Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. Iceland score at the last gasp so England avoid Portugal in the last 16!

  2. The Last Fandango

    “We have concluded a deal with the prime minister, he got the maximum he could receive, we gave the maximum we could give.
    That looks pretty definitive to me, If better terms were available Cameron would have been given them in order to avoid a Brexit. I think you are clutching at straws

  3. If one believes online polls it’s neck and neck, Remain slightly ahead in phone polls. The DNs will decide this. If they split as ORB predict, Remains wins.

  4. @ Old Nat

    At least you can watch the next Iceland match!

  5. FT poll of polls is tied 44-44. Implies 12%DNs. Is this a higher % than on the eve of the Scottisf Ref?

    I am standing by my Quebec 95 comparison, high turnout (at a guess 73%) with Remain winning by a margin of less than 2%. Politically that is a pretty horrific outcome. The Tory party will be paralysed by civil war. Labour won’t have a clue how to respond. Cameron will be a dead duck PM. EU membership will still be in question and UK will be viewed as an unreliable partner in the EU. 2nd referendum entirely possible. Complete mess basically.

  6. @Roy

    He was asked s question about happens if we Brexit and that’s it. Not about other situations that may or may not happen. If you can’t read plain English then I can’t help you.

  7. Superb match between Portugal and Hungary and Iceland v Austria.

    OLDNAT…

    If you pressed the red button then you could had watched the Iceland match. I had my small portable tv in the lounge along with my main tv and watched both..

  8. Shevii

    That’s true! :-)

    I’ll still keep an eye on the Norse gods’ commentary, though.

  9. @Roy, DC did get the max he could at the time. But that max will shift when the traditional parties in Europe are trounced by the unrest within the Euro people about immigration, jobs and wage levels. European politics is more fluid than in Britain owing not least to PR. We have seen new parties rise and take power in countries like Greece. This will happen in the bigger nations as well. Reform will then be possible.

  10. @Roy @Last Fandango

    I am not sure why Cameron raised the issue of further reform. Nor why Junker intervened. Maybe Cameron thought it was good to try to tell wavering sceptics that the vote is for “remain” and nothing else – and did not think there was enough time for anything to be said in reply. Maybe Junker’s real audience are the Italians and the Dutch and others – he wants to warn them off.

    Obviously, Junker isn’t worried about Cameron’s negotiating skills.

    The EU has serious worries from the Italians right now.

  11. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Now, you tell me!

    I’ve avoided pressing the red button, because I didn’t want to launch those bloody Trident missiles.

  12. @Mr Dribbles

    That poll was a Survation.

    Howvever, it wasn’t conspiracy. Survation used their standard methodology, and produced what looked like an outlier. No other Survation poll looked like that.

    If you apply a standard methodology, and get one real weird result compared to every other poll you have done, it is reasonable to consider it an outlier.

  13. I have to say watching DC walking into a local school with screaming kids is like watching my ol pal the Dear Leader of North Korea walking into a state owned potato farm with carefully selected over-exuberant cheering farm workers.

    Not impressed…

  14. OLDNAT

    Sorry I should had said about the red bottom before knocking off to watch the match earlier on.
    ………

    “I’ve avoided pressing the red button, because I didn’t want to launch those bloody Trident missiles.”
    _____
    Ha! make sure Mrs OLDNAT keeps hold of the remote. ;-)

  15. Nigel Farage has pulled out of tonight’s debate on Channel 4 citing ‘family reasons’.

  16. Finally got some relatively reliable intel on a postal vote opening, from a district in the home counties. Reported to me by a Remainer depressed that it seemed to be 45-55 for Leave. However on the district guide someone has put together – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/edit#gid=881507152 – for that district it would be absolutely spot on to implying a 50-50 race. And if as some suggest postal votes should be better for leave than remain, would imply a small remain win.

    But can’t be taken any more seriously than any other fairly well sourced gossip.

  17. If Nige isn’t in the debate, ‘Leave’ must be delighted.

  18. ASSIDUOSITY
    @Allan Christie
    “What I will predict is that whoever wins will win by at least 7%. There is no way this vote is as close as the polls are suggesting when there are so many Don’t Knows lurking about.”
    …….
    “We seem to be enjoying a degree of consensus today”

    “I’m with you. I think this is in the lap of those certain to vote DKs. I’m also inclined to believe the result will be more decisive than currently seems the case.”

    “Having said that memories of the Welsh devolution referendum of 1997 – Yes 50.3%, No 49.7%, do come to mind…”
    ______

    Good point I hadn’t thought about the Welsh referendum result but I still think the actual EU result will be a surprising lead for the winning side.

  19. @Candy

    Thanks for the top off on the big data tool.

    Quite fun to look at different time frames. I note their analysis has had it pretty much neck and neck throughout.

    Very different analysis from the other tool – as per my earlier point it would be fascinating to see whether it is different source data or methodology that results in markedly different outcomes.

    One word of caution – I did notice when looking at the nifty graphics that aim to display the attitudes in other EU countries to Brexit that the data wasn’t that big at all – reliant on fewer than 1,000 posts to tell me that the Italians find the whole thing highly amusing!

  20. After this referendum is over and all the dust has settled, there are going to be some very interesting polls.

    Leader satisfaction ratings

    State of the parties

    Concerns poll

    I am very curious to see if any of the previous have changed as a result of the referendum campaigning.

  21. @Dave84

    Depending on which district in which home county that is (a London-centric commuter town in Herts vs a sleepy rural area) I imagine Remain might be quietly content with only trailing by 10% on the postals.

    But as I say it really does depend on the demographic of the particular district, unless you’re talking.

    Still, as you say, it’s little more than gossip at this stage.

  22. The 1995 Quebec referendum is an interesting analogy. The pro-independence group was well in the lead for a long time, with the polls only narrowing right at the end and the ‘remain’ group winning by a hair’s breadth. The French speakers blamed foreign immigrants and Inuits for affecting the vote, though I doubt that this made as big a difference as all that.
    I wonder what the ‘leave’ camp will say if they lose narrowly. They will probably blame naturalised EU immigrants, knowing them. There will be a lot of sour grapes for Boris to feast on, that’s for sure.

  23. Knocking off for the footy again… Italy v Ireland…Would love to see Ireland progress but will be supporting my mammy’s country of birth Italy.

    For the benefit of OLDNAT..If you want to watch Sweden V Belgium then it’s being shown on ITV4.

  24. RICHARD (threads ago but not really answered)

    Why are polls weighted to demographics, and not to who actually votes?
    You can see here turnout of the 65+yrs old was 78/79% at the general election, vs 42/43% for the 18-24’s.
    So how is this reflected in the weighting that happens to polls, as my understanding is that they are weighted to population targets, amongst others, but if certain demographics do not typically vote, how is that adjusted for?

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

    The trouble is that, as MORI admit in that piece, there is no objective way of knowing what the facts are. The exit poll doesn’t obtain demographic data (why? US ones do for example), though even then you would have to adjust for those who refused to take part and for those who cast their vote by post. So there’s no way to know exactly how much the old vote more than the young or if men are more likely to vote than women or just to say that they will.

    MORI admit that their figures are based on their polling, but say that “the voting intention figures are weighted to the final actual results and turnout at a regional level”. But that doesn’t really help correct the demographics because there’s nothing to correct to.

    The best we may have is the detail from surveys such as the British Election Study (face to face) and (to a less extent) the British Social Attitude surveys over the years. But even these may not get near to the truth because they only get about 56% participation and don’t get everything right – both underestimated the UKIP vote by quite a bit for example. And 76% of those that could be verified by the BES had voted – compared to actual turnout of 66%. So they may well be untypical in other ways.

    In terms of weighting pollsters allow for demographic differences in two ways. Firstly they use likelihood to vote questions and exclude and/or weight the results of voting intention questions accordingly. Secondly many of them then apply other calculations based for example on whether someone says they voted in previous elections or their age or class.

    But there are problems with all this as well. For example we know certain groups are less likely to say they will vote (the young, women, ethnic minorities, manual workers) but we don’t know how this translates into reality. So the more modest might have their preferences downgraded while in reality still taking part. And again because there’s nothing reliable to measure against

    You can also bias against the young or those otherwise newly qualified to vote because they couldn’t rather than wouldn’t vote in the past. There’s also the problem that voting patterns may shift over time or by events or by technical changes in things such as registration. And again no reliable data to calibrate against.

    All this means that pollsters start with the demographics (though even those may be contested) and then change things as they go along. But there’s no guarantee that they will change things in the right direction and, like generals, they may end up fighting the last war not the next.

  25. @Tancred
    I think Quebec is highly instructive and have said so for a while.

  26. @ Thoughtful

    Many – though not all – of the referendum polls have included VI and, more rarely, leader satisfaction.

    IpsosMORI published some results on leadership today.

    No huge changes, Cameron and Corbyn are battling it out for the biggest net negative score. -23% and -25% respectively.

    Nigel Farage has the lowest net negative. No leader of a UK party is in positive territory.

    Party VI is largely unchanged since before the campaign on most measures. Well within MoE.

    Of course, the big changes may well come after the result.

  27. Another batch of poor ratings for the EU debate then. I’d say based on this alone Remain are going to do well. People would be watching just to see how both sides fare. They weren’t.

    Remain should win solidly and I expect it’ll be clear early Thursday night.

  28. Bottom line is that online polls have tended to favour leave and phone polls remain. What that means I don’t have a clue. But it’s wrong to think that this will be anything but very close – polls cannot be that wrong!

  29. Just to add to the mix…Lord Ashcroft [email protected] 18m18 minutes ago
    Sky News poll of polls Leave 45% Remain 44%

    Right back to the footy.

  30. Quebec is no more instructive and the Scottish referendum. The historical and emotional ties to Canada and the lack of fear generated by the status quo (i.e. EU migration) mean it’s completely different

    Those expecting a swing to status quo tomorrow are probably going to be disappointed. Opinium said today there is no evidence of it occurring at all in their data up to and including today.

  31. Tancred John Curtis suggested that research found that online polls are biased, as the outers are more inspired to participate. This makes sense to me. I believe the phone polls giving a tiny lead to Stay but the DKs, how will they split?

  32. ASSIDUOSITY

    District was a mixed commuter / working kind of place. Reason I gave the story more credence than I usually do for random gossip is that the Remainer was gloomy and thought that kind of leave lead meant Leave to win overall.

    ROGER MEXICO think the Curtice study a week or so ago giving a big Remain lead included turnout adjusted to how the social group actually vote rather than how people say they’re going to vote. Problem being of course that we have no idea if past performance is a guide to tomorrow. Though many of us are very sceptical about those who say they are 10/10 to vote, as the number who say that normally exceed the total turnout.

  33. @dave84, plenty of brickies and sparkies will be saying down the pub they want to leave and when they’re on the job tomorrow it may well be, can’t be bothered, nothing will change for us.

  34. Research has shown conclusively that;

    – People respond to phone polls in a more socially liberal manner
    – People respond to online polls in a more socially conservative manner
    – People respond to face-to-face polling somewhere between the two

    The pollsters are making adjustments to their online polls to account for the above, basically reducing Leave VI by 4-5 points. However they are not doing the same to their phone polls, as far as I can tell.

    I am now convinced that the polling average is underestimating the Leave lead because of this.

  35. I haven’t the faintest idea which side will win.

  36. RICH

    “I spoke to a few people today at the post office and sandwich shop here in the West Midlands. Everybody was leave, without exception.”

    Anecdotal evidence, though still evidence, not very robust evidence. It probably tells us more about the company we keep. I know of only two people voting “leave” – a Christian fundamentalist and a rabid ukipper – I doubt that is much reflection of actual vote, though.
    If we do vote to leave and if – as I strongly suspect – we will be in the midst of grade A economic and financial mess, I wonder who the post office and sandwich queue will be blaming for the mess? Not themselves, of course. I hope legendary British common sense will kick in but I wouldn’t bet on it – Brits as much as anyone else capable of “cutting off nose to spite ones face”.

  37. @Fraser
    I admire you for having the courage to make a firm prediction – but – what makes you expect an easy Remain win? And of course you mean by Friday morning I assume, unless you expect a couple of results to give you the answer?

  38. Sorry Drmibbles but speaking as a Canadian citizen that’s a significant misunderstanding of the Quebec situation!

  39. Anyone know what happens if both remain and leave get exactly same number of votes? I predict it be so close that a recount done.

  40. Tancred
    I have actually studied the 95 Quebec referendum extensively and the consensus is that there was “some” truth to the comment about immigrants and Inuit’s.

    The Inuit part is stupid since despite being pretty overwhelmingly No voters they were a tiny proportion of the electorate (although given how close the result they did actually sway it for No) but frankly they had as much right to vote as anybody.

    Also it has to be said that the Yes vote in some French speaking areas was not as high as expected. Huge debate over why but ultimately the blame for why so many French speakers (the Bloc Quebecois natural constituency) opted to vote No can only be landed on the pro Indy groups shoulders.

    Finally though the immigrant point. Immigrants (especially BME voters) were primarily English speakers and overwhelmingly voted No. Indeed look at a map of the results and its clear No only carried the day due to the truly huge No votes in Southern and Central Montreal where the bulk of residents are either English speaking Canadians or immigrants. If Montreal were removed from the equation Yes would have won by a landslide.

  41. Mibbles, that’s because polling companies believe phone polls to be accurate. They don’t have the same confidence in online polls and research has shown that online polls are less accurate, they overstate the chance of brexit. Online polls contain a lot of meaningless protest votes.

  42. Not commented for some time but glad to be back; the last few weeks have reignited my curiosity as to what the polls tell us, so have been reading more of the comments recently. I have to say I’ve been disappointed that the “house rules” appear to have slipped and there have been too many personalised comments (perhaps not surprising given how the campaigns have been run). Hopefully, normal service will be resumed after tomorrow.

    For what it’s worth, I think there are too many unknowns for the polls to be relied upon and so we can’t predict the result. Nonetheless here’s my prediction:

    England, Wales and Northern Ireland will stay in Europe, but only Wales’ result will be clear. Scotland will want to stay, but their mind will be on the next tournament. (Lower turn out but strong Remain).

    No science in this at all. Just my view that the prophetic power of football is as good a predictive tool as any in these circumstances.

  43. The last few polls seem to confirm a 1% leave lead. To me this is well within the margin of error. It’s pointless speculating any further – the truth will emerge tomorrow.

  44. John Curtice and Stephen Fisher describe how they have prepared the analysis for BBC’s referendum results programme.

    https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/22/how-the-bbc-will-be-benchmarking-the-results-on-eu-referendum-night/

    As always, I’ll be looking after the grandkids on Friday, so I’ll find out in the morning!

  45. @assiduosity,

    Sorry a belated reply. The most interesting one was the lady behind the counter at the post office. I asked her if she was voting, she said ‘yes’, I said which way (I go in a few times a week so know her by face but not well), before she answered me, she went quite coy and asked how I was voting first, I said leave, then this really opened her up for a massive confirmation of her leave vote. I am seriously now sensing a potential shy leave vote. I know it’s anecdotal and based on one conversation, but there you go.

    richo

  46. OLDNAT…….I’ve narrowed it down to Brexit or Remain, in the event of a draw, I suggest penalties, 6 for each team. Ruth to open for remain…….! ;-)

  47. @Drmibbles

    How have you decided which of Remain or Leave is the socially liberal or the socially conservative option? Whether it is the liberal or conservative option is entirely context dependent. It isn’t like, say, attitudes to the death penalty.

    Your convinced Leavr is understated because you seem to want that to be the case rather than because you have actually proved it with polling theory.

  48. Ken

    “I’ve narrowed it down to Brexit or Remain”

    You mad optimist you! :-)

  49. Sorry if this repeats what I said in another thread, but as several people have referenced it here, and as someone who voted in the Québec 1995 referendum (dual national), I think the possibly relevant point is that the whole experience was so horrible, and Premier Parizeau’s concession speech so bitter, that no one has wanted to go through it again; and the mere whiff of a possible rerun during the last provincial election was enough to send the nationalist Parti Québécois crashing to their worst defeat in 40 years.

    If there is a narrow Remain victory there will be a few zealots wanting a rematch, but will the electorate in general really want it, or just see them as bad losers?

  50. I haven’t said anything about the referendum on Facebook, because my employer has issued strict instructions that we aren’t to comment on the election campaign.

    I had been thinking about putting a message up at 10pm tomorrow saying I’d voted Leave and explaining why, and why this didn’t mean I was a racist. Just as a sort of counterpoint to the overwhelming torrent of anti-Brexiteer comments that my “friends” spew out.

    My wife literally begged me not to, so worried is she about losing friends due to our Leave vote.

    So, yes, Shy Leave may well be a thing, at least in Internetland.

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