Ipsos MORI’s telephone poll for the Standard is out and now also shows Leave ahead. Topline figures are LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47% among likely voters. On paper this is a huge shift – MORI’s previous poll had an eighteen point lead for Remain among all voters (which was the headline figure reported), and would have had a fourteen point Remain lead among likely voters. Part of the difference is methodology change, MORI are now accounting for turnout and have started weighting by education (Ben Page suggests this boosted Leave by three points) but even accounting for that it is still another poll showing a hefty movement towards Leave.

Since the beginning of June all of the polls released have shown the horserace somewhere between a tight race and a clear Leave lead. The last polls to show clear Remain leads were ORB and Survation back at the end of May – ORB now have the race neck-and-neck, Survation have a poll out later today which I’d expect to echo other companies in showing a shift towards Leave.


882 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47%”

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  1. Wow

  2. @ Tony Cornwall

    That was exactly what I was going to post. Didn’t see that one coming.

  3. If you have shares sell them now!!!

  4. If this is for the LONDON evening standard is it weighted to the capital or is it UK wide polling ?

    [it’s for the Standard, but is a GB poll – AW]

  5. Does your weighting for education reflect the

    HoC Library
    1950 19,700 degrees awarded
    1970 64,090
    2010 513,600
    2011 545,070

    so older people less likely to be “degree level” education?

    [I don’t know if MORI’s does, they haven’t put up details yet. I know YouGov’s education weighting is interlocked with age (i.e. the weighting categories are actually the equivalent of young people with degrees, middle aged people with degrees, older people with degrees, young people with A-Levels, middle aged people with A-Levels, etc, etc) – AW]

  6. @ Anthony Wells

    20% of people may change their mind. It would be very interesting to know whether these people are more heavily on one side or another and also how the DKs shake out.

    Past experience seems to be that in “once in lifetime, no turning back” referenda like this the DKs break overwhelmingly for the status quo (which makes sense – if you are still DK after the full on campaign you’ll vote for what’s happening now). But equally you might just not vote.

  7. Good morning all from leave leaning Hampshire.

    Another eye opening poll for leave. Brussels must surely wake up now to the fact that one of its major members really looks like giving them the boot and slow down on it’s ever increasing integration before the whole bloody EU thing blows up on their faces.

    Cameron must be hitting the Valium big time.

  8. Yesterday a couple of us posted some historical Guardian links from the time of ERM & ECU, however I would recommend people take a look at Margaret Thatcher’s Bruge speech and compare & contrast it to the current vote leave campaign.
    It would appear they might well have used it as a basis for their campaign.

    Cameron should have been fully aware of this famous speech, and should have prepared to counter it accordingly – if he could.
    The problem is that in attacking the “blessed Margaret” he could well have caused even greater damage to the Tory party.

    Here’s some of the opening sentences:

    “My first guiding principle is this: willing and active cooperation between independent sovereign states is the best way to build a successful European Community.

    To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve.

    Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality.

    I want to see us work more closely on the things we can do better together than alone.

    Europe is stronger when we do so, whether it be in trade, in defence or in our relations with the rest of the world.”

    I don’t think this would come as surprise given the protagonists on the Vote Leave side.

  9. The Remain campaign have made little or no attempt to address people’s concerns. When raised the person is branded a ‘bigot’ (copyright G Brown). Nicola Sturgeon can say ‘Don’t blame immigrants blame your government’ but Cameron & Osborne can’t. And Labour have largely been MIA, with a leader who is lukewarm at best to the EU.

    In most programs I watch it is the less articulate, less posh who have genuine issues housing, NHS, schools but their concerns are never addressed just sneeringly dismissed by some middleclass pol. And sneering at people you need to vote for your cause & dismissing their concerns never ends well.

  10. Its beginning to look as though the revolt against the threats & blasé indifference of the Remain side will exact a terrible punishment on Cameron & Osborne & take us into the unknown on a tidal wave of “stuff the lot of ’em” sentiment.

    If Leave wins ‘ but their promises fail , they will suffer the same fate , as the credibility of UK’s politicians plumbs new depths.

  11. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/16/refugee-crisis-hit-uk-working-class-powerless

    I think that this Guardian article from not so long ago goes a long way to explaining why the poorer end of society are voting to leave, and unfortunately, although voting leave isn’t going to end their problems it will be a start.

    Politicians especially Labour ones have ignored and stigmatised this group for far too long, and this is their reward for that.

  12. @Somerjohn

    Have replied on previous thread. Put simply, you’re just focusing on the exchange rate issue, which you feel you can mitigate by joining at a favourable rate. But you still ignore the other benefits of being outside the euro: setting interest rates to suit, and borrowing cheaply and QE, and even the exchange rate is of limited benefit, because it’s the rate with the euro, not other currencies.

  13. The poll tracking all seems to be going a bit Indyref doesn’t it?

  14. Thinking about the possibility of a snap back. I would assume that a precondition would be a united well organised campaign is required in order to encourage the snap? Remain appears anything but (is that fair?). I guess a snap back could happen if we got an eu intervention Ie promise a deal on free moment of labour.?

  15. Crikey.

    Up until today I’d assume Remain would prevail in the end.

    Now I’m thinking this could be a similar result to the AV referendum – something like 58/42 in favour of Leave with a few isolated places like Oxford and Islington voting to Remain. It would no longer surprise me.

  16. @Colin

    I think the resignation of IDS was significant. As someone not involved in party politics, I can only see it from the outside, but it does seem a bit like party memberships of the major parties are trying to reclaim their parties at the moment.

    Even the EU seems to have been hijacked rather…

  17. “The poll tracking all seems to be going a bit Indyref doesn’t it?”

    It doesn’t look the same to me. In the Indyref there were just two isolated polls with tiny Out majorities. The polls were already moving firmly back in the other direction in advance of polling day. The pattern is completely different.

  18. The gap is different, but we had a late surge in the “non-status quo” option peaking a week or so before the vote.

    Of course we know that the winning “status quo” lead in the actual vote was about double that shown in the final polling in the Indyref case.

  19. @Allan Christie

    “Brussels must surely wake up now to the fact that one of its major members really looks like giving them the boot and slow down on it’s ever increasing integration”

    ———

    Well, they could actually increase integration in one important respect: increase investment in the poorer economies, which would stem immigration and provide more trading opportunities.

    Because as Alec pointed out in the previous thread, the reason for all the migration is that the new entrants’ economies are out of step.

    Leaving things as they are benefits companies that use the cheap labour to ensure profits, rather than innovating etc.

  20. @Allan C.

    I mean, when Germany was reunited, they didn’t leave East Germany as it was, and just use the cheap labour, leaving East Germany like Detroit or summat, they piled investment into East Germany…

  21. @Carfrew
    It also benefits our elite masters who are now able to obtain Gardeners, cleaners, plumbers etc etc at much cheaper rates.

  22. CARFREW

    I think this Referendum is cutting across traditional Party divides actually.

    I think that’s the key point-both major Parties at Westminster with rUK representation advocate Remain-and it looks like they will both be rejected.

    No doubt there will be realignments within the Parties afterwards, which will clearly involve Party Members. But at present Party Members -a very small proportion of the Electorate-are on the sidelines. This is above Party Politics.

  23. I wonder how much the expected last minute ‘fall back to status quo’ effect is relevant to the particular arguments in this referendum. In the Scottish vote the status quo situation of staying with the Union was unlikely to change in the future, and indeed would manifestly be improved by Westminster promises of more devolved powers and other assorted last minute ‘bribes’.
    In the EU debate a persuasive central plank of the Leave argument is that there is no remain status quo, the EU political project will continue to gain speed in defence of the Euro, the semi-detached UK will increasingly find itself sidelined. The EU bureaucracy and democratic deficit is not seen as a positive even amongst ‘remainers’
    A key driver in the poll swing to Leave appears to be the immigration debate, again the status quo is clear and unattractive to many, more unlimited uncontrolled immigration. With regard to the economy the polls moved towards Leave after Cameron and Osborne and their collective expert witnesses had fired their economic warnings. Much of the vote Leave impetus, certainly in the north is precisely because they are unhappy now with the status quo.
    Furthermore to many older voters a return to ‘the status quo’ is Britain before the EU.

  24. If Anthony is correct and the DK’s go with Remain, where does that then leave us, in terms of the overall vote percentage?

  25. Leave has become the new status quo.

  26. @Colin

    I agree, the referendum is above party politics. But WITHIN the parties, Lab, Lib, and Con, there had come to be a quasi-neolib consensus at the top, which had taken over, and one perhaps sees similar in the EU, and the referendum response is a symptom of that.

    The referendum ITSELF is a symptom of it, Cameron having to offer it to appease.

  27. These are very significant poll movements, and while there is still disagreement about the actual position, I think I’m correct in stating that all polls have now shown a distinct and dramatic movement in a single direction.

    I still believe there may be some drift back to remain, as this is still seen by many as the safer option, but if many of these polls are correct, the swingback will need to be quite substantial, especially as DK’s seem to be breaking for Leave. I feel Remain desperately need to address the positives of EU membership. One more ridiculous threat and they could well be out of the game altogether, such is the self inflicted damage to their own credibility by their campaign tactics.

  28. @COUPER2802

    “The Remain campaign have made little or no attempt to address people’s concerns.”

    ———–

    They had a response, in theory, limiting freedom of movement. But the big business lobby now so influential, wouldn’t necessarily see that as being in their interests.

    They perhaps instead could have gone with capital transfers, increased investment in the poorer economies, because at least then some might benefit from the increased trade. This might directly benefit those companies more active abroad, but since it would benefit our economy also, local business would benefit too. But this is perhaps a bit abstract, and removed. The attractions of cheap labour are more obvious…

    .

  29. CARFREW

    Not sure what that means to be honest-but no matter :-).

    I agree that Cameron offered the Referendum for Party reasons-looking like Farage is going to win that one.

  30. On the Remain campaign, in terms of speaking the voters’ language, I’m not sure Corbyn wouldn’t be the best frontman for Remain.

    Would:

    “I suppose I might give it a seven out of ten at a push. We probably ought to grudgingly stay in, it’s got a few important good bits amongst the bad.”

    resonate better with the natural impulse of the electorate compared to:

    “The EU is the cornerstone of everything good in civilisation. We can’t go back to the stone age.”

    ?

  31. “General Elections don’t change anything, but this referendum might” seems to be a common sentiment.

    If the polls still look like this the day before the vote, it’s all over. There won’t be a quebec-style swing because the fundamental drivers and the underlying VI motivations favour leave.

  32. This also doesn’t account for the ludicrous Geldof own goal yesterday that everybody I talked to has found appalling. Rich people and socialites abusing fisherman will have lost a lot of votes.

    Mark my words, Juncker will panic and offer something next week. What I don’t know.

  33. I can see why some of the people are feeling this way, I used to work for a very large international company, in my time there I see all 22 vacancies that came up over the years go to Polish workers.

    These were semi skilled positions that were very well paid, over 1000 applicants for each job and not one British person found to be good enough.

    I had a great relationship with the Poles but that figure is just not right.

  34. @Colin

    “No doubt there will be realignments within the Parties afterwards, which will clearly involve Party Members. But at present Party Members -a very small proportion of the Electorate-are on the sidelines. This is above Party Politics.”

    I agree with this and I think all the major parties, but primarily Labour and Tories, have greatly overstated their capacity to call the faithful home on the EU membership issue. It’s even possible that their appeals to the “Tory vote” and the “Labour vote” have only encouraged these voters to rebel out of bloody-mindedness and reject the lazy assumption that they would obey their masters. People don’t usually like being taken for granted, especially on issues that don’t break along a neat left v right spectrum. There are centre right arguments for and against membership and centre left ones too that cut both ways and the idea that people who tend to vote in general elections in this linear way would repeat the behaviour in a plebiscite on the EU was always ill-conceived.

    Where I think Cameron and the Tories have a particular problem is that he’s the PM, and they’re the governing party, when the music stops on June 24th. Cameron, and ipso facto his government, will be blamed for the chaos and mess that ensues and I think emotions on the EU run far more strongly within the Tory Party than any other. Labour will have lessons to learn too, but it’s always best to learn those in the relative peace and obscurity of opposition.

  35. I read an article the other day, in the Times I think, in which it was pointed out that along with the free movement of people goes the free movement of JOBS.

    Some jobs are more moveable than others. If you need a plumber urgently, you’re prolly not going to wait for one to drive over from Prague or summat.

    At the more lucrative end of the jobs market however, the UK and esp. London has done rather well out of seeing jobs move here, notably in finance but also other sectors. Obviously these peeps may see free movement as being more in their interests…

  36. @Coups

    In my response to ya, I meant the EU response, since clearly the Remain campaign response within the UK is to the greater extent hampered by the EU.

    That said, they could in principle have offered more housing, services, infrastructure to cope with immigration. But whether that would still leave concerns about cultural impact of immigration, ecological impact, plus democracy concerns.

    And it kinda highlights the scale of the Immigration to come…

  37. I hope nothing changes on free movement of Labour. I’m torn between retiring in the south of France and Spain.

    Relocation Relocation Relocation will have a new feel to it if the choices are. Stay in London or move for a new life in Bognor..

  38. @Colin

    It means that just as you get battles between Blairites and Corbynistas, you get battles between the Conservative equivalents!! Perhaps neolibs versus one nation types.

    Of course, with Lib Dems peeps didn’t bother battling the orange bookers, they just deserted.

  39. Colin

    “No doubt there will be realignments within the Parties afterwards”

    I imagine so. In the Scottish context, there are already briefings of journalists from “Lib-Dem sources” (and I could probably have a decent guess as to who they are!) that a UK Brexit could cause a split in the SLD, as some move towards supporting an indy Scotland in that scenario.

    “Pandora’s box” comes to mind – though judging by Farage in front of that UKIP poster on immigration, it seems more likely that a man than a woman released evil into the world!

  40. EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 42% (-2)
    Leave: 45% (+7)
    (via Survation, phone / 15 Jun)

    And only 1 week to go.

  41. Howdy folks – I haven’t been about much lately so I’m sure I’ve missed very interesting and exciting meaningful discussion of the polls – or a load of partisan claptrap ;) To be honest, the football is infintely more exciting than the referendum campaign – and I’ve largely switched off the noise and bluster of the campaign.

    It’s clear from the polls (even if they are not correct!) that there has been a significant shift to Leave – I imagine predominantly due to the relentless negativity of the Remain campaign and the lack of desire of the Labour party to really get involved. The primary hope for Remain, in my view, is that differential turnout (as indicated by some polls) is heavily weighted towards ABC1 and that newly-registered voters turn out in significant numbers. Although it’s purely anecdotal, I don’t get the impression that the turnout will be high at all. There’s plenty of noise and fury on the InterWeb, often from people I’m not convinced would be able to read the ballot paper, but from local canvassers that I’m friendly with, there’s a very large number of people who are genuinely not bothered by the whole affair. It’s been a very low information campaign, as I’ve said before, and the “blue-on-blue” moniker, widely used by the media, is the main message that’s come through.

    I hope this bit isn’t partisan – it’s meant to be reflective.

    At the end of it all, the Conservative party will have emerged from this campaign disunited on what it is that they stand for. There’s a very stark difference between the “one-nation” pro-business and socially liberal wing of the party (the Rockefeller Republican wing) and the socially conservative isolationist wing (Tea Party wing). There are some senior Tories who are trying to stay on the rope in the middle (argually Boris Johnson has sprung directly across the rope!), but this campaign has, in my view, been more damaging to the Tories than the bickering of the Major years. During that time, although there were open disagreements about Maastricht and the Social Chapter, the party appeared to be in general agreement over the domestic agenda. Now, this is clearly not the case, and the backbench willy-waving that went on during the last Parliament has increased in volume. This isn’t an insurmountable problem, but the next leader of the Conservatives will have to deal with a Conservative party which is more ideologically divided since probably the time of Balfour (ironically about free trade). Anyhow, that’s enough of a rant. Next issue: Should Rooney be in the starting XI? ;)

  42. There is still a week to go before the EU referendum vote. Unlike the posters here, and unlike the people who are featured in the campaign, the general public are not obsessed with European politics.

    What is the status quo? That is to remain a member of EU as we have been for the last forty years.

    If you look at where the money is, it is betting on remain If you look at business,(which funds through taxes and donations, all the campaigns, all the politicians and all the think tanks), business surveys of small and large businesses show that the remain is the option favoured by business.

    Remain were well in the lead on phone polls until recently. Given that the general public are not that interested in European politics, it looks as if the remain campaign is performing badly, compared with the leave campaign.

    There are campaigners in the leave campaign who show passion for the leave strategy. Certainly David Cameron does not strike me as passionate for the remain strategy. I saw Chuka Oumuna (sorry about the spelling) former Labour front bench spokesman on TV. He was cheerful and convincing. He had answers to the points raised by the leave campaign. He is a contrast to David Cameron who seems to be doing it because he has to,and he does n’t do enough, because he won’t debate with leave campaigners who are Tories. Let’s have some proper campaigning from both sides.

    Years ago, prime minister Asquith was forced to resign as PM because he was n’t forceful enough to direct the campaign to win the First World War. Neville Chamberlain was forced to resign for lack of success in the Second World War. It looks as if the remain campaign need a new leader, if David Cameron is indeed the leader of the remain campaign.

  43. The remain campaign may well win, even without David Cameron debating with fellow Conservatives.

  44. The polls are now pointing to a leave vote: what is the level of undecided voters on this poll? If the don’t knows are still a significant percentage then a sufficient swing-back to Remain is a possibility. However if that number of “don’t knows” is shrinking then it would appear that Leave has run the more successful campaign.
    The real question for Remain supporters revolves around the relative (apparent) failure of negativity in campaigning, can a positive case be put at this late stage or has the well been poisoned beyond rescue?

  45. Populus (and perhaps other pollsters) are running a last-minute poll on the 23rd, with the result coming out after polls close.

    These day-of-poll polls are the real test of the pollsters’ methodologies so, hopefully, lots of them will be conducting similar ones.

  46. @adg3,

    Before the last election, the betting was on a hung parliament, then labour win. Betting doesn’t always get things right.

    Rich

  47. O me Miserum….

  48. How many more polls are there to come before the big day?

    Can anyone verify Andrew Pierce’s claim this morning on LBC that observers have seen some of the postal votes and they point to Leave?

  49. I think where the status quo position is seems to be up for considerable debate.

    For young people, this is clearly for remaining. They’ve never known anything else and for much of the Labour years the EU was well liked. However, young people are already heavily remainers – and I don’t think there’ll be a status quo swing amongst the small percentage of younger voters that are currently saying they’ll vote leave.

    For the older people, many of them will remember a time before the EU at all, and for most of the European Project’s history, it hasn’t been the EU we know today. The status quo for them may very well be outside the EU, and they may wear their nostalgia goggles which reinforces this.

    For those who are middle-aged, the status quo may not exist. They’ll have spent equal amounts of time inside the much more reserved EEC as they have in the EU. To them they’ll have both sides of the coin, the status quo of the past and the status quo of today.

    It could be argued that these status quo positions are already seen in the polls – heavy remain for the young, split for the middle-aged and heavy leave for the old. Any status quo swing from one side could be negated by a different status quo swing from the other. But let’s not forget that the old are much more likely to vote than the young.

  50. @alan,

    Surprised at that, thought it was secret.

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