Opinium’s weekly poll for the Observer has topline figures of REMAIN 44%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), so split right down the middle. The fieldwork was conducted between Tuesday and Friday, but the majority was before the murder of Jo Cox. Full tabs are here.

This isn’t Opinium’s final poll of the campaign – they’ve got one more to come on Wednesday. Still to come tonight there is also a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. There’s also a ComRes online poll for the Indy and Sunday People, but it doesn’t include EU voting intention (it’s online, and ComRes only do EU voting intention on their phone polls).

UPDATE: There is also new Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. In this case the fieldwork was conducted on Friday and Saturday, so took place wholly after the death of Jo Cox. Topline figures, with changes since Survation’s midweek poll, are REMAIN 45%(+3), LEAVE 42%(-3) – so Remain are back in the lead after dropping behind in the week. Interesting, but it is as yet only one poll…

UPDATE2: There is a new YouGov poll (one of two tonight) for ITV. Topline figures are REMAIN 42%(+3), LEAVE 44%(-2). Like Survation the poll shows a swing back towards Remain, but unlike Survation this poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, wholly before the attack on Jo Cox, suggesting that there may have been a swing back towards Remain anyway. There is a second YouGov poll out later tonight for the Sunday Times, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday…


117 Responses to “Latest Opinium, Survation and YouGov EU polls”

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  1. @Pete B

    I am unaware that Burnham has failed to become Labour’s mayoral candidate. You are jumping the gun. I think he will be their candidate and will end up as the mayor next May

  2. Accepting the usual warnings re cross breaks – 12-13th June YouGov poll showing 7 point leave lead had labour break 55-35 for remain, todays 1 point remain leave poll shows labour break 63-26. Would it be fair to say that the most likely place to find a move in the polls from Jo Cox’s murder would be in the Labour vote?

  3. Zippy

    Not necessarily. I think it may have made the ‘dont knows’ more inclined to vote Remain and they may come from varied political backgrounds.
    It would have helped the Remain campaign no end to have had the likes of Jo Cox engaging in political debate on a national level rather than the likes of Cameron,Osborne and Eagle all of whom have been disastrous.

  4. Mikey
    http://order-order.com/page/5/

    It’s a bit of a way down the page. I may have misunderstood the inner workings of the Labour Party.

  5. @Pete B

    Just because some locals want their local candidate to be Labour’s mayoral candidate does not mean Burnham won’t get the gig. As for coming last in the hustings I’m not quite sure what they are referring to. Wishful thinking on their part I suspect

  6. With the campaign rightly off TV for the last few days Vote Leave haven’t been able to make hay with the Medicine sans frontier and the EU wide tax stories, that ends tomorrow and while Jo Cox’s murder is tragic it isn’t going to change the outcome of the referendum half as much as the idea that half of africa and Afghanistan are about to be given visa free travel negotiated in secret and that the EU is looking for ways to subvert national controls over its budget.

    Leave will win by no less than 4%, and you can take that to the bank, or bookies if you prefere.

  7. I posted a few messages on here in the run up to the last election, and was a big advocate for using bookmaker odds as a good indication of the result.

    If you remember correctly – polls had the last election basically neck and neck but the betting always had the Tories comfortably ahead.

    Many on here point blank refused to accept that this was reliable, coming up with all sorts of nonsensical justification as to why the markets were wrong.

    We all know what happened then. The same is true now. Recently there has been a big swing to Leave in the betting, but even throughout this swing – the big money (as in four figure sums) was still being put on Remain.

    Those willing to put their money where their mouth is have all been voting Remain. Please listen – they are not silly. There is only one way this referendum will go, and the markets tell you everything you need to know.

  8. Candy,
    The first significant shifts in the polls were for fieldwork 10th-13th June. The European championship started on the 10th and England played on the 11th. The English flags had been going up on houses pubs and cars several days before.
    We really don’t know what shifted the public mood and for me the football is just as plausible as that debate. Certainly if it was that debate it was not because of any reasoned arguments, more that it became obvious how the Tory party was tearing itself apart which put people in a “plague on all your houses” mood.. I met a Labour-leaning chap today who said he was thinking of voting leave to annoy David Cameron. Is that a reasoned appraisal of the issues??

  9. Geoff You are wrong. On the day of the General Election the bookies favoured a Labour minority Government as the most !likely outcome
    It was the shortest odds out there. It is true to say they gave much shorter odds on a Tory majority than a Labour one but that was hardly rocket science given what was going on in Scotland..

    The bookies are also reactive. They have lengthened the odds on Brexit tonight because of more favourable polls for Remain this evening and not because of punters laying down their cash. It has been happening almost instantaneously every time polls have been coming out.

  10. Mikey – 100% categorically wrong.

    I suggest you do an Internet search and come back and apologize.

    Also I would point out that at no point since the referendum was announced had LEAVE ever been the bookies favorite.

  11. GEOFF, did the bookies take into account the tories may well have cheated there way to win the last election?

  12. @Pete1
    “GEOFF, did the bookies take into account the tories may well have cheated there way to win the last election?”

    The bookies are ineffable, all-seeing, all-knowing

  13. My view on this is that LEAVE / REMAIN are battling now for the vote of c. 500,000 to 1,000.000 “soft” voters who’ll swing it one way or the other.

    Both sides have c. 45% solidly behind them.

    Not in the bag for either, all still to play for.

    If LEAVE already have a high % of postal’s in the bag, there may be less REMAIN can do than posters think.

  14. I tend to believe the bookies far more than the polls, I do believe the killing of Jo Cox has made a huge difference tho and a huge ammount of the swing will be from this, Without it I think leave had a small chance but now no chance at all.

    Have the bookies been wrong in a major election in the recent years? With such short odds on a favourite

  15. @ Geoff. I certainly won’t be apologising to you as I am right and you are wrong. I check the bookies odds on Oddschecker regular!y every day. On Polling day last year the shortest odds available were on a Labour minority Government.

    I agree with you latter point. The bookies have at no stage had Leave at shorter odds than Remain although the odds were close to converging prior to the murder of Jo Cox. They then started shortening the odds on Remain thereafter and did so again last night and this morning following more favourable Remain polling. They will only follow the money to an extent and will be closely monitoring polls.

  16. @ Geoff re Betting market GE 2015

    The betting market was totally wrong – I bet with one of the betting exchanges s the odds are always real time reflection of the betting market As I have said before I put decent amount of money on Con outright at 10.30 PM 30 mins AFTER the exit poll was published. I got SIX TO ONE ie 6 pounds back for every 1 pound bet plus the stake back. Once the surprise exit poll had been published the odds of a outright Con win fell a little to the 6 – 1 level that I bet on. I continued to put more bets on a Conservative outright win throughout the evening as the first results came in. The Betting market was totally inefficient that night and the same goes for the 2010 GE.

  17. Spot on Zippy. The bookies had no idea there was going to be a Con majority.

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