote to remain, there appears to be a growing number who are supporting the leave campaign, but not letting on, as it’s a ‘vulnerable’ position to take.

  16. “Yes. I never met a ‘shy leaver’.”

    Possibly you do without knowing :)

  17. Anyone read the recent tweet from Lord Sugar?


    [email protected]_Sugar
    I find it strange that Gisela Gschaider a 1974 immigrant from Germany is on the brexit panel telling us British what we should do .”

    So much for Bremain tolerance.

  18. TANCRED
    The TUC lady was weak – they should have had Tim Farron there, not her. Big mistake.

    Correct re the TUC lady but I disagree re Farron. With 2 females on the out side they should have had Lucas instead.

  19. Now is the time for submitting predictions!?

    I came to the following conclusion on Wednesday June 15th. This was when leave seemed to have taken a seven point leave and before the tragic loss of Jo.

    She died for her beliefs.

    My forecast…

    Remain — 53%
    Leave — 47%
    Turnout 77%

    All the best!

    andyo

  20. OldNat – ” I’m keeping an eye on my Twitter timeline – full of pro-indy folk saying how well Ruthie is doing. :-)”

    She’s performed much better than Sturgeon did in the last debate. Couple that with Sturgeon talking today about an independent Scotland joining the euro (!), and these people are ripe to switch across :-)

    I expect Ms Davidson will be First Minister come 2012, and if Remain win, she’s got a shot at being PM if they can find her a seat.

  21. Mactavish: “So much for Bremain tolerance.’

    Given how many Brexiters accuse Merkel, Schauble etc of telling us what to do, it’s quite nice to see the biter bit.

  22. all I will say is this. For all the Labour remain campaigners and left of centre activists who have told me and written it’s too big an economic risk to take to leave, please don’t argue back when I make the same argument in a few years when they are campaigning to put two soclaists in no 10 & no 11. It won’t wash. :-)

  23. @profhoward

    By definition — one would never know!
    :-)

  24. Come Friday, it will be interesting. If Leave do win, the mkts, bookies and polling orgs will all have been wrong – ORB at least. I’d place a bet on Remain but the odds of 1/3 put me off, there’s no value in that market. Andyo, I feel for you! The complainers in life make the most noise; doesn’t mean the rest of the folk agree with them. The cross in the box is a silent, deadly sword indeed.

  25. Thoughtful

    “Deep down the SNP want the UK to vote leave.”

    You do hear some silly things!

    So what insider knowledge does your source have about the inner workings of the “SNP mind”?

  26. @Thoughtful

    “If the UK votes leave and Scotland votes remain they believe it will give them a good case for a second referendum.”

    It’s not that simple, polls show Scotland would opt to remain even if Brexit happened. The SNP won’t call another referendum until they’re certain they’d win, as losing two in a row would kill it completely.

    Of course two years into the Infinite Reign of Boris Johnson, overseeing Venezuelan style economic collapse, the slogan ‘let’s get the f*** out of here’ might carry a fair bit of weight.

  27. @PROFHOWARD

    Leadsham was certainly unflappable but repeating the ‘take back control’ mantra seemed unnecessary – it seemed a Buddhist prayer rather than a political statement. Anyway, each to his own.

    I take your point on some rehearsed speaking, but that is not necessarily a bad thing, many politicians do it. What matters is getting your message across and he was quite effective.

  28. @SOMERJOHN

    FYI, Gisela Gschaider is a British citizen elected by the British voters into the UK parliament. She has every right to voice her opinions about the running of the UK. That comment by Sugar is an absolute disgrace.

  29. Thoughtful

    Having seen Candy’s usual ignorance about Scotland displayed above, I do hope she wasn’t your source! :-)

  30. @Candy

    “I expect Ms Davidson will be First Minister come 2012”

    Davidson has invented a time machine!? She’s wasted in politics

  31. @Old Nat

    Well it was the BBC so I am always a little on the wary side with their track record!

    It’s an interesting analysis & I thought it was worth posting.

    Not my analysis I hasten to add!

  32. @Anarchists Unite – should be 2021 of course, I reversed the numbers.

    @OldNat

    Care to enlighten us about how excited Scots are about Sturgeon’s plans for joining the euro? :-)

  33. looks like that twitter poll wasn’t quite so unrepresentative after all

    On which side won the #BBCDebate:
    Leave: 39%
    Remain: 34%
    (via YouGov, online / 21 Jun, post debate)

  34. @MACTAVISH

    “FYI, Gisela Gschaider is a British citizen elected by the British voters into the UK parliament. She has every right to voice her opinions about the running of the UK. That comment by Sugar is an absolute disgrace.”

    I agree 100%. She has been here since 1974 and that is a very long time. If she was of West Indian or Indian descent this would considered open racism.

  35. YouGov found that Leave won the debate
    Worryingly for Remain, YouGov also found the don’t knows breaking for Leave

  36. @DRMIBBLES

    Snap online polls are not representative – pretty obvious isn’t it?

  37. THOUGHTFUL
    If the UK votes leave and Scotland votes remain they believe it will give them a good case for a second referendum.

    It would also leave the possibility of England doing a Greenland and Scotland taking over the UK seat in the EU. If the outers prevail then that could be a very useful option to keep services access.

    It’s a pretty cynical way to play what is after all a very important decision.

    Hardly, given that the SNP have been pro-EU for at more than a decade and the question of whether an independent Scotland would be allowed into the EU undoubtedly cost them many votes in 2014.

  38. Dr Mibbles,

    You are correct, the last ten polls before the Scottish referendum had staying in the Union ahead by ~2% on average.

    What you do not mention is that in the privacy of the polling booth the Scots voted Remain by 10.6%! So that was an 8.6% swing to status quo..

    I am not at all confident that will occur on Thursday, but if it does the Remain camp can relax!

  39. Tomorrow’s Record (and presumably other papers too) is carrying a joint statement by all 5 Holyrood party leaders in support of Remain.

  40. @DSL

    If you look at opinion polls going back several years:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

    Leave were solidly in the lead in 2010, 2011, 2012, and most of 2013. Remain getting leads is a more recent phenomenon, and they are going to have to overcome deep seated dislike of the EU.

  41. @ANARCHIST’S UNITE

    Indeed. Make no mistake, if there is Brexit there will Brit-breakup. The flag waving leave fanatics seem to ignore this likelihood in their crusade.

  42. “are to enlighten us about how excited Scots are about Sturgeon’s plans for joining the euro? :-)”

    ———–

    Lol, this should be good…

  43. I think the move to the status quo is over rated because a Remain vote is not the status quo, Leave has made the Remain vote about immigration. So your choice is ‘economic collapse’ v ‘swamped by Turkish immigrants’. Both campaigns have been in effect Project Fears

    On the debate it seemed to me that Remain were grandstanding while Leave focused on the folk at home. I rather liked Boris’s speech at the end…’Independence day’

    If Leave do win it will be a lesson for the next Scottish independence referendum, the Yes side will have to run their own project fear.

    Prediction is almost impossible because I don’t trust the polls after GE 15, and in any case polls too close to call. So I will go for….

    Leave 55 Remain 45

    1. Social media about 55/45 Leave
    2. Oldies will vote and they are strongly Leave
    3. Shy Leavers
    4. Fear of immigration trumping economic arguments

    Turnout Eng 60% Sco 55%

  44. @oldnat

    For what it’s worth old chap. If UK votes leave, and Scotland votes remain I would back any SNP call to have a second independence referendum!

    If the fine people of Scotland vote for independence — am I allowed (as a Brit) to reside in your fair, new country!
    It will be tragic to see England’s economy evaporate to one the size of a minor developing country.

    Sorry to stray so far from polling AW, but at least I HAVE talked about earlier tonight!

  45. I’m calling it 56/44. I think the Don’t knows will swing big time towards remain. I reckon turnout to be around 66%. I think confusion around the issue will mean that a lot of people who aren’t given a third option on the paper will not vote rather than turn up and spoil their paper in protest. This will affect turnout, so it won’t be +70 as much vaunted by the press.

  46. @CANDY

    Actually, opinions are all over the place. Polls are one thing but when push comes to shove we’ll have to see.

    If leave do win then there will be a sea of pain to navigate even to reach the exit door from the EU. It will be brutal to witness.

  47. Candy

    There are no “plans” to join the euro. If you knew anything about Scottish politics, you would know that.

  48. @MacTavish

    Quite, if Lord Sugar cannot accept that an immigrant can be properly British, then that is a very bad thing.

    So is using her German maiden name to emphasise foreignness.

    I always think it is a very bad thing when some refuse to accept the idea that a migrant could become British. I am against present levels of immigration. But you really have to open to treating newcomers as future compatriots or any level of immigration will turn out badly.

    The sentiments in the tweet you quote(“@Lord_Sugar
    I find it strange that Gisela Gschaider a 1974 immigrant from Germany is on the brexit panel telling us British what we should do ”) would count as racism normally. But I doubt if the Guardian will call him on it. A different context, and that sort of thing would be the end of the Apprentice on TV.

  49. Lord Sugar may have swung it for some.

  50. Ok has anyone resolved the disagreement between the Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe

    and the Telegraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

    about Friday morning? Guardian says Sunderland will announce their local result at 12.30 am

    Telegraph says we have to wait for regional results at 4am at the earliest

    Now you know this is a life-changing issue! I am certainly not going to stay up till 4 am watching Dimbleby talk endlessly to some superannuated political hacks about nothing. But 12.30 am, that is more like it!

    Manchester Evening News tonight suggests the Guardian is correct

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/when-european-referendum-result-announced-11506125

    ( I see they back remain, so any undecided voters please click on the link! I do not think there are any left here however!)

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