BMG were supposed to put out their final EU poll yesterday, but it was put back for a day because of the murder of Jo Cox and eventually emerged this morning. BMG carried out parallel telephone and online polls, and unlike ICM who no longer find any difference at at in their dual-mode experiments, BMG continue to find a big gulf:

  • In their online poll BMG found topline figures of REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 51%, Don’t know 9%. Like other recent polls this reflected a big shift towards leave, with remain down by 2 points, Leave up by 6 points
  • In their telephone poll BMG found a small lead for Remain – REMAIN 46%, LEAVE 43%, Don’t know 11%

BMG also reallocated don’t knows based upon how they answered other EU questions in their phone survey, this produced final topline figures of Remain 53%, Leave 47%. Note that the fieldwork for the poll was conducted between the 10th-15th June, so wholly before the death of Jo Cox. Full details of the polls are here.

Secondly today we have a poll from Surveymonkey. Many readers will recognise Surveymonkey as a software platform for conducting surveys – the poll was conducted by randomly picking some of the people taking other Surveymonkey surveys and then directing them an EU survey – so very different from panel-based online surveys. Surveymonkey did the same at the general election with somewhat mixed results: their poll had the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour, so in that sense was far more accurate than other polls… but the reason was because they significantly underestimated both Conservative and Labour support, so actually had a larger average error than some other polls. Anyway, on the EU referendum they found topline figures of REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 48%, No answer 4%. Make of that what you will – full details are here. Fieldwork was between the 8th and 15th June, so again, before Jo Cox’s murder.

Third is a poll from a company called qriously, whom I have never previously heard of. As far as I can tell the poll was conducted by embedding survey questions in adverts on smartphone apps. The data is weighted by age, gender, region, past vote and education so is making an effort to produce representative results – the question is to what degree, if at all, the sampling method is capable of producing a representative sample, which we cannot really tell. Their poll between the 13th and 16th June found topline figures of REMAIN 40%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 9% – so more favourable towards Leave than any other polling. They also released figures for people interviewed on Friday morning after Jo Cox’s murder, which were REMAIN 32%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 16% – a significant movement from Remain to don’t know. I would treat these Friday figures with a lot of caution, it’s a method that is unproven in political polling, the shift from remain to don’t know doesn’t make much intuitive sense as a reaction to the murder, and most importantly, the fieldwork was only conducted on a weekday morning, which may itself skew the make up of the sample. I would strongly suggest waiting to see what other polls conducted after the murder show. Details of the polling are here.

Tonight we should get new figures from at least YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer, possibly others.


124 Responses to “Final BMG figures, and two more unusual polls…”

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  1. I think that remain has a good chance of winning, in spite of some unfavourable polls. Remain is well ahead on betting odds.

  2. Betting odds are driven by by who has the money to bet, and how much they are betting. Nothing more. They are priced to manage risk for the bookies, not a prediction of the result.

    Given the huge demographic split in favour of Remain towards wealthier demographics, the bettings odds are to be expected.

    Very interesting to see a new polling firm use smartphone ads within apps. Will be fascinating to see if this approach is in any way reliable (I have my doubts, but let’s see).

  3. Since we have a nice new thread here, I suggest we draw a line under previous comments and not make any comments that may be prejudicial to the fair trial of the person accused of the murder of Jo Cox. No further discussion of him or what you imagine to be his motives until the trial please.

  4. The weekday morning point on the app-based polling is interesting.

    How many ABC’1’s at work are going to sit at their desk at 10am answering an ad-linked survey from their phone?

    Well, perhaps me, but I’m fortunate enough to work from home and enjoy polls, so hardly typical!

  5. I wonder whether remain supporters are more shy about their likely vote, whereas leave supporters tend to be more vocal. Not sure polling will ever find out the shyness factor in voting, with even the probing questions about how definite people are with their voting, not really getting to an indication of a result outcome.

    Another point is that negative campaigning might not actually hit people until they are in the polling booth putting their cross on a ballot. If for weeks they have been told bad things will happen leaving the EU, they might just vote for the status quo to be on the safe side.

  6. @DRMIBBLES
    Others, myself included, have tried to get across on this polling site that bookies odds are not a poll. It looks as though we have to keep trying.

    The people who bet are a (large) sample from the population (not necessarily the electorate). To turn their “prediction” into a random sample, you need to know whether or not they are entitled to vote; weight them according to amount staked and weight the sample for not including those who never bet (or only bet on horses, or football pools etc).

    Having said all that, they are some sort of large sample, of folk sufficiently motivated about the referendum result to stake money on it, so it is not completely surprising that their ‘predictions’ may in the event be close to predicting the result.

  7. I think the BMG phone poll will be encouraging to the REMAIN camp.

    The swingback is to be expected to come along in a few day’s time.

  8. I’ve not posted since the Jo Cox murder as I couldn’t see any point in joining in the sort of debate that followed on here. Re these polls, I think they confirm what I’ve thought all along and posted quite early in the campaign. Firstly, Leave had a larger vote than early polls were crediting them with (this was subsequently proved by the poll movements) Secondly, polling a referendum rather than a GE is, I imagine, extremely difficult as it cuts across so many “given” party and demographic lines. However, I do respect the conventional wisdom that there is usually a late swing for the status quo so I’m not (as a Leaver) as optimistic of the result as I might be on the evidence of polls since early June.

  9. Confused by the point Drmibbles was making about Remain voters having more money than leave voters? People betting on the result will be mostly betting on what they think will happen not what they want to happen. This is particularly true of those betting larger sums of money! Reality is that if shrewd punters think LEAVE is under-backed then they will put money on until the price contacts. That has happened to the point where they see no further value. The implied probability of a Leave vote stands at around 33%.

  10. Sorry contracts*

  11. Reminds me of the Anna Lindh killing before the Swedish Euro referendum. Similar speculation then as to would it affect outcome but it didn’t.

  12. @ Jonathan Capehart
    Yes, the odds have been adjusted as the amounts staked on Leave or Remain have fluctuated. One result of the odds on Leave shortening was to produce reports of a few large (>£10,000) bets on Remain when better odds became available. Shrewd punters thinking that the ‘rush to bet Leave’ is unfounded and Remain is now ‘underbacked’?
    I suggest that your assessment needs to take account of the fact that most money (70% or so, 30% of bets) was staked in large amounts earlier in the campaign, when a win for Remain seemed more likely. My father (who used to bet shillings on horses at long odds) called betting on odds-on favourites “buying money”. He couldn’t afford to risk £500 to win £200, but did once bring home a double at 66-1 for both horses, when £200 would buy a second-hand car!

  13. @EIREXIT
    How do you know?

  14. I’m more and more convinced this is mirroring hte events of the Scottish referendum. The ones for “independence” are generally much more passionately aligned to a cause and – not meant pejoratively – a “tribal” allegiance (Scotland/Britain). Those in favour of union – I’m talking about the public here,rather than politicians – are much less active. fewer posters reported etc.

    In the Scottish referendum the public and online chatter, and eventually the polls showed the “patriotic” cause dominating creating an impression of potential if not inevitable victory. “Everyone I know says they’re voting out!”…but of course they didn’t. The impression of many at the time – rightly or wrongly – is that many people may have felt compelled by social pressure and the passion of the outers to play down or even deny their real voting intentions even to pollsters.

    I’ve had little reason to think such imagined “intimidation” of the quiet unionist has been occurring in this referendum till now, but this morning read a public conversation on facebook of a liberal pro-Eu friend with some leaver friend of his.

    A: I’ve been threatened several times now because I want people to remain.

    B: Well then that’s out of order.

    A:Tell me about it. These people are saying they are entitled to free speech which they are. But as soon as anyone who disagrees or challenges it gets very threatening. One guy sent a private message saying if I still lived in the North West I’d be round to sort you out.

    A single anecdote, and I’m not suggesting there’s any kind of actual widespread or conscious intimidation going on, but it does make me think again people who have no intention of voting out are much more likely for the sake of a quiet life pretend they are than the other way round because the other side is far more passionate about the cause.

  15. Jonathan Capeheart,

    I understand drmibbles point and I think it makes sense.
    When England play Australia at cricket, the odds on an England win are usually far more optimistic than the form and the pundits are predicting.
    This is because some England cricket fans go along the lines of “I know they’re better than us but I just have a hunch that we’ll beat them this time and I think I’ll even have a little flutter on it”. This increases their pleasure if England win. The larger amount of money put on England causes the odds to drop and so you might get the view that “the bookies are predicting and England win”. No, they’re not, they are just trying to make sure they make a profit. The bookies are only reflecting the amount of money they have had invested on a particular result.

    Whether or not Remain supporters are better off than Leave supporters I am unqualified to say but if that is true, then the effect of what drmibbles is saying could well be a factor.

    I really welcome Anthony’s request above and hope everybody sticks to it.

    This is not really a polling point but I hope it doesn’t get moderated as it is a genuine request for explanation of something I don’t understand. I thought that I might hear an explanation from one side or the other during the campaign but so far, no such luck so can one of the more erudite correspondents here please enlighten me.

    I know nothing at all about economics but the government has said, amongst other things that:
    1. Brexit will cause the pound to fall.
    2. Brexit will cause international businesses to pull out of Britain.

    Please tell me if I am wrong here, but if the pound falls, doesn’t that make goods and services produced in Britain cheaper to buy if you are buying from abroad? Won’t that mean that the export of such goods and services are likely to rise?
    If so, why would any business already based here pull out if their sales are increasing?

    I know this must be really basic stuff and so I apologise for my naivety but it is a genuine request from someone who is obviously woefully ignorant of the subject.

    Thanks

  16. Funny that – most of the abuse I’ve seen has come from the Remain campaigners. And that includes the campaign debates!

  17. Abuse? Has someone been threatened for saying they’re voting out?

    Maybe they have.. I just find it harder to imagine. So I’ll rephrase my point. When it comes to staying part of a bigger union or going it alone, the going it alone side inevitably and naturally has the greater claim to the label of patriotism. And no one wants to be thought of as less than patriotic.Therefore – I’m surmising – its much more likely that you’ll claim in company to be on the “patriotic” side of an argument if you’re not than the other way round.

    Of course we’ll find out on Thursday.

  18. If there were a real phenomenon of Shy Remainers, wouldn’t that be expected to result in online polls showing Remain stronger than phone polls, because in a phone poll, the Remainer has to talk to a human being?

  19. R Huckle: “I wonder whether remain supporters are more shy about their likely vote, whereas leave supporters tend to be more vocal.”

    I think that this may depend on where you are. I think if I were a leave supporting student or in other heavily “remain” demographics, I might be a little shy. If I were a “remainer” in a working class area, I might be a little shy.

    It depends whether the company kept is likely to be concerned about “racist and xenophobes” or “members of a sneering metropolitan elite”.

  20. @Erniet,

    “Reminds me of the Anna Lindh killing before the Swedish Euro referendum. Similar speculation then as to would it affect outcome but it didn’t.”

    (1) No suspect was arrested until two days after the referendum had taken place. I don’t know what people’s speculations were about motive, but it is at least conceivable that with a suspect in custody in the Jo Cox case, the public may feel justified in believing certain things about what the motive was,
    (2) One theory I’ve heard is that a sympathy vote could accrue to Remain on the grounds that Jo Cox was Labour and that Labour politicians are nearly all Remain. The Swedish Social Democrats were much more divided over the Euro (whereas the conservative Moderates were overwhelmingly in favour of it, the Greens and Left against it), so any party-based sympathy vote would not work out the same way, though of course, Lindh’s personal view (pro-Euro) was well known.

  21. Regardless of In out one thing needs to be carefully considered by all our MPs. If any decide to vote opposite their local constituency parties it is highly likely that they could be de selected later or simply be voted out by the public. There is a lot at stake here for those affected by the contentious issues of immigration , housing and school places. These issues will not disappear overnight and should they become worse it is certain that out of step MPs will pay with their jobs at the next election.
    What turmoil awaits us?

  22. @gatinno,

    Strange. My experience of social media is it’s much more threatening and aggressive in favour of remain rather than leave with some really quite nasty articles floating about. I always put this down to the fact it contains more young people.

    I don’t know what to read in to these polls here. I’ll wait until tonight.

  23. RICHARD P

    re: shy remainers

    the effect you have described there is, indeed, a better indication of shy Leavers in the phone polls – a much more likely scenario given the inferences of xenophobia and racism if people have concerns about mass economic migration

  24. I have been so turned off by the nasty rhetoric surrounding this referendum…I can’t wait for June 24.

  25. I feel sympathy for the lady who felt that she had never been asked the question. Everyone on this site believes they have logical reasons (well perhaps not all, TOH acknowledges he is a romantic but even he says that his basic gut sentiment is buttressed by sound logic). Given that this is the case (and obviously with posters here it is the case) it is amazing how little logical argument the campaign has involved.
    On the one side the Remain camp has put forward apparently reasoned economic cases for remaining. There have been lengthy apparently reasoned reports from the LSE, IMF, Treasury, NFER and so on. These may well be wrong = economists show a remarkable tendency to be wrong en masse – but the leave side simply rubbishes them as mistaken, biased, or self-serving. Argument is not involved.
    On the other side the Leave camp have a solid argument that in the EU one can’t have the single market without free movement of Labour and that this means we do not have full control of our borders. In its own terms there is no answer to that. However, there is room for debate about whether the perceived costs of immigration are correct and irremediable and whether the price we would pay for stopping immigration from the EU would be high and simply result in more immigration from elsewhere. I am not aware that these issues have been addressed either.
    The problem really is that the referendum bundles up a whole set of issues which ideally are not all considered together or at the same time, In this respect Mrs A is clearly right. She probably needs to learn to write very small and somehow insert her message in the single box that is opposite remain. (As I understand it, it is only if the writing is outside the box that the vote is invalid. Indeed a person who inserted a picture of a penis in the box of the candidate he particularly disliked was paradoxically held to have voted for him because the writing was within the box)

  26. IIRC the polls in the GE converged in the days leading up to the election…were individual polling companies unwilling to report a swing to the status quo because they did not want to encourage/discourage and affect the outcome??

    Maybe there will be a swing this time, recorded or not by the pollsters before time, although at times the campaign has felt a little bit like a by-election on a national scale, ok to give the incumbents a proverbial kicking and vote accordingly.

    LudlowNewboy: Economics 101… when the pound falls as you say exports become cheaper, the other side of the coin is more expensive imports. The overall effect is rather mixed, obviously for those businesses that need the latter to do the former and for the economy generally.

  27. @Ludlownewboy It seems to me that what matters in economics is not what is logical but what people believe to be logical. As far as I can make out most of the big manufacturers from Nissan to Rolls Royce believe that pulling out of the EU would be bad for them and that this belief will affect their investment decisions. So your question is really about psychology rather than economics and should be addressed to the

  28. GATTINO
    Reference political intimidation it never ceases to amaze me how devoid of criticism the organisation “Hope not Hate” is. In fact I have heard it said they are supported by our PM among others. This organisation seem determind to stop any canvasing by those with who they disagree. The recently prevented the UKIP campaign bus from entering Northampton thereby denying the residents from hearing Mr Farage speak for Leave. I do not know of any remain campaigns being disrupted by an alternative organisation and one wonders what makes “Hope not Hate” believe their behaviour is legitimate.

  29. I’ve seen a large amount of abuse given to those who are thought to want to vote out – generally along the lines that you a racist if you do so. Online it entirely shuts down the debate amongst people I know.

    But then, before the general election last year the same thing happened with voting intentions. I didn’t see a single person who wanted anything other than “kick the Tories out”, but my sample of people were clearly not representative of the population as a whole: that’s why I’m interested in opinion polling.

  30. “Any publicity is good publicity” – might Leave not benefit considerably from their strong suit – fears over security, law and order, and terrorism – being at the forefront of people’s minds, regardless of how it got there? I think the events in Yorkshire, combined with Orlando, and the terror fears / hooliganism at Euro 16, have pretty much ensured that none of the remaining Don’t Knows are going to be deciding based on sober economic reasoning. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the effect on polling – if there is any – were to be counterintuitive.

  31. Gattino

    Not threatened but certainly told off in a aggressive tone of voice.

    The response as I remember it when I said I was voting Leave was “So you are happy to put my children’s futures at risk. Thanks very much”. Followed by a haughty turn before stalking off. Previously, I thought this lady and I were on friendly terms but she hasn’t spoken to me since.

  32. @ludlownewboy
    Congratulations on your ability to think for yourself.
    But:
    Quite apart from whether tariffs are placed on trade with the other EU countries (which will not happen on Friday 24th June 2016) suppose the pound falls on that day, which it might, then
    The price of UK goods abroad falls. So foreigners buy more cheaply ( and may as a result buy more – perhaps even enough more to offset our loss in selling more cheaply, perhaps not.
    But we have a trade deficit with the EU. We buy (must buy??) more from them than they buy from us. Usually put as they sell more to us than we sell to them, so they won’t want tariffs. But they will get the benefit or penalty of changes in the exchange rate at once. So we shall buy EU goods at higher prices, and the EU will gain.
    But that assumes that the pound will fall against the Euro. But the EU is about to lose its 3rd biggest (2nd biggest in the near future?) contributor. Will the Euro keep its higher value against the pound? Against the dollar?
    What other factors may affect the value of the pound? Suppose a Leave vote triggers a general election which produces a Corbyn Labour/SNP coalition? Will the pound fall further? Will that be the cause? Or will the result of the US Presidential election cause the dollar to rise sharply against both Euro and pound? Or will China suddenly stop buyiong as much for internal reasons?
    Or will India buy more financial services?

    I could go on. All I am saying, with examples, is that most of the simplistic arguments put forward actually ignore the complexity of the situation and fail to show with certainty that the changes forecast actually result from the causes suggested, or even whether those causes are actually the most significant factors even if they do contribute.
    Do carry on thinking for yourself. I suggest the first questions you address to any statement like “the pound will fall and we shall all be ‘X’ ” are “Is that true; is it likely; what else might follow?”
    Not a completely easy read, but a bit of an antidote to the conventional economics of various schools, try Benoit Mandelbrot’s ‘The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence’
    Mandelbrot was a Polish-born, French and American mathematician with broad interests in practical sciences, especially regarding what he labelled as “the art of roughness” of physical phenomena and “the uncontrolled element in life.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benoit_Mandelbrot

  33. @Gattino
    “When it comes to staying part of a bigger union or going it alone, the going it alone side inevitably and naturally has the greater claim to the label of patriotism.”

    ‘Inevitably and naturally’ Did that apply to Churchill’s relief at being able to enter into an alliance with the USA against the Axis powers?

  34. I have found that some of the “Remain” people made me a little uncomfortable once, as they seemed to dismiss “Leave” voters as being prejudiced.

    I was sharing a taxi with several people I didn’t know after a train was cancelled. They were young graduate students.

    They spoke as though anyone who votes leave is a “bigot”, indeed they used that term. That made me uncomfortable, as I found it unfair, but I didn’t argue.

    That being said I am voting REMAIN.

  35. @ both G & L
    Just before the EU MEP elections Nigel Farage held a meeting in Swansea. I went to hear him first hand, out of curiosity. As I walked towards the door there was a smallish but not insignificant crowd of folk with banners and leaflets denigrating Farage and UKIP. They were restrained by a barrier and a police presence. I was regaled with shouts of Racist, Fascist, etc etc.
    I walked over to the barrier and asked one vocal member of the crowd whether she knew anything about me, and why I had come. No response. A police officer asked me to stand back in case violence resulted. I pointed out I was on his side of the police barrier and promised not to be violent. He stepped back, and I went in.

  36. Dave, Charles

    Thanks for your explanations, particularly Dave for all your time and trouble.

    I think you are both saying that my simplistic logic is accurate but that there is far more complexity that may or may not produce a different outcome.
    Presumably this means that nobody really knows whether the government’s statements are true or not.
    Or has somebody done a full economic model which factors in all Dave’s questions and includes estimates of the various variables?
    If so, has it been published with all the detail rather than just a one-line conclusion?

    If it has been done and not published, then I think it ought to be.
    I don’t think the excuse that ordinary people aren’t interested in all the detail holds water. I am, and I bet I am not alone. If I can read it and follow the logic and come to the same conclusions, then I am likely to attach much more trust in any future statements by whoever it is that produced it.
    And I bet I am not alone in that either.

    Just saying “a respected organisation” doesn’t cut it. Why do I respect them? I’ve never heard of half of them.

    I think we desperately need a proper debate in which both sides have a measured discussion on how these things will affect us but probably too late now.

    Pity, this is so important.

  37. @ProfHoward
    Bigot: a person who has strong, unreasonable beliefs and who does not like other people who have different beliefs or a different way of life:
    http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/bigot

    Based on your account of your experience, and on watching a range of YouTube clips of EU leaders over several years, it appears to me that you propose to vote for us to be a member of an organisation supported by bigots.

  38. @Roy:

    On “Hope not hate”, it is in the name. They see themselves as bringing “hope” and their opponents as being motivated by “hate”. Historically, such attitudes can lead you into a very dark place.

    The current line in the Guardian columns is a call for a higher tone of public debate, not that those in the “UKIP bunker” are capable of it, do you really want to vote in the same way as them…?? (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers)

    So, I think that the rest of the debate will be one with much innuendo from Remain. It may not persuade many. But it may cause some of the young slackers to see the vote as a fight for civilisation and actually turn out.

  39. @DAVE

    You said: “The price of UK goods abroad falls. So foreigners buy more cheaply ( and may as a result buy more – perhaps even enough more to offset our loss in selling more cheaply, perhaps not.”

    We import may goods from europe to re-manufacture to sell back to the EU and the big bad world.

    Also what we sell has to be affordable by the consumers of non EU countries.

    If you investigate the nations that we are in surplus with, say the top 10, their average income per capita, is higher or similar to ours.

    Our average income per capita is part of the cost of goods and serves we sell /produce. Only people with on average or similar income can afford on average our goods and services. In the long run EU is our most important customer, closer, easier to sell, and less risk, compared to the likes of India.

  40. Joseph
    Luckily nobody reads the Guardian. (except teachers, in my experience)

  41. DAVE

    “Based on your account of your experience, and on watching a range of YouTube clips of EU leaders over several years, it appears to me that you propose to vote for us to be a member of an organisation supported by bigots.”

    No doubt. But I think we need to be at that particular table.

  42. @ludlownewboy
    “has somebody done a full economic model which factors in all Dave’s questions and includes estimates of the various variables?”
    Mandelbrot’s book in effect says that is not possible, any more than the weather can be forecast more than a few days in advance, and that not accurately in detail. (If you doubt that, look online at the Met Office weather forecast for your area now, and early tomorrow morning. I shall be surprised if the forecast for Sunday afternoon is exactly the same. It rarely is where I live, and sometimes the weather outside the window turns out quite different.
    I could have exchanged the factors I listed for an equal number of very different ones.
    Suppose the expected earthquakes and eruptions in California and Yellowstone Park happen?
    The odds that the Yellowstone supervolcano will erupt are roughly the same as those that the National Weather Service estimates you’ll get struck by lightning in your lifetime: 1 in 10,000. She last blew her top 640,000 years ago. The two times before that occurred roughly 1.3 million and 2.1 million years ago.
    http://www.yellowstonepark.com/supervolcano-eruptions/
    Or look at “The next Big One” in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault

  43. Worse case economic scenario is a 10% tariff as per WTO rules on certain products after we leave the EU in 2020 or whenever it’s planned. But then again, even Japan got a 4% tariff deal with the EU so fairly sure we can do better than that.

    Hardly economic apocalypse. Might shave a tiny bit off export-led GDP to the EU, which is 8% of our total economy.

  44. @Richard P

    I didn’t refer to the Swedish referendum – you’ve referenced the wrong poster

  45. DrMibbles

    As I understand it, it’s in the EU interests to have a low tariff rate on goods, because they sell more to us than we sell to them. The big issue will what any deal might be on services – not covered by WTO rules – where the EU-UK balance is reversed and London being outwith the EU will be a big opportunity for Frankfurt.

  46. There has to be a significant possibility that the tragic death of Jo Cox will make it less likely that the losing side will accept the Referendum result as having reflected the will of the UK electorate.Many are likely to argue tht the emotional turmoil of the final days of the campaign will have distorted the result, and as a result we may have to go through this yet again a few short years down the road.

  47. I think we know there will be a big difference in voting patterns between the young and old. What about gender? I have a sense that more men will vote out than their female counterparts.

  48. Thanks Dave,

    That does actually put my mind at rest.

  49. @GRAHAM
    ‘There has to be a significant possibility that the tragic death of Jo Cox will make it less likely that the losing side will accept the Referendum result as having reflected the will of the UK electorate.Many are likely to argue tht the emotional turmoil of the final days of the campaign will have distorted the result, and as a result we may have to go through this yet again a few short years down the road.’

    They can say what they like, any one who tries to force the British people to go through this again, whatever the result, is likely to face a backlash and any resulting vote is much more likely to be even more definitive.

  50. Wonderful day for English Rugby, first series win in Australia, following England Saxons series win in South Africa.

    Nice to have something positive to celebrate after all the sadness of the last couple of days.

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