Today we got three more EU referendum polls.

A new YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain, conducted in the middle of last week, echoed the trend we’ve seen towards Leave. Their topline figures are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 45%, Don’t know/Won’t vote 15%. Full tabs are here.

ICM’s weekly online poll has topline figures of REMAIN 43%(-1), LEAVE 48%(+1), Don’t knows 9%(nc). It’s no significant change from last week, but it consolidates last week’s leave lead. There’s no parallel ICM telephone poll this week. Full tabs for the online poll are here.

Finally there was a “new” TNS online online poll. The topline figures were REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided 16%. This one is a little harder to interpret than the other two – TNS have made some changes to their methodology, including changing their past vote weighting and introducing turnout weighting and it’s not clear what impact the methodology change had, so we can’t be sure whether the polls suggests any movement in either direction – either way, the fieldwork was completed back in mid-May (full tabs are here).

All three polls show leave ahead, but all three polls were conducted online and most online polls show a close race anyway. What will be interesting is if either online polls do consistently start showing a clear lead for Leave rather than just movement around neck-and-neck, or if other telephone polls echo that ICM phone poll showing Leave ahead.

727 Responses to “Monday morning’s EU polls”

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  1. The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points).

    These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead.

    Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum.

  2. I have decided to vote remain, after being on the fence up to now. I don’t want to vote for a big change unless I am really very sure its worth while, when viewed from all angles in a dispassionate way. We can always leave later if the case against staying becomes clearer.

    (Sorry, editor, I realize this post is against UKPR rules, so feel free to delete).

  3. @ Bantams

    “Remain need 65% in London to offset the rest of England”

    You’ve said this before, which seems to imply that the rest of England is bound to vote or Leave (and by a known figure).

    And even if London’s vote did offset exactly the rest of England, you’d then need to look a how the other parts of the UK voted. Polling from Scotland and Northern Ireland suggests that a ‘draw’ in England would result in something like 52:48 for the UK.

  4. CHRISLANE 1945

    @”I expect Corbyn to come out, now, with all his fervour and eloquence to persuade Labour working class voters to ignore the Brexit doom mongerers”

    Do you think he knows where to find them? Perhaps the Middle Class Liberal Intellectuals in Islington & Hampstead can help him?

    ………..or Eddie Izzard…….he gets around a bit……………might know where they are ?

  5. @ northward

    No second chances here, except if Leave win with a narrow margin. Talk today that efforts may be made to force another vote within 2 years. If true I’m voting out.

  6. I have a question about the orb poll. There doesn’t seem to have been a single respondent who said they didn’t know how they would vote if the referendum was tomorrow. This seems a bit odd – even other pollsters who try and force undecideds to jump one way or the other still have a proportion of people who say ‘don’t know’. Is orb actually saying not a single person out of 2052 said don’t know or that they wouldn’t vote.

    It may be that that is the case but its highly unlikely I would have thought

  7. Evil predictive text doing its worst again! Should have been profhoward not northward.

  8. On one interview I heard today so called working class voters feel the Labour party is totally out of touch with them and their troubles, It’s difficult not to agree.
    The probable beneficiary will of course be UKIP

  9. @ James E

    Yes, should have mentioned that Scotland and NI are factored in with London against Wales and the rest of England.

  10. Thanks Bantams but i think to minimize “regret” its best to remain; if you leave you can’t reverse that (while retaining all the special privileges that have been negotiated) but if you remain you can always leave later.

  11. @ Stan

    “These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote”

    I expect the don’t knows have been analysed and distributed accordingly

  12. The two prominent Labour MP’s, John Mann and Dennis Skinner will almost certainly bring over a lot of Labour voters to the Leave side. My guess is that those voters will be relieved at the ‘cover’ they are being given.

  13. Dave: “To my mind, one of the most telling issues is the way in which EU finances, trade, laws, proposals, whatever are and were consistently reported and discussed here separated from or contrasted with the UK contributions to them, even before a referendum and exit became possibilities. In truth, we are not party to this project.
    June 10th, 2016 at 8:31 pm”

    Again, I have a bit of trouble pinning down what you’re saying. I think it’s something like, “The EU is an idealistic project which we’ve never really got. Its basis is the belief that to avoid the possibility of another European war, you need to integrate its countries to the extent where they lose the ability to attack each other. We’ve always made the mistake of treating it as a limited economic project. We don’t even report it as a project in which we’re involved and in which we’re a key player: we talk about in terms of what they’re doing to us. And so the current debate – whether we’re better off in or out – is missing the point.”

    Have I got that right? If so, I think I can agree with you. For some of us, Europe is indeed an aspiration and a shining beacon in a difficult world. But, sadly, those aren’t the terms on which this debate is being conducted. It’s all about self-interest. And so one must continue pointing out that, on those narrow terms, Brexit would be the most monumental act of self-harming.

  14. Come on profhoward, it’s been 4 decades since the last referendum many of us won’t live long enough to see another.

    Vote leave and see if the elite who rule us will actually permit us to leave ! Chances are they won’t, and the EU will realise their intransigence has gone too far.

    A more favourable set of membership terms addressing grievances will be drawn up and a second referendum demanded.

    Based on past performance of course !

  15. Thoughtful – I suppose it would have to wait 15 years.

  16. Good evening all from Itchen Valley Hampshire..

    I never gave much thought over it until today when I was listening to the news on my way back this evening and that is Labour may be in quite a bit of bother over the EU vote.

    Cast your mind back to the Scottish indy vote where at least 25% of Labour voters voted Yes despite the party leading the No campaign and the infamous VoW fae Gordy.

    Fast forward to the 2015 election and the result in Scotland and Labour MP after Labour MP who lost their seats to the SNP all said the same thing and that was “No one was listening to us” and Labour voters felt the party had abandoned them.

    There appears to be a North South divide in the Labour party in England and if Remain win then I reckon many Labour MP’s in the north will be looking over their shoulders at UKIP. and they will hear the same message on the doorsteps from voters in Scotland and that will be they felt abandoned.

    Suddenly the entire EU project and the future of the Labour party appears to be the responsibility of Ol Corby and much that I like him he ain’t a natural performer. He’s got his work cut out that’s for sure and probably explains the candid approach from Cameron during Prime ministers questions.

    Anyway 1-0 to France so far.

  17. CatManJeff – “if Leave does win, 90% of the PLP will have found themselves on the wrong side of the argument.”

    Yeah. It would be like the Conservatives after WW2 – they got taken over by the small minority that had opposed the Munich agreement – Churchill, Macmillan, Heath. The rest of them silently stood down and didn’t contest the 1945 election and a whole bunch of clean hands took their place.

    Gisela Stuart would stand a good chance in those circumstances. I like her way and would vote for her if the Tories were silly enough to elect Boris.

  18. I got a letter from Corbyn today inviting me to vote Remain..

    Anyone else? Is everyone getting one? Labour can have no information about me whatsoever at this address where I have lived just one year (except that I am new on the register, and perhaps that I have a postal vote…)

  19. @Andrew111

    I know you are on Kirklees? Which constituency/ward, if you don’t mind me asking?

    I’m in Batley West, and there has been zero Remain campaigning that I can see. Vote Leave have been quite active in Batley and Spen.

  20. @Candy

    I think that Corbyn’s instincts are probably closer to the Leave voters (if perhaps for different reasons).

    Once again, it’s the PLP who look most away from public opinion.

  21. @CatManJeff

    Well if it’s Corbyn vs Boris, then Boris wins as the lesser of two evils.

  22. Hello Catmanjeff

    I am in Mirfield..I think I have had one other leaflet from each side (official campaigns) so far. Leave had a stall in Mirfield centre 3 weeks ago but nothing since when I have been around…

    I have seen one Leave poster on a lamp post in Almondbury but otherwise nothing..

    UKIP get good votes in several of the Batley and Spen wards so I expect Leave will do quite well round here. I wonder what the Asian vote will do though?

  23. RELICK:
    “About shy Brexiters, I think the only place there might be any is Scotland.”

    I’m just back from the broadcast of Radio 4’s “Any Questions”. There were remainers in the crowd and they were not shy. Nor did they feel like a majority, but I took no survey, obviously.

    On the way back home, I saw my very first window poster (apart from the one in my window). It was a Labour Remain poster.

  24. “There were remainers in the crowd”

    Of course, what I meant to say was that there were leavers in the crowd. Inexplicable brain fade.

  25. Lots of jumping to conclusions on here. The Referendum is nearly two weeks away and nothing is settled.

  26. @Andrew111

    Vote Leave in Batley and Spen is being organised by a UKIP team. There are some Tories too.

    This is probably a massive turn off for BME voters.

    I’ve been campaigning for Green Leaves, and given the vibes I’m picking up, if I was forced, my money would be on a Leave win here.

  27. ‘Relick the independent article does point out that when they first started doing their polls 12 months ago Remain had a 10 point lead, so surely a 20 point swing could be described as massive?’

    No – in psephological terms a 20% change in the lead would be a 10% swing.

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