Opinium’s weekly poll for the Observer has topline figures of REMAIN 44%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), so split right down the middle. The fieldwork was conducted between Tuesday and Friday, but the majority was before the murder of Jo Cox. Full tabs are here.

This isn’t Opinium’s final poll of the campaign – they’ve got one more to come on Wednesday. Still to come tonight there is also a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. There’s also a ComRes online poll for the Indy and Sunday People, but it doesn’t include EU voting intention (it’s online, and ComRes only do EU voting intention on their phone polls).

UPDATE: There is also new Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. In this case the fieldwork was conducted on Friday and Saturday, so took place wholly after the death of Jo Cox. Topline figures, with changes since Survation’s midweek poll, are REMAIN 45%(+3), LEAVE 42%(-3) – so Remain are back in the lead after dropping behind in the week. Interesting, but it is as yet only one poll…

UPDATE2: There is a new YouGov poll (one of two tonight) for ITV. Topline figures are REMAIN 42%(+3), LEAVE 44%(-2). Like Survation the poll shows a swing back towards Remain, but unlike Survation this poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, wholly before the attack on Jo Cox, suggesting that there may have been a swing back towards Remain anyway. There is a second YouGov poll out later tonight for the Sunday Times, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday…


117 Responses to “Latest Opinium, Survation and YouGov EU polls”

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  1. The Opinium 44-44 poll is encouraging for the REMAIN camp, as, experts say, there is a tendency to get “swingback” in the immediate run up to the Referendum itself.

  2. Anthony.
    Thank you.
    Time yet for REMAIN to win; my gut reaction is for REMAIN to have nose in front at the end; 52% to 48%.
    Just a feel for the conservative (status quo ante) habits of voters.

    There is also a Party Poll out, with Cons on 34, Lab on 29, UKIP on 18 and Lib Dems on 8- high for them, I think.

  3. Everything to play for.

  4. The last Opinium poll had Remain ahead 2%.

  5. Good for remain I would say, with swing back etc.

  6. RICH.
    I think that many Brexit supporters will be relieved if REMAIN wins.

  7. I am not sure the YouGov one is waiting up for as it is an online poll.

    Also YouGov made a Horlicks of the Scottish Referendum polls.

  8. Seems to me that anyone saying a gain by Leave of 2 points to 44% is good news for Remain is making ‘wishful’ comments.

    One thing it most definitely is not is sign of a ‘swing back’ to Remain who stayed level with their last poll at 44%. Best that can be said for Remain is that they haven’t lost support according to this poll.

  9. @ Rich so the most pro remain online poll has shifted another 2 points to Leave – this co showed a 4 point remain lead a month ago and has since changed the methodology which has reduced the lead share (reduced gap by 5 points I believe ) – I cant see any snap back. What are you seeing that makes you so confident? So 1 month shift 9 points like with like and 2 points this week. The long awaited snap back so far seems somewhat elusive. but perhaps I am missing something?

  10. This Opinium poll does show movement to Leave, but not on anything like the scale that we’ve seen from other recent polls.

    Opinium did 4 online polls in Feb-May when the EURef polls overall showed around an average of a 3-4 point Remain lead. They changed their methodology in late May, and this resulted in a 5-point net difference in their headline result (so what would have been a Leave lead of 3 became a Remain lead of 2).

  11. TSE of PB has noted that there is a distinct difference between the emotional responses on ComRes in regard to Leave/Remain pre & post the news about Jo Cox breaking.

    “Across all factors reaction to a Leave vote is more negative post. Correspondingly, across all factors reaction to a Remain vote is more positive post.”

    Such responses may not last beyond the initial shock, and may not translate into voting decisions – but worth noting.

  12. @zippy,

    I actually want leave to win! Am just assuming some swingback if level now, especially with a lot of biased media commentators trying to tarnish brexit after all that’s happened.

  13. I think – think, not want – a clear Remain victory.

    I remember Clegmania. Big shift in polls, disappears on polling day. Opinions are not so easily shifted. The polls over the last years have been for remain. That means that a lot of people have to vote leave against a long held opinion. Of course, some of those would have held those opinions shallowly… But even so, it is a mountain for leave to climb. And why they should have bided their time.

  14. @RICH
    Tarnish Brexit? They were never very shiny. You can’t ‘tarnish’ the reputation of anyone who is prepared to campaign stood in front of a copy of a Leni Riefenstahl hoarding.

  15. I meant to say that those 4 Opinium polls in Feb-May averaged as a dead heat. So this poll does show a movement to Leave from that time, but only by a 2.5 point swing ( reflecting Opinium’s change of methodology).

  16. Just a side thought on tongight’s ComRes poll – but Tories fighting a savage, destructive civil war with wall-to-wall media coverage; but still leading Westminster VI by 5 points. At some time the penny has to drop with the mainstream of Labour’s current membership, surely?

  17. @ Rich

    fair enough.

    re the betting market. I first used this site back in 2010 at the time I was convinced that Cons would win outright as the betting market was saying so. One of the bloggers tried to explain why I was wrong and I was having none of it. I am pretty sure they were LD and were very negative v polls and the betting market re the prospects for the LD’s. on election night I ate humble pie and ‘congratulated’ him/her for their wisdom – although I suspect they would have preferred to have been wrong, at least regarding the LD’s. In the 2015 election I had a £50 quid bet at odds of 6 to 1 on the Cons getting a majority – 30 minutes AFTER the exit poll was released showing the shock prediction.

    I work in the financial markets and had previously expected arbitrage to take place in the betting for political markets. I have so far seen absolutely no evidence whatsoever that any such thing takes place.

    I would also note that so far Betfair has matched £36.5m on the referendum outcome and £12m on the outcome of tonights Portugal v Austria game! I am astonished that people continue to look at the betting market for guidance. I have no evidence but I suggest that consulting your tealeaves tomorrow morning may give better guidance.

  18. Just an observation about betting odds. On Oddschecker (best available odds) they are now precisely where they were on 1 April: Leave 15/8 against, Remain 4/9 on.
    They moved sharply in favour of remain during May, peaking at 2/11 on with leave at 4/1 against on 25th May.
    They then moved strongly in the other direction so that a few days ago we had 6/4 against (leave) and 4/7 on (remain) and it seemed in another couple of days we’d have parity.
    There has been a strong movement back towards remain starting before the horrible murder but perhaps reinforced by it. Who knows?

  19. Ah, perfect timing!
    Now where did I put those tealeaves?

  20. Remain: 45% (+3)
    Leave: 42% (-3)

    Survation, phone / 17 – 18 Jun)

  21. @zippy,

    What’s your gut feel? I honestly thought leave had an outside chance before the events of Friday?

  22. Via Britain Elects EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 45% (+3)
    Leave: 42% (-3)
    (via Survation, phone / 17 – 18 Jun)

  23. RICH.
    I had the same thoughts as you have had about the outcome.

    I know we are not normally allowed to be partisan, but I share this:

    From an Old Labour Family, I will stay clear of being in the same metaphorical or actual room as the far right and far left; so could not vote for BREXIT or for Corbyn, who has many far left associates.

  24. Smaller swing than I would have expected in a phone poll where those being asked are of course thinking they do not want to give a bad impression to the person on the other end of the phone. (Shy Leave supports were why there earlier was such discrepancy between phone and online polls.)

    Of course such a small swing will also be dissipated by the fact that PV are going to be affected much less as many had already been sent in.

  25. Bill

    Votes that have already been cast will be unaffected by poll changes.

    Thanks – but I suspect we all knew that.

  26. I wonder what percentage of Leave voters are really just protesting and will swing back to Remain when it comes down to the crunch?

    A close vote will certainly strengthen the UKs hand in any future negotiations on things like the CAP, immigration and Thatcher’s rebate.

  27. Bill

    Just to note that if the sample is representative then it will already cover a proportion of people with postal votes, who would presumably report how they have voted. So it’s not obvious why there would be any need for any further correction to the reported overall VI figures to account for postal voting.

  28. The Remain camp will be reassured by the Survation poll which places them ahead, given that experts expect a significant degree of swing back in the 24 hrs or so before the voting.

  29. Prof Howard

    “experts expect ”

    But remember that Brexiters don’t trust experts (or anyone else).:-)

    As far as polling in the referendum is concerned – I’m not sure I do either!

  30. OLD NAT.
    Naughty

  31. Do we know how many postal votes were sent in before the tragedy?

  32. This referendum was already a difficult one to predict. But in light of recent events surely it is now nigh on impossible when the polls are so close.

    If though it turns out a minor win for remain, influenced by sentimentality and an all-be-it gently manipulative media and establishment then it would be a very dissatisfactory one.

  33. Lots of wishful thinking here from Leave surely? I have a hunch, and it’s only a hunch, that with swing back and margins of error etc, Remove would need a clear 8-12 lead in the polls to win and that isn’t happening. I’ m not voting myself as a protest but would kind of like leave to win on a gut level!

  34. Chris ane

    Yeah. I know. I should just trust the experts. :-)

  35. Rumours on twitter of Yougov poll tonight with Leave leading 44-42 is it confirmed

  36. Reported by Britain Elects:

    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 42% (+3)
    Leave: 44% (-2)
    (via YouGov, online / 15 – 16 Jun)
    Changes from 12 – 13 Jun

  37. Via Britain Elects EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 42% (+3)
    Leave: 44% (-2)
    (via YouGov, online / 15 – 16 Jun)
    Chgs. from 12 – 13 Jun

  38. MUDDY WATERS

    Just a side thought on tongight’s ComRes poll – but Tories fighting a savage, destructive civil war with wall-to-wall media coverage; but still leading Westminster VI by 5 points. At some time the penny has to drop with the mainstream of Labour’s current membership, surely?

    You’ve got to remember that the online ComRes polls have always been the most unfriendly to Labour since the last election. They do a variety of ‘turnout weighting’ to the initial weighted figures that produce a very different result. But if you look at the tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Sunday-People-Independent_Political-Poll_June-2016-33014.pdf#page=12

    you can calculate that this changed a Lab lead of 3 points to a Con one of 5:

    Con 34% (-2) [31]

    Lab 29% (-1) [34]

    LD 8% (NC) [6]

    UKIP 19% (+2) [20]

    Green 4% (NC) [4]

    SNP 5% (NC) [5]

    Other 1% (NC) [1]

    where [] are the percentages after eliminating those who Don’t know or would rather not say[1]. ComRes them ask various squeeze questions and apply their secret recipe of herbs and spices.

    Of course this may be perfectly valid and to some extent they are trying to forecast how these people would vote at the next election rather than accept uncertain feelings as of today. But it clearly makes a difference.

    Having said that, one of the odd things is that normal political movement seems to have been suspended over the campaign. Otherwise we would presumably have seen a big swing from Con to UKIP is nothing else. Voters seem to have suspended judgement till Friday at least.

    [1] The figures are also before expressed likelihood to vote calculation but this would make little difference to the leads as the mean LTV is very similar for Con (9.45) and Lab (9.44).

  39. Muddy

    Snap!

  40. ComRes showing a big swing to Remain. Up 9 points. They day it is very much to do with the Jo Cox factor.

  41. I think that YouGov poll is encouraging for the Remain camp.

  42. Is it true theres a second Yougov poll out tomorrow? Will we get it tonight and are the questions the same?

  43. I wonder if it is too soon to be getting swingback?

    I believe the experts usually think that is something you get in the last 24 hours.

  44. Where are you seeing the ComRes poll?

  45. Roger M

    I’m delighted to have provoked one of your excellent tutorials in polling methodology (really, I am). Thank you.

    I hadn’t realised that ComRes adjustments were quite on that scale. Significant shift. Maybe enough for some in Labour to think things aren’t so bad after all. I’m not one of them. Even +3 points strikes me as pretty dire – even allowing for the unusual context.

  46. I don’t necessarily trust experts but in this case I do because they have studied the patterns as part of their job.

  47. Oldnat

    Yeah, I thought it was time you had some competition!

  48. Given the post-murder polls, I actually have some sympathy for the decent Brit Nat campaigners like Tom Harris.

    While I disagreed with them, they eschewed the nasty immigration aspect and campaigned on constitutional, not “othering” issues.

    When the first news of them attack emerged, my initial fear was that this might be some “crazed immigrant” attacking a Leave supporting MP, because it was obvious how that would be used.

    If those who have used hate of others as the basis for their campaigning are defeated, I will be delighted.

    It’s a bit hard that decent constitutional questions have been obscured by the immigrant issue – but the decent Brexiteers could have distanced themselves from that, and (as far as I know) chose not to.

  49. @ Roger.

    The fact the Tories are 5 points clear of Labour after conducting a civil war is staggering. Labour should be twenty points clear so yes alarm bells should be ringing.
    I do think though that Labour have a huge amount of ammunition to use at the next General Election.

    I shall be very glad when this referendum is over. It has been shameful.

  50. I did not mean to imply that posters did not understand but please, hold your horses here, I posted knowing that this site and the comments will also be read by many non-members who come here for an insight into what is actually indicated by the polls. (I know I did previously.)

    As it is if someone has already voted by PV then that should be indicated in the polls for they are not only ‘definitely will vote’ (which means extremely likely to vote in reality) but have voted which is by far more certain as the act is done. Further I have not seen (to my redollection) any pollster saying how they deal with those who have already voted by post. Surely this should be addressed by all pollsters so that interpretation of the results can be compared. (Please do correct me if I am mistaken here, which I may well be, and if so I would like to be corrected.)

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