There are two EU referendum polls in the Sunday papers – YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer. Both of them have the race neck-and-neck: YouGov have REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 51%, Opinium have REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49%. Tables for YouGov are here, for Opinium are here.

In both cases the topline figures are pretty much unchanged from figures a week ago, remaining roughly neck-and-neck. There is certainly no echo of that ten point Leave lead ORB produced on Friday. My guess is that there has been a little movement towards Leave, but perhaps not of the scale suggested by some of the more startling figures, and not necessarily a lasting one. Opinium’s poll a week ago had a significant underlying shift towards Leave, today’s unchanged figures suggest a consolidation of that movement. YouGov on the other hand showed what appeared to be a similar movement towards Leave two weeks ago, but have since moved back towards neck-and-neck.

The bigger picture from the online polls is still that the race is neck-and-neck. Next week we have a new Ipsos MORI telephone poll due – it will be interesting to see what that shows in the light of the movement towards Leave in ICM’s last phone and the methodology changes that MORI announced on Friday.

Meanwhile, the rest of the YouGov poll had some interesting questions on the campaign. Asked which campaign is more honest, makes more negative attacks, is more realistic or which lies the most there is very little difference – Leave’s ratings are marginally better, but by a tiny amount. The big divide is “scaremongering” – 41% think Remain have done more scaremongering, 28% think Leave have done more. Crucially, this comes through in the immigration and economy questions too: 55% think LEAVE have exaggerated in their claims about immigration, but 49% think the underlying claims are basically true. 63% think REMAIN have exaggerated in their claims about the economy and only 40% think the underlying claims are basically true. Perhaps this is a suggestion that Remain are overplaying their hand a little on the economy – or perhaps, a sign that Leave’s accusations of scaremongering are managing to neuter the economic argument somewhat.


228 Responses to “YouGov and Opinium both show EU race neck-and-neck”

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  1. Here is the detail (the phone poll tabs are first and the online stuff starts from page 25):

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf

    Some observations on phone poll:

    Leave more certain to vote than remain (page 9)

    Scotland looks closer than it showed in other polls: 54% remain, 44% leave. The South including London was 50% remain 45% leave. Wales the most eurosceptic region: remain 40% Leave 57%

    Phone poll gives a higher voting intention figure for Labour than the online one: phone says 33%, online says 30%

  2. Some scary figures there. I would never have thought Wales would be the most Eurosceptic region.

  3. “Don’t knows may well be influenced by the reporting of the financial markets’ responses to latest polls. Plummeting FTSE and £ can only reinforce Project Fear.”

    These are pretty abstract things for most people. And I’m not sure a 1% fall in the FTSE is dramatic enough to concern most people to the point it impacts VI.

    One interesting thing about the latest ICM polling (other than the headline VI of course), is that mind are being made up and people seem adamant about it.

  4. Surely predicting turnout from postal votes returned is not sound?
    People presumably get a postal vote because they intend to vote, and they must be returned by polling day, which is still over a week away.

  5. Post ICM poll. I’m calling the EU referendum for Leave 55-45 there will be no swing back because Project Fear doesn’t work on a nation who

    1. Has been brought up on tales of its Empire & it standing alone against the Nazis – the English simply do not for one moment believe they’re ‘too wee, too poor’ etc

    2. Whatever economic catastrophe Remain put forward nothing is worse than the prospect ‘swarms’ of Turkish muslim men.

    I can’t see any card Remain can play to prevent a Leave win.

  6. @Couper2802

    You’d have lost a lot of money if you’d made a call like that on the Quebec ’95 referendum a week and a bit out as it looked similarly sure-fire at that point and Leave had come from a similar place. I think we have a few twists and turns yet. I cant see the bookies paying out tonight.

  7. Three weeks ago bookies were only offering 1/8 odds on a Remain punt. That’s now down to 1/2.
    If you want to place money on Leave winning the odds were 3/1. They have now shortened to 7/4. How long before the bookies are making a vote to exit shorter odds?

  8. ‘Leave’ takes six-point lead in Brexit poll: The Guardian

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/13/

  9. Dave and his fear, has really backfired. This vote will be close, still a long way to go.

  10. If it is leave, I’m afraid the “shocked” establishment should look at our semi-detached attitude to Europe as part of the reason. Never quite committed ourselves did we!?

    A perfect example is passports – if we enjoyed passport free “Schengen” travel to Europe on our driving licences for example, that would be a big loss that people would think twice about giving up.

    As it stands, I doubt many of us will notice Brexit!

  11. More dire warnings tonight from Donald Tusk that civilisation in the West will cease to exist if we vote to Brexit!

    And though you might think that is a joke, and I’m exaggerating, alas I’m not.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36515680

    Donald Tusk: Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation

  12. Good Evening All.
    The brilliant book by Michael Collins (not the Irishman) called: The likes of us’ explains the working class culture that had been ignored by the ‘liberal’ establishment.

    I think the historian Namier wrote about conflict in the 17th Century was between those who were ‘out’ of power against those who were ‘in’.

    I cannot think of any politician who could lead the swing back.

    If I were the PM I would plead with Boris to jump ship, now.

  13. “I can’t see any card Remain can play to prevent a Leave win.”

    —————

    Well, there’s always the potential break up of the UK. A lot of Scots peeps vote Remain, and they’re prolly not unaware of the risk a Leave vote poses to the Union…

  14. Candy

    Thanks for the ICM link.

    Since it’s a GB poll, the standard UKP warning needs to be invoked – Don’t look at the Scottish [or Welsh] crossbreaks! :-)

    For any relative newcomers to UKPR, there are good reasons for this –

    The samples are small (Sco : Phone 155 : Online 142), and not weighted to the internal demographics of those polities. This is shown by the VI figures..

    To be believable, as samples for those ations, the VI figue would have to be roughly comparable with the results of properly weighted Scottish/Welsh polls.

    Almost inevitably, the wee samples in these polls aren’t. For example, Sco : Con P 23% O 20% : Lab P 12% O 15%
    : SNP P 44% O 47% : Grn P 12% O 4% : UKIP P 2% O 9%.

    As a GB poll, either one may be accurate in their “total” figure, but no conclusions about the likely Leave/Remain votes in either nation can be legitimately drawn from this (or any other) GB/UK poll

  15. @OldNat
    As I said in previous thread I am calling it for Leave in rUK

    In Scotland the problem is echoes of the indyref is putting many SNP and Yes supporters of voting Remain. I am a bit worried that an anti-Project Fear vote or non-vote may dampen the Remain %

  16. Thoughtful
    So we have the Third World War, economic Armageddon and the end of civilisation as we know it, if the vote is out.

    If they really think that would be the case, do you not think that Merkel, Tusk and the rest should have taken that risk into account when Cameron came begging and offered himself something meaningful in the negotiations?

    It is another sign of the desperation in the remain camp and the polls this week will be illuminating.

  17. Calm down everyone!

    It was ICM that gave Leave a 6 point lead just one week before the Scottish referendum!

  18. @andrew!!

    Big difference with the scotish indy ICM poll was it was a one off, This ICM poll is starting to become a trend with many others showing a leave leave

  19. BTW I agree with Donald Tusk that Brexit will be a very dangerous thing for the EU and hence for stability, economics and possibly eventually peace in Europe.

    The Brexiteers on here will no doubt scoff but I was worrying about this long before anyone brought it up in this campaign. It could be one of those events that changes history in unpredictable ways

  20. LMZ,

    Not at all, most of the recent polls have been neck and neck

  21. Look at the title of this thread LMZ!

  22. That ICM poll has put the Britain Elects rolling average at 1.4% to Leave, and is almost unchanged from the last ICM poll. Over the course of the whole of 2016 the ICM online polls have been the most favourable to Brexit, typically showing a 3 point gap when other polls have put Remain well ahead.

    The thing that has changed is that the ICM phone polls have shifted to agree with the online ones, where they used to be completely different. That is very suspicious and frankly either the old ICM phone polls or the new ones have to be discounted since no other polls have shown a comparable shift in opinion..

  23. @andrew!!

    erm yes at all, only 2 of the last 100 scotish polls had a yes lead of the last 20 only 5 had it under 3%. the ICM poll then was an outlier

    The eu remain has only been leading in 6 polls and only 1 of those by more than 2%, leaving leading in 10 polls,

    This ICM poll is not an outlier or1 off there has been others.

  24. That was 6 of the last 20

  25. WOW!

  26. you gov 39 remain leave 46

  27. orb certain to vote certain to vote TELEPHONE poll remain 48 leave 49 only 2nd time the ORB phone poll showing leave lead

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