Ipsos MORI’s telephone poll for the Standard is out and now also shows Leave ahead. Topline figures are LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47% among likely voters. On paper this is a huge shift – MORI’s previous poll had an eighteen point lead for Remain among all voters (which was the headline figure reported), and would have had a fourteen point Remain lead among likely voters. Part of the difference is methodology change, MORI are now accounting for turnout and have started weighting by education (Ben Page suggests this boosted Leave by three points) but even accounting for that it is still another poll showing a hefty movement towards Leave.

Since the beginning of June all of the polls released have shown the horserace somewhere between a tight race and a clear Leave lead. The last polls to show clear Remain leads were ORB and Survation back at the end of May – ORB now have the race neck-and-neck, Survation have a poll out later today which I’d expect to echo other companies in showing a shift towards Leave.


882 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – LEAVE 53%, REMAIN 47%”

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  1. Bantams

    Don’t you think a Brexit debate encourages nationalism and might make matters worse ?

    I don’t think the EU makes any diffence in regard to increase in public support for extremist parties. Politicians have failed to provide answers to the problems in their own countries and it is often nothing to do with the EU. The EU is not stopping house building in the EU to deal with the shortage. The ecomomic failures in different countries are homegrown and not much to do with the EU. Most of the countries had issues before the Euro was introduced.

  2. If a terrorist subscribes to a cause, that cause will usually lose public sympathy.

  3. Was the person who did the murder mentally ill? Almost certainly yes.

    Did the way the referendum was being conducted provide a pretext, spur or opportunity for the murder? Very probably. Both sides have raised the emotional temperature, not least by appealing to fear (we’ll go bankrupt and world war three will break out v. we will be swamped by Turks and under the heel of our German foes for ever more)

    Did either side want the murder to take place? I find this unbelievable.

    Will it affect the result of the vote? Don’t know, If it does, it will be more because it provides a pause, time for reflection and a break on the Brexit bandwagon.

    Are some people on both sides trying to make capital out of this or limit the damage caused by it? Very likely (Look how disgusting the leave camp are they are trying to make capital out of this, and clearly haven’t learnt the lessons of Madrid, v look at how the lies told by the Brexit camp have inflamed the temperature and urged on the extremist supporters they can now deny)

  4. In an attempt to move on to polling.

    Like others here of both sides, it seems difficult to logically assert that the sad events of the last few days would have an effect on voter intention one way or the other, especially on the VI of the those already determined in their decisions.

    However, the murder, followed by the suspension of campaigning, which seems likely to continue until after the recall of parliament on Monday and affect the tenure of rest of the run up to the vote appears to have affected the national mood substantially.

    Those political obsessives of us who congregate here would do well to look at the occasional polls of which news stories the public recall from the previous week. I remember one particularly busy time of political ferment when a tragically fatal ‘runaway’ refuse truck dominated the public imagination to the cost of all else. I hazard that this story will have similarly cut through.

    This ‘change in the weather’ makes it tricky for pollsters and pundits alike for a number of reasons:

    + could it affect turnout negatively as people are afraid to enter into ‘political spaces’?

    + could it affect turnout positively – a groundswell in favour of a making a point by a group of voters, particularly one like younger voters normally disinclined to vote?

    + will social media come in to play, whether we like it or not, could online campaigns coalesce in the absence of a formal campaign?

    + does this period of reflection – similar to the election silences in many other countries – favour the status quo?

    + does the unsettling nature of the incident also favour the status quo – cling on to nurse in fear of something worse?

    + contrary wise does a feeling of insecurity lead people to the conclusion that Britain would be better ‘in control of her own affairs’?

    I know all of these considerations seem absurd to those of us with closely held beliefs, but many, many who will vote, do not have such clear opinions. DKs do seem to be more swayed by sentiment than other groups, and people will often tell you that they voted for the most ‘irrational’ or, more precisely, emotional reasons. If DKs hold the balance in this referendum, it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult for anyone to call a this stage.

  5. Well….mental illness or not. The murderer seems to have made it very clear which side he’s on regarding this referendum. I’m still not convinced it will sway anyone’s vote, however.

  6. Fascinating to read of other posters decisions.

    Here, things remain exceedingly difficult. Mrs A has tilted towards remain in the lst week, but is still actively considering adding a third box to tick, with the words ‘properly reformed and democrtatic EU please’ alongside it, so may yet be a spoilt ballot paper, on the grounds that what she wants is not on offer.

    I remain deeply, deeply conflicted. I am not overly concerned about what might or might not happen in terms of UK legislation if we leave. If we retain a government determined to shed environmental protection and workers rights, we’ll get what we deserve. If the vote is to leave, the fight for a better life really starts, and the result will be in our own hands.

    Economically, life outside will be tough to start with, but overall it won’t be too bad in the longer run. I would expect migration of some city trade to Frankfurt, which has disruptive impacts initially, but wouldn’t it be great to get rid of some of the distorting effects of an overbearing and destabilizing financial sector, and get back to a more balanced economy? Overall, this would do us good.

    I am, however, genuinely concerned about the impact on Europe of brexit. I take the concerns of future conflict seriously, and do wonder what the impact would be on national cooperation and engagement. The timing and tone of this campaign is far from ideal, and consequences may flow from this that no one will be happy with.

    Equally, when I see the Eurozone and the instigation of a multi speed EU, and no sign whatsoever that there is a recognition in Brussels that limitations needs to be set on EU ambitions, both territorially and in terms of policy, I can’t see a viable future for the EU without a major eruption of tension across the continent. Put simply, the EU will not continue to function safely because of the structural inadequacies that member staes have allowed to form.

    Since Icarus flew too close to the sun in mythical times, over reach and zealous ambition has been the downfall of very many noble human endeavours. Remainers should not be so sanguine that the EU is a fixed, stable and safe option.

    And so I find myself conflicted as at no other election in my lifetime. For a man used to having clear and strongly help convictions, this is deeply unsettling for me. I had thought that I would have assessed the issues and made my choice by this stage, but it now feels like it may well be in the booth when I sum up the courage to roll the dice with my mark.

    It feels, to dip into religions metaphor, like a terrible cross to bear.

  7. Ambivalent supporter: “Obviously you haven’t read the Guardian and seen some MP’s comments. Or been reading this thread.”

    As I said, there isn’t much implying going on. It’s more straightforward than that. People are drawing the obvious conclusion and talking about it. Like Doreen Lawrence:

    “Of course, there are many people who honestly believe we should leave the EU for perfectly honourable reasons. But it is quite another thing to deliberately stir up hatred; to play on people’s fears and manipulate them to your advantage; to sow the seeds of division in our communities; to make us suspicious of our neighbours and legitimise the arguments of the angry fringes. We must be better than this. We have to raise the tone and find a better language for our arguments. But most of all, we must not let those who pander to prejudice, and stoke up fear and anger, win.”

    That’s not implying anything. It’s telling it like it is.

  8. @Somerjohn,

    I beg to differ. I guess that’s partly because you sympathise with the remain cause, whilst I am a leaver.

  9. Assiduosity

    Good post.

    I’d add your list a question about the potential impact of two or three days of prominent Remainers and the political establishment and its values in general receiving a clear and unchallenged run of broadly sympathetic media coverage – a counter narrative to the one which has fuelled much of the campaign so far.

  10. The polling stations close in a little over 132 hours time, in between times we have 2 outsiders (to the UK) who will likely give their views, Junckers and Trump. Junckers will not be believed whatever he says and it is likely to further infuriate Leave supporters, Trump will be ignored by the vast majority of the electorate although the Remain campaign press may try utilising any utterances he makes against the leave campaign.

    Of the two Junckers is likely to have the biggest impact I think on the electorate, however this is likely to be negative for the Remain campaign with voters.

    The atrocity this week will perhaps influence a few voters, but I think we are looking at circa. 2% at most, and 1% of them will already be Remain supporters hence any change come polling day from this event will be restricted to a 1% swing in favour of Remain – and that is if all those who change their mind do actually vote.

    Finally the PV is already mostly done, so those who vote by post will not be affected by either Juncker’s or Trump’s visit and utterances on this subject and most will have voted before the events of Thursday.

    Given the above I still think that the likelihood is for Leave to win the referendum by circa 55% of the vote.

  11. D’oh! “I’d add to your list…”

  12. Hawthorn – “If a terrorist subscribes to a cause, that cause will usually lose public sympathy.”

    Sadly this is true. It is a bit like the Rotherham stuff – the wrong person sounded the alarm, which meant the whole thing went on for a decade longer than it should have, because decent people felt, “I don’t want to be associated with him”. And who you associate with is always given more weight than “is there any truth in this”.

    It’s like the whole “I don’t want to stand on the same stage as Tories” in the Scottish referendum. Because who you are positioned relative to is more important than the question being asked.

  13. Hawthorn’s comments like this sum it up with some remainers:-

    “If a terrorist subscribes to a cause, that cause will usually lose public sympathy.”

    If they paint this picture, that’s fine. Problem is that there is the danger that the leave campaign will weaponise this by letting the public know that what they are effectively saying is that anyone who dislikes the EU and is worried about immigration is racist and subscribes to this maniac’s cause. I think this would anger a significant proportion of the general public.

    Like I said, remain has to take at least 50% of the blame for the hatred caused by the referendum. I’d personally say more. Anyway, it’s not up to us on us here to decide – it’s now down to the public. The general tone of the posts on this thread means that I won’t be contributing to this debate anymore.

  14. @Pete B

    Thanks for the comment.

    In turn, I have always felt that your position, essentially one of wishing to locate sovereignty more exclusively in the UK – for the reasons you clearly outline – is a perfectly respectable and cohesive one.

    If only the whole debate could have been conducted along these lines. Options explored and examined, with the view of achieving greater clarity and an informed decision.

    Instead we have reached this rather parlous state of affairs. Of lies and half truths being exchanged and a culture of malevolent discontent masquerading as political discourse.

  15. Having recently talked to a friend from the non cosmopolitan london area but the midlands I found her views interesting-shes tipping to leave mostly due to immigration and self government issues but most of her anger is towards Cameron for calling what she called an unnecessary referendum
    She will probably vote leave but feels she isnt in a position to make a sensible judgement and would rather not have had to make a choice

  16. Assiduosity – “However, in light of the public statement made in court by the accused this morning, could we please stop the constant attempts to portray him as having nothing to do with a set of extreme, vile and violent political positions.”

    There is no doubt at all that the murderer is a neo-nazi. And there is also no doubt that remainers are trying to guilt half the population into voting Remain by implying they are neo-nazis too if they don’t.

    I admit I felt relieved this morning to discover he was Scottish from Kilmarnock. I thought, bloody Scots, coming over here, killing our MPs, and felt better at once.

    Does that encapsulate the tribalism underlying this debate?

  17. @ Candy

    You really are almost entirely lacking in self awareness.

    I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here, but I find your comments beyond the pale.

    My whole statement was prefaced by the comment that I hope no one would assert that legitimate views relating to the referendum should be connected to this awful crime, yet you seek to contort it into this unspeakably crass nonsense?

    I suggest you go and have a good hard look at yourself.

  18. I’m not sure I ever saw anyone trying to claim that this attack wasn’t linked to far-right extremism. Quite a few people, including me, said it was wrong to jump to conclusions and that it might take time for the facts to emerge. Even assuming that the police caught the right person is dangerous.

    The comments in court seem to remove some of the doubt. But we still don’t really know what prompted the attack. And as OldNat has pointed out, we shouldn’t speculate publicly. One of us might be a on a jury at a trial or inquest to make that decision, and we should do so on the basis of what evidence the police have assembled and put in front of us.

    I have to go into town, so will update the straw poll later. Looks like we’re probably somewhere close to evens I think.

  19. Tully: “most of her anger is towards Cameron for calling what she called an unnecessary referendum”

    I think many of us can sympathise with her sentiment, while drawing the opposite conclusion. Cameron promised a referendum in an attempt to buy off Tory eurosceptics with an empty gesture. It was a weak and pusillanimous move, which came unstuck when his expectation that he’d be let off the hook by his continuing Lib Dem coalition partners, was confounded by his unexpected electoral victory.

    To react to the appeasement of eurosceptics – unnecessary if Cameron had shown a bit of backbone – by voting for Brexit is in my view rather sad.

  20. @Assiduosity

    I was being sarcastic and trying to illustrate the tribalism underlying this whole thing.

    The Remain people are using poor Ms Cox’s death to assert that the Leave people caused her death to atone they must vote for the European superstate.

    The message is very much “It is not about the pros and cons of the European Union, but who you associate with”. Sovereignty be damned the only thing important is virtue signalling that you are in the “right” tribe.

    I get that Remain feel that as they were behind, this is their one and only chance to stop the Leave momentum and they must grab it and use poor Ms Cox for all they are worth (they’ve even started emailing out her articles on the referendum, because of course the views of a dead lady are worth more than everyone else’s), but at what cost?

  21. I think @candy has a valid point. You can’t on the one hand say ‘ow look where politics has brought us, it’s all so aggressive and underhand’, then at the same time subtlety imply through all means possible that you must vote one way, the way I want, using that event as justification.

  22. Final thing;

    Anybody who grabs one event for political capital and to push their narrative, risks losing the argument when a new event comes along and doesn’t fit your narrative.

  23. @ Neil A

    Can I cut and paste your reasons for voting leave? Amazing how I almost never disagree with your posts despite generally being on the opposite side of the political spectrum- obviously one of us comes to the wrong conclusions and it can’t be me!

    So until we stop building on ever more Green land I will continue to be of the belief that we are “full up” (despite the bad connotations of that phrase). Like you I don’t care if the country is made up of 2/3rds eastern Europeans I just want the population to be stable.

    Most other issues to do with the EU referendum are mainly pros and cons that largely balance out, although the lack of ability for European voters to elect a president and legislation proposing body on a manifesto every 5 years might still have swung me to leave.

  24. @Rich

    What the Remain side should ask themselves is this: Would they have been emailing out Ms Cox’s articles on the referendum if she hadn’t been killed? The answer is No. Nobody had heard of her before Thursday. She wasn’t a “rising star”, she was a Liz Kendall supporter who had no career prospects in Corbyn’s party and with many years of being called “red tory” to look forward to.

    They’re emailing out her articles because she is dead, her murder being more important than the content, because they are trying to use it to guilt people into voting Remain.

  25. @ Candy

    You may not have heard of Jo Cox before last Thursday, but it is patently untrue to claim she ‘had no career prospects’. There are many non-Corbynite people in the Shadow Cabinet, and given that Jo Cox was clearly very capable and articulate, she could reasonably have been expected promotion in the coming years.

  26. We’re back in the gutter again here.

  27. I feel sympathy for the lady who felt that she had never been asked the question. Everyone on this site believes they have logical reasons (well perhaps not all, TOH acknowledges he is a romantic but even he says that his basic gut sentiment is buttressed by sound logic). Given that this is the case (and obviously with posters here it is the case) it is amazing how little logical argument the campaign has involved.

    On the one side the Remain camp has put forward apparently reasoned economic cases for remaining. There have been lengthy apparently reasoned reports from the LSE, IMF, Treasury, NFER and so on. These may well be wrong = economists show a remarkable tendency to be wrong en masse – but the leave side simply rubbishes them as mistaken, biased, or self-serving. Argument is not involved.

    On the other side the Leave camp have a solid argument that in the EU one can’t have the single market without free movement of Labour and that this means we do not have full control of our borders. In its own terms there is no answer to that. However, there is room for debate about whether the perceived costs of immigration are correct and irremediable and whether the price we would pay for stopping immigration from the EU would be high and simply result in more immigration from elsewhere. I am not aware that these issues have been addressed either.

    The problem really is that the referendum bundles up a whole set of issues which ideally are not all considered together or at the same time, In this respect Mrs A is clearly right. She probably needs to learn to write very small and somehow insert her message in the single box that is opposite remain. (As I understand it, it is only if the writing is outside the box that the vote is invalid. Indeed a person who inserted a picture of a penis in the box of the candidate he particularly disliked was paradoxically held to have voted for him because the writing was within the box)

  28. Leave 51%
    Remain 44%
    Abstain 5%

    @Shevii and Ambivalent,

    You’re very kind. I like to think I approach things objectively, albeit through the prism of my own personal experiences and preoccupations. Development of green space has caused me a level of emotional pain that borders on physical sickness, and it always have. Even when I am in a beautiful, well-ordered town or city, there is a little part of me that’s thinking “I bet this was gorgeous when it was a wooded valley, what a shame they built houses here, oh well at least they’re nice houses”. Whilst I don’t wish any harm to anyone (well, almost anyone) I can truthfully say I wish half the people on the planet hadn’t been born. If they hadn’t there are thousands of square miles of habitat that would still be occupied by wildlife, thousands of cubic miles of sea that would still have fish in them and thousands of extinct species that would still be around.

    Observations from Plymouth City Centre.

    The Vote Leave campaign may be on hiatus, but smaller outfits don’t appear to have got the memo. Lexit stand was in full swing today, manned largely by Socialist Workers I think. And there was an elderly gent in a Union Jack shirt doing a sort of one-man Brexit show. No Remainers around. But then I think Plymouth is probably a solid Brexit city.

    @Assiduosity,

    Can I just add my voice to the admiration of your ability to express the positive case for Remain. As I’ve already said I share a lot of the love for the EU, but I just think it’s derailed itself and we need to jump off before it crashes. Both this referendum and the IndyRef suffered sorely from eloquent voices being drowned out by thuggish ones, and or cost/benefit “cash and carry” arguments.

  29. Well I am surprised that the number of posters that gave me a hard time for being a ‘narrow nationalist’ during the indyref have turned out themselves to be by their own definition ‘narrow nationalists’.

  30. surely there must be some more polls this Sunday?? Seems an awful long time since the last one.

  31. The Other Howard,
    “All of that could equally be said of the remain campaign. Both Remain and leave have conducted truly awful campaigns.”

    One of the things I most liked about Farage when he began to be noticed was that he was speaking truths about the EU which other politicians refused to pick up. it is far from perfect. Unfortunately in the campaigning truth has gone by the wayside. The tactic developed by leave has been to lie, and then when challenged by expert opinion on the other side, to attack those experts as unreliable even though the same politicians on leave have relied upon these same experts in the past. Their strategy has been to claim it is their opponents lying, not them. It is fair game to say what your opinion is about the future, but not to misrepresent the facts such as they are. My assessment is that leave are the ones arguing for a major change, and the onus of proof is on them to show it would be a better future. They have simply been lying about the major issues of economy and immigration. And in the process stirring up fears which have now led to Jo Cox death. This has to be the tip of an iceberg.

    Dave,
    Yes, a system designed to create one outright winner is likely to create a winner without majority support. The trouble is the actual proportion of support has dwindled and dwindled, not just on votes cast but also on people who bother to vote or bother to register. The result has been governments with steadily decreasing national support and this is neither democratic nor acceptable as it gets steadily worse. The only solution is a proportional system so we have a parliament of many parties who then have to form coalitions.

    The EU is slow to take decisions because it is designed to be limited in its areas of competence, with all the members having major vetoes over what it can do. It is not the unstoppable conqueror leave claim.

    Bantams,
    “Completely agree, they can’t rationally explain making a once in a lifetime decision that affects 65,000,000 people by basing it a once in a lifetime tragedy.”
    Oh yes they do! Speaking to people, many have single and to my mind frankly untrue reasons for their choice. But although hopefully this is the only MP we shall see murdered over this, I have noticed some very nasty reactions. This has become for many a vote about immigration with all the traditional associated propaganda.

  32. Hi at my trading desk. Just heard hedge funds own exit poll has remain win. markets moving on this.

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