There are three polls in tomorrow morning’s papers – ORB in the telephone, YouGov in the Times and a NatCen poll in the Financial Times.

YouGov for the Times has topline figures of REMAIN 42%(-2), LEAVE 44%(+1), Don’t know or Won’t vote 13%, conducted between Friday and Sunday. While Leave nudge ahead of Remain again, YouGov continue to show an extremely close race (and it confirms the narrowing of the race from the seven point Leave lead they had a week ago).

ORB’s poll is reported in the Telegraph as showing Remain “surging back into the lead” with figures of Remain 53%(+5), Leave 46%(-3). These figures are based on only those certain to vote however, and ORB have previously suggested that they regard their figures for all voters as their primary measure. On those figures the movement is in the other direction – REMAIN 49%(nc), LEAVE 47%(+3).

Thirdly there is a NatCen poll. Full details of the NatCen poll were embargoed until midnight, but Reuters have the topline figures here. Headline voting intention is REMAIN 53%, LEAVE 47% – but it’s important to note that the fieldwork is very old, conducted between May 16th and June 12th, with two thirds of the fieldwork done before May 26th.

This means the NatCen poll is of limited use in measuring current support, but is an interesting methodological experiment. The poll was conducted online by recontacting people who took the randomly sampled British Social Attitudes Survey, making it effectively a small randomly recruited online panel (people who couldn’t be contacted online were interviewed by phone instead, taking several weeks over the fieldwork to maximise response rate). Random recruitment of online panels is often suggested as a potential way forward for polling, though it’s not necessarily a panacea (in the States Pew already have a randomly recruited online panel called the American Trends Panel, but when they benchmarked it on how representative it was compared to commercial online panels recruited from volunteers and it ended up mid table).

Looking back at other polling at about the time the NatCen poll was conducted, online polls were showing an average Remain lead of about two points, telephone polls were showing an average lead of about twelve points, so the six point Remain lead is somewhere inbetween the two.

The Natcen fieldwork took place between the significant shift towards Leave we saw at the start of June, and obviously before the possible movement back towards Remain in recent days. In the Reuters article NatCen are quoted as saying that responses moved towards Leave over the fieldwork period, though it’s not possible to tell if that was changing opinions or harder to reach people being more Leave. Slightly counter-intuitively it also says that people who answered the survey online were more Remain than people who answered by phone – though that could easily be because people who couldn’t take the survey online were older or poorer.


309 Responses to “YouGov, ORB and Natcen polls”

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  1. @DAVID CARROD

    “We are supporting them by voting the same way, and I could equally say what gives Remainers the right to make what we consider to be ‘wrong’ decision which will affect their future?”

    There is a difference, because what you are proposing is a fundamental change to the status quo – on which many people have planned their lives. And if you are happy to cut off your nose to spite your face it doesn’t all of us have to. It is the leave camp who are proposing a revolution, NOT the remain camp.

  2. Anyone know when the Opinium poll is due out?

  3. @Tancred
    “There is a difference, because what you are proposing is a fundamental change to the status quo –”

    Remain will not be the status quo, but ever closer union, with things like a European army and direct EU taxation in the offing. Cameron’s opt-out is meaningless.

    A lot of us have very strong views on this issue (I have been out campaigning all day), but let’s try to keep this a place for polite exchange of views. And preferably about polling. I called it 52-48 for Leave recently, and it looks as though polls might be moving slightly towards that.

    Now I’m off for a well-deserved pint.

  4. It’s a very nice world that the Leave people mostly seem to live in, but unfortunately it’s not the world we actually live in where nobody is going to be desperate to give us a living.

    But enough of the politics, what about the polls and the various circumstantial evidence we get. Still fairly balanced by the looks of things, we’ve had chatter about postal votes being heavily leave, but some the other way, and not enough to be validated. Polls probably have remain ahead by a whisker. Canvassers reporting better than they expect for whoever they’re supporting.

    All in all if the status quo bias we hear about operates then remain wins. But that’s to put a lot of trust in polls which of late have not been terribly reliable. And we have project fear on both sides.

    Overall conclusion, what do the bookies know that nobody else does? Because they’re the only ones calling this with any confidence.

  5. @Berious

    Tomorrow around 4:30 field work between 20th and 22nd, 3000 sample

  6. Neil A: “A single market would still be a single market even without the free movement aspect.”

    No, it’s not just semantics. The term ‘Single Market’ was coined to differentiate it from a free trade area.

    How can a single market – as opposed to 28 separate markets – exist if, say, a salesman from Italy is not allowed to go and sell his wares in France? Or a British firm set up a subsidiary in Spain and send some of its key staff over to train up the new employees, if they all have to get work permits and jump through hoops? That’s like having a free trade area with customs posts.

    If the USA introduced movement restrictions between states, it would still be a free trade area, but it would not be a single market, because a single market is defined as one with unrestricted movement of goods, services, capital and people.

  7. @Tancred

    “this is why a leave result in the referendum should not be valid unless (1) there is also a leave majority in parliament OR (2) the leave camp win by at least 66.6%. At the very least, a majority for leave should not count unless over 50% of the total electorate (not just the turnout) vote leave. Any other result should keep the status quo.”

    But parliament is not elected proportionally to votes, whereas the referendum is exactly proportional. And it’s a newer vote! Also I would oppose advocating an approach which would enable the minority to dictate to the majority. Back to the drawing board!

  8. @DRMIBBLES

    But probably not minimal on trade in services which is very important for the UK.

  9. Tancred

    “I resent people making decision which will affect MY livelihood, MY pension and MY future. Many people voting leave are over 60 and have lived their life, but not me!!”

    I am also nowhere near being over 60 but take a very different view on events. It seems to me as a younger person I am in a better position to take the risk of leaving than an older person. I have few assets to speak off and have the rest of my life to recover them and more if they somehow disappear, a luxury an older person does not have. You speak as if your whole life plan will be ruined by pesky leavers using their democratic right. I would suggest even if the result does go your way you should formulate a more flexible plan for the future and hedge better against unexpected events.

  10. I don’t think the whole thing is down to rational arguments – that would make life easy.

    If we can believe the polls, semiskilled and unskilled working class people,will vote disproportionally (if they do vote …) for Brexit. On the basis of my professional judgement they will be the single largest loser group (and huge losses) in the case of Brexit. I, and many others (if you want privilaged) will have a short shock, but will not really have to change my lifestyle. This is the real tragedy of the way in which the campaign has been conducted.

    Anyway, Labour is mobilising for canvassing on Thursday.

    Today – about 120 terraced houses, 4 Remain window posters, no leave. The remains are not from the same party affiliations.

  11. Alec: “My complaint about migration within the EU is that it should be viewed as a symptom of failure. We need to be developing poorer regions, and dealing with the push factors as much as anything else.”

    Well, that’s an interesting and fundamental difference between our views.

    Economic development has always been marked by migration of people to where the work is. In the industrial revolution, from the fields to the mills; in the last few decades, from industrial areas to the services-driven south-east. And, yes, from post-communist Poland to booming pre-crash Britain.

    In the 1930s, the Okies and others emigrated from the corn belt to California. Europe didn’t have that freedom: the pressures of unemployment bottled up within stagnant economies contributed in no small part to the rise of totalitarianism.

    Of course it’s right to develop poorer regions and deal with the push factors. That’s what the EU regional policy is for. It’s what a large part of our net contribution goes towards. If Poland and Romania grow fast (as they are), that not only reduces the incentive to emigrate, it contributes to the growth of Europe. We buy their Dacias, they buy our Scotch. Everyone’s a winner.

  12. A couple of things one on the EU and one more on a general election

    The Electoral Commission have just released the number of registered voters 46.5 million which is up 150k on the general but 2 million up on december 2015. The boundry review is being done on the register from December 2015 so that will favour the torys?

    Second the drop of 2 million came from the torys cutting people off the register from the general election may 2015 to december 2015. Old link
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-tories-are-removing-twice-as-many-people-from-the-electoral-register-in-britains-poorest-areas-a6701446.html

    But with a drop in poor from the register surely favours remain as the poor areas are more likely to vote leave and less likely to have resigned up. Where as the extra 2 million that have now signed up are more like to be the young and richer with better access to signing up. This could be a big bonus for remain

  13. I have to say that I haven’t seen a single canvasser, not had a leaflet pushed through. I have of course received the government ones, but that’s it.

    I haven’t seen a single poster of any side displayed either.

  14. @ Somerjohn

    “Economic development has always been marked by migration of people to where the work is. In the industrial revolution, from the fields to the mills; in the last few decades, from industrial areas to the services-driven south-east. And, yes, from post-communist Poland to booming pre-crash Britain.”

    Excellent.

  15. Thoughtful

    I amazed at that.I have seen a lot of Leave posters and one Remain one. I have had Remain and Leave literature through my letterbox.

  16. @Laszlo @thoughtful

    Might be intresting to post what area you are from when talking about, posters and leaflets.

    Here in a small village in south yorkshires its pretty much all leave apart from the farmer frields when you say the odd remain sign. Huge labour area round here tho ukip did pretty well at the general election finshed second in the rother valley

  17. In my house we are currently receiving a leaflet a day, first one side, then the other.

  18. @ LMZ

    It’s Liverpool, Mossley Hill ward – kind of upper working class, middle class, but largely terraced houses (with pockets of semis). Labour voting with a large LibDem (except for 2015 elections) voting segment.

    Demographically split between oldies and young families (which makes it quite transient – in the same number of houses the sale sign is about 12). In the local real estate agent’s window about 15 lettings are advertised.

    It is a quite affluent area of Liverpool (but not the most affluent). In the neighbourhood there is only one black family, a couple of Yemenis, some Poles, Lithuanians, some South-East Asians, some Latin-Americans, myself (:-)), some very strong Irish accent.

  19. Live in Yorkshire dales. Handful of posters – equally split between leave and remain. A few leaflets, more remain than leave. That is about it!

  20. Ynys Mon (Anglesey). Predominantly Plaid & Labour. Had the official leaflets, one joint leaflet from the Labour MP & Plaid AM. No canvassing. Most posters are for BREXIT, everyone I work with is for BREXIT (and they are all Labour & Plaid voters) and I everyone I know is for BREXIT.

  21. Compared with electorate for the GE 2015, the electorate has risen slightly in Northern Ireland, Wales and England.

    In Scotland, it has dropped by 111,000 – 2.7%

    Will that make any difference? Who knows?

  22. Watching this BBC debate…if the Economy is Remain’s strong point it’s not going fantastically for them…pretty evenly matched

  23. “Of course it’s right to develop poorer regions and deal with the push factors. That’s what the EU regional policy is for. It’s what a large part of our net contribution goes towards. If Poland and Romania grow fast (as they are), that not only reduces the incentive to emigrate, it contributes to the growth of Europe. We buy their Dacias, they buy our Scotch. Everyone’s a winner.”
    @somerjohn June 21st, 2016 at 7:50 pm

    This is the positive case for the EU. This is why, if we stay in, after 15, 20 or 30 years 500 million people will be doing so much better. There is still work to do to reduce the CAP expenditure. But it is being reduced, loosening the hold France has over it. Their grip IS being loosened.

    Think back to the 80s, when Spain, Greece and Portugal were being developed. Monty Python talked about Watney’s Red Barrel and everyone complained that their hotels were on building sites. Look at them now. My plan is to retire to the Canaries. Romania and Bulgaria are two countries that, once developed over the next two or three decades, will be a HUGH draw to more northern Europeans as the Mediterranean countries has been over the last couple of decades.

    The eurozone will not be struggling forever. Looking to the long term, the EU has a great future. A market of 440 million people will, in the long term, be too big for the UK to control unless we let our country grow substantially. So even if the UK comes out, if it wishes to stay out it must accept immigration, if it wants to have influence.

  24. The BBC debate is already 4-0 up for Leave before half-time, so far as I can see.

  25. @ DRMIBBLES

    LOL , You would say that.

  26. Why are the brexit people only capable of saying ‘take back control’? Are they mentally retarded or simply limited in vocabulary? Ruth Davidson is brilliant – she is chewing fat Boris and the two stupid old women. Sadiq is doing ok but the TUC woman is a bit weak as a debater.

  27. Once there were rules on not commenting PMQ now we have this echo chamber on the the television debate (my only comment is that it feels alien).

  28. TANCRED
    Ruth Davidson is brilliant – she is chewing fat Boris and the two stupid old women.

    Never thought I’d praise a Con but I have to agree with you there.

  29. Ruth is brilliant – she would beat the crap out of the two decrepit old mummies and also fatso Johnson!

  30. @AL URQA

    The eurozone will not be struggling forever

    No, it will almost certainly collapse because of its own internal stressors.
    It wouldn’t be appropriate to type out a whole piece as to what is wrong with it, but failure is I’m afraid an inevitability.

  31. *Ahem* what has Boris Johnson’s body mass index got to do with anything?

  32. Ruth Davidson, she is fantastic, i wish she was an MP. I would love her to be the next Conservative Leader.

  33. Tancred – “Why are the brexit people only capable of saying ‘take back control’?”

    Because it’s a good slogan – it sums up the Leave campaign and the whole country is now aware of the slogan. Not sure what the Remain slogan is – it’s hard to sum them up in a few words. They arn’t exactly positive about the EU, and they talk half-heartedly about reforming it, but at the same time never mention their renegotiation.

    Gisela is the best performer tonight, followed by Ruth Davidson. If Gisela was leader of the Labour party and Ruth the leader of the Conservatives, I think Gisela might win the general election. Why have Labour been wasting her talents all this time?

  34. CANDY
    Gisela is the best performer tonight, followed by Ruth Davidson. If Gisela was leader of the Labour party and Ruth the leader of the Conservatives, I think Gisela might win the general election. Why have Labour been wasting her talents all this time?

    Because she comes across as a Con, perhaps?

  35. @CANDY

    Slogans are empty rhetoric, like all of the leave campaign. It’s just a lie and as Goebbels used to say, if you are going to lie make sure it’s a big one as it is more likely to be believed.

  36. P.S. The “as a mother” thing. It is another clever slogan. It is a way of emphasising that they are doing it for their children.

    It is also a direct message to other women with children, a key demographic Leave needs to win. (Motherhood is a club and people who haven’t given birth don’t really get it.)

  37. @CANDY

    Remain don’t need a slogan because the remain rationale is about doing the right thing and making the logical decision. Leave just harp on endlessly about taking back control and project fear. The remain argument is about project reality, not fear. The leave argument is about big empty slogans and patriotic ‘big talk’ – in truth this is all BS. What plan does the leave camp have? They have NO plans, none at all. It’s just hot air.

  38. Thoughtful: The eurozone will not be struggling forever
    No, it will almost certainly collapse because of its own internal stressors.”

    In every single one of the 19 countries in the eurozone, polls show a majority against reverting to the legacy currency.

    Why do you think this might be? Are they all stupid, or brainwashed? Or could it be that people who use the euro every day, like it and want it to continue? That they prefer a stable currency to perpetually-devalued currencies like the lira, peseta or drachma?

    If the people of 19 countries want something to endure and succeed, there’s a good chance it will do so. Sitting on the sidelines and scoffing is not an edifying posture. But maybe it’s what Brits do best.

  39. @CANDY

    Mothers need to avoid risk to safeguard their childrens’ future. Leave offer uncertainty, not control. We are stronger together in this powerful trading club that is the EU, not by venturing into the unknown.
    Ruth was by far the best – no contest.

  40. @TANCRED

    One of the big mistakes in this referendum people are making is to treat Vote Leave as a political party. Of course they are not and they cannot have any plans for the post referendum world.

    Equally they cannot say what they would do for a myriad of reasons.

    The truth is that no one knows the future, and vote leave will never be in a position to influence it post referendum, although certain individuals might be.

  41. @Tancred:

    Sorry to single you out, since others have been rather partisan tonight too, but… despite seeing your name pop up a lot this evening, I haven’t seen you mention a single word about polls. This isn’t facebook, and writing some words to the effect of ‘leave are terrible’ in every post almost certainly violates the comments policy. It’s not a bad thing to let us know your views moderately and occasionally (in fact it can help put into context whatever evaluations you give) but seriously, not so heavy-handed please.

    Thanks.

  42. @Tancred

    There is a quote attributed to Einstein which says, “If you can’t explain it to a six year old, you don’t understand it yourself”

    This is a big reason brands try to sum up the essence of what they are doing in a simple phrase.

    Everyone watching tonight will have come away knowing that Leave was about taking back control of the UK and that there were mothers in favour of Brexit.

    What would they take away from the Remain side…?

  43. British hate preacher Anjem Choudary – who is currently facing charges of supporting Islamic State – has told Breitbart London that he thinks the United Kingdom should stay in the European Union

    Well there’s a great recommendation I bet Remain are thrilled !

  44. @RELICK

    There is little to say about polls other than what we have known for weeks – it’s going to be very close and could go either way.

  45. @THOUGHTFUL

    Utterly irrelevant and meaningless – you could argue Harold Shipman wanted to vote Tory or Labour, but should that influence one’s vote?

  46. Reading the last few comments, I can’t believe that I have one in moderation …

  47. @CANDY

    Einstein’s quote applies to science perhaps, but not politics. Having a couple of old women on the leave panel stating ‘take back control’ like a mantra will not convince many women with a respectable IQ. Repeating mantras all the time is a typical tactic of extremist politicians. Nazis loved slogans: ‘Freiheit und Brot’ was a favourite one, meaning ‘freedom and bread’. An utterly silly slogan but one that worked on a nation where 6 million were unemployed and on the brink of starvation.

    The remain view is simple: don’t risk your future and you children’s future. Don’t leap in the unknown.

  48. @ Tancred

    “Utterly irrelevant and meaningless – you could argue Harold Shipman wanted to vote Tory or Labour, but should that influence one’s vote?”

    I suppose it would. Although I don’t have a voting right, ever since the Leave moved to where it is now (not the supporters, but the campaign itself) I have actively campaigned for remain, even if a few months ago I would have voted for Leave. The argument seems to work – nothing about the points, just look at the other camp …

    Anyway, this is not a place for a Crusade – just saying.

  49. @TANCRED

    The humour of it seems to have completely passed you by Tancred.

  50. CANDY
    What would they take away from the Remain side…?

    Belloc would be apposite for the matrons……

    And always keep ahold of nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.

    And eminently true in the case of what the outers were pushing.

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