YouGov and ORB have new polls in the Tuesday newspapers. YouGov in the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 39%, LEAVE 46%, Don’t know or won’t vote 15%. This equates to an eight point LEAVE lead once the don’t knows are excluded, the largest that YouGov have shown since David Cameron’s draft renegotiation terms were published back in February.

There is also an ORB telephone in the Telegraph. The reporting of ORB polls is somewhat confusing – the Telegraph like to headline the figure for those certain to vote, while ORB have stated that they consider the figure for all voters to be their “headline” figure. Among those certain to vote the new figures are REMAIN 48%(nc), LEAVE 49%(+2). Among all respondents the figure is REMAIN 49%(-3), LEAVE 44%(+4)… hence by ORB’s preferred method they still have leave ahead, but there is significant movement towards Leave.

The movement towards Leave is now pretty clear, the overall lead slightly less so:

  • ICM’s polls by both online and by telephone, are now showing a clear Leave lead, compared to neck-and-neck and a remain lead earlier in the campaign (and that’s despite an online methodology change in late May that helped Remain)
  • The majority of YouGov’s polls are now showing Leave ahead, with tonight’s showing their biggest leave lead for months
  • ORB’s weekly polls have a different side in the lead depending on whether one looks at all voters or certain voters, but either way there has been a clear trend towards Leave. In late May they had Remain leads of 20 points and 13 points respectively, now it’s 5 points and minus 1 point.
  • Opinium are still showing a small Remain lead in their recent polls conducted online, though a significant methodology change to weight by social attitudes disguises another large movement towards Leave.

Everyone is showing a movement towards Leave, but the different methodologies mean that for some pollsters that has produced a clear Leave lead, for other pollsters it has brought the race to a neck-and-neck position. Still to come this week we should have phone polls from ComRes and Ipsos MORI; their previous polls in mid-May had solid Remain leads of 11 and 18 points respectively. It will be interesting to see to what extent the Remain lead will be eroded or eliminated in their polls this week (though again, note the pre-announced changed in MORI’s methodology that will help Leave anyway).

207 Responses to “YouGov and ORB referendum polls”

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  1. On the subject of businesses relocating:

    Whatever company Chairmen / CEOs may say about their preference to Remain, there is little likelihood of them moving across the channel in the event of a Leave vote.

    The main concerns for big businesses are to avoid uncertainty and protect their position. The EU’s Single (but not exactly free) market offers incumbent big businesses stability and protection from competition due to heavy regulation. Brexit, by challenging the status quo, creates uncertainty. That brings risks – which create opportunities for the nimble, but a threat for the inert. Hence bad for big business, but good for smal businesses.

    Given that context, why would any well established company take the major risk and uncertainty of relocating from its home base?

    Talk of relocating or moving jobs is just that. The reality is that business strategies are base on longer time frames. Even those (foreign) companies which take a strategic view to disengage from the UK will only do so over years, not months.

  2. @Muddy Waters

    Yes, the interesting thing is who might be swayed by things like Rolls relocating, over the range of reasons for backing Brexit, from immigration to sovereignty issues, or further integration, concerns about tuff like TTIP, etc. etc.

  3. I see that Osborne says he will give an Emergency Budget should we the people vote to leave the EU. NHS cut, Defence cut, Income tax and Inheritance tax rises, but foreign aid will not be touched.

    Hmmm, now call me blinkered if you will, but from what I see in the polls is that the British people really do not like to be bullied, and now Osborne has announced this. What percentage does he want Leave to win by?

    Anyway, my guess is that by Monday June 27th Osborne will no longer be Chancellor, he will have been forced out and Cameron will be following him either via resignation (it will look dignified) or via a leadership challenge.

  4. ‘Where is Robert Peston saying this about postal votes? I’d be a bit surprised given that it’s illegal…’

    It would only be illegal if specific figures were being touted. I don’t think there would be any problem with generalised comments such as ‘Leave appear to have done very well on the postal votes’.

  5. Why all the talk of working class lab supporters voting leave?
    What about working class tory voters -i know plenty of these?
    And why is it entirely labs fault if they can not change these peoples minds?
    Why is it not Camerons fault for also failing-rather more dramatically actually
    This is the man that called the ref to save his skin,who failed to get meaningful reform and is failing to support his own party supportes to agree with him despite getting massive media coverage
    Obviously his tactics have utterly failed and he just keeps dishing out more of the same
    Seriously the idea that political party supporters will fall in behind a leader on a single issue-does this have any basis?
    People vote in a general election for the best fit and feel party
    They very rarely agree with the party they vote for on every topic
    Whether the ref result influences general election vi depends on strength of feeling

  6. As no one can possibly know the details of postal votes this is clearly a ruse by remain sympathetic commentators to encourage remainers to get out and vote and to make leavers think, we are home and dry, chaps. I can go down the pub rather than cast my vote, cos it’s not needed.

    And please could someone tell Peston to smarten himself up. He and Evan Davis are the scruffiness people on TV. Compare to Tom Bradby et al.

  7. This non budget could be Osborn’s Norman Lemont moment? With remainers looking for the surge, this looks like total panic. Labour partners in the referendum pushed to the front this week have had the ground cut away by this. The message from remain remains chaotic.

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