Ipsos MORI’s telephone poll for the Standard is out and now also shows Leave ahead. Topline figures are LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47% among likely voters. On paper this is a huge shift – MORI’s previous poll had an eighteen point lead for Remain among all voters (which was the headline figure reported), and would have had a fourteen point Remain lead among likely voters. Part of the difference is methodology change, MORI are now accounting for turnout and have started weighting by education (Ben Page suggests this boosted Leave by three points) but even accounting for that it is still another poll showing a hefty movement towards Leave.

Since the beginning of June all of the polls released have shown the horserace somewhere between a tight race and a clear Leave lead. The last polls to show clear Remain leads were ORB and Survation back at the end of May – ORB now have the race neck-and-neck, Survation have a poll out later today which I’d expect to echo other companies in showing a shift towards Leave.

882 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47%”

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  1. Pete B

    It’s a UK poll (ie incl NI) – though I haven’t had a chance to look at the tables for either poll yet.

  2. “be careful what you say. The Far Right support the NHS, nationalising British Rail and the gas, water and electricity as well as a host of other things you would associate with the Left – such as free university education, higher state pensions and linked to average earnibngs, etc etc.”


    I’m afraid to ask, but where do they stand on Thorium?

  3. Isn’t standing on Thorium rather dangerous, wherever one does it?

  4. Neil A

    Thanks for the info on contempt of court.

    Given that Anthony will doubtless be rather busy over the next week, it would make sense for us all to recognise that he can’t be available to moderate inappropriate posts, and avoid discussing the details of the murder in any way that would give the site problems.

  5. Jayblanc

    “I don’t understand how a Brexit achieves your stated goal of making a better EU.”

    Not directed to me but if someone felt the main problem with the the EU is it’s an emotional reaction to WW2 rather than a practically minded project between allied nation-states then bringing it down and starting again at some later date more distant from WW2 could fix that.

    That was my view in the past before immigration etc took over.

  6. The “Popularist” Far Right have always been in favour of Good Works. For the correct kind of people. Usually so they can tell you that the wrong kind of people are why you can’t have these nice things.

  7. @Muddy Waters

    Well, Thorium is all around us, it’s very abundant. But prolly a good idea to avoid concentrations of it…

  8. CARFREW- They are remarkably ‘green’ in outlook. Many people forget that thee is a significant degree of overlap between the traditional Left and the far-Right, which is probably why both threads are mainly working class and the same working class have no problems moving directly from one to the other.

  9. Jayblanc

    Not just the “Far Right”.

    One of the classic examples was st John’s Parish in 19th century Glasgow, where the Evangelical minister, Thomas Chalmers was encouraged to implement his vision that “the poor could support the poor”, and that taxation of the wealthy for their support was unnecessary.

    Of course, it only “succeeded” because the wealthy channelled charitable contributions to it, in order to avoid taxation of their class.

    ‘Twas ever thus.

  10. @JayBlanc,

    Remember I am talking in a much longer term, here.

    I don’t mean that Brexit will improve the current EU, or that a new arrangement will be built in the next 20 years.

    I mean that there is a current impatient momentum and grim arrogance about the EU project that is not fit for purpose.

    They had their chance to correct this when Cameron went to negotiate a temporary halt to free movement of people. They told him to eff off, and so here we are.

    I don’t think it’s just the UK that has the problem, or that it’s just free movement of people that’s the issue. The Euro is ill-conceived, Greece is being expected to achieve the impossible, the EU is trying to expand into territories that are light years away from being ready to join, efforts to create a single European diplomatic and military entity are a dangerous vanity project that is neither needed nor wanted, the common agricultural and fisheries policies are wrong-headed and desperately need to change.

    I have no problem with having a commission, with QMV, with the European Parliament, with the single market in goods and services, with EuroPol, with EAWs, with the EHCR or all sorts of other things that some Eurosceptics baulk at. But the EU is currently built to fail, and I see no greater risk to peace in Europe than the prospect of a detached elite trying to hold tight to an empire made up of disparate nation states that want to be able to breathe.

    Like OldNat I think that the Maastricht principle of subsidiarity was a good starting point for a sensible EU. Everything should be done at a local, regional or national level unless the EU can put forward a truly compelling argument why it should be done EU-wide. In reality the EU looks at life through the opposite end of that telescope.

  11. @NEIL A
    another remainer
    @MOG,AU etc
    another USE man

    Remain for all sorts of reasons including peace, place in the world, economics, solidarity with other nations.

    Out leafletting two days ago I met an Anglo Swiss bloke – born here, half swiss parents, has a flat here and a business in Swissy. No vote so no use to me but he thinks the UK is quite mad even to be considering Brexit. Cost of living up sharply, banks leaving as soon as convenient, multinational manufacturers ditto.

    Actually, I do think Brexit will ‘cure’ immigration in due course (for those who think it’s a disease). The economy will be so moribund and the image of UK so negative that there will be few jobs and no buzz about coming here, so Neil ‘Malthus’ A maybe made the right decision since population seems to be his major concern.

  12. @Guymonde,

    That thought has occurred to me, and may explain why I am more sanguine about UK growth falling than most people.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 42%
    Abstain 6%

  13. Senior general Lord Guthrie switches sides and comes out for Brexit

  14. @ Carfew

    I think that Alec used the word compassion not empathy which is more consistent with your contention about not being able to empathise with someone who is psychotic or psychopathic.

    However, it is very much a case of how one defines empathy.

    On a biological level, our emotions are ‘created’ within our body musculature. The intersubjective experience or intuition about another’s feelings arises from aligning our body musculature with theirs (there are mirroring neurons in the brain). Presumably, this evolved in mammals as a preverbal communication system … and works intraspecifically too so e.g. you can tell that the dog doesn’t feel well etc.

    This is automatic but the internal world of an individual is also conditioned by their individual, familial and societal experiences, values and norms. ‘We meet every moment through the prism of our experience’. Hence, for a variety of reasons that automatic ’empathy’ can be over-ridden, usually by making the subject ‘other’ e.g. a monster, a lower caste, evil or whatever.

    However, the thing that distinguishes us from lower mammals is our capacity to reflect on our internal world and to change our frame of reference about the messages received from family and society.

    The process of working with a victim who has been subject to trauma is to support them in making sense of their experience. Obviously, that can only occur if the victim feels safe enough and understood i.e a considerable degree of empathy. Very often a victim believes themselves to have invited the abuse, that there is something about them which is to blame. In such a case, gaining some understanding of the motivation or history of the perpetrator (empathy if you like) can help the victim to separate from the abuse.

    I’m sorry that I cannot précis more succinctly but I wanted to demonstrate that the word ’empathy’ is causing confusion through a lack of precision in definition. Empathy can be used variously to mean sympathy for, identification with, or insight into the emotions that another is experiencing. Perhaps I should have just said that in the first place….

  15. I have voted Leave by post and was swayed by the sheer contempt that Cameron & Osborne have shown for their own people by treating us like fools. They have relied on the same scare tactics that brought them success in 2015. I do not wish to see that type of politics prevail.

  16. Voting for Leave being not a hater of Europe just the political body. Stop the waste of billion pounds every year, lets control immigration and the borders and bring an end to european laws being superior to ours and its centralistic arrogance.

    I utterly refuse any concept of the United States of Europe.

  17. @Crossbat11

    “I’ve spent some time reflecting on all this and I think what might be happening here is that political obsessives, as they tend to do, are reacting to an appalling personal tragedy and shocking crime as if its primary importance is how it all “plays out” politically. Instead, we should look at it for now, certainly in its immediate aftermath, as the senseless killing of a mother of two young children who had so much to live for and, by the sound of her, so much still to give to others. A young life cut brutally short and two little children who will no longer have a Mum that I suspect they both adored and depended upon. A husband too deprived of a wife he dearly loved. Irrecoverably damaged lives left in the wake of an unforgivable crime. Whatever the lunatic had going on in his mind that caused him to pick up a gun and a knife yesterday morning and go out and murder Jo Cox, is really neither here nor there to me, certainly not now when all our thoughts should instead be with the victim and her family and friends.

    I didn’t know Jo Cox, nor much about her as a politician, but a picture is emerging of an utterly delightful woman who is going to leave a giant hole in many people’s lives. That’s the ghastly reality of it all and that’s the scale of the appalling crime that was committed yesterday.”

    I have similar thoughts. I feel terribly for her family and the people in her life. It’s tragic. No one should politicize it. And frankly, I would not attribute what happened to her as being a true political result. Just a crazy person acting out.

  18. @Syzygy

    Yes, agree, imprecision in definition can lead to misunderstandings, but misunderstanding empathy can also lead to issues in definition.

    Empathy is sharing the feelings, sympathy is more about offering support. Laszlo’s argument would make a bit more sense if criticising Alec for sympathy rather than empathy, but even then, one can defend Alec.

    Agreed, empathy can be overridden, by othering, or objectification as I put it: seeing the person more as an object. Experience can lead to this dehumanising but as I indicated research now shows it can be automatic and unconscious with people who are foreign.

    But experience can override this, when they start cooperating toward shared goals. Which explains a few things from my own experience…

  19. This thread became utterly depressing yesterday with its overwhelming bickering and negativism, but the light is creeping back in today.

    I’m particularly cheered by MOG’s calm, sincere and even moving rationale for being profoundly grateful for what the movement for European unity instead of discord has done for us all.

    There is case for describing this national debate as selflessness versus selfishness; compassion versus contempt.

    While Neil A’s straw poll is entertaining, I think a far more revealing analysis would be of the tone of posts here. What strikes me is that almost all the anger, personal abuse, loss of civility and failure to support dogmatic statements with evidence comes in posts identifiably backing the Leave side.

    If someone with more time than me cares to run the numbers, in a statistically unbiased way, that would be useful. But pending that, a glance back at any random selection of pages will prove the point.

    It is that loss of civility and calm rationality that depressed me yesterday, not the weight of argument one way or another. The appearance of a crack in the thin veneer of civilisation gives a glimpse through to the awful seething morass below.

  20. At the moment I’m going to vote remain. It could change as i’m not a 100% sure as both sides lie so much.

    Not sure people should keep mentioning the 2015 GE result as the result maybe a little dodgy……..we shall see.

  21. @Neila

    Remain for me. I don’t accept the collective paranoia about an EU superstate and consider our membership fee minute compared to the benefits. And if I had any doubts, hearing Gove talking about the “indigenous” people of Britain convinced me that the right ( and their left-wing supporters ) are flirting with very dangerous ideas.

  22. Good Morning All.
    Hello to you.
    While I had been thinking along the same lines as GRAHAM concerning Cameron and Osborne, the more I reflect on what to do next week the more I think I should eschew the ‘Remain’ side for reasons that you have put in your 7.40 am post.

    I think the result will be 52 % for REMAIN.

  23. I have voted remain for many reasons though not with enthusiasm for the eu of today
    The throwing of numbers and experts at each other has became meaningless and I think most of the public are no longer listening
    The behaviour of the eu towards Greece Portugal the refugee crisis and many other issues has horrified me as its blind acceptance of austerity and the lack of democracy-though coming from a country with an unelected second chamber and head of state it is a tad hypocritical
    However all these issues are dependent on respective countries elected governments of the time and these change
    So can the face of europe on these issues
    The big timeless universal problems
    climate change immigration pollution crime terrorism collaboration in scientific research war and peace trade- these all transcend borders and can only be resolved by working together with our neighbours
    Incidentally anyone interested in facts and some clear simple explanations could listen to a short series on radio 4 from More or Less which takes several topics in turn-immigration laws etc-and looks at the actual numbers
    I will say again that the campaign and the media reporting of it has been appalling and certainly according to what i have heard from canvassers etc has resulted in leavers becoming angrier and angrier at the way they perceive things have been weighted against them-as I said earlier according to my son canvassing a lot are not listening to any argument but have an anger about everything which has become focused on the eu and immigration as the ultimate culprit

  24. Can I just say that the loss of Jo Cox MP was a terrible and utterly wasteful event.

    Can I just add that the Australia – Americanisation of UK politics into churning out fear and spreading division “divide and rule” is utterly despicable and beneath us as British.

  25. @Anthony Wells

    Anthony, what is your view on how the awful murder of Jo Cox may lead to a shift in opinion for Remain or against Leave?

  26. Thoughtful: “are you comfortable with the deal the EU has done with dictators in the horn of Africa,?”

    One could equally ask: do you want the EU to try to control the influx of economic migrants / desperate refugees (delete according to choice), or keep the doors wide open?

    One loaded question can always be answered by another.

    But what is clear is that the west has a long and inglorious history of doing deals with dictators in what it perceives/pretends is in the greater good. If the Der Spiegel minutes are accurate, what they show is a bunch of national leaders getting together to do a secret deal. Those same national leaders have failed to come up with a collective approach of burden-sharing, which it’s clear the EU would have preferred, but was unable to impose.

  27. Hello everyone,

    Haven’t posted since the 2015 election so I doubt anyone remembers me, but I still read when I need a dose of fruitless worry.

    Anyway I’ve already voted Remain for a bunch of reasons but the big ones are:

    1. The economy. Most of my adult working life has been during the 2008 crash and the subsequent anaemic recovery. The idea of actively choosing even another small dose of that is unfathomable to me. We’re probably due another correction soon anyway so adding further headwinds to that is just nuts.

    2. Our standing in the world. Our friends and allies have been begging us to stay in. I think if we leave they will quite correctly assume Britain is retreating into isolation and irrelevance.

    3. Regional development. I grew up in Wales. Everywhere you look there is stuff with EU signs on. Roads, business parks, educational establishments. Given how unevenly this government applied council funding cuts and how London centric both main parties are I have no faith at all that they’d carry on funding less well off regions. I think Wales and other regions like Cornwall would be much poorer if we left.

    Anyway sorry for the essay had to get that off my chest.


    I agree absolutely with your statement “Brexit seems to me like a collective failure to take responsibility for one’s own problems, instead blaming them on others.”

    There is still time for Mr Cameron to agree to a well steered debate on Tuesday night with Mr Johnson / Gove, live on TV with no “representative” audience to ask loaded questions, and actually explain the issues to us.

  29. @somerjohn

    I had hoped that the West had learned some lessons from dealing with Middle Eastern dictators and the disastrous effect of dealing with them.

    There are attempts to stop boat launchings in Libya now, which might be more effective, sending boats to help them reach Europe is indicative of bleeding heart politics.

    The other issue is that yet again Germany is in charge of all this, despite being potentially least affected (It would have been if Merkel hadn’t gone insane), which is a worry for me.

  30. I have worked for leaving EU since 1996 and Maastricht Treaty. The treaty was a step too far for me.

    I believe that the UK can be a good co-operative neighbour with members of the EU without being part of a political union. We co-operate in many spheres covering almost all parts of our lives with countries of the world, bilaterally, multi-laterally, through organisations, without being part of a political union. Just think in how many fields independent nations co-operate; health, oceans, aviation, policing, defence, agriculture, overseas aid, climate change, patents, accounting rules, computer protocols, etc etc. You name your interest and there will be a body that works across countries.

    The fundamental difference with the EU is that we and other member countries have given the central body, the EU, legal supremacy over our Parliament, Courts and Civil Service. When decisions are made in Brussels by the EU they are enforced across the whole of the 28 countries and 600 million people whether appropriate for everyone or not. The stated policy of the EU is that this deep integration should be made ever more extensive in domestic and foreign affairs whether the peoples want it or not.

  31. Thoughtful: “If we remain, it is an inevitable consequence that the NHS will have to be, at least in part, privatised.”

    Rich: “So the NHS will have to be privatised if we Leave…
    It’s this fear based nonsense that has ensured I will vote leave. ”


  32. @tonycornwall,

    Very well put. Completely agree.

    Hello to you

    I think the final vote in UK will be 52% remain, with quite a few spoiled ballot papers.

    Recent tragic events have led me back to a reluctant vote for Remain.

  34. @Chrislane,

    What relevance are recent events to the referendum? Or have you been swayed by left wing social media attempting to tie this to the referendum in some way, disgracefully by the way.

  35. I’m still sticking to a very narrow leave.

    The polls sound about right, and a modest “swingback” to Remain is inevitable.

    N.B. I hope the tragic events don’t affect the results, I suspect they won’t affect people’s intentions. This whole referendum has been so drawn out and the standard of debate so mediocre, at times downright appalling, that I hope this issue is settled,

  36. @Carfrew & @Syzygy – While I understand your wish to point out some of @Laszlo’s gross errors (like inventing a word that was used and ignoring what was actually said) I would politely suggest that it’s time to put this one to bed and let @Laszlo stew in his own juices.

    Everyone else reading the comments understands precisely what I meant – that there is some sense of deep human sadness that can be felt towards the perpetrators of terrible crimes and their families, especially where those people appear to have struggles with their own demons. Everyone else also understands that such feelings do not replace or supplant the dreadful sense of loss felt in relation to the victims and their friends and family.

    Quite why anyone would imagine that there is some limited reserve of compassion that must either be assigned to victim or perpetrator is quite beyond me, but there is a whole world of cod psychologists out their ready to spout intricate and intellectual sounding theories without bothering first to engage in the understanding of meaning at a basic human level. Twas ever thus.

    @lazslo chooses to cite Bettelheim, a deeply flawed pyschologist whose theories on autism have been completely trashed, whose residential care home for disturbed young people has been plagued by numerous accusations from residents and staff that he was abusive and violent, and damaged patients, and whose statements of his family life, his wartime experience, and his academic background among other things, were full of l!es.

    This may explain why @Laszlo is completely wrong in everything he said about my posts the other night, but I would again politely request that you refrain from using my name in posts if you do choose to respond again.

    Everyone knows and understands what I said, and I stand by every word of it. AW will want us to move on, as I certainly do.

  37. I usually read rather than post but I hope you don’t mind me joining you.

    Thinking of the impact of Jo’s murder from a brexit standpoint, the event itself seems to be clearly in remain’s favour, both directly (remain voters being more inspired to vote, and waverers leaning towards leave being put off by the murderer’s views and swinging to remain instead) and indirectly (all the momentum was wth leave and the halt to campaigning will have damaged that),

    I wonder though whether the subsequent behaviour of remainers (Polly Toynbee et all) in effectively trying to blame the leave campaign, rather than just let events speak for themselves, will see leavers/leave sympathisers feeling under attack and therefore harden leave support.

    The next polls will be very interesting!

    Brexit seems to me like a collective failure to take responsibility for one’s own problems, instead blaming them on others.

    Best single sentence I’ve seen on the topic and entirely correct IMO.


    “The “Popularist” Far Right have always been in favour of Good Works. For the correct kind of people. Usually so they can tell you that the wrong kind of people are why you can’t have these nice things.”

    Equally true of the far left.

  40. @Bigfatron
    “Brexit seems to me like a collective failure to take responsibility for one’s own problems, instead blaming them on others.”
    I thought one of the main aims of Brexit is that we should take responsibility for our own problems.

  41. @dave,

    Spot on, brexit is about taking responsibility, not shifting it. Best comment have read.

    Just heard the head of the army switched to leave now, that’s pretty significant IMHO. He says a European army is inevitable over time if don’t leave.

  42. Former head of army I mean!

  43. Remain.

    What we have in Europe today is precious and potentially fleeting. A continent riven by warfare and conflict for centuries essentially at peace. A peace that has lasted within the polity of the original European Community for 60 years – the longest period of such stability since the fall of Rome.

    It is the arrogance of every age to assume that we know best and that our achievements cannot be undone. I don’t subscribe to this view. When the mechanisms of peaceful negotiation established by the Concert of Europe were dismantled in the 1850s, few thought it would lead to Franco Prussian war within a generation, or, arguably, to the calamities of the first half of the 20th century.

    Others scoff at the notion of the dismemberment of the EU leading to another pan-European war. Such an extrapolation may be to go too far. Perhaps it is my non-conformist upbringing, but I have a natural inclination against gambling, especially for such high stakes. What we have now is better than that particular unknown.

    It’s often said that NATO won this peace not the EC / EU. NATO is a guard against shared external threat, not a guarantee of peace between allied nations. Nor has NATO anything to say about the quality of its members – many quibble about Turkey’s protracted talks over EU membership, yet it has been a NATO ally since the days of the generals (1952), other nations too were admitted when in the grip of authoritarian rule: Portugal (1949) Greece (1952).

    NATO took action when war visited Europe again in the Balkans as it was the best equipped, best placed organisation to do so. It is the EU that has set out the altogether grander ambition of knitting together the continent after, in spite of, its turbulent history. These institutions are twin pillars of our world, weakening either will have consequences.

    The expansion of the EU to the East – a policy promulgated and promoted by the UK more than any other member state – was, amongst other things, an attempt to ensure that the fall of the Iron Curtain didn’t lead to a new form of division and insecurity developing in Europe.

    This was never going to be a seamless or painless process, yet for all the difficulties – which I do not diminish – we can reflect how much better our relations are with the former Eastern Bloc countries which we have engaged through the European Union with aid, cooperation and fraternity than they are with the former Soviet Union itself. Quite aside from this, I think for the UK to walk away from a situation it in no small part engineered would be dishonourable. An act of bad faith.

    None of this is to say that there are not consequences caused by the free movement of people within the EU, consequences that affect – though not exclusively – those with the least the most. For me it is the responsibility of national and European institutions to address and mitigate these problems, not to destroy the European ideal ‘because it is all too difficult’. That these issues have not been addressed is a matter of profound shame.

    That said, I am also drawn to the conclusion that systematic under investment in these communities, poor industrial and educational policies and neglect by UK governments has contributed in no small part to these problems, Europe is now a convenient whipping boy. Equally, the coming waves of AI and further automation probably represent even more profound challenges to existing ways of life, challenges that leaving the EU will not solve.

    I also, no doubt without much popular support, fervently believe in the human rights framework established in parallel to (though only in part constitutionally connected with) the EU.

    Our leaving the EU would be a precursor to departing or becoming semi-detached from the ECHR and European Court. The Convention is the only serious attempt ever made to translate the aspirations of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights into codified and (partially) binding treaty law. It is a beacon to the world.

    It is a fiction to suggest that those who drafted the treaty and created the institutions did not fully intend that there be supra-national oversight of the actions of national courts in matters pertaining to human rights. Of course it compromises national sovereignty, but it does so in order to assert the inalienable rights of humanity above the questionable, and often abused, ‘rights’ of the nation state.

    For a mature democracy and civil society such as the UK, my feeling is we should regard the mechanisms of the ECHR rather like a good academic treats peer review, welcoming commentary and criticism with a view to enriching our learning, practice and culture of justice.

    There are other reasons why I will vote Remain, the environment, economy, overseas aid, international influence, employment rights; however, predominantly, it is to because I fundamentally believe that what we have created in Europe is magical, hugely flawed but magical,

    In place of strife, we have a Europe in which we are free to travel, work and learn. A continent in which the main reason for visiting a another land is one of these three or pleasure, not war as it was a hundred years ago.

    The European ideal is elusive and its implementation hugely imperfect. But it remains a dream I am happy to subscribe to.

    The referendum campaign, by contrast, has been conducted – to varying degrees – in the gutter. Both sides have enjoined a debate based on the lowest common denominator.

    So to end with an especially apt – considering the EU flag – quote from the Irishman Oscar Wilde:

    “We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.”

  44. Roy, ” My decision will be made on one undeniable truth and that is this, At the moment we do not have the ability to remove those who rule us and our courts,”

    That is so true. It is why I have always been a supporter of proportional representation, because never in my life has it been possible to remove the parties, labour or conservative, who have governed the Uk without ever the support of a majority of the voters. It is utterly outrageous that they be allowed to do this and I fully support any proposals to make the electoral system in the Uk democratic. Unfortunately I am completely at a loss to understand how leaving the EU would do anything about this. If anything it might make matters worse, because at present the EU insists on some level of democracy within member states, and is itself a highly democratic organisation where no one can seize control without a real democratic majority.

  45. Dave

    “I thought one of the main aims of Brexit is that we should take responsibility for our own problems.”

    Agreed Brexit is the very opposite. BFR could not be more wrong.


    I forgot to say why my wife and I will be voting leave.
    Me: The economy first, I think we will do far better once we are not dragged down by the failing EU, secondly sovereignty, thirdly control of our borders.

    My wife: immigration.

  46. Assiduosity

    Beautiful sentiments, beautifully expressed.

  47. Assiduosity,

    I totally disagree. Its the politics of we know best, not the people.

  48. RICH

    Totally agree with you and it’s why the peoples of Europe will eventually break up the EU.

  49. neil a,
    “Ah the old “Pyramid” model, that blames people with a moderate view for the actions of a tiny number of extremists at the tip of the pyramid who share those views but overlay them with horrific beliefs including, ultimately, the use of murder.”

    UK law enshrines the pyramid in that it is illegal to incite hatred and violence. As always, it is a question of the degree to which this is done. BNP miraculously disappeared as UKIP began to grow and I presume such people found a new home.

    In my experience it is always a tiny number of people who effect change in society, whether it is direct action such as bombs, bullets or intimidation, or driving through a political campaign. The great mass of the population are simply followers swayed one way or another by these opinion formers. Government is always a matter of an elite who cause things to happen. Jo Cox is in my view dead because of the campaign being waged. Her assailant was plainly of a right wing mindset for some years, but everything published so far supports this campaign as the key event which drove him to take direct action against an individual active against his world view. In the long run I am sure he has committed a significant political act which will contribute to changing the political landscape. A few hundred people like him would be all that was needed to change British politics.

    You argue that the leave campaign has been relatively mild and has not been rushing round suggesting the use of violence, so should not be tarred with the same brush. I would argue they have shown a willingness to lie in their campaigning, and this has for me undermined faith in their honesty. It is clear they do not support the reasons for leave which however they propose publicly. So I can not tell what their ultimate aim truly is.

    On another website someone drew an analogy with the fall of the weimar reublic in Germany, engineered by the Nazi party through an ostensibly legitimate and wholesome campaign, which steadily changed as they carried public support with them. Many ingredients of that era are being repeated here right now.

  50. Rich, TOH

    One line rebuttals of a carefully reasoned, comprehensive and convincing statement of belief don’t cut it.

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