ORB have a new poll out tonight for the Independent showing a ten point lead for leave: REMAIN 45%(-4), LEAVE 55%(+4). Changes are since their last comparable poll, all the way back in April. Unlike the weekly ORB telephone polls for the Telegraph, their more infrequent polls for the Indy are done online – hence the results that are far more pro-Brexit than their poll in the week. Even accounting for that, it shows a shift towards leave that we’ve seen in many recent polls.

The ten point lead is large, but as ever, it is only one poll. Don’t read too much into it unless we see it echoed in other polling. As things stand most other online polls are still tending to show a relatively close race between Remain and Leave.

Also out today was a statement on some methodology changes from Ipsos MORI. As well as following their normal pre-election practice of filtering out people who aren’t registered to vote now the deadline for registration has passed, from their poll next week they are also going to start quotaing and weighting by education, aimed at reducing an over-representation of graduates. MORI suggest that in their last poll the change would have reduced the Remain lead by 3 or 4 points.

While they haven’t yet decided how they’ll do it, in their article they also discuss possible approaches they might take on turnout. MORI have included examples of modelling turnout based on people who say they are certain to vote and voted last time, or say the referendum is important, or who say they usually vote and so on. Exactly which one MORI end up opting for probably doesn’t make that much difference, they all have a very similar impact, reducing the Remain share by a couple of point, increasing the Leave share by a couple of points.

The combined effect of these changes is that the MORI poll in the week is going to be better for Leave due to methodological reasons anyway. If it does show another shift towards Leave, take care to work out how much of that is because of the methodology change and how much of it is due to actual movement before getting too excited/distraught.


283 Responses to “ORB ten point lead for leave, and a methodology change from MORI”

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  1. Well I’m not sure about a ‘significant’ poll in todays Sunday Telegraph, but they did come up with this one:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/10/this-story-is-why-americans-cannot-trust-crooked-hillary-clinton/

    “This story is why Americans cannot trust ‘crooked’ Hillary Clinton”

    So if the Telegraph are calling her that I guess the chances of it being actionable are zero!

  2. For the English football lovers who are probably unhappy at last nights 1-1 draw, take heart from English Rugby which has had a great couple of days at all levels. On Friday the Saxons beat South Africa A 32-24, and yesterday England beat Australia 39-28 and England under 20’s trounced Scotland 44-0.

    On the EU referendum Project Fear has been ratcheted up with a lot of nonsense about pensions from Cameron. The level of debate is truly awful from both sides. Fortunately for me I can ignore all the rubbish as I am quite clear how I will vote.

  3. @TOH

    For the old/elderly, as I am and I think you are TOH, perhaps the best action is to abstain from voting. Better to leave it to the young who will have to live with the result, to decide what they want.

  4. Ernie

    Never abstained in my life. I’m voting “out” to give my children and grandchildren a chance of a better future.

  5. Pete B
    “If the vote is Leave, but the government finds a way of frustrating the will of the people”

    Old Nat
    “But the question is to Leave the EU or Remain within it.
    That is the only issue. If the government follows a Leave decision and exits the EU, then the “will of the people” will have been implemented.
    If some Brexiters were daft enough to think that the question was something entirely different, and couldn’t tell the difference (perhaps because the London based press had fed them a load of crap about what the EU involved) then that is entirely their problem.”

    I think what Pete B might have been getting at was the report on the BBC website, which someone posted a link to the other day, on a previous thread, that said Tory, SNP and Labour MP’s (remainers), we’re looking to ignore the will of the people, if the people are so stupid as to vote for leave and band together to vote in the HOC to stay in the single market, with all the attached strings.

    Whether that is true or not, I don’t know but if it was to be the case, I for one would support some French style insurrection which is an amazing thing for me to say. The absolute arrogance of some of our MP’s is breathtaking.

    TOH

    Yes, I read into Old Nats post that he would be voting out. I’m not sure that’s true though.

    Great results on the rugby side but there must have been a blackout on the rioting fans…..or maybe there wasn’t any? Maybe it’s just football that attracts hooligans.

    On pensions, the only threat has ever been from UK Chancellors. Lawson and Brown virtually destroyed final salary ones, over time, by their actions. Now Osborne wants to totally finish the job. it’s been an easy access cash cow for them.

  6. TOH never abstained in my life either and I’m voting remain for my children and grandchildren-for reasons in previous post
    All positive reasons and certainly not because of blair cameron boris or gove and their shocking campaign
    A very difficult decision though and you and i have both probably given it much thought over a period of time-no last minute knee jerk reactions!

  7. TOH
    Exactly the reasons why my wife and I are voting out. It is possibly to our detriment in the short term but house prices have fallen every year in France since 2009 anyway.

    All our children are voting out also and it is for them and their future that we will vote out. However, like you, I fear that it will not go our way.

    If only TB could be persuaded to be a bit more vocal for remain ;)

  8. ROBERT NEWARK

    Your right about who poses a threat to pensions Robert.

    TULLY

    Yes I formed a clear view of how to vote in the referendum over many years watching and despairing at the way the EU has evolved.

  9. As newspaper sales continue to decline, are there any surveys/polls which indicate how much influence the newspapers have on voting?

  10. The Vote Leave campaign has issued a stark warning that if Transylvania joins the EU, then the UK could find itself ‘overrun’ with vampires.

    “It’s just simple numbers,” said Michael Gove.

    “Transylvania has millions of vampires, and if we remain in the EU then we are putting out the welcome mat and Britain – which has been largely vampire-free since the 1800s – could be overrun with them.

    “And that’s just vampires; we haven’t even started doing the maths on Frankensteins, werewolves, and Mummies.

    “Simply put, the only way to guarantee that you and your family won’t have your blood drained by a hellish creature of the night is to vote for Brexit.

    “And steer clear of Theresa May, obviously.”

    The argument found favour with some members of the public.

    “Yeah, I support leaving the EU,” said leaf measurer Simon Williams.

    “The problem with the ‘In’ campaign is that it’s just a load of mad, hysterical stuff about the economy collapsing, and Europe going to war but they’re not saying anything about what matters to real people, like vampires and that.”

    The Remain campaign have yet to respond but will almost certainly issue the statement – ‘we’re not in the Schengen Zone, so we’ve got the best of both worlds’, as they have done in response to any and all concerns about immigration since the campaign began.

  11. @Oldnat – “There is no reason why a UK Government (wearing its English Government hat) couldn’t introduce laws requiring that the “greedy people” bringing in “cheap labour” provide them with housing to a specified level at their own expense.

    Indeed that right could be extended to all employees who wished to take advantage of the facility.”

    In an EU context, you certainly wouldn’t be allowed to do the former. That would be illegal, as making those who import EU citizens pay for their houses would be a restraint of trade. So you would have to make everyone do this, as per your second sentence. Either way, I agree that there other ways to deal with the problem of housing costs.

    On Pensions:

    There was genuine merit in questioning future pension liabilities in the Indyref. The SNP assumptions on the long term demographic structures were very partial, making significant omissions when they published data on the ratio between working age people and dependents. This didn’t compare too badly with rUK, but if the correct working age/pension age figure was used, Scotland would clearly have had problems. This was pointed out by many but roundly ignored by Yes campaigners, but there was no doubt that on the available statistics, iScotland’s pension burden would have grown significantly faster than rUK’s.

    In that way, I didn’t see it as a scare story – more a fairly simple statement of fact, although of course stating that iScotland’s pension would definitely fall by £XX was silly – although only as equally silly as the SNP’s claims that iScotland’s pensions would rise by XXX (sorry – couldn’t use the £ sign there, but let’s not go into that one).

    For this referendum, there isn’t the same direct causal link in terms of demographics, but Cameron is instead suggesting that general economic underperformance will lead to a loss of state revenues.

    Personally, I think this is a fair point to make, and one that can be argued over. Different people believe different things on this. All he is doing is linking this general issue to specific spending pledges, which, although not ‘facts’ isn’t an unreasonable strategy if you genuinely think government revenues will fall post Brexit.

    One thing I suspect we can all agree on though – it is a bit rich hearing this government warn of pension reductions, when they have just put in place a flat rate pension scheme that will see young and low paid workers lose up to 30% of the state pension entitlement over time.

  12. The younger generation are already of the view – with some justification – that the ‘baby boomers’ (which just about includes me) climbed up the ladder and then pulled it up after themselves.

    If us over 55s are the drivers of a vote to leave and it does cause the economy to contract then i think it will be difficult to argue for the principle of protecting service for the elderly (pensions, health service, etc) ahead of those for everyone else.

    If that is the point Cameron is making then it is a more than fair one…

  13. Very worrying for remain. I think the biggest reason sthat this shift is happening can all be linked to one thing; Cameron becoming much more visible in the campaign. This is because:

    A) it reminds people of Cameron’s deal, which has been recieved at best as a damp squib, and at worst as a con.
    B) there is an obvious contradiction in his personal argument. Why would a man who considers Brexit to be such an unmitigated disaster risk the referendum in the first place?

  14. @ BIGFATRON

    The sustainability of many, many publicly funded benefits such a “Triple Lock” Pensions, ever growing NHS budgets and Civil Service (uninvested) pensions is ropey whether we stay in or out.

    It’s true the baby boomers, even my generation (now in my early 40s) enjoyed massive benefits that my children will never enjoy. That’s not a reason to vote for uncontrolled immigration and instant access to free NHS care and social benefits for those immigrants.

  15. @ MrJones

    ” Kentdalian

    There are multiple studies

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12063052/Mass-migration-driving-down-wages-offered-to-British-jobseekers.html

    Thanks for the link .. Like the Graun report on the LSE study I originally pointed to it puts its own rather biased spin on it… all the links are to other telegraph stories.

    However Mr Google comes to the rescue as always – I assume this is the BoE in question

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf

    from the abstract :

    There seems to be a broad consensus among academics that the share of immigrants in the workforce has little or no effect on native wages” .. ” Our contribution is to extend the existing literature on immigration to include occupations as well. We find that the immigrant to native ratio has a small negative impact on average British wages. ” ….. ” and find that there is no additional impact on aggregate UK wages as a result of migrants arriving specifically from EU countries. “

  16. sorry this bit lost in the cut and paste :

    our results reveal the biggest impact of immigration on wages is within the semi/unskilled occupational group

  17. Latest polling:

    UK is currently a member of the EU: 95%
    UK is not currently a member of EU: 1%
    Unsure: 3%

  18. I heve two questions:

    * Why, when we have a minimum wage, does this help attract immigrants? Surely everyone competes on a level playing field, with our indigenous population having the advantage of, like, speaking the better English.

    * How does a much lower standard of living IN THEIR OWN COUNTRIES make an immigrant think ‘wow, I’ll have to get over to the UK, they pay loads.’ Isn’t the standard of living only relevant in the country in which you are living NOW? Or can these disgraceful people pay Romanian rents to their Boston landlords?

  19. @Jonesinbangor

    You implicitly assume that EU migrants are here simply for the NHS and social benefits – all the studies I have found suggest they are net contributors of the exchequer and are – in the great majority – here to work (in which case they pay taxes) or to study (for which they pay)

    ‘Uncontrolled immigration’ is a loaded phrase used by Leave, like ‘economic catastrophe’ from Remain – it implies that the current situation is a disaster when all objective analysis hows it has both good and bad points that need to be considered together.

    The firm I am CFO for is one of the 20 fastest growing firms in the UK – we currently have around 250 staff and hope to grow to about 500 in three to four years. Around a quarter of our staff are immigrants, around 95% of our staff are graduates.

    We reckon exit will knock between 100 and 200 off the staffing we can achieve by 2020 – that’s around £2m less tax per annum going to the exchequer just from our one company. Plus 75-150 more UK graduates on the dole.

    Both our markets and our resource pools will be smaller, and we will therefore do less business.

    That ‘uncontrolled immigration’ you refer to allows us to get contracts we would otherwise not get – for instance we just won a project because we could offer two Spanish speakers into a team that needed financial engineering expertise.

    If we are ‘out’ that project will go to a foreign consultancy, as Spanish speakers with financial markets Masters degree backgrounds are pretty much non-existent within the indigenous UK population. And that means the other three UK grads who would be on that project don’t get the work either….

    Oh, and the two immigrant staff we’ve had who have become seriously ill over the last four years have both gone back to their home countries (Greece and Romania respectively) for treatment – neither preferred using the NHS rather than being close to their parents!

    There are implications to shutting down EU immigration that are far too subtle for tabloid headlines to encapsulate.

  20. Crossbreaks on the above polling result:

    Remain voters:
    UK is currently a member of the EU: 99%
    UK is not currently a member of EU: –
    Unsure: 1%

    Leave voters:
    UK is currently a member of the EU: 97%
    UK is not currently a member of EU: 2%
    Unsure: 1%

    I shall not pass comment on this little nugget:
    1 in every 50 people who are planning to vote for the UK to leave the EU think the UK is not in the EU.

  21. @al urqa

    Good questions. It was said that some unscrupulous employers in the agricultural.sector could include sub standard accommodation as payment in kind as part of the minimum wage . Foreign workers would.accept.that, UK workers would not.

  22. @candy

    Ho hum, your link does not prove what you want it to do. And of course we do have access to Chinese, Japanese and American markets now but not a part of a comprehensive free trade agreement. Now go and play with your friends under the bridge, there’s no more food for you here.

  23. Interesting Big Data analysis of the ref:

    https://www.equimedia.co.uk/blog/eu-referendum-will-turnout-be-decisive/

    They believe it is 45% remain, 42% leave and 12% undecided at the moment and are projecting a final result of 56% stay and 44% leave. They are projecting turnout of 65%. And things have moved slightly towards leave since they started monitoring on May 11th.

    They say that the thing most people are talking about is jobs and employment, and then business and trade – immigration is 4th. (though #1 might be “immigrants are taking my job”)

    Based on this, remain wins, unless leave pulls out all the stops in the next 10 days.

  24. @Hireton – “of course we do have access to Chinese, Japanese and American markets now but not a part of a comprehensive free trade agreement.”

    If you are arguing that we can trade just fine without formal agreements, it follows we can trade just fine with Europe without the formal agreement of being in the EU.

    Tying yourself in knots, arn’t you?

  25. @ BIGFATRON

    I don’t disagree with much of what you’re stating.

    Control over immigration won’t mean no immigration – but it may mean that employers such as your company will look twice and indigenous potential employees and perhaps consider “polishing up” a few rough diamonds?

    Subtle changes. I’m afraid of the consequences of Remain for my children.

  26. @bigfatron

    “all the studies I have found suggest they are net contributors”

    We had this the other day and I’m afraid it just isn’t true. Contributors they might be but certainly not net contributors.

    The level at which a tax payer starts to break even with the state is around £35K and I cannot see a situation where EU migrants are earning that kind of money as an average.

    The government is fully aware of this figure which it has used to set the minimum income level for anyone seeking to bring a partner into the UK.

    This doesn’t include the invisible export part where money is sent out of the UK to the home country.

  27. @ Thoughtful

    ” This doesn’t include the invisible export part where money is sent out of the UK to the home country. ”

    They are paid in £’s not €’s.

    They will either exchange them for Euros, in which case the Pounds remain in the UK economy, or they will use them to import goods and services from UK into their home country, in which case the Pounds will also be be recycled back into the UK economy.

    I

  28. AL URQA

    I think I can answer your 2 questions.
    1. Many EE immigrants are far more qualified and educated than is necessary for the jobs they do. They may have a higher level of education or be qualified as an electrician, plumber, motor mechanic, etc. but are happy to do a lower level of work because they are paid far more than they would be to do the job they are qualified for in EE. And their UK jobs are easier to do. Their English is invariably very good and having highly qualified, good English speakers who just want to keep their heads down and get on with it is very attractive to employers.
    .
    2. Of course they pay the going rate for rent. However, they share the cheapest accommodation they can find (around here it is often caravans), work overtime whenever it is available and go out hardly at all, saving as much money as they can. As little as possible goes back into the UK economy. If you are focused on saving, you can live much more cheaply and very often, their plan is to make as much as they can for a few years, send money back home to family or to put it into savings. Of course, having established themselves, some decide to settle here, and eventually their money may get back into our economy.

    I can’t criticise them. They are doing what I would tell my children to do if they had the chance. Work hard, make as much as you can for a few years and then you will have choices. You will still have your qualifications and will be able to afford to update them.
    But displaced, less well-educated UK born workers don’t have a choice and are being condemned to a whole life on low pay or benefits.

  29. BIGFATRON:

    Thanks for that post. It’s a very similar situation for my company, with rapid growth in a sector where immigration is helping us to win contracts and that having a knock-on effect for locals being hired – locals like me, I might add.

    I don’t know if your company is in the same situation but my job is at risk if there’s a Brexit. It’s not just a matter of future growth being curtailed, there will need to be a change of strategy.

    People who oppose immigration are often (not always) totally ignorant of the feedback effects in the economy. It’s a bewitchingly simple narrative to say “fewer immigrants means more jobs for those who are already here”. It’s fiendishly difficult to explain in simple terms why that is at least an oversimplification and at worst a dangerous lie.

  30. Some more Big Data, this time from the University of Essex:

    http://www.sense-eu.info/

    At the moment the prediction is Stay 51% Leave 49%

  31. @Kentdalian –

    “They will either exchange them for Euros, in which case the Pounds remain in the UK economy, or they will use them to import goods and services from UK into their home country, in which case the Pounds will also be be recycled back into the UK economy.”

    No – I’m afraid you’ve got this wrong. Whether or not the earnings are converted is immaterial – an equivalent value is exported out of the country.

  32. “But displaced, less well-educated UK born workers don’t have a choice and are being condemned to a whole life on low pay or benefits.”
    @ludlownewboy June 12th, 2016 at 11:11 am

    So, despite all the good news you put in your reply (and I agree with much of it — no one owes me a living, which it must be said took me quite a while to work out) we are left with the obvious answer that our indigenous population is second rate. Surely then we should invest more in our own economy to provide a workforce that is able to compete? Or do we simply pull up the draw bridge and make do with second best?

    That sounds like an insane policy to pursue!

    To sum up. We can’t compete with other Europeans because we won’t spend enough on our public services to invest for the future (the old public bad, private good nonsense). So our only answer is to stop these better qualified people with a stronger work ethic from coming in because Susie down the road is struggling to spel nesessary.

    Gawd help us.

  33. Al Urqa

    “How does a much lower standard of living IN THEIR OWN COUNTRIES make an immigrant think”

    They send money home – obviously.

    “Why, when we have a minimum wage, does this help attract immigrants?”

    As a result of the above we only have a partial minimum wage. We have immigrants who will work illegally for less and live 12 to a room because the money they can send home is still more than they could earn at home.

    #

    Kentdalian

    “our results reveal the biggest impact of immigration on wages is within the semi/unskilled occupational group”

    Yes.

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