Two more polls today, two more significant swings towards Leave:

  • TNS’s latest poll, conducted online, has topline figures of REMAIN 40%(-1), LEAVE 47%(+4), Undecided or Wouldn’t Vote 13%(-3). The changes since their previous poll in mid-May probably understate the move towards Leave a little as TNS have made some adjustments to their methodology (asking about postal votes and if people are registered and weighting by attitudes towards immigration). Under the old methodology the poll would have shown a ten point lead for leave. Tabs are here.
  • A new ComRes telephone poll for the Sun has topline figures of REMAIN 46%(-6), LEAVE 45%(+4), Don’t know 9%(+2). Again, we see the same strong movement towards Leave that we’ve seen in other polls since the end of May.

The recent shift in favour of Leave is now undeniable, but the polls are still inconsistent in terms of whether that shift has left Leave with a clear lead, or the race neck-and-neck. Opinium and ComRes now have the race neck-and-neck; YouGov, ICM and TNS have Leave in the lead (and ORB have both, depending on if you look at their figures for all voters, or likely voters).

The result now depends on whether there is a shift back towards the status quo over the final week (or indeed, on the day itself). If you think back to the Scottish referendum there was a movement towards YES in the month before, and then Scottish voters swung back towards NO over the last fortnight. That movement towards the status quo on the final straight is a common pattern in referendums across the globe: as it gets close to polling day some voters recoil from the perceived risks of whatever unknown they are voting upon. Time will tell if we see a similar pattern over the next week and a bit.


277 Responses to “TNS and ComRes both show swings to Leave”

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  1. @ Laszlo

    I’m not quite sure which comments you mean… about TTIP? I was trying to report what I observe, not what I believe.

    I agree with you that ‘that behind the leave there are a lot of angry people’… and that it is a highly disparate coalition.

    My position is that there will be a mess/a price to pay regardless of the referendum outcome. I am really concerned about the impact in the EU countries if the UK leaves… but I am also really concerned about the next moves of this extremely right wing govt and the EU elites if there is a remain vote. I am fully alive to the toxic shifting of blame onto immigrants for the failures of the last 36y of govt… and that Golden Dawn may well be the response of the Greek people to the Troika’s punitive experiment in financial neocolonialism.

    So what is the way through this? Btw I have never been a social democrat. I wouldn’t even call myself a socialist.

  2. Some familial anecdotal evidence:

    My parents, voting Liberal for a lifetime, have surprised me in voting for Leave.
    My brother has also surprised me for voting for Remain.

    They are not the political of people (making them normal) but my parents said the Cameron pensions threat pushed them over, they feel like they are being blackmailed by their own prime minister.

    Now anecdotes are anecdotes, but at least in conversations I have, it feels like Cameron and Osborne have gone too far. Third time unlucky for Project Fear perhaps?

  3. If accurate could this have a significant an impact on the result?

    A fresh BMG Research poll, commissioned by the Electoral Reform Society, finds only 62% of voters say they will definitely cast a ballot next week. There’s a chasm between wealthier voters (67% say they’ll certainly vote) and poorer ones (just 55%).

    It also found that 22% of voters felt “well” or “very well” informed about the referendum. Would it cheer you up if I told you that’s a rise of six percentage points since the same question was polled in February?

  4. Syzygy

    For many in the remain camp a strong argument is about the solidarity of the working people across Europe. Avoiding a race to the bottom. Maintaining good standards of employment rights. Avoiding environmental pollution through the use of important common trading standards.

  5. SYZYGY

    :-) That’s the point they all reach Sue. Which is why I refuse to buy a ticket in this Lottery.

  6. Just heard Andrew Pearce on LBC claim that observers have been opening postal votes and they give a big lead for leave. Can anyone confirm/deny the veracity of this claim?

  7. Tully

    That’s not what John Mann said on DP yesterday. He said that traditional working class labour voters, for whom their party no longer speaks, are angry and will vote out in vast numbers. He predicted turnout in those areas will be the highest for decades.

  8. Bob Geldof would be well advised to keep his boat & his champagne clear of Hastings for a while :-)

  9. @Laszlo

    I don’t think you can say such things don’t matter. It may be true that intolerance is a big issue, but this doesn’t alter the fact that summat like TTIP is a concern also.

    Even if intolerance were the CAUSE of summat like TTIP, and it hasn’t been established that it is, TTIP might still matter, it’s just that one might ideally then solve TTIP by curing intolerance.

    If you can’t find a way to curing intolerance though, then you have to find some way to manage any issues due to TTIP in some other way.

    I would say anyway, regarding intolerance, that the more fundamental thing still, is what causes intolerance, which is things like objectification of peeps, lack of empathy, though even that isn’t enough, because one can see others as objects but not be driven to exploit them, it just makes it easier once you’ve decided to exploit them.

  10. robert newark
    i was referring to a poll not just an opinion
    john mann says a lot of things-mostly whatever comes into his head to promote john mann!

  11. I didn’t see DP yesterday (like others I can’t bear to watch any of it at present) but if John Mann said that, Mandy Rice Davies to you.
    It’s certainly not my experience, which is more that people are grateful to Labour for giving them a lead as they have been confused by all the b*ll*x being spouted on all sides.

  12. @Syzygy

    It does seem to me, looking from the outside, that the faith in the EU to do the right thing regarding TTIP must have been sorely challenged by treatment of Italy and Greece following the Crunch.

    Regarding Cameron and Osborne, I too struggle to get my head around the mindset. Aspects of their behaviour remind me of my time in boarding school , but aspects don’t, because of the Eton thing and the “born to rule” thing, whereas the undercurrent at my school was a bit more “born to serve (The Empire)”.

    In the days of Macmillan, up to Ted Heath, these people served in the army alongside the working man, where they had to learn to understand each other and depended on each other to survive, and that made quite the difference. Macmillan served in the First World War, and his job was to get the letters of the soldiers, which gave him quite the insight…

  13. His job was to VET the letters…

  14. Hypothetical question – we BREXIT but only just, Cameron and Osborne are forced out in BREXIT leadership challenge – whoever wins an dbcomes PM we get a vote of no confidence and a snap GE. What is is GE outcome? Tories are hopelesselsly split, LibDems rock bottom, Labour crawled up a bit – so what will be the result?

  15. After all the warnings about sticking to the site rules posters seem to be wandering very much into the area of partisan political discussion !

  16. I have an anecdote of a man & his female partner who undertook gardening work for people.
    He was always in the leave camp, she was something of a leftie liberal and took many of the same views being expressed here on migration.

    Then over a couple of days she started losing work to Polish migrants who were prepared to do the same job for less money, until instead of working 5 days a week was reduced to 2.5 days.

    She quickly realised that what her boyfriend had been saying was actually true and she has switched allegiance.

    When the leftie liberals come along telling people that they are ‘xenophobic’ or other misused words designed to bully, they don’t seem to care or worry that they are alienating the very people they should be looking to for support.

    It really is a beggar my neighbour approach, of blinkered selfishness. “It hasn’t happened to me, it’s unlikely to happen to me, and I don’t care two figs about the people it has happened to as they’re all xenophobes.”

    That I believe is one of the main reasons why the working people feel such a disconnect with the party which should have been representing them.

    This is one of the major reasons for the support for leave (IMHO)

  17. @Thoughtful

    Completely agree, the Remain campaign have made little or no attempt to address people’s concerns. When raised the person is branded a ‘bigot’ (copyright G Brown). Nicola Sturgeon can say ‘Don’t blame immigrants blame your government’ but Cameron & Osborne can’t. And Labour have largely been MIA, with a leader who is lukewarm at best to the EU.

    As a result the angry and marginalised will be used by Boris et al to further their political ambitions. It is so sad that England doesn’t have a leader they can trust. & sad they are going to leave the EU on a false prospectus. Boris J giving more money to the NHS ye’ jest.

  18. @thoughtful

    The Gospel according to Luke, chapter 4 verse 23.

  19. @Thiughtful

    Anthony has on a number of occasions maintained that peeps can’t avoid being partisan…

  20. Understandably, due to its overwhelming populations size in the UK, the concentration has been on attitudes in England.

    However, polls in Northern Ireland and Scotland do show a very different set of attitudes.

    I had missed this Ipsos-MORI poll in NI from 26 May –

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/eu-referendum/eu-referendum-northern-ireland-says-no-to-brexit-34747509.html

    but “none of the groups based on religion, gender, social background or geographical location were in favour of Brexit.”

    In Scotland, MORI don’t weight by political VI, but they do use the Index of Multiple Deprivation to test opinion in 5 categories of deprivation, from 1 (most deprived to 5 (least deprived).

    In all of these areas, in yesterday’s poll, there is a majority for Remain among all respondents-

    1 – Remain 53% : Leave 26%
    2 – Remain 57% : Leave 37%
    3 – Remain 57% : Leave 38%
    4 – Remain 56% : Leave 34%
    5 – Remain 70% : Leave 28%

    It does look like the passion for Leave in “working class areas”, being reported on here, is very much a phenomenon in the southern part(s) of the UK.

  21. Alec

    This thread’s finished, but for the record, re the inflationary impact of devaluation, there is of course an effect, but I note that the main benefit claimed by proponents of individual currencies is the ability to devalue. As I’ve said previously, the benefits of entering a common currency at a competitive level can only be locked in if cost inflation is kept no higher than that of other member countries.

    I would love to continue this debate, as I do like to challenge accepted wisdom, but this isn’t the place. Carfrew’s posts and responses have the effect of drawing one into a black hole of fractious tit-for-tattery which is in retrospect seldom edifying.

  22. @Somerjohn

    No, the ability to value is not the main benefit claimed, it’s just the only one you feel able to address, by the device of joining the Euro AFTER disaster struck, at a low exchange rate.

    The other benefits, being able to control rates to suit your own economy, being able to borrow cheaply, and print your own money, you kinda wish away, although clearly the likes of Spain and Italy suffered in comparison, unable to print money or borrow as cheaply when it mattered.

    And even the exchange rate, is only lowered with respect to the Euro. If thE Euro itself appreciates against other currencies when your economy needs it cheaper… problems again…

  23. @Somerjohn

    The point being, that should disaster strike again, we would still be constrained in most respects if we joined the Euro, even at a favourable exchange rate.

  24. It wouldn’t surprise me if the murderer of Jo Cox turns out to be a deranged individual with a festering petty grievance relating to something like a frustrated planning application or being chased for council tax arrears. I don’t rule it out, but I’d be surprised if he harboured any national political views that motivated him to kill his local MP. I fear the banality of evil rearing its hideous face again here.

    It is a desperate tragedy, primarily for Jo Cox’s young children and her husband. I have to confess that I knew little about her as a politician before today, but watching the profiles of her on this evening’s news bulletins, she appeared to be exactly the sort of person and politician that this country and our democracy so desperately needs. What a terrible loss.

  25. @Colin

    “So -If you wish UK to leave the European Union , particularly because of concerns over immigration; you are a Racist Nazi.
    ergo- you bare responsibility when an allegedly mentally unstable, allegedly member of a Nazi group , kills an MP.”

    You really do lapse into utter silliness at times. I don’t know if it is a form of self pity, but why are you creating these absurd straw men, especially at a time when sensitivities and emotions are running so high. Who has ever said, let alone implied, these things? If anyone has, they are complete fools, but I have a feeling, having read many of your posts for years now, that you’d create these idiots even if they didn’t exist.

    I suspect, in the febrile and partisan political world you inhabit, these straw men are essential to you. It’s the same world that Mr Haines seems to live in where we now seem it appropriate to make references to anti-Semitism and dodgy expense claims within the Labour Party, only some 24 hours after an MP was murdered.

    Masks are slipping very quickly. Scary.

  26. Not sure if there will be any effect on polls going forward following the shooting of Jo Cox, but the money markets seem to think it will. There was a rise in sterling following the shooting,
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex-sterling-idUKKCN0Z228G

    I also suspect this will confirm in some people’s eyes everything that is wrong with the City

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