There are three new EU referendum polls today, a telephone poll from ORB and parallel phone and online polls from ICM.

The ORB poll for the Telegraph has topline figures of REMAIN 51%(-4), LEAVE 46%(+4), Don’t know 3%(nc) – full tables are here. The Telegraph wrote it up as immigration producing a significant swing towards Leave. I would normally have been ready to dismiss that as reading far too much into a poll that was probably just reversion to the mean: if you look at ORB’s previous figures their poll last week may have shown a thirteen point lead… but the two before that were almost identical to today’s figures. Newspapers may want to write that up as “big swing to Remain” followed by “big swing to Leave”, but a more parsimonious interpretation is just “slightly wonky sample returns to normal”.

However, today’s other polls from ICM raise more interesting questions.

ICM once again carried out two parallel polls, one conducted online, one conducted by telephone. So far all but one of these experiments have found a big gulf between phone and online polls (typically online polls show a race that’s neck-and-neck, telephone polls show a lead averaging around 8-10 points). ICM’s online poll found the sort of close race we’ve come to expect, with topline figures of REMAIN 44%(-1), LEAVE 47%(+2), Don’t know 9%(-1). ICM’s telephone poll found wholly unexpected results of REMAIN 42%(-5), LEAVE 45%(+6), Don’t know 13%(-1). Full tables for both are here.

There is nothing unusual about how the ICM poll was carried out that might explain the unusual result, it was done the same way as their previous telephone polls that showed Remain leads of seven or eight points. This leaves us with two obvious possibilities:

Either there has been a genuine movement towards Leave in recent days and the movement in the ICM poll reflects that (suggesting also that the ORB poll is showing more than just reversion to the mean), or…

ICM just got a really wacky sample by polling over the bank holiday weekend, and future telephone polls will revert to the normal pattern of solid remain leads.

Right now we can’t really tell. I will only urge my normal caveats about not reading too much into an individual poll, especially one conducted over a bank holiday weekend (whether or not that makes an actual difference or is “pollster folklore” is unclear. It’s certainly possible to point to clear examples of weird results from polls with bank holiday fieldwork, but it’s possible to point to weird results from polls conducted at other times and bank holiday results that are perfectly normal. While I’d always try to avoid polling over Easter or Christmas, I suspect in reality the Spring bank holiday doesn’t make that much difference to fieldwork). It will be interesting to see if forthcoming polls show a wider trend towards Leave, and if forthcoming telephone polls give any further suggestion that the online-phone gap may be disappearing.


156 Responses to “ICM phone poll shows Leave ahead”

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  1. I.e., some folks are obsessing over democratic REPRESENTATION, which is certainly an issue, but there is also the democratic power to effect change.

    Not much use having a very democratic representation that in practice has few teeth because in such a minority.

  2. @Prof Howard

    That’s ok, No probs…

  3. Neil A

    You do love hyperbole!

    Westminster was rather trapped by “the Vow” when they panicked at the end of the indyref campaign, but instead of imaginatively agreeing to something close to what Scots have clearly stated, over many years, wanted out of a reformed UK Union, they did the usual – granted the fewest powers that they thought they could get away with.

    Given the response to the amendments to the Scotland Bill, “barely even acknowledging that some nationalists were elected to parliament” (your phrase – not mine) might be not a bad description. :-)

  4. @Assisuosity
    Evidence from London doesn’t count on this site, as it is another country.
    In fact as a rule of thumb, only evidence from Scotland is truly valid.

  5. Old Nat thanks for the explanation. I guess from that answer you weren’t surprised with their seat performance (whether success or not).

  6. Prof Howard

    Indeed. My surprise was as subdued as Guymonde’s “only evidence from Scotland is truly valid” was fatuous.

  7. @Guymonde

    Quite so.

    I was merely positing that the alien species of middle class metropolitans, particularly those with wee ones might have been trickier than usual to get hold of this weekend. Especially on the telephone.

    They do rather like to vote though, and for Remain, judging by the posters they’re sporting.

    Anyhow, enough anecdote – it seems ICM obviously had some concerns in this department as they waited by propensity to take foreign holidays. Not sure if this is something they normally do, but I wonder where their figure of 61% of population having taken a trip abroad in the last 3 years comes from…

    Also this is substantially below the 80%+ ABTA record has having taken a holiday either in the UK or overseas in the last 12 months, which would seem to be the relevant stat.

  8. I think i am correct in saying that this ICM online poll uses their new methodology whilst the previous ICM side by side poll used their old method for online polling.
    Their write up I believe when discussing the issue with their old method indicated that the change would have impacted the leave lead by 4 points. If all this is correct then an inline with previous ICM side by side online poll also actually indicates a move towards leave?

    As for bank holidays I agree that many are away and it’s not just any bank holiday it’s Whitson week bank holiday, but mobile phones are being used in polling whilst surely weightings for social class and previous vote should counter this?

  9. CARFREW

    @”Like many, I was going to abstain, but then I saw the ludicrous Remain campaign, and the absurdity of the Brexit message, and decided not to vote.”

    It took me from a possible Leave , back to Not Voting .

  10. @CATMANJEFF – I already backed Leave on the Betfair exchange when they went out to 5.5 recently. The have now come in to 3.6, so I could already trade out for a profit.

    But I expect the pollsters to catch up with reality over the next couple of weeks, so will probably hold the position for now, and cash out once the price drops to 2.0 or just under.

  11. “Like migratory birds responding to some invisible call from the south.”

    Odd birds, these London flappers. Most species head north in the spring. That’s London for you though. Maybe all that pollution has disrupted their biological systems?

    Glad to see @Oldnat remains determined to see the blue mist at every comment.

    There is no comparison in my mind to the risks of the EU changing over time if we stay in and the risks of the UK changing if Scotland voted no. The EU is committed, by treaty, to complete unification, an agenda actively pursued by the executive.

    In the UK, as @Oldnat well knows, the risks of any government reversing the powers already used by Scotland and the other devolved administrations are so vanishingly small to be non existent – the movement is and will be only in one direction, which is the movement of greater powers to Holyrood.

    To suggest otherwise, in a lame attempt to draw false parallels between the Indyref and the EU referendum, is, to coin a phrase, utterly fatuous.

  12. can anyone tell me which of the following companies uses phone polling or both phone and telephone? I should be able to find out but Ithought that most posters will just know. If they can I can ‘reward’ them by working out the rank correlation between date of poll and leave vote since about 15th of December and do so within method (and as far as ICM goes within company)

    Opinium ORB TNS Survation BMG Comres IPSOS/MORI, Panelbase

    I know iCM does both, and think YouGov only does EU online although they may have experimented with phone once?

    From the look of the results I would guess that BMG and Panelbase are online and IPSOS and Survation and ORB do phone but I would be very grateful for an authoritative answer

  13. Come on you can do it..;-)

    Well said Allan, Yes come on Crossbat11.

  14. Good Morning All from a cloudy Bournemouth East.
    I think I can ‘smell’ Brexit picking up the pace, with Jeremy Corbyn away on well earned holidays for a week or two, and the Labour Party behind in recent polling.
    There are, IMO, genuine fears among so-called- C2-D-E voters about wages, housing, schools and culture about which ‘Brexit’ people are talking while ‘Remain’ campaigners are seeming to deny.

    Exciting stuff as a neutral observer.

  15. Good Morning All from a cloudy Bournemouth East.
    I think I can ‘smell’ Brexit picking up the pace, with Jeremy Corbyn away on well earned holidays for a week or two, and the Labour Party behind in recent polling.
    There are, IMO, genuine fears among so-called- C2-D-E voters about wages, housing, schools and culture about which ‘Brexit’ people are talking while ‘Remain’ campaigners are seeming to deny.

    Exciting stuff as a neutral observer.

  16. Odds on Leave have shortened to 3/1 although Remain still has largest number of bets ( between 50 and 60 %).

  17. @Chrislane1945 is so excited he’s saying it twice!

  18. So, 2 polls from 1 company saying “leave”. 1 poll from another company saying “remain”. Bank holiday polling may increase the likelihood of errors. What I read into this is that there may well be a migrant-based swing towards “leave” but we will have to wait to be sure. I tend not to believe the loudest shouts from both sides but do listen to independent sources such as Obama and international banking and independent think tank sources. Polls show that grumpy old men are more likely to vote, and I will be!

  19. Good morning all from a cloudy central London.

    Alec…
    “There is no comparison in my mind to the risks of the EU changing over time if we stay in and the risks of the UK changing if Scotland voted no. The EU is committed, by treaty, to complete unification, an agenda actively pursued by the executive”

    “In the UK, as @Oldnat well knows, the risks of any government reversing the powers already used by Scotland and the other devolved administrations are so vanishingly small to be non existent – the movement is and will be only in one direction, which is the movement of greater powers to Holyrood”
    _________

    Not only is the EU committed to unification but also expansionism, it’s a never ending project with no end game and a leap into the murky unknown.

    As far as devolved powers go within the UK and in particularly Scotland, any government trying to wrestle powers back from Edinburgh to London will surely hasten the break up of the UK and I think it was Donald Dewar who described devolution as a “process” but if I’m being honest it’s one stuttering process with no real life changing radical powers as of yet being devolved.

    Back onto the EU referendum…The problem I see with some within the SNP is that the EU vote is somehow a little Englander problem and it’s nothing to do with Scotland. The arguments and people they are agreeing with are the very same ones that spoke out against Scottish independence…I really find this quite astonishing!!

    It’s as if some peeps are saying…”well we never got our independence so why should the UK get theirs?”

  20. BAZINWALES

    “tend not to believe the loudest shouts from both sides but do listen to independent sources such as Obama and international banking and independent think tank sources. Polls show that grumpy old men are more likely to vote, and I will be!”
    _________

    How can they be independent voices when clearly they are taking one side? If they were truly independent voices then presumably they would be warning against the dangers and benefits of remaining in the EU and the dangers and benefits of leaving the EU?

    Twice Obama has stuck his nose into UK politics and for who’s benefit..ours or his own?

  21. This grumpy old man will be voting as well but it may be the last time I bother. I am in danger of turning into “Disgusted of ……” because the campaigns on both sides are so dire. I don’t think a party led by any of the so called leading lights in this campaign would be worthy of my vote, especially if it is raining.

  22. @carfrew & Colin
    “I saw the ludicrous Remain campaign, and the absurdity of the Brexit message, and decided not to vote.”
    Do you not vote in general elections because you don’t believe either or any (vote-seeking) manifesto will be implemented in full?
    Whether the IN or OUT campaigns are sensible or not, the referendum will decide a real issue.
    If you want some hard information, try reading the Directives in the Official Journal of the EU. I had to daily for years and they put me off for life.
    Think for yourselves, decide what you want, and vote for it.
    If you really dislike being either in or out, under the regimes promised or likely, then spoil your ballot paper. There is no unelectable minor party to vote for.

  23. @alec

    Could you cite the Treaty provisions which commit the EU to “complete unification” and the provisions which define “complete unification”? Presumably “complete unification” excludes the opt outs which various members already have and the treaty provisions prevent any further opt outs?

  24. ALEC.
    It is brilliant post-season politics as we wait for Euro 2016.

    Laptop is playing up.

    Twitter speculates that Boris could win a GE landslide and then Corbyn might go.

  25. DAVE

    The Referendum options aren’t “Manifestos”-no one can say what political party will be in power next time.

    We are being asked to decide between two sets of guesses, estimates, and sheer sodding untruths -all presented as absolute fact.

    Worse still, The Conservative Party has filled the vacuum in this debate- left by a Labour Party whose leader seems too embarrassed about his real beliefs to speak on the option he allegedly favours-in order to wage open warfare with itself in full view of the UK voting public.

  26. NCP EU Referendum [email protected] 17s17 seconds ago
    YouGov (#EUref) shows no change:

    REMAIN 41 (=)
    LEAVE 41 (=)

    30th-31st May
    N=1,735

  27. @ Charles – re Online & Phone pollsters

    I find this page from Wikipedia useful on the overall mix of EU polling. Several companies use both modes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

  28. Chris
    Twitter speculates on a lot of things – most of it absolute tosh.

  29. @Hireton – “Could you cite the Treaty provisions which commit the EU to “complete unification” and the provisions which define “complete unification”? Presumably “complete unification” excludes the opt outs which various members already have and the treaty provisions prevent any further opt outs?”

    Yes. Pretty much the first line in the preamble of the Treaty of Rome is – “DETERMINED to lay the foundations of an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”.

    This has been adopted into more recent EU treaties, including Lisbon, of 6 separate occasions, and so lies at the heart of the European project.

    There is some debate about what this means in practice, with some observers saying that it’s reference to ‘the peoples of Europe’ rather than nations, and the lack of a capitalised ‘U’ in the word ‘union’ suggests that this doesn’t actually mean political union. However, there are abundant statements and quotes from European founders and commission members past and present to indicate that the concept of an EU supranational state was very much on the minds of the founders

  30. I would normally have been ready to dismiss that as reading far too much into a poll that was probably just reversion to the mean: if you look at ORB’s previous figures their poll last week may have shown a thirteen point lead… but the two before that were almost identical to today’s figures. Newspapers may want to write that up as “big swing to Remain” followed by “big swing to Leave”, but a more parsimonious interpretation is just “slightly wonky sample returns to normal”.

    It’s worth pointing out that ORB’s headline figures are based on voters who are 10/10 certain to vote. Given that they only start out with a total sample of 800 this means that these figures are only based on a sample of around 460 each week. So the odd bit of wonkiness is to be expected.

    This raises another question which is of which headline referendum percentages are used and how likelihood to vote has been handled. There are actually at least five different basic possibilities:

    (1) The whole sample, including non-voters[1], as for example YouGov normally do. For the ICM phone poll these figures would be:

    Remain 38%, Leave 40%, WNV 7%, DK 14%

    (2) Excluding only those who say they will not vote[2]. For the ICM phone poll this is:

    Remain 41%, Leave 44%, DK 15%

    (3) Using only those respondants who say they are certain to vote. Usually this is those who say they are 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 likely to vote, but some pollsters (eg TNS) use a range of descriptions. As stated above ORB’s published figures are those who said 10/10. For the ICM phone poll 10/10 would produce:

    Remain 41%, Leave 49%, DK 10%

    (4) Using a wider filter to include those more likely to vote. For example Panelbase use all those who are 8-10/10 LTV. For the ICM phone poll this would give:

    Remain 42%, Leave 47%, DK 11%

    (5) Using some sort of weighting. This is what ICM do for their headline figures:

    If someone is 10/10 certain to vote, they are given a weight of 1.0. If someone is 9/10 certain to vote they are given a weight of 0.9 etc. People who tell us they are likely to vote in the next General Election but did not vote in the last, are further down-weighted. If someone says they are 10/10 certain to vote but did not vote in 2010, they are given a weight of 0.5. If they say 9/10 certainty, the weight becomes 0.45 etc.

    which (assuming they do the same for the referendum) gives:

    Remain 42%, Leave 45%, DK 13%

    Of course you can also combine elements of (4) and (5) – ignore 0-4 and weight 5-10 for example (as ComRes do, I think).

    What this shows is even the same polling data can produce a range of different headline figures, perhaps even a different result depending on what LTV system is used. It illustrates just how careful we need to be in detecting ‘movement’ in the polls.

    [1] This is not as mad as it looks because those who say they won’t vote may still change their mind (do we really think Colin or Carfew will resist the allure of the polling station?) and so should be included in those yet to decide.

    [2] ICM confusingly call this ‘All certain to vote’.

  31. Oops – sent in error…

    To continue:

    ….with this thinking typified by the view of Jean Monnet, who famously said that Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises”.

    There is also some debate about how ‘ever closer union’ affects ECJ juriprudence, with one study suggesting that only 57 cases between 1954 and 2015 citing ‘ever closer union’ as a factor in the judgements. However, others suggest that taking a broader interpretation, to include where the ECJ has taken account of the ‘spirit of’ and ‘spirit and general scheme’ of the EU Treaties, which can be taken to include ‘ever closer union’, this tally rises to 554 cases between 1997 and 2012.

    Indeed, the current president of the ECJ has said – “there is a strong link between the Court and European integration. The Court…has contributed in its case law many principles which are implied in the process of European integration set out in the Treaties”.

    Legally, there is very little distinction between ‘ever closer union, and ‘complete unification’, and it is clear that this is the basis on which the EU treaties are based, with some specific exemptions. It is also clear that this was the intention of the founding fathers of the EU as well, but it is something that is largely hidden from view and discussion, as they know it is not a popular concensus.

    It’s worth also noting Donald Tusk’s comments yesterday, where he blames the EU (and specifically the EC) for it’s obsession with integration which is not supported by EU citizens.

  32. ZIPPY

    I think i am correct in saying that this ICM online poll uses their new methodology whilst the previous ICM side by side poll used their old method for online polling.

    That’s true, but last week’s poll (online only) was when they introduced the changes to their online methodology as described here[1]:

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/#listing

    and click on “EU referendum tracker | 24th May 2016” to open. So any changes in this week’s figures should not be affected by the changes:

    Remain 44% (-1)

    Leave 47% (+2)

    DK 9% (-1)

    [1] It’s extremely confusing as the commentary includes the VU and Referendum figures for the previous week but not for the poll being published.

  33. I think the biggest factor in the referendum which the polls are not easily able to predict, is turnout, and it will be the Remain camp more likely to suffer if they fail to mobilise their supporters.

  34. THOUGHTFUL:
    “I think the biggest factor in the referendum which the polls are not easily able to predict, is turnout…”

    Fair enough.

    “…and it will be the Remain camp more likely to suffer if they fail to mobilise their supporters.”

    Does that count as a prediction about turnout? Because it looks an awful lot like one to me.

  35. Following up on comments about NOT voting – what is everyone’s opinion about the options:-

    Is it more principled to – not bother voting – or to actually go to the polling station and – spoil your vote – in some way?

    I remember some years ago at a church meeting that those who “abstained” by not voting in a Yes/No show of hands were roundly castigated by the secretary!
    The leaders were upset when a vote “they were in favour of” was not carried by a small margin!
    This eventually lead to a paper voting system for important decisions, to take away the peer pressure of raised hands.

  36. Does that count as a prediction about turnout?

    No, not a prediction, more of rhetorical question, which I don’t believe has an easy answer.

    People on the phone, internet, or even face to face might state a preference, but, if they don’t put that on a voting slip then the polls won’t be accurate.

    In this referendum the leave voters are likely to be more motivated to cast a vote than the remain, status quo, or don’t knows, hence the view that they might suffer more if they don’t vote.

  37. Unlike Crossbat11, I was definitely voting REMAIN.

    But in the last few weeks I have become minded to vote LEAVE, too. like Crossbat simply to bring about a result that might well tear the Tory party apart. I imagine there may well be many similarly minded.

    And on another issue … the Conservative party may well have broken more rules at GE 2015. http://www.thecanary.co/2016/05/31/whistleblower-exposes-major-new-allegation-tory-election-fraud-scandal-exclusive/.

  38. I really, really do think that people thinking of voting one way or another to discomfit one party or other need to seriously sit down and think again. The future of the Tory party really isn’t an issue here – we are talking about the future shape of the UK’s relationship with the EU and the outside world – something far more important.

    Just as I was aghast at far too many Scots seeing the indyref in terms of a once in 300 years opportunity to get away from those ‘hated’ Tories, I’m similarly aghast that peolpe can seriously think their vote on the EU referendum should be swayed by the impact it might or might not have on the Tory party.

    A few points to consider;

    1) You have absolutely no idea how any of these results will pan out in terms of UK politics. A leave vote might mean a united and rejuvenated Tory party gains the ascendancy, while Corbyn’s Labour rips itself to pieces over his perceived half hearted support, with the Labour leadership being blamed by the pro EU camp for losing the referendum.

    2) A remain vote is unlikely to resolve Tory tensions on Europe. Far more likely to see a self destructive battle for succession after narrow remain win than a leave vote, in my view.

    3) Maybe a leave vote would destroy the Tories. Then what? Exactly the same number of ex Tory voters and sympathizers will be out there. Where do they go? Will your country have change irrevocably, so you can sleep soundly in your beds every night, safe in the knowledge that you can never be governed by a right wing party again?

    4) Say you vote leave, and we leave. In 10 years time, if the UK economy is trashed and the Tory party rebuilt, will you be happy with yourself that you helped to bring on another bout of right wing austerity, or will you pause and wonder what might have happened if you voted on the actual issue at hand?

    I could go on, but you probably get my drift. As with indyref, there are many reasons and motivations for voting on 23rd June, but probably the very worst of them is to target one specific party, in the hope that you can correctly predict the impact on UK domestic politics for the next few decades of a specific result. In my view, that is the daftest reason to vote of all.

  39. Alec
    You make some very good comments.

    But…there will be many who decide which way to vote on their prejudices.

  40. I am of the mind to vote leave, mainly because of the intransigence of certain senior politicians, such as Junker & Merkel, both of which would rather wreck the European project than change direction.

    When faced with a situation we cannot change with a vote there is no choice but to leave.

    I also believe that a Brexit would mean the end of the EU as a political entity as other contributor countries also leave. Even if Germany & France decide to persevere it is likely we would be able to forge trade agreements with those non aligned countries. as well as a much weaker EU if it survives.

  41. @Thoughtful – “When faced with a situation we cannot change with a vote there is no choice but to leave.”

    Hmmm…can we sure that we can’t change anything?

    For my money, one of the tragedies in this whole debacle has been Cameron’s inability to retain natural alliances across the EU. Many countries broadly agree with the UK’s view on the future of the EU, with an increasing number of those southern states formerly not in the reform column now much more receptive to such ideas due to their treatment throughout the Euro crisis. Those calling for more and faster integration are very much in retreat, as Donald Tusk’s comments suggest.

    This doesn’t necessarily mean a new treaty is in the offing (it almost certainly isn’t, come what may) but it does mean that the UK could bring forward a long term process of incremental change and reform, taking a leadership role and building alliances. Something Dave has proven to be singularly useless at, in a European context at least. Corbyn may well be no better, but, in principle at least, there is always scope for change.

    I would also point to Tusk’s comments, as per my post last night, to suggest that merely having this vote, let alone voting leave, is creating pressure for some changes across the EU.

    To be fair to Cameron, no one has ever done this within the EU, and the fact that the UK is having such a debate is scaring the Brussels horses. Even if we vote to remain, I would imagine a half decent UK PM could use the existance of the process to develop a move for change.

  42. @Colin

    “It took me from a possible Leave , back to Not Voting”

    ———-

    Ah, but that was before we heard the killer argument based on the idea that Turkish accession is no more likely than the Dalai Llama and the nuclear thing…

    Which changes everything!! Or nothing, depending.,.

  43. @The Other Howard/Allan C

    “Come on you can do it..;-)
    Well said Allan, Yes come on Crossbat11.

    You’ll ask me to become a Middlesex supporter next!

    :-)

    Worcester boys on course for a win against near neighbours Gloucester today. Heading for a tight finish but our third generation D’Oliveira should spin Glos out on a wearing pitch. Worcs v Glos; ancient cricketing rivalry and I bet the late and great Tom Graveney. former player of both counties, is smiling fondly as he looks down from on high on those flitting little white figures battling away in the shade of the cathedral at New Road, the horse chestnut trees swaying in the breeze and the silvery Severn river, glinting in the sun, flowing gently by. Timeless scene and timeless rituals. Wish I was there.

  44. @Alun

    Have replied on previous thread. Aside from issues pointed out by David Colby, concerning comparing Dalai Llama hypothesis to Turkish accession, your argument evades the greater point concerning how various things, including some not yet anticipated, may be visited upon us via EU, and we don’t have much power to stop it, the way we can vote a change of government here.

    And this is not supposition, but a reality, as experienced by Greece, Italy and more besides. They can circumvent rules, or impose new things, without much say at our end.

  45. Guido with some interesting information on the Right Honourable Member for Sheffield Hallam.

    Time to dig out my Oliver’s Army t-shirt, perchance.

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/01/revealed-how-nick-clegg-cooked-the-books-for-17652/

  46. Thoughtful

    Re your final paragraph at 3.41…..This is why I will vote leave. I want Junker and his cronies to collect their P45’s. The political project killed off and a return to a Common Market, as we were originally sold, in 1973.

    Of course, on a Brexit vote we might be made to vote a second time just so the stupid people can deliver the ‘correct’ result. This has happened on more than one occasion in the past. Certainly in Ireland and in France.

    I am puzzled as to what people think they achieve by spoiling their ballot paper. Do they really think that anyone cares a jot? It’s a bit like throwing something at the TV just because someone says something that you don’t agree with.

    As for voting in a referendum a certain way just because you think it will damage a domestic party more, well that is just plain barmy.

  47. One other thing that needs pointing out about the the various forms of polling adjustment that ICM do, is that they have special ones that they apply to their VI figures. To see what a difference these make you can look at the latest phone polling:

    Con 33% (36%) [31]

    Lab 35% (32%) [37]

    Lib Dem 7% (7%) [7]

    SNP 5% (4%) [4]

    PC 1% (1%) [1]

    Green 3% (3%) [3]

    UKIP 16% (15%) [16]

    Other 1% (1%) [1]

    where () is the published figure but the first is the VI after all weighting and LTV but before “adjustment for Don’t/Know/Refusers”. [] are the weighted, all respondents figures[1]. It’s interesting that the biggest change comes not from LTV but from reallocation to account for ‘shy Tories'[1].

    However similar changes are not made for the EU referendum data (which means it is based on more Labour voters than Tories). If ICM’s ‘shy’ Tories exist and are similar to the declared ones, then this would increase the ratings for Leave above the current figures.

    The swing to Leave from two weeks ago is pretty similar among all three traditional Parties however so analysis of why the movement exists (if it does) would probably require looking at various factors.

    [1] As with many recent phone polls there isn’t much re-weighting required to match the sample to the last election (though there were a bit too many Lib Dems and too few Conservatives). For some reason the old thing about there being too many Labour voters in polls does not apply, though it could be that they are also using Party quotas when selecting interviewees.

    [2] I’ve pointed out before the dangers of ‘double adjustment’ using such procedures.

  48. CARFREW:
    If I reply to that, it’ll be on the old thread where it belongs. No point in dragging a discussion that’s nearing a natural end into this one.

  49. Hireton: @alec: “Could you cite the Treaty provisions which commit the EU to “complete unification” and the provisions which define “complete unification”? Presumably “complete unification” excludes the opt outs which various members already have and the treaty provisions prevent any further opt outs?”

    If people carried out, as far as possible, their own research, they might then be able to confirm or refute for themselves the statements made by others, they may well learn even more for themselves, they’d be able to pass that gained knowledge on to others, and they would obviate the impudently implied requirement for others to do homework they should be doing for themselves.

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