Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. @Tancred.

    Yup I think you have it right. Remain win by between 1-3% margin, although my track record isn’t great. At the height of the coalition’s troubles, when UKPR was awash with predictions of a Miliband victory, I remember stating that any outcome in 2015 was still possible, short of a Tory overall majority. So what do I know?!

  2. John Major seemed tired and emotional today.

    Boris sounded Bullish.

    Corbyn seemed quiet.

    Junker tried to help Cameron, possibly.

    New Statesman man seems to think that Labour vote is going away to Boris; outside the London areas.

  3. Anyone ever heard of ‘Global Traders Association’ ?

    They have produced some polling which does not agree with the UK polling:

    http://www.tradersadvocate.com/pages/orphan_pages/ExclusiveBrexitPollTurnoutVsUndecided#.V2q_vRH6vb1

    Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?
    Leaving 78%
    Staying 22%

    Although expectations remain elevated, this is the lowest reading since the first week of our tracking poll in early March.

    Who do you plan to vote for?
    Leaving 97%
    Staying 3%

    Have you changed your mind over which side you will vote for?
    Yes 2%
    No 98%

  4. NEIL WILSON

    As I said. It is 88%. That frees up slots for higher-paid workers from the rest of the world.

    But there are no ‘slots’ – people either fit the criteria or they don’t (and even then you may be undercutting rates for local skilled workers). And all the other problems that immigration can cause won’t be made any better by replacing one set of immigrants by another.

    There are all sorts of other complications as well. Non-EU migrants may have higher ‘overheads’ in the long-term – larger families say or a need to bring dependent parents over. And with skilled worker visas there is a tendency for those to be used to slip in workers who quickly move to less skilled occupations.

  5. @Candy

    “http://sense-eu.info/
    They have Leave 51% Stay 49%”

    A wry smile that the development of this tool was funded by… the European Union.

    More seriously, looking at the data sources for this analysis, it seems to rely quite heavily on BTL comments in the main stream media to supplement person to person social media content.

    I’m not saying this is necessarily less accurate – some here would contend the contrary – but it is a noticeable trend that most BTL forums of this kind do seem to be significantly more pre-Brexit than the professional polls indicate for the population as a whole. I’m using the sites’ own occasional self-selecting participant polls as a rough measure here, so hardly scientific.

    It would interesting to know how this compares with the data sources for the other outfit, but they don’t seem to be transparent, unless I’ve missed something.

  6. So once again, like most occasions, the vote is in the hands of those who haven’t got a clue and can’t make up their minds. Democracy; lovely!

    How will the Don’t knows split when they vote (those that do, many won’t).

  7. All the youngsters in my close family and there are around 25 aged 19-30 are voting and voting to remain much to my fathers annoyance!!

    Junkers can say what he wants because whatever happens tomorow Leave will have a large vote and their views and others in Europe of a similar disposition will simply be unable to be ignored – it is my opinion that this referendum will significantly change the future of the EU direction and that is speaking from the remain perspective.

  8. Neil Wilson: “As I said. It is 88%. That frees up slots for higher-paid workers from the rest of the world.”

    OK, you’re saying the target is an 88% reduction, on the basis that 88% of current EU workers in the UK earn less than £20k, and thus wouldn’t qualify for a work permit.

    This ignores those non-workers who would be admitted, as dependents and students.

    But the point I was making was about a net return of UK citizens from rEU. I don’t suppose statistics exist as to the proportion of UK movers to other EU countries who would fail to meet that requirement of a £21k graduate-level job, but I don’t see any reason why it would be any lower. So if you anticipate an 88% reduction in EU migration to the UK, why would the same controls not produce an 88% reduction in UK emigration to the EU?

    As to your suggestion that a drop in EU migration would facilitate an increase in migration from elsewhere, that’s very interesting but not, I suspect, what most Leave supporters believe they’re voting for.

  9. I think if you believe the polls then Remain will win – bearing in mind particularly the extra tweaks done by ORB and BMG which they said they wanted to be judged on, and the conventional wisdom on risk and reversion to status quo which said leave had to be 5 ahead at this point.

    Can’t say I’m convinced by that and looking at the district breakdowns some have prepared I’m not convinced I can see enough Remain voters.

  10. @Dave84

    “Can’t say I’m convinced by that and looking at the district breakdowns some have prepared I’m not convinced I can see enough Remain voters.”

    Which ‘district breakdowns’ would these be? Care to share?

  11. TNS poll 43% leave -4 41% remain +1

  12. ChrisLane45

    Will the Blairite prescription be to become Eurosceptic to bring the Labour voters back into the fold? Or find some sort of triangulation between internationalism and parochialism?

    I only say this half in jest. The EU is a proxy for a lot of other voter concerns which will not change whichever way we vote tomorrow. This going to go on and on and on.

  13. Those with jobs, rent, mortgages will do what they need to tomorrow. There’s precious little job security or wage rises and we’re not out of the economic turmoil yet, so no-one needs more grief. It may not be ideal but folk need solid income. A convincing case has not been made by Leave, if it had the polls wouldn’t be so close and the DNs wouldn’t be so large. When a convincing case has not been made the DNs are wise to stick with the status quo. If a convincing case had been made to leave the polls would look very different.

  14. @Thoughtful

    “Anyone ever heard of ‘Global Traders Association’ ?”

    After about 5 minutes research I managed to deduce that they are are limited liability company operating out of NYC that claims to be a professional body, but actually uses this as a means for capturing personal contact details for ‘members’ in order that they can market their FOREX and other trading tools direct to personal investors.

    This is a two part ‘poll’. Part one wisdom poll, part two VI.

    To put it bluntly: it’s totally worthless.

    + We don’t know what community or demographic the participants represent
    + Where the participants are located
    + If they are eligible to vote in the UK or the referendum
    + What the actual questions were
    + If there were any questions, proper calculations or indeed actual participants

    Now, to an extent all opinion polls rely on the goodwill and honesty of respondents, but there are reasonable measures in place to support this. There’s nothing comparable here.

    At best this is a sales outfit sending out a survey to its mailing list and then regurgitating the responses as ‘a poll’ to make it look like it’s providing members with ‘free content’.

    At worst, it’s just made up.

    Either way it tells you nothing about the likely result of the referendum.

  15. On an anecdotal level, the level of political consciousness in London in last week has grown exponentially. Way beyond a General Election. Officisl pisters, leaflets etc as well as home made, hand made etc.Overwhelmingly pre Remain, indeed Leave hardly to be seen except in certain pockets. But only 5 million voters in London. Much may depend on how this ripples out via the c. 2 million who commute into London but don’t live there and there family members.

    3 goals in 9 mins in Port v Hungary!?!?

  16. Britain Elects [email protected] 5m5 minutes ago

    Using methodology applied to the previous TNS poll (likely voters) gives Leave a 7pt lead. New methodology (and all voters) Leave lead by 2.

  17. Alec

    Approval of the Scotland-Norway electricity interconnector looks good to me.

    http://stv.tv/news/north/1358306-green-light-for-400-mile-cable-linking-scotland-and-norway/

    However, this is your area of expertise. Any views?

  18. TNS poll had a significant methodology change.

    Under old methodology (likely voters);

    Leave: 49% (+2)
    Remain: 43% (+3)

    Under new methodology (all voters);

    Leave: 43%
    Remain: 41%

    Draw your own conclusions over whether likely or all voters is a better approach. Movement to Remain in the headline figure is entirely down to this change.

  19. @LMZ So 16% DNs in TNS?? A day before??!

  20. @Assiduosity

    With the sense-eu tool, you can play with the dates (move the slider on top).

    Up until yesterday they were showing a small lead for Remain, it seems to have been the reaction to the debate that swung it.

  21. Based on likely voters TNS has a 7% Leave lead!

  22. The Last Fandango
    I suggest you go the the EXPRESS website where it is reported exactly what Junker said today
    THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER RENEGOTIAIONS
    .see for yourself.

  23. @candy

    The debate was seen by fewer people than an episode of Top Gear without Clarkson et al. Most of those will already have been convinced of one side or other. Very unlikely it or the reporting of it has done much to VI.

    Yet another goal in Port V Hung.

  24. I like how TNS and ORB are putting 2 sets of numbers out, Giving themselves a second go at being right

  25. @Roy

    I wouldn’t even use the Express for toilet paper let alone news coverage.

  26. TNS article and link to tables is here:

    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/press-release/turnout-key-eu-referendum

    Sample size 2320 but quite a long collection period (16-22 Jun), which, given that these usually tend to be biased towards the start of the period, may mean it is a bit out of date. As always their undecided figure (16%) is quite high.

  27. Its like TNS didn’t believe there 7% leave lead, so changed things to make it only 2% so it looks better for them

  28. @LMZ

    Beginning to wonder if reality is that pollsters have NFI and just about any result is possible….

  29. I spoke to a few people today at the post office and sandwich shop here in the West Midlands. Everybody was leave, without exception.

  30. UKIP have 19% on Opinium, 46 million voters would give Leave about 8.7 million votes. I suspect a very big portion of these will vote. Based on their private polling Karen Hoey thinks a majority of Labour voters will join with Leave. Opinium have 30% for Labour so 13.8 million votes, even 50% will be 6.9 million for Leave less those who don’t vote. Add Tory, LD (me!) plus others it makes a credible case for Remain winning clearly tomorrow.

  31. http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/22/what-are-we-to-make-of-the-polls/

    Interesting article in FT re polls. Hints at government regulation of pollsters to try to ensure better accuracy if this turns out to be another debacle. Eg require media outlets to collaborate to buy fewer, bigger polls.

  32. @bantams,

    Do you mean case for leave?

  33. Since I can’t watch the Iceland game, I’m following it via the tweets from the “Rekyavik Grapevine”.

    Óðinn, sensing his intervention might be nigh, finishes his Einstök and gets to his feet. :-)

  34. @Bantams

    If it was as simple as that then Leave would have had a large and solid lead in he polls throughout the campaign…..

  35. @the last fandango,

    I have the same view of the mirror. No fan of the express by the way.

  36. @ Rich

    Just testing……….. you’re all awake out there which you obviously are!

  37. Bantams.
    Sorry cannot compute your figures to mine. Even if you have the numbers right that gives it to leave not remain surely.

  38. @Rich

    Hard to think of anything that could redeem a paper that had Piers Morgan as its editor

  39. Some of us were speculating earlier about whether pollsters would opt to ‘tweak’ their methodology in order to achieve some degree of convergence.

    On the basis of TNS it looks like that will be the order of the day.

    Opinium sticking to their position of not excluding or pushing DKs also moves us towards a dead heat result.

    It seems they’ve decided to go down (or not) on the ship together.

    A little bit of history repeating?

  40. The Last Fandango
    Are you saying that Junker has not said this or is it just an inconvenient truth? Don’t shoot the messenger just prove the message is untrue


    The British policy makers and the British voters have to know that there will not be any kind of renegotiation”

    Jean-Claud Junker

    That is what he told reporters in Brussels today,

  41. @Oldnat – it’s more good news on balancing grid output and will be a major help in bringing more renewables into play. There already an interconnector under construction between Norway and Northumberland, so this sounds like a second one.

    The only thing to bear in mind is that the sub sea connectors are relatively small capacity. These are 1.4GW, out of a peak demand of around 54GW, so while it’s helpful, it will remain a small part of the overall mix.

  42. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BGPMeQyrbCvmGzctrWnvaAV6xNXJNm1BP9WOZZWZ8bM/edit#gid=0

    I’ve updated the spreadsheet with the latest predictions from you folks (and corrected a few I input wrong, woops!)

  43. So two pollsters have arbitrarily changed their headline figures recently so their final polls converge.

    TNS – would have been a 7 point Leave lead, reduced to 2
    Opinion – would have been a 5 point Leave lead, reduced to 1

    This reminds me of the polling company who found a 31-37 Con lead at the GE in their final poll, and decided not to publish it. Can’t recall who it was now.

    The underlying position is clearly favourable to leave.

  44. “I spoke to a few people today at the post office and sandwich shop here in the West Midlands. Everybody was leave, without exception.”

    My prediction is that West Midlands will go to LEAVE 60-40. Labour areas are full of LEAVE posters.

  45. *Opinium

  46. Alec

    Thanks. I’m looking forward to the Icelandic link, if it’s anything like their fitba tweeters –

    “The ref may be a dwarf tainted by darkness… how did he hide this until now? Evil magical perhaps” :-)

  47. @Roy

    From the BBC it is very clear what he said. No further negotiation to keep uk in if we vote to leave. I quote:

    Asked about the consequences of a Brexit vote, Mr Juncker made it clear there would be no scope for further negotiations over better terms to try to keep the UK on board.

    “I have to add that the British policymakers and the British voters have to know there will be no kind of any renegotiation,” he told reporters after talks with new Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern.

    “We have concluded a deal with the prime minister, he got the maximum he could receive, we gave the maximum we could give.

    “So there will be no kind of renegotiation, nor on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned. Out is out.

  48. @ Rich

    “I spoke to a few people today at the post office and sandwich shop here in the West Midlands. Everybody was leave, without exception.”

    A serious question (or few).

    Were these people you knew?

    Did you let them know your opinions before asking theirs?

    Is the debate so alive in the West Midlands that people are genuinely talking about it at the Post Office and in the sandwich shop?

  49. So he said nothing at all about what happens if the UK stays in.

  50. Fabulous from Iceland – “Gunnarsson bears down on an Austrian unfortunate, cleaving him so that his jaw-teeth fall out onto the turf.”

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