Tuesday polls

Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.

Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.

I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.


581 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. I still believe that omitting N.Ireland is a big mistake by the polling orgs. That’s 3% of the population redundant within the polls. As the province is 2/3 in favour of remain, the polls could be out by 1-2% by methodological fault alone. In addition for the conservative to vote status quo instead of their survey intention (switch-back in the booth) and the DNs to vote 3/1 for the status quo (ORB), I think it’s curtains for leave.

    If pressed will people really jump off the cliff and test the chute or stay on the plane hoping for a good landing despite damage to the engines?

  2. As a Labour member its a sign of the times that I’m relying on the leader of the Conservatives in Scotland to put the most passionate case for remain on the BBC tonight

  3. @ DSL

    The latest N Ireland poll is 58:42 for Remain, which would move the overall result by half a percentage point.

    Pleased to see the ORB’s final projection is right in line with my own prediction of 54:46 for Remain.

  4. The six polls since 17 June (3 Phone, 3 Online) show an average of 1.5 Remain lead, so I guess that would be 2 points with N Ireland added.

    So 51/49 as an overall result.

  5. Looks like it will go down to the wire, as I thought.

  6. Thanks James E, less that I was informed. Ok, so in line with the rest of the UK then. Interesting times. As the Clash said ‘should I stay or should I go’ is what this is really about, that participation question. I’m with you, I believe this result will mirror the Scots Ref by 55/45. But like the Scot’s case, the wrangles won’t stop anytime soon. Farage put down a 2/3 proportion as that which would close the question in favour of remain. Remain won’t get that so on it goes! Like the Scots case, will those favouring Remain now suffer a backlash as Labour did in the GE after supporting the union? 2019 is a way off but Farage will have a platform of support (45%) to stretch the 24 MEPs to maybe 40? They will certainly receive some momentum from this ref if nothing else. Will the country vote to Remain but very Eurosceptically?

  7. Sounds like 52-48 for remain with Ni.

  8. Peebee. I totally agree about you. As a Labour supporter I despair about the ability to debate effectively within the party. Khan is an improvement on Angela Eagle who was hopeless.
    They should have had Caroline Lucas as one of their main speakers tonight.

  9. Lucas is a hypocrite of the very highest order. How the CAP and fisheries policy squares with green party values I will never know.

  10. Rich

    That was Poor.

  11. forgive me for pointing out, but I see it over the last few polls as a generalisation that Remain are stagnant and Leave are moving

  12. Oldnat

    The CAP keeps poor farmers….poor. Basically. Third world farmers can’t compete against guarantes prices…

  13. These last 6 polls show a better position for REMAIN than those from the preceding 10 days or so.

  14. Good Evening All.
    I think, just feel, that LEAVE have made a bit of a comeback in the last 24 hours, and I think that Old Labour areas are strong for Leave

  15. Any chance we could swap our Tories with Scotland’s? Ruth Davies is actually really impressive

  16. Ruth was very impressive, however she was somewhat let down by her team. On balance, I have to hand that one to Leave.

  17. Ruth Davison was the star tonight.
    Good to see John Barnes making clear he is voting Remain. Perhaps Mr Gove should be apologising to him for using him as an example of voting out.

    Remain to win 52/48

  18. Jamie

    It’s Ruth Davidson.

    While I watch the football, I’m keeping an eye on my Twitter timeline – full of pro-indy folk saying how well Ruthie is doing. :-)

    OK On this, she’s on the same side as us, but it seems a bit like Scots voting for the only Scot in the “Great British Debaie-Off”.

  19. There does seem to be a *movement* in the telephone polls to Leave – but probably too little and too late.

    Where did I read that undecided voters tended to break to Leave? Can’t find the source.

    The Express, Daily Mail, Telegraph and Sun headlines this morning were in your face pro Leave. If the battle is marginal, could these influences shift undecided voters?

  20. “Push polling” is often mentioned on this site, but the examples seldom live up to that billing.

    Nice to have a concrete example of it –

    http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/referendum-pushpolling-influence-result/5328

  21. Gareth

    If the undecided voters didn’t already know that those papers were for Leave, then they’re also probably incapable of knowing the way from their house to the polling station.

  22. There is a lot of preaching to the converted in those papers anyway. Same on the left for mirror, independent or even listening to say a very biased radio show like James O’brien, what the originators never fathom is most of the time you are preaching to the converted. Nowhere near the influence people think.

  23. Interesting study by Populus on the link (in England) between English and British nationalism and voting in the EUref.

    And fairly dire indications for Labour post referendum

    http://www.populus.co.uk/2016/06/the-english-question/

  24. @James E

    The latest NI poll, Ipsos-MORI for the Belfast Telegraph, was published yesterday. 37% Remain, 26% Leave, 37% DK. Which makes it a 59-41 split excluding DKs. Further, there’s expected to be a very high turn-out in NI, up to 68%, somewhere between 10-20% higher than the rest of the UK.

    NI could well be a tie breaker that’s being unobserved by many pollsters.

  25. OLDNAT

    If the first thing you see in the morning is your trusty old friend – the rag that shares and reflects your world view – telling you it’s okay to vote Leave, you may well just be coaxed to give yourself permission to do so. A large number of people, I have no doubt, really will vote in the way that Britain’s largest circulation paper tells them to.

    This isn’t to suggest they are stupid, just that in a finely balanced fight like this one, social and attitudinal validation become confused.

  26. Maybe 5% of voters who vote for change seem to switch back in the end (fear of the unknown?). Risk-averse seems to have a lot of leverage. With the rags largely in favour of Leave will the ‘vote leave and save your country’ directions give the voters the balls not to give in to ‘fear of the unknown’ in the booth?

  27. @ Jayblanc

    Turnout is expected to be in the mid- to- high sixties in GB, too.

    Even with a more decisive result in N Ireland (say 65/35) the net effect would only be one point in the net result.

  28. @OldNat

    That isn’t push polling they’ve found there – it’s people testing the effectiveness of various attack lines.
    They are seeing how much difference pushing a given claim makes to a voter, and thus hoping to deduce which lines to push (or defend against).

    It sounds basically like an attempt at a focus group on the cheap. I’ve no idea how common a practice it’s become, but I doubt it’s an example of any particularly dark powers at work.

  29. DSL

    This is kind of what I meant.

    I bought 5 papers today and after reading them my head was spinning.

    The messages from the Express and Telegraph were especially powerful and, in the case of the Telegraph, actually surpassingly sophisticated in terms of covering all bases.

    The Sun was a different kettle of fish of course but it hit the anti-establishment button in a powerful way (once I plucked up the courage to turn the first page).

    Maybe all of this will inoculate people against an anxious drift back to the status quo?

  30. Northern Ireland: we have now **qualified** to the next stage of the European competition. Withstood the Germans thanks to our great goalkeeper.

  31. “NI could well be a tie breaker that’s being unobserved by many pollsters.”

    I will believe it when I see it. I think there is no chance of it to be honest, but I’d love it to happen!

  32. The Prole

    Thanks – but I’ll take the view of “Andrew Hawkins, managing director of respected polling company ComRes, [who]said some of the questions appear to be akin to push-polling” as the more authoritative judgment.

  33. Prof Howard

    Congratulations to the team. Now if you could just get your own anthem …. :-)

  34. So my impression, as an undecided who has flip-flopped a dozen times on this, is that remain won that debate. They learnt their mistakes from the ITV debate, where they fell into the trap of attacking Boris rather than defending the EU. The choices remain put out where inspired – Sadiq Khan & Ruth Davidson are both charismatic, approachable types, with appeal that extends beyond party lines, and particularly appeal to the middle, to the crucial undecided 15%. But the most important thing was the passion, which has been missing from remain for almost the whole campaign. In a post-truth landscape, voters will vote with their guts – and that gutsy display was just what was needed.

  35. That Populus work is interesting Old Nat. And I can see the day when UKIP take a lot of Labour seats. Labour just doesn’t get, or doesn’t want to accept the rise of Englishness and what that comes with, some would say more inward looking, bigoted attitudes and suspicions. The rise of nationalism generally has favoured the nationalist parties. I see no reason why trend won’t continue. Not sure if the Scottish rampant lion hasn’t awoken the English passant gardant though. And not in a good way.

    It’s interesting that ORB suggests 3/1 split of don’t knows who will vote towards Remain. It’s got historical evidence for this point, the essence being that don’t knows aren’t convinced of the alternative so are more likely to vote Remain.

  36. Too tight to call.

    Will be interesting night on Thursday into Friday morning from the first results!

    Sunderland being strong “old Labour” will be fascinating and may well tell us which way it’s going to go!

  37. Well done Prof Howard.Probably the hosts for you in the next round.
    As Old Nat says please change your anthem. Please!

  38. Factors which could impact VI on Thursday;

    – Shy Brexit voters
    – Swing to status quo
    – Under-estimation of anti-EU sentiment (found in polling for all other recent EU related referendumsa across Europe)

    I passionately hope we leave the EU, however my brain tells me it’s going to be 52/48 for remain. But I hope I am pleasantly surprised.

  39. Personally I thought Sadiq Khan was the standout performer – he’s a former lawyer and it showed. But I’ve been banging the “Ruth Davidson is awesome” drum for quite a while now so maybe I had higher expectations of her to begin with.

  40. Polltroll

    I think Francis O’Grady was not quite so good and probably the worst, though certainly not a disaster.

    People like it when Ruth Davidson talks about how she served her country in uniform; she does that kind of passionate talk very well.

    I think the two women on Leave were very good though, and there is something so unflappable about Leadsham.

  41. LEAVE winning in Britain Elect poll on twitter 53-47. Very unreliable poll of course but considering the old ‘technophobes’ are massively in favour of LEAVE, I have to say I am becoming more confident of LEAVE victory.

  42. To vote on twitter you need a twitter account. And not many people over 65 have one. So yes, for Leave to win a twitter poll is quite the achievement!

  43. @PROFHOWARD

    I actually thought Leadsham was rather sanctimonious in her style, with that supercilious smile that is meant to reassure but actually puts me off big time. She seemed to me to be a headmistress lecturing children at assembly.

    For me, Ruth was the big star tonight – she was blunt, down to earth and passionate.

  44. Mactavish: Twitter polls are about as reliable as magic 8-balls. Those votes could be the work of a couple dozen Vote Leave campaigners with a hundred sockpuppet accounts each.

  45. Mactavish, Oddschecker have seen identical numbers, 57% of the bets placed on Remain, 43% placed on Leave.

  46. Leave may win, but a Twitter poll means nothing whatsoever.

  47. @POLLTROLL

    Khan started tentatively but finished strongly. He improved as it went on, but I wish he spoke more clearly as he seemed to gabble some words at times.

    The TUC lady was weak – they should have had Tim Farron there, not her. Big mistake.

  48. “Those votes could be the work of a couple dozen Vote Leave campaigners with a hundred sockpuppet accounts each.”

    yes and there could be a chocolate teapot floating between earth and mars which is, also, by the way, your God

    of course twitter polls are not representative, but it’s a simple fact that twitter is massively skewed toward the young, which would produce a disproportionately pro-Remain result

  49. The internet, and particularly Twitter, Facebook and YouTube seem to be dominated by leave supporters. Not sure why, but I assume it’s all part of some big strategy to use the latest technology to swamp the opposition.

  50. When’s Glastonbury kicking off?

    Seriously – my hunch is that it could be that close!

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