Like the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday, YouGov in the Sunday Times show Remain ahead again following the pro-Leave polls a week ago. Topline figures are REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday (full tabs are here). Almost inevitably people are going to look at these polls and assume that the murder of Jo Cox on Thursday has caused the move back towards remain.

My own view is that Jo Cox’s death probably isn’t the cause of the reverse. YouGov also conducted a poll on Wednesday-Thursday for ITV, and that already showed Leave’s lead falling (and indeed, a third of the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before Jo Cox’s death was announced). Looking at the rest of the questions, there is also a marked shift in people’s views on how they think leaving the EU would impact their finances – 33% of people now think that they would be worse off outside the EU, compared to 23% a fortnight ago.

The historic trend in referendums is for people to move towards the status quo. In Scotland a couple of years ago a couple of polls a fortnight out were neck-and-neck, but moved back to a clear NO lead by the final polls (and there was a further swing on the day itself). In the EU referendum polls have consistently shown that people think leave is the riskier choice and that people think it will damage the economy. While it was never inevitable, this has always suggested that late movement towards Remain was quite likely. If people are increasingly worried about Brexit’s impact on their own personal finances, then even more so.

Of course, we will never know for sure. The reality is that we can see changes in headline voting intention in polls, but we can never be certain what causes them: all we can do is look at what events happened at the same time and at what changes there have been in other questions in the poll that might have driven a shift. What we do know is that, whatever the reason, we’ve got four new polls tonight – some before Jo Cox’s death, some after – with three of them showing a shift back towards Remain.


541 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%”

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  1. Whatever the outcome I just hope we can come together and heal. This campaign has bought out the very worst in us.

  2. Agreed. There will be significant fall out after Thursday whatever the result. We have to challenge the level of hate out there and the press must tone down their reporting.

  3. I don’t know. You wait ages for a new UKPR thread and then three come along at once. The second (or rather the first – f/w 15-16 Jun) YouGov poll was for Good Morning Britain again and the tables are here:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lvxwtdus18/GMBResults_160616_EURef_Website.pdf

    Presumably it had been meant to publish it on Friday morning and it got swept away by events.

    On of the myths of modern politics is ‘momentum’ – not Mr Corbyn’s fan club, but the idea that when things start to change in a particular direction, that change will accelerate of its own accord as voters rush to join the winner. This simply doesn’t happen that often – most people don’t study politics closely enough to even realise what the latest bandwagon is or where its going. And those that do tend to stick to their views without being swayed by fashion.

    The GMB poll shows very little movement in the headline or the detail since a fortnight before; a small and equal boost to both sides as undecideds made up their mind. So if there has a change, it has been reversed.

  4. Am I the only one thinking UKIPs share of the polled electorate is way too small? 163 UKIP supporter out of 1700 asked adult Brits accounts for less than 10 percent, 9.6 percent exactly, in the poll.

    If UKIP is getting 16 to 17 percent on average in the last three polls regarding Westminster and if you take into count that nearly everyone in this country who is british over 18 years old and only shows the slightest sympathy towards Ukip will vote next Thursday therefore leading to a much higher UKIP turnout than on average across all parties I find such a low number hard to imagine.

  5. Comres say they saw leave drop from 45 to 38% as news of Jo Cox broke.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jo-coxs-death-sparks-eu-8226820

  6. I said Jo’s murder would be the deathknell for Leave

  7. I’ve decided to vote remain.

    I’ve not been impressed by anyone’s campaign. I particularly think Cameron and Osbourne ae lying toads but have decided for the status quo as the leave campaign haven’t convinced me.

  8. The problem you’re going to have here is what people feel they have to say after a shocking incident – particularly in phone polls where they have to talk to another person.

    Whether that will continue on until Thursday after several more days of rhetoric will depend how deftly the players get the media to report their stuff.

    Will the Leave camp be prepared to tell the truth – as put forward by Michael Kalecki in the 1940s: “Fascism sprang up in Germany against a background of tremendous unemployment, and maintained itself in power through securing full employment while capitalist democracy failed to do so. The fight of the progressive forces for all employment is at the same time a way of preventing the recurrence of fascism”

    If it becomes too easy for employers to hire Greenfield foreign workers, then those more difficult hires in the resident population tend to become radicalised. That’s what unlimited unskilled EU immigration leads to.

    The Leave camp has to go all out on immigration, but they really need to tailor their campaigning to the *actual* issue in question at this referendum – which is the 88% of EU immigrants that wouldn’t otherwise get a work visa and therefore compete for job positions with the likes of Thomas Mair.

  9. The Batley and Spen by-election will be contested, Liberty GB’s Jack Buckby is standing. I encourage you to Google him, he really is something else. 95% for Labour I’m thinking.

  10. Looks like a bit of recovery for Remain but really everything is within the error range so who can tell?
    My feeling is Remain will just win as the fear factor and tendency to the status quo will come through but it really is just a feeling
    I do feel whatever the result this referendum has been very bad for the country and politics
    It has increased divisions and been fought with venom and much misleading and spin-to be fair lab the lds the greens and nationalists have not indulged in this as much as the tories
    If the result is at all close these wounds wont heal quickly
    Overall it has been terrible and perhaps the much mocked carp Ed Miliband had a point when he opposed the referendum from the start

  11. @RICHARD
    ‘Comres say they saw leave drop from 45 to 38% as news of Jo Cox broke.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jo-coxs-death-sparks-eu-8226820

    There does seem to be some effect of the death of Jo Cox there

  12. @Berious:

    I think it has brought the worst out of politicians, who have treated the public like idiots.

    As for toning down the press, I fear the burden of that will fall on those concerned about immigration. Those who see such concerns as prima facie evidence of racism and xenophobia are likely to be in full flood.

    Toning down does not work. As it is predicated on who the person making the accusation thinks is right and who is wrong. Politicians setting a better tone – less spin, more argument – is the only possibility. But that can only be policed by public reaction.

    Maybe this will happen. If the murder is seen as costing Leave the vote, it may also be concluded that Leave would not have been vulnerable without the £350m business, the wholly unnecessary overstating the Turkish accession issue, and Farage’s wholly unnecessary poster aimed at attracting those he already had and repelling don’t knows.

  13. test

  14. The events of Thursday 16/6/16 (not only the political assassination but also the Brexit poster of refugees crossing a European border) cannot be undone. They will influence moderate undecided voters who have not yet cast their ballot. The polls are just starting to pick this up and I expect this to be confirmed in subsequent ones over the next 2-3 days.

    I was always convinced that Remain would win and shall now be surprised if Remain do not win by at least 10%.

  15. I’m glad I’m not in a position of having to place a bet on the outcome, because it appears the election is so finely balanced it could go either way and then, by a narrow margin.

    As we’ve discussed before, the worst possible outcome will be a very narrow win for remain, with half the country dissatisfied by the result.

    That might be a wound impossible to ever heal.

  16. In terms of mood music, the awful murder has had a noticeable impact on attitudes of people I have spoken to. This isn’t just about the momentum of the debate being lost although the rebellion of 60 Tory MPs against Osborne and Cameron has been forgotten (surely this would have been a pivotal moment in a normal non murderous week?)

    The fear for the future is that bitterness will become even more entrenched if there is even a perception that the murder shifted the debate from the parameters of everyday lived experience.

    The ComRes attitude findings – pre and post murder – are striking and difficult to dismiss.

  17. A couple of points

    1. We will probably now have shy Leavers, now that those that vote Leave are being associated with the far right many will claim to be Remain

    2. The referendum wont settle it – if Remain win Leave will always believe the vote was won because of the murder and Remain using the murder to tarnish the Leave campaign.

  18. Pete1 (and others)
    “but have decided for the status quo”

    Unfortunately this isn’t an option. The EU is delaying announcing plans for closer integration until after the referendum. For instance a European army and direct taxation by the EU.

    The choice is between ever closer integration (and Cameron did not get an exemption from this), or independence.

  19. RICHARD

    Comres say they saw leave drop from 45 to 38% as news of Jo Cox broke.
    ht tp://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jo-coxs-death-sparks-eu-8226820

    This is pretty much rubbish. You wouldn’t really know it from the article[1], but ComRes didn’t actually ask how people would vote in the Referendum. Instead they asked:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Sunday-People-Independent_Political-Poll_June-2016-33014.pdf#page=23

    Which of the following emotions do you think you will feel the most in the result of Britain voting to [Leave / Remain] in the European Union at next week’s referendum?

    with the options given: Delighted, Terrified, Disappointed, Anxious, Upset, Relieved and also None of these and Don’t know. As stated it’s actually a poor question anyway, because it’s not clear how many options people thought they could tick (it averaged just over two) which might skew things.

    It’s a drop in the percentage of “those polled [who] said they would be ‘delighted’ if the UK voted to leave the EU” that is actually being reported – from 45% to 38%. But that isn’t the same as an event altering how people would vote, just how they would react to various hypothetical situations. People might feel less likely to say they were delighted about anything in the circumstances

    But this is an online poll, so there’s no way of telling whether people had even heard of the attack by then (they’ve just compared responses before and after 2pm on Thursday). So we can’t say that people are reacting to something when they might be completely ignorant about it and certainly couldn’t have heard more than scraps of information about the attack[3].

    What is more, online polls use a form of quota sampling – usually on age and sex if nothing else. Because this was at the end of the sampling period it’s very possible that only certain groups of people were being asked – under 35s say. And we know that responses can vary according to when they are asked in the collection period – think of the early spike in UKIP responses that both ICM and BES reported[2]. If the post-2pm sample was mostly young voters you would expect them to be more pro-EU for example.

    And because it was collected at the very end of the process there simply weren’t very many people in the later part of the sample – only 192 (just over 9% of the total number) – not enough for the difference to be statistically significant even in a perfectly balanced poll. Which this wasn’t.

    So to sum up, this is a conclusion based on a tiny and unrepresentative sample ‘responding’ to an event they probably didn’t know about by answering a completely different question. This is about as bad as polling gets without involving premium phone lines to the Daily Express.

    [1] Foe some reason I found it really dispiriting that the Mirror insisted on describing Cox as a “41 year old mum of two”. Do complex people have to be reduced down to a tabloid cliche that was ridiculous long before they were born?

    [2] Which looks like it replicated in the early support for Leave in the responses to NeilA’s question on UKPR.

    [3] Given how few on here had heard of Cox, it’s unlikely the average voter would be aware of her support for Remain for example.

  20. @Neil [email protected]

    Good posts both.

    Sadly it remains my view that “remain will win by a 10-12% margin, a view i have held throughout the campaign. I agree with AW’s reasoning although there may be more shy “leavers” after last weeks tragic events.

  21. We had exactly the same dynamic in the indyref an attempt by the establishment to paint the Yes movement as violent racists, luckily only an egg was thrown but every slight infraction was seized upon by the press and Better Together whereas a unionist attempting to run Alex Salmond off the road & the far right demos in George Square on the 19th largely ignored. It’s the establishment playbook when under threat.

    The problem is you cant demonise near 50% of the population. I saw a comment from the Remain camp ‘ Not everyone that votes Leaves is a racist but every racist will vote Leave’ Seriously is this anyway to conduct a referendum on whether Britain should be part of the EU?

  22. I’ve always thought that Remain would win in the end, although I’m personally for Brexit personally (increasing democratic accountability is my reason).

    However, I am not convinced at all by these collection of polls. All movement is within margin-of-error. The Comedy Results ‘poll’ relating to the movement after Jo’s death is a sample of about 200 – so a margin of error of +/- 7%.

    Until I see some movement outside of MoE I’m putting it down to statistical white noise. I also think that, in the aftermath of a tragic event, that will influence how you answer questions on the day after it happened. But after another three days of campaigning we’ll be back to ‘normal’ on Thursday, with the number of people actually changing their votes because of the murder absolutely minuscule.

  23. I have never posted here before though I am a regular reader of this blog. I am surprised that there have been no comparisons made with the two Québec independence referenda of 1980 (lost 60% to 40%) and 1995 (lost 50.5% to 49.5%). In fact the second vote was so traumatic and Premier Jacques Parizeau’s confession speech so bitter, blaming ‘money and ethnic votes’ that no one has wanted to go through it again; and the mere whiff of a possible further referendum at the last provincial election saw the nationalist Parti Québécois suffer their worst defeat in 40 years.

    There may be zealots who want to rerun this horrible campaign again in the event of a narrow remain win, but will the electorate at large see them as anything other than sore losers and give them a drubbing?

  24. There’s definitely been evidence of the ‘swingback’ that was widely predicted, how much of that is attributable to last week’s tragedy is difficult to gauge.

    But, the campaigning starts again today, and it remains a fact that the Remain camp are offering no clear positive message, and there is very little affection for the EU, even amongst those who prefer to stay in.

    The Leave campaign will be launching a barrage of media ads, posters and social media initiatives in these last four days, and the positive message will be that June 23 is Independence Day – Yes We Can, as some American once said.

    So it will be interesting when the final polls come out on Wednesday, to see if there’s any evidence of ‘reverse swing’.

  25. Status Quo
    If Remain wins, that really is Remain as no steps will be taken to leave or do anything but stay with the changing EU.
    If Leave wins, there are many steps to be taken to decide how this shall be done. Don’t expect Article 50 to be invoked on Friday. Some of the rumoured EU changes will (or won’t) happen soon. Announcements can’t be delayed forever.
    The only certain way to leave is to elect a government determined to do it.
    A pox on fixed term parliaments. We need root and branch reform.

    I do not understand how people who believe that our government leaders are lying through their teeth can possibly vote for the status quo. Do you think the EU Commissioners are better?

  26. thank you roger mexico for some clarity and sanity
    the shift back to remain looks as if this is as predicted a basic inclination of voters for the status quo reasserting itself

  27. From my point of view I think they should extend the release of polls ban to the full week before an election as this election depends on so so many different factors as its so close it makes a lot of these polls totally worthless.. Factors I think will decide it:

    1) labour working class- polls show a 70:30 split for labour voters but that just doesn’t seem to be right… Is this because most of their WWC voters now class themselves as UKIP or is it polls getting it wrong? I would think a 60:40 to remain seems more likely.
    2) Shy voters.. No one really knows which side are less likely to state their vote to pollsters so no one knows how to factor this in.. My gut says after the past 4 days of coverage people anti immigration and pro leave are likely to be quieter and may be underestimated but who knows.
    3) Age and turnout vs class and turnout- over 55 are much more likely to vote and much more likely to vote leave. On the other hand AB classes are more likely to vote and vote remain.. Which will prevail or will they both cancel each other out? Polls have consistently shown that leavers are more passionate but does that give them a few more points on the day or will turnout be so high it doesn’t matter.
    4) How many ex-pats voted and how- no one knows how many actually voted or indeed how they voted. I would assume that on balance this group is more pro remain but how many actually bothered to vote. People have been commenting on how Gibralter could swing it but that’s a load of rubbish 20k isn’t going to be the decider but the ex-pat vote could be.
    5) Northern Ireland- people have long being suggesting a 70:30 remain vote and recently scaled that back to 65:35.. Will this hold or will the endorsements recently of senior UUP leaders for leave swing some more unionist votes to leave. I believe in the end this will split down the usual lines with unionists for leave and nationalists for remain. There will likely be a little more for remain as the alliance party vote for it and some unionists will still go for remain so could end up 55:45 or there abouts

    There are a million other factors at play here including the fact 20ish percent of votes have already been cast so can’t change and will everyone answering polls actually be registered? But just wanted to outline why no one can really know the outcome and why it’s such an exciting election..

    I will be ignoring the polls and looking forward to the actual results in 4 and a bit days time.

  28. Couper2802
    “Seriously is this any way to conduct a referendum on whether Britain should be part of the EU?” No it is not. Well said. Far too much hate and bile.
    ‘ Not everyone that votes Leave is a racist but every racist will vote Leave’
    Does that include Scottish racists who don’t like Sassenach’s?
    I’m sure there are other examples. Mine may be a null set.

  29. “Whatever the outcome I just hope we can come together and heal. This campaign has bought out the very worst in us.”

    I suspect this very much depends on what Brussels does next.

    It is unquestionable that discussions on contentious issues have been delayed until after the vote, but that doesn’t in itself mean that such issues will be negative in the eyes of UK voters. From what I gather, the two main area that are being withheld – defence and direct funding options – are discussion areas only. Options will be floated, and the UK press can have a field day reporting options as facts. What the actual facts turn out to be once the proposals have been discussed remains to be seen.

    However, there are plenty of noises from within the commission that the movement towards integration must go on. Set against that, Donald Tusk issued a barely coded broadside against the commission, arguing that the blind federalism that has gripped Brussels is becoming an undemocratic and destabilising force within the union.

    These battles are of the utmost significance to our choice, but sadly have been drowned out by the dreadful campaign on either side.

    How the EU behaves, and how effective the UK government is in building an alliance to support the views of people like Tusk, are going to be the critical determinants for the future of UK politics on this issue. An emboldened leave campaign is vastly strengthened, and deeply suspicious. Elements within the EU do not appear to understand what is happening, both in the UK and elsewhere.

    My guess remains that the internal stresses carved into the EU treaties are going to become too great, and it’s failures will overtime overbalance it’s successes – unless there is radical and dramatic reform. A remain vote means this wonn’t happen in all likelihood, and then again, without the UK, a leave vote probably would mean the critical mass to force through such change would also be lost, with deeper integration the preferred response to prevent any further exits.

    Either way, the future of the EU remains troubled, and the impact on the tone and quality of UK debate will stay heavily negative in my view, I am sorry to say.

  30. Alec

    Thanks for a very sensible post, as you know i am more sanguine about the EU’s chances than even your pessimistic view but what you say mirrors much of my own thinking.

  31. Sad times. Seems that the UK has lost its independence. Cameron, however disgusting, seems to be speaking a reality the Leave campaigners are unwilling to face.

  32. @dave, I saw that horrid garbage soundbite from Billy Bragg.

  33. Couper2802
    “2. The referendum wont settle it – if Remain win Leave will always believe the vote was won because of the murder and Remain using the murder to tarnish the Leave campaign.”

    It certainly won’t be for lack of trying on the part of the Remain camp – the likes of the Guardian went all out in the aftermath of the murder to try and lay the blame on Nigel Farage and the Leave campaign for having the temerity to exist. Absolute gutter press behaviour. if the Graun were a member of IPSO I would have lodged a formal complaint.

    Of course, not many Guardian readers are likely to vote Leave, so the above behaviour is likely to reinforce existing prejudices rather than changing many votes.

    On the other hand, the result has always looked like being very narrow (probably a narrow win for Remain) which would lead to bitter acrimony even without any murders. Possibly the worst outcome would be for England and Wales to vote very narrowly Out, but the UK then swung to In by Scotland and NI. If that happens I advise stocking up on popcorn.

  34. Interesting to see the emotional tone of pro-Brexit posts changing here, from mutual back-slapping a few days ago to get-your-recriminations-in-early sentiments now.

    I don’t know if that has any validity as a predictor, but it does seem to suggest an acceptance that there has been a fundamental shift in perceptions.

    The more we see Rich using the word “garbage” the better I feel about the prospects for Remain.

  35. I occasionally read here with interest and would like to thank many of the contributor for a very informative discussion (in the main). Don’t post, but here goes nothing…

    I think something has changed. I don’t think it’s about

  36. TOH: Glad to hear you’re optimistic about prospects for the EU. Welcome to the bright side!

    (Either that or you need to check the meaning of ‘sanguine’ – OED: Optimistic or positive, especially in an apparently bad or difficult situation)

  37. Billy Bragg?

    He say:

    “The real enemy is not conservatism. It is cynicism. And not the cynicism of the Daily Mail – that’s their job, that’s what they do – it’s our own cynicism. And we have to fight that as best we can. There is a shedload of it on the internet. Every time you stick your head above the turret, there are always people throwing stuff at you. But in my experience the only real antidote to cynicism is activism. I do what I can to push that along. A lot of it has to do with accountability and the big idea in the 21st century will be: how do we hold the bastards to account. You can fill in your own bastards.”

  38. Yep Billy Bragg,

    Thank goodness the sort of candidates who represent his extreme views tend to lose their deposits.

  39. Good Morning All after half marathon practice on the Beach here.

    I had a thought.

    UKIP’s threat to Labour is huge, I think, unless the post Referendum Labour Party addresses the concerns of the people who voted Labour in 2015 and many of the UKIP 2015 voters.

    I think that it is not an impossible scenario that Labour’s decline outside liberal London and associated centres such asfOxford, Norwich, Exeter and Hove, will continue

  40. As I see the problem, we have two polarised perspectives that are coming out in regard to immigration rhetoric:
    – there is a perspective that simply can’t accept that some of the Leave rhetoric is xenophobic; ‘immigration will mean British women will be assaulted as happened in Cologne’, or ‘immigrants are taking your jobs’ are straightforward appeals to xenophobia. They are statements clearly designed to appeal directly to racist and xenophobic sentiment.
    – there is a perspective of some on what I would characterise as the establishment left – who are typically passionate Remainers – that simply can’t accept ANY concern or issue around immigration being raised without labelling it racist and xenophobic. Discussion is shut down regardless of the reality.

    Our government needs to get its act together to address the specific issues raised by immigration where they are real, and our populist politicians and newspapers need to stop making up lies about immigration impacts that simply don’t exist, and using openly xenophobic language to do so.

    My huge concern is that whichever side wins, nothing will be done to address the real, underlying issues, which are complex and need well-thought through, long-term and practical solutions.
    Nor will the xenophobes shut up any time soon – they are too fond of the sound of their own voices…

  41. @MrNameless

    You realise that most non-Labour voters won’t even turnout?

    The result will be meaningless.

    Also, I predict more people will stand.

  42. Remain shouldn’t look to NI for too much help. Of all the NI fans I’ve met at the Euros in the last week (warning: small group size Anecdote ahead) not one of them said they were voting Remain. Granted they are mostly pro-Union but still surprised not to find any Remainers from amongst the status quo community.

  43. @ Chris Lane (re UKIP)

    To me, it is remarkable how little support UKIP has gained from all the focus on its defining issue. Its results in the May were underwhelming, with only 12% of the vote in the English council elections, and only a few dozen council seats gained. And the polls are showing them just a point or two higher (on average) then where they were at last year’s GE.

  44. All to play for for both camps.

  45. Thomas-

    Totally agree with you, I fully expect tribal loyalties to reassert themselves in Northern Ireland on Thursday and the unionist vote will go leave and nationalist remain.. There is a slight advantage to remain in as much as the alliance party will vote that way but the 70:30 splits some have mentioned are ridiculous.. I am expecting a 55:45 to remain at best..

    People have talked about NI adding 1% to the overall remain lead but this just isn’t going to happen will be more likely 0.25 max

  46. Before the death I gave leave a small chance, Now I give them zero chance of winning. I see swing coming from this. So many of my friends have changed from leave or don’t knows to remain afterwards. It will give remain at least an extra 5% maybe even up to 10%

    It has changed everything once people decide to remain they will also change there view on the finance question thats why the big change there. I thought remain would win before this now im going for remain over 60% and up to 65%

    I believe the bookies over the polls tho have the bookies been wrong in recent years on a major vote with such short odds for a favourite?

  47. On a general point as a “Labour supporter” (that is a “working class” member of the public who by personal inclination but in common with the community around me almost always vote for the Labour party) I’m always intrigued/bewildered and downright bemused by the recent narrative in news broadcasts and on forums like this about “us” as somehow the responsibility of or foot soldiers for the Labour Party itself.

    All this talk of “Labour needs to get its supporters out” “this is bad for labour” “its the labour vote which will swing it” “Labour faces a backlash in its heartlands for supporting remain” etc etc strikes me, as one of the people under discussion, as utter nonsense which presumably represents wishful thinking by people of an alternative political tribe.

    A “Labour supporter” is someone who prefers a Labour government. On a specific non-partisan/cross party issue outside of voting for a government the term is meaningless. I doubt very many people in my world make any association between the Labour party and the remain/pro EU campaign at all, much less to the extent of shaking our fists at “abandoning us” because we’re all keen to leave the EU! All the to-ing an fro-ing on the subject of Europe has been between two brands of conservative. Certainly Labour doesn’t need and has no power to get “us” out since we don’t work for the Labour party. People who are actively involved in party politics are the tiniest percentage of the population.

    I have a brother who will vote leave, in an election for a parliamentary representative he would vote for Labour. There is no conflict in him or anyone else I’m aware of at all.

    I’m sure absolutely all of the above applies to “conservative supporters” too, (though for some reason the idea that the Conservative party needs to “get its supporters out” doesn’t seem to get a mention. )

    On the wider issue of Labour vs UKIP. I’ve no doubt there is a “working class” section of hte public that are more shaped, shall we say, by Express and Mail headlines about migrant numbers as a pressing threat to all they know , than other demographics and that, rising to the top of their priorities, this will attract them in the way other popular-nationalist movements that come and go have done. But the kind of people who are so drawn are not necessarily the kind of people who actively participate in the electoral process. Finally of course there are and always have been working class (if that’s what “labour supporter” is a euphemism for) conservatives. Not surprisingly they never voted labour anyway so can hardly be lost to them.

    All I can say is I live in a district of Liverpool – a perceived Labour heartland – I fit the definition of “working class”, have no university degree, as a full time carer am both dependent on the welfare state and a frequent user of the NHS – and yet contrary to the narrative of many people on here and wider political forums I see absolutely nowhere around me people being or feeling overwhelmed by migrants, declaring their allegiance to UKIP or giving the slightest toss about the EU either way.

    There is in my wider neighborhood not one leave or remain poster to be be seen, or any political posters come to that. Bar one. In the post office on an old fashioned ad board where people pin their postcards advertising their services or looking for lost cats, there is a single, yellowing post, curling at the edges and left over from the last election. “Thank You For Voting UKIP” it says. But as far as any actual results show, no one did.

  48. “A lot of it has to do with accountability and the big idea in the 21st century will be: how do we hold the bastards to account. You can fill in your own bastards.”

    Not quite sure if this is quite what Billy Bragg meant, but ‘Brussels’ would be a good fit here in the minds of many. Accountability is a central issue in this debate, as he says.

  49. @ LMZ

    I’d like to see you put your money where your mouth is and put a big bet on Remain @ 65%. Wishful thinking on your part.

  50. If some people really are voting remain because of Jo Cox’s murder, they must be only slightly less mad than the individual who killed her.
    I am not making a point about remain or leave, but to be guided by a mindless, senseless act of extreme violence, is utterly crazy.

    I am a devout leaver and have been for years, however, a right wing Tory MP getting holes blown in his person by a madman, would not make me vote remain. or encourage even stronger support for leave.
    Very mentally sick people should not be responsible for voting intention.

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