There are three polls in tomorrow morning’s papers – ORB in the telephone, YouGov in the Times and a NatCen poll in the Financial Times.

YouGov for the Times has topline figures of REMAIN 42%(-2), LEAVE 44%(+1), Don’t know or Won’t vote 13%, conducted between Friday and Sunday. While Leave nudge ahead of Remain again, YouGov continue to show an extremely close race (and it confirms the narrowing of the race from the seven point Leave lead they had a week ago).

ORB’s poll is reported in the Telegraph as showing Remain “surging back into the lead” with figures of Remain 53%(+5), Leave 46%(-3). These figures are based on only those certain to vote however, and ORB have previously suggested that they regard their figures for all voters as their primary measure. On those figures the movement is in the other direction – REMAIN 49%(nc), LEAVE 47%(+3).

Thirdly there is a NatCen poll. Full details of the NatCen poll were embargoed until midnight, but Reuters have the topline figures here. Headline voting intention is REMAIN 53%, LEAVE 47% – but it’s important to note that the fieldwork is very old, conducted between May 16th and June 12th, with two thirds of the fieldwork done before May 26th.

This means the NatCen poll is of limited use in measuring current support, but is an interesting methodological experiment. The poll was conducted online by recontacting people who took the randomly sampled British Social Attitudes Survey, making it effectively a small randomly recruited online panel (people who couldn’t be contacted online were interviewed by phone instead, taking several weeks over the fieldwork to maximise response rate). Random recruitment of online panels is often suggested as a potential way forward for polling, though it’s not necessarily a panacea (in the States Pew already have a randomly recruited online panel called the American Trends Panel, but when they benchmarked it on how representative it was compared to commercial online panels recruited from volunteers and it ended up mid table).

Looking back at other polling at about the time the NatCen poll was conducted, online polls were showing an average Remain lead of about two points, telephone polls were showing an average lead of about twelve points, so the six point Remain lead is somewhere inbetween the two.

The Natcen fieldwork took place between the significant shift towards Leave we saw at the start of June, and obviously before the possible movement back towards Remain in recent days. In the Reuters article NatCen are quoted as saying that responses moved towards Leave over the fieldwork period, though it’s not possible to tell if that was changing opinions or harder to reach people being more Leave. Slightly counter-intuitively it also says that people who answered the survey online were more Remain than people who answered by phone – though that could easily be because people who couldn’t take the survey online were older or poorer.


309 Responses to “YouGov, ORB and Natcen polls”

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  1. @Barbazenzero – “And always keep ahold of nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.”

    They kind of over-egged it though.

    I came away with the impression that Remain thought we were in a hostage situation and if we tried to leave our captors would be sure to exterminate us!

    Not sure if that works. England isn’t really scared of much, it’s not that type of place.

  2. Tancred
    “There is little to say about polls other than what we have known for weeks ”

    Nevertheless, that is the purpose of this site. We all stray occasionally, but your posts are just relentlessly about the politics, and from a very partisan perspective. Many of us have strong views, but most of us try not to let that colour our analysis of the polls.

  3. I know this thread’s over, but for a bit of light relief, and a rather heart-warming affirmation of how Britain can enter into the spirit of Europe, here’s the British ambassador to Spain defending ‘atrocities against Spanish cuisine’ and striking back with a rather appetising recipe for a roast chicken Sunday lunch. Even if you don’t have any Spanish, you’ll get the drift:

    http://elcomidista.elpais.com/elcomidista/2016/06/15/articulo/1465980850_619891.html

  4. CANDY
    Not sure if that works. England isn’t really scared of much, it’s not that type of place.

    You may be right, though they should be afraid of uncosted statements which are utterly unsupported. Weren’t you somewhat critical of the Scottish Yes campaign for much the same reason?

  5. Ok has anyone resolved the disagreement between the Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe

    and the Telegraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

    about Friday morning? Guardian says Sunderland will announce their local result at 12.30 am

    Telegraph says we have to wait for regional results at 4am at the earliest

    Now you know this is a life-changing issue! I am certainly not going to stay up till 4 am watching Dimbleby talk endlessly to some superannuated political hacks about nothing. But 12.30 am, that is more like it!

    Manchester Evening News tonight suggests the Guardian is correct

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/when-european-referendum-result-announced-11506125

    ( I see they back remain, so any undecided voters please click on the link! I do not think there are any left here however!)

  6. @PETE B

    I am vociferous because I am very deeply concerned. I am concerned far more than in a general election when you can vote the fools out after 5 years. This one is forever! I don’t think I need to apologise for banging my drum. I have a job, a mortgage, a pension fund that I ma desperately trying to build up and a family – I am SCARED TO DEATH! Yes – TO DEATH. I am having problems sleeping and this whole thing is affecting my health now. Thanks David bl**dy Cameron!

  7. @CANDY

    “I came away with the impression that Remain thought we were in a hostage situation and if we tried to leave our captors would be sure to exterminate us!
    Not sure if that works. England isn’t really scared of much, it’s not that type of place.”

    What a load of pompous tosh. OK – if you are old and one foot in the grave you don’t need to be afraid, if you are rich then you don’t need to be afraid, but if you have a job, a mortgage, a pension, a family to maintain then BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID. Leave rely on jingoism and flag waving pomposity, not reality. WHERE IS THE PLAN, BORIS? WHERE IS THE MASTER PLAN? There isn’t one, and that’s the plain truth. we are being asked to jump into the unknown and all they can say is that we are the fifth biggest economy and we’ll be ok regardless – NO WE WON’T!

  8. @Tancred, DC is wiley old fox. He knows Labour will suffer most out of this, like the Scottish question; they’ll look even more out of touch. Plus he puts the question to bed and his naughty MPs have to shut up having been given their chance.. But does he put UKIP to bed or has he made them even more popular?

  9. When do the final polls come out today and who are the companies concerned?

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