Comments on: YouGov April Poll

By: Harry Scott-Parker

Harry Scott-Parker — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 21:57:34 +0000

In response to Anthony Wells, the Plymouth analyses are not based on things like that, merely recent council by-election results, so I would have to disagree with you on the Prescott scandal affecting their analysis. However, I do think their prediction this year is pretty sound, last year I fell off my chair laughing at it so that’s something at least.

By: Patrick O'Connor

Patrick O'Connor — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 18:06:49 +0000

Andy Stidwell,I can distinctly remember local election night 1989.
The BBC poll was stated to represent a swing of 8% from 1987-as the Tories won by 11.8% in 1987,this would have meant a Labour lead of 4%.Also,I remember the extroploation into 12 marginal seats the BBC used that night (at that stage they did not go throuhgout every seat on a computer)- the result would have been a Labour overall majority of 4,with Southampton Test,30 miles from me in Bournemouth going from Tory-Labour.
Even as an 18 year-old student,full of naive optimism,I was underwhelmed (as a Labour supporter),that the outcome would be so modest.
I wil be extroplating this Thursday night with keen fervour,using the excellent updated boundaries/marginaols links on this site!
(As a Labourite,I feel excused to planning to having a bottle of spirits ready to steady my nerves as the inevitable Labour pounding occurs! lol )

By: Andy D

Andy D — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 17:16:31 +0000

JJB, I don’t have the figures for the 1961 local elections either, but a Gallup poll was showing Tories 44.5%, Labour 40.5%, Liberals 14%.
Labour didn’t overtake the Tories until August of that year, but they still managed to narrowly win the 1964 general election.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 16:47:57 +0000

When considering the Plymouth analysis from last year, it’s worth remembering that after R&T had made their predictions Labour was suddenly embroiled in the foreign prisoner release scandal, Prescott’s affair and Patricia Hewitt saying it was the best year ever for the NHS. If all those things hadn’t combined together in the last fortnight of the election campaign then perhaps R&T’s prediction would have been more accurate. As it is, you can hardly blame them for not predicting it!

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 16:32:42 +0000

JJB, I was referring to opinion polls, not the projected share from local elections.

The interesting thing about the 1989 opinion polls is that until May that year, the 2 main parties were fairly level; but from June onwards, the Labour party had a lead of close to 10%, which continued to be fairly large until John Major replaced Thatcher in November 1990.

Therefore, I was slightly wrong in what I said, since things started to go wrong for the previous Tory government after 10 years and 1 month, not 10 years exactly.