Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. Shy Leave, I think, is very common.

    People used to be shy Tory did they not?

    I reckon anyway

  2. @PAF

    I think you’re right. Personally I’ve disliked almost every minute of this campaign and would be very happy to not have anything like it again for a long time.

  3. @Neil A, down the pub the dominant voices are Brexit, shock horror. But there quiet Remain people who don’t say much.

  4. @neil,

    I rarely do Facebook politics, but put a note out similar to your suggestion and for the same reasons! As the GE taught us, social media is not representative of the wider vote at all. It’s got a high proportion of aggressive and sometimes rather nasty far left advocates. Some stuff I see from one Facebook ‘friend’ is plain unbelievable. Ha I said that he works for the council so they are probably right behind it, lol

  5. Reasons to think Leave VI higher than polling headlines;

    – Downward adjustment in online polls too harsh (4-5 points)
    – Shy Leavers (some good evidence already exists these exist)
    – Fundamental VI drivers don’t favour Remain, vast majority (74%) don’t think they’ll be worse off outside the EU, so there is no fear of consequence, while fear of increased migration is much higher
    – As a result of above, zero swingback
    – Polls massively over-stating turnout among under-30’s, 80% is frankly ridiculous and is not going to happen

  6. Microsoft’s Bing Predicts is also doing a Big Data prediction based on search queries on Bing:

    http://blogs.bing.com/uk/June-2016/Bing-predicts-EU-Vote

    Unfortunately I can’t get it to work (you are supposed to go to Bing.com and type in EU referendum).

    However, as per the blog post above, on 13th June, they were predicting 55.44% remain and 44.56% leave

  7. Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as “interesting”

    I know there always going to say that and Im sure its going to be very unintresting and be very close either way. But I will punt for a leave lead or it could meaning a growing remain lead

    There last poll was a 1% remain lead

  8. TANCRED

    Reason for difference between online and telephone poll maybe that shy Leavers tend more to lie/ deny their position or to state a neutral position being part of the “dont know/ undecided”-column. I guess some people privately agree with UkIPs main talking point but refuse to adhere to a cause in public or telling it to an unknown person via telephone.

  9. ComRes usually have a 4 day collection period so won’t tell us much about the current state of play, i.e. post Jo Cox out of the news cycle…is there a final YouGov tomorrow?

  10. DRMIBBLES

    80% sounds high but hasn’t Remain managed to convert the turnout dynamic into a civic activism and future of youth debate?

    The large number of undecideds at this point in the campaign doesn’t favour Leave if undecideds are more likely to break in favour of the status quo. That said, there have been some suggestions that when forced, undecideds have broken towards Leave.

    The financial fortune/risk matrix is interesting. Could this play to Leave’s advantage in terms of a brave protest vote? Johnson is many things but a fool is not one of them. The Independence Day tagline has been today’s buzzword and has clearly caught the public imagination in terms of working class and lower middle class Englishness.

    My gut feeling is 6% to 8% in favour of Remain.

    It’s hard to sample the mood though – much harder than in GE 2015. Maybe this phenomenon by itself suggests greater support for Remain than the polls are indicating?

  11. I tend to discount online polls as they only poll among the self selected subsample of rheir panel members. There may be an argument for their use in VI polls where the sample can be benchmarked against actual historic election outcomes. In a one off election with no equivalent benchmark the adjustments have to be lirtle more than guesswork.

  12. Not buying the shy leaver idea. Those I see on my social media are not shy, and if anything wanting to brag about their patriotism. Doubtless if you lived where I do you’d be shy about remain, and if you live in Castle Point you might be shy about being Remain. But for me that’s not holding in relation to posting opinions or expressing them. For the same reason also not buying shy remain. For good and mostly bad I think people have been taking great pride in why they vote the way they do. So if the polls aren’t right it’s the samples I’d suggest.

  13. @NEIL A

    “because my employer has issued strict instructions that we aren’t to comment on the election campaign.”

    You don’t work for the BBC do you ?

  14. I would have thought that there may be more shy remainers than shy leavers. And here’s why, leavers are louder and dominate conversations down the pub and online. This was the case in Sco ref where cybernats owned online. I’ve only started seeing Remain posters come out in the last couple of days. Up to then, it was all Leave posters. Once more emphasising the loudness of Leave. But there may be some shy leave, I’m not saying there aren’t, after all, who’d want to be associated with Nigel’s posters? lol

  15. I still can not understand why the markets and the bookies or at least the punters are so sure of a remain. Betfair has it at 76% remain, 24% leave. Not even the more enthusiastic Remainers appear that confident.

    Do they know something we don’t?

  16. Gareth
    Sorry I think you’ve missed the reading of the most recent data. This is close but definitely leaning towards LEAVE.

  17. @Candy

    Bing!?!?

    The worst search engine in history? Christ alive, I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole! (No pun intended)

    The repetitive ‘Leave must be under rep’d in the polling’ from Leavers on here is getting dull. There will be just as many shy Remainers as shy Leavers. Just think about being a Remainer in Clacton for example – which is what my PA is. She would never dare tell anyone and indeed said she even felt embarrassed saying at work, which is overwhelmingly Remain.

    The Leave/Remain divide is not a left/right, rich/poor or conservative/liberal divide. So all the paradigms we are used to are largely inapplicable. At best it is young/old, and we don’t know how that is going to break.

  18. In Robert Peston speak what does interesting mean in relation to the Comres poll?

  19. 1% here 1% there?
    My wife’s on the Internet tonight with her doggie friends group -over 70 so far intimated their VI. 90% Brexit. Mostly women of differing ages.
     Good luck with your guesses – you need it.

  20. @TheMonk

    I agree. I think the pollsters really have NFI.

    @EOTW

    Betting odds are just a reflection of where the weight of their book is. So it just says the money is being weighted to Remain by punters. The bookies don’t ‘know’ much beyond what they need to do to make money or avoid losing it. It is interesting for sure that that is where the money is but not sure there is a wider significance.

  21. @The Last Fandango

    Bing got the Scottish referendum right (at no point was Yes ahead in their prediction).

    If they’re pulling in a few million searches a day and combining that with the feed from social media, that’s a pretty big data set to base a prediction off.

    As I said, I can’t get the thing to work to find out what their prediction is as of today – but they’re been right before and have been right on the US primaries as well.

  22. @Bantams

    It means ‘watch News at 10 cos I want to boost the viewing numbers’

    Nowt more than that

    If he had said ‘sensational’ I might be more excited

    Interesting – I’d say it means dead heat

  23. I’d like to know what kind of figures from ComRes would constitute an “uninteresting” poll.

  24. Anyone watching that crashing bore Jeremy Paxman on C4? How is the last debate going?

  25. The “debate” is genuinely awful. Can’t thnk of anything else to say

  26. Thanks Candy. Close to my own predo of 56/44. Interesting that they got the Sco Ref right, did they call the GE correct as well?

  27. @THE MONK

    Paxman is such a pompous git. I can’t stand him.

    Are we expecting any more polls tonight?

  28. Finally we have Google Trends:

    https://www.google.co.uk/trends/story/GB_cu_EoBj9FIBAAAj9M_en

    They’ve compiled a whole bunch of graphs – search interest for Leave is way higher than for Remain. People have been asking them things like “is Russia in the EU” :-) They’ve also got their own brexit map showing which parts of the country appear to be searching for more brexity things. They’re also tracking all the politicians.

    It looks very Brexity to me.

  29. @DSL

    Bing didn’t do the GE. Also note that the figure I posted above is the one they gave for 13th June. I can’t get it to work for today, so no idea what the current prediction is.

  30. Truly terrible debate on ch4. Paxman couldn’t control it. Remainers just felt free to talk over leavers and Sandie Shaw threw a strop. Total waste of time.

  31. @Robert Newark

    Yes – that has to be one of the worst debates I have ever seen, terribly controlled by Paxman who even made some horribly clumsy ‘jokey’ digs at Nigel Lawson and Sheila Hancock (who was excellent)’s expense.

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