BMG were supposed to put out their final EU poll yesterday, but it was put back for a day because of the murder of Jo Cox and eventually emerged this morning. BMG carried out parallel telephone and online polls, and unlike ICM who no longer find any difference at at in their dual-mode experiments, BMG continue to find a big gulf:

  • In their online poll BMG found topline figures of REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 51%, Don’t know 9%. Like other recent polls this reflected a big shift towards leave, with remain down by 2 points, Leave up by 6 points
  • In their telephone poll BMG found a small lead for Remain – REMAIN 46%, LEAVE 43%, Don’t know 11%

BMG also reallocated don’t knows based upon how they answered other EU questions in their phone survey, this produced final topline figures of Remain 53%, Leave 47%. Note that the fieldwork for the poll was conducted between the 10th-15th June, so wholly before the death of Jo Cox. Full details of the polls are here.

Secondly today we have a poll from Surveymonkey. Many readers will recognise Surveymonkey as a software platform for conducting surveys – the poll was conducted by randomly picking some of the people taking other Surveymonkey surveys and then directing them an EU survey – so very different from panel-based online surveys. Surveymonkey did the same at the general election with somewhat mixed results: their poll had the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour, so in that sense was far more accurate than other polls… but the reason was because they significantly underestimated both Conservative and Labour support, so actually had a larger average error than some other polls. Anyway, on the EU referendum they found topline figures of REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 48%, No answer 4%. Make of that what you will – full details are here. Fieldwork was between the 8th and 15th June, so again, before Jo Cox’s murder.

Third is a poll from a company called qriously, whom I have never previously heard of. As far as I can tell the poll was conducted by embedding survey questions in adverts on smartphone apps. The data is weighted by age, gender, region, past vote and education so is making an effort to produce representative results – the question is to what degree, if at all, the sampling method is capable of producing a representative sample, which we cannot really tell. Their poll between the 13th and 16th June found topline figures of REMAIN 40%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 9% – so more favourable towards Leave than any other polling. They also released figures for people interviewed on Friday morning after Jo Cox’s murder, which were REMAIN 32%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 16% – a significant movement from Remain to don’t know. I would treat these Friday figures with a lot of caution, it’s a method that is unproven in political polling, the shift from remain to don’t know doesn’t make much intuitive sense as a reaction to the murder, and most importantly, the fieldwork was only conducted on a weekday morning, which may itself skew the make up of the sample. I would strongly suggest waiting to see what other polls conducted after the murder show. Details of the polling are here.

Tonight we should get new figures from at least YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer, possibly others.


124 Responses to “Final BMG figures, and two more unusual polls…”

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  1. @Ashman
    ” In the long run EU is our most important customer, closer, easier to sell, and less risk, compared to the likes of India.”
    Really?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India
    ‘The Economy of India is the seventh-largest economy in the world measured by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) … India also topped the World Bank’s growth outlook for 2015-16 for the first time with the economy having grown 7.6% in 2015-16 and expected to grow 8.0%+ in 2016-17.
    India has the one of fastest growing service sectors in the world with annual growth rate of above 9% since 2001, which contributed to 57% of GDP in 2012-13.[40] India has become a major exporter of IT services, BPO services, and software services with $167.0 billion worth of service exports in 2013-14. It is also the fastest-growing part of the economy.
    India’s population is now over 1.3 billion and is, or soon will be, greater than that of China.
    India’s imports and exports are interesting, especially in relation to UK and Germany.
    India 2012’13 figures Imports $235B; exports $142B, Compare UK and $663B and $472B

    The EU has the world’s third largest population (508 million, about 440 million without the UK, out of a total European population of 742 million. ) GDP growth (with UK) is about 3%

    @R Huckle
    I suggest you edit your post to indicate which of your statements are opinions (not necessarily all down to you) and which are facts. All statements relating to the future are necessarily opinions, even if likely.
    Actually it would be easier if you indicated which statements are facts, or future certainties..

  2. Posters have been discussing the relative value of betting odds and opinion polls. There is a well-known story that if someone says to you “My word is my bond.” then you should ask for a bond, rather than a word.

    Was it Keynes who said that?

  3. ANTHONY WELLS
    Thank you for running this excellent site/resource and making it so easy to find all the published polls in one place.

  4. Dave: “” In the long run EU is our most important customer, closer, easier to sell, and less risk, compared to the likes of India.”
    Really?”

    Did you know that we export more to Ireland than to the combined 52 members of the Commonwealth (including, of course, India)?

    We may like to think there is a club of ex-empire fans of the old colonial master out there, just gagging to buy stuff from us. The reality is, time has moved on. If they don’t hate us, they view us as a busted flush with nothing much to offer. That’s fine, I have nothing against the Commonwealth which is a useful talking shop, but don’t pin our future on them.

  5. Enoch Powell played the immigration card (rivers of blood)
    The Brexit campaign has played the immigration card .

    Eveverything you say and do has an effect.

    RIP JO

    It’s all irrelevant now, in or out, go and vote on Thursday , the damage has been done.

  6. Russell Cennydd: “It’s all irrelevant now, in or out, go and vote on Thursday , the damage has been done.”

    It isn’t irrelevant. The vote on Thursday will determine the future of this country. Isolation or co-operation, that’s the choice.

  7. @roy

    I’m nor I sure I said anything to suggest otherwise than people should debate. I rather expect the no-platforming instincts of many will come to the fore if Remain wins.

    I have voted out. Unlike the Times, I don’t buy the “let’s get stuck in and lead Europe to a better place” line.

  8. PROFHOWARD
    “I think the BMG phone poll will be encouraging to the REMAIN camp.
    The swingback is to be expected to come along in a few day’s time”
    ………………………………………………………………………..
    You may be right.
    However if the swingback does not materialise, and indeed the swingaway materialises because all but the hardcore Remain just do not vote on the day, then I suggest pollsters get this analysis ready.
    1. Broadly Remain 24-7 claimed for weeks that there was a fire and we needed to (vote) or perish.
    Meanwhile some people were saying it was a false alarm.
    2. Then for whatever reason Remain said it was a false alarm and we could completely forget about it for several days as the poll approached.
    3. Then Remain said the fire was real and urgent but this time not many believed them enough to take the action they were insisting on. We just waited for the fire alarm to be switched off.
    …………………………………….
    Alternatively, there are different status quos for different age groups.
    Over 50 SQ is sovereign nation not in EU more focused on Southern Hemisphere than Europe especially the more East you go.
    Under 25 SQ is not to vote, not cool, but the people our age who do vote reckon that being in the EU is what they are voting, but they were all the swots at school who never got a C1 let alone a full C3 or C4. Would have voted but they would not let us use a smartphone to text it in. Apparently you can not vote on Facebook but you can post stuff saying you should be able to.
    ……………………………………..
    I think the polls giving Leave a lead in double figures are right. I have set hat eating thresh hold at not under 61 Leave but am going 70:30 because I thought Remain had to have 24-7 intense news management to get their latent soft voters out amid intense sport/music/cultural/ summerfilm marketing blockbuster competition. Any lull and petering out of the campaign is always going to damage Remain more IMHO than Leave.
    We will soon know.

  9. Sommerjohn
    We can’t take back our words, what’s done is done.
    If you’ve signed up to demonisation of people, regardless of their nationality, their race, their need, then nothing will change your opinion.
    Playing up to this section of society brings short – term success but impoverishes us as a country.

  10. Somerjohn
    “Isolation or co-operation, that’s the choice.”
    Yes, between isolation within EU or co-operation with the world.

    J S-B
    You make some interesting posts. I gather that you’re fairly young. For the benefit of me and perhaps other oldies can you explain this bit to me?
    “….but they were all the swots at school who never got a C1 let alone a full C3 or C4.”

    I don’t know what the C things are.

  11. @Roy

    Farage predicted ‘twenty million Romanians and Bulgarians waiting to come to Britain’ – this most definitely did NOT come to pass. In fact it illustrates perfectly his tendency to massive exaggeration and hyperbole.

  12. As far as the polls are concerned, if the SNP had used English immigration into Scotland as a reason for independence they would have been crucified, not only by the electorate, but also by the same people here who are so against EU migration into GB

    Racist!.

  13. And when whole villages in Welsh-speaking Wales are bought up as holiday homes by people from England , local people can’t afford a roof over their heads, and our culture and language is threatened, then those who speak out are “nasty nationalists”

  14. PETE B
    Not every school has the same system, but the most common Consequence System in schools is for each lesson.
    C1 first warning (can be for something very trivial)
    C2 second warning
    C3 Automatic detention after school the following day
    C4 Sending for senior leadership aka security for automatic exclusion, isolation for the day, meeting with parents and possible suspension from school.
    The reason I am against 16 year olds getting the vote is that (now they have to stay in education of some kind until aged 18) that they can be coerced by teachers who have a political point of view and do have real power over them both with C1.2.3.4 AND they assess in-house up to 60% of a GCSE in any subject.

  15. J S-B
    Thanks for the explanation. As far as I know I still hold my old school record of 13 detentions in one term. One of my few significant achievements.

  16. J-S-B,

    Speaking as a firm Remainer any poll that puts the two camps neck and neck after the depressing lemming run of the last week is encouraging!

  17. BTW if I could post pictures here I would share a photo of a hairdressers salon on Wakefield Road Huddersfield with a Union Flag, a European Flag and Remain poster in the upstairs window. That is a form of Nationalism I can relate to!

  18. J-S-B,
    Have you read/seen the Prime of Miss Jean Brodie?

  19. PETE B
    Bless you.

    ANDREW111
    I am not omniscient and you may be rejoicing next week.

    Everyone.
    If we had best of 3 referenda over June 2016, 17 and 18, pollsters would nail turnout and outcome. In 2016, just not that easy effectively in a vacuum of previous relevant data to measure against.

  20. ANDREW111
    Maggie Smith version of film.

  21. J-S-B

    Well, you will perhaps get some support for your viewpoint as she encouraged one of her pupils to join Franco in the Spanish Civil War. Who died, as I recall..

    I must say that my experience of 16 and 17 year olds is that they are exceedingly resistant to pressure from older people, including teachers! If it was good enough for the Scots, why not the rest of us? (like proportional representation…)

  22. joseph1832
    The point I am making is that the “Hate” part of “Hope not Hate” seems to be the message that they are conveying. The mob that turned up in Northampton were mostly dressed in black and many were wearing masks to hide their identity.
    Regardless of ones opinion of Farage and UKIP he should certainly be allowed to express a view, after all UKIP got more than 4 million votes at the last GE.
    bigfatron
    Farage did not say that 20 Million would come from Romania and Bulgaria, what he said was that 20 million now had the right to come and thousands would and that has turned out to be true.
    Just to put the record straight I and my wife will be voting out. Back in 1975 I voted no to joining and that was long before UKIP.

  23. Do Labour leaders read comments here? They certainly should watch last week’s Guardian video & John Harris’s comments of 17th June on Stoke. It might dawn on them that respect is a two way process: we’re not ignorant just exceedingly fed up with being ignored. Not racists, not xenophobes nor the dupes of newspapers or politicians. Parachuting in someone called Tristram to Stoke Central in 2010 was a measure of taking ‘solid’ Labour for granted. Just look at the statistics for the past 25 years decline in turnout and vote for the three Stoke seats and draw conclusions. Voter apathy might just come to an end on Thursday. Whichever way the vote goes then at least we might have been noticed for once. Hope this is ‘respectful’ enough and seen not as ‘language of hate’ but of exasperation.

  24. Okay prediction, 55 – 45 in favour of remain. Think there are a lot of shy remainers out there

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