Earlier on today Ipsos MORI published their monthly poll for the Standard. Topline referendum figures were REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 37%, Don’t know or won’t vote 8%. This is the largest lead we’ve seen for Remain yet, but normal caveats apply – never get too excited about a single poll showing an unusual result. The ORB poll in the week also showed movement towards Remain, as did YouGov this morning… but the last TNS and ICM polls showed movement in the opposite direction, so there is no consistent trend.

Two interesting things about the MORI data. One is that the sheer size of the lead is down to the “squeeze question”, the question asked to those people who initially said don’t know asking which way they are most inclined to vote. Those people split 50%-14% in favour of remain, turning a 13 point lead for Remain into an 18 point lead.

The other thing is the Tories. Conservative voters in the sample split almost 2-to-1 in favour of Remain. Conservatives splitting in favour of remaining is not necessarily remarkable (the ORB and ICM telephone polls this week had the same), but the size of the Tory lead among Tory voters seems remarkable.

Meanwhile general election voting intention stands at CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%. Full details are here.


134 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 37%”

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  1. One observation on today’s polls: Jeremy Corbyn has overall a better approval rating, but Cameron is more popular with Tories than Corbyn is with Labour voters. So one presumes there are Conservatives who are “satisfied” with Jeremy Corbyn’s perceived unelectability.

  2. In Ireland, the No campaign against European treaties tends to campaign on, “If you don’t know, vote ‘no’.” That simple message will see the Remainers very comfortably home.

    What happens next?

    It will be interesting to know: are worries about immigration going down according to polls? Has the debate shifted opinion on anything? Has there been a shift to people saying: whatever annoyance I have about immigration, it is a price worth paying? If the underlying views are not changed, then the issue will not go away.

    I can imagine people in a few years saying, “I voted yes, you told us that immigration would go down…” They would really be saying, “I am trying to blame someone else for a decision I made knowing that nothing had been done, but I am now going to pretend that the pretence actually pulled the wool over my eyes.” A little like taking quotes from Heath as proof that the public thought that EEC membership had no constitutional significance.

    Also, if Cameron wins this by having a clear majority of the non-committed, what will that mean for the government’s ability to motivate activists in the next election. This may spoil the Tories’ ground game for years to come.

    I suspect we shall get a clearer idea at the Tory conference. I suspect it will take a lot of stage managing for Cameron and Osborne to get standing ovations.

  3. PETE

    @” well done the French for sticking up for jobs etc.”

    Unemployment rate :-

    UK 5.1%
    Germany 4.2%
    France 10.3%

    The people Robert referred to are destroying employment prospects in France.

    Which is why even a Socialist Government realises that something has to change.

  4. “Cambridge is a decent bet for the largest Remain percentage in England.”

    And if you travel the few short miles to March, Chatteris or Wisbech, you might well expect to find the opposite!

    Partially the EURef divide seems symptomatic of a wider division along the lines of metropolitanism. Growing up, we used the word “townies” to refer to those from larger conurbations, rather derogatorily supposing them to be necessarily pretentious, arrogant and cosseted and lacking in common sense, close community and self-sufficiency. I remember being taken aback the first time I heard someone from one of the very large cities use the *exact same word*, equally derogatorily, to connote unsophisticated, nosy, backward rural types. (“Towns” being the smallest places imaginable to them, and representative of all urbanism to us!)

    I’m not sure that this division in experience sits particularly well on either the traditional left-right economic spectrum or the left-right social spectrum.

  5. Is unemployment in France calculated in the same way as here?

    Elsewhere I’ve seen people write that plenty of people are registered when here they might be classed as working, because of the way it’s determined, plus benefits they get etc.

    Here if can get off the unemployed thing just with a bit of zero hours, it’s not much to crow about.

  6. @ Popeye

    Agreed, I’d expect the Fenland Council area to go for Leave.

    There are a few other places where the two sides have strong territory close together – for example, Havering, compared to Redbridge, or Exeter compared to parts of Cornwall.

  7. Considering how pampered the French worker is, it is interesting how productive they are. 6th compared to the UK in 13th (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_hour_worked).

    Also, if Brussels is so all powerful, how can France have such radically different employment laws than ours?

  8. EOTW

    “Also, if Brussels is so all powerful, how can France have such radically different employment laws than ours?”

    Isn’t it simple? They are all foreigners, so they connive with each other to do down sturdy Brits. :-)

  9. @OLDNAT

    Well that is typical of Johnny foreigner :-)

    Seriously, I feel the accusations of EU interference in UK are exaggerated, often by the Government to deflect criticism of their own policies (The other scapegoat being local government.)

  10. @EOTW

    So a reason to leave thew EU then.

    Remove an excuse for the Government to use ;-)

  11. @CATMANJEFF

    If I thought we could really hold Westminster to account, I might vote Leave.

  12. OK. COTSWOLDTORY suggested upthread that although predicted referendum turnout is 60-75% for young people, in practice nowhere near as many will actually vote.

    So I’ve been trying to find out what the discrepancy was at the last GE between self-predicted turnout and actual turnout among young people ( 65 years) reporting that they are certain to vote. In practice turnout for those two groups was 43% and 78% (MORI, boundaries 1 year lower in both cases).

    So if those figures are representative/correct then there’s little reason to believe that youngsters who’re currently saying they’re certain to vote in the EU ref won’t bother to do so. And (per the last two YG polls) that’s 48% of them. Should have checked that first. Can’t find the relevant data in other recent polls.

    Where did the 60-75% figure come from? Adding the 9/10ers seems to add roughly another 10% to self-predicted turnout, but as I don’t know how any of the pollsters are modelling turnout (PLEASE, GIVE US A HINT!) I’m not sure what to make of that.

  13. MrNameless

    It occurred to me to wonder whether some students are going to be caught out because the referendum falls in the long vacation and they’re registered at their Uni address but will actually be resident elsewhere on referendum day. Do you think this is going to be a significant problem and if so is anybody doing anything about it?

  14. It would be ironic if DC was hoist by his own petard, if the very people who his government have contrived to be unregistered to vote are the ones who would otherwise ensure Remain wins.

    On France, I understand its basket case economy is now growing more strongly than the gilded UK. Could be connected to their basket containing the world’s leading aeroplane maker ( we currently get to make some of the wings) and two leading domestically owned motor manufacturers. Plus of course the companies that operate half our trains, buses and utilities. Thank the Lord we’re not so backward.

  15. Sorbus @ MrN

    Won’t a fair number of students have registered at both their Uni and home addresses?

    Unless students with political views are much moral than those in “my young day”, a number will also take advantage of their being no mechanism to check whether those registered to vote at two places only vote once, to cast two votes.

  16. A similar situation will apply to those affluent souls with more than one residence.

  17. On France, I understand its basket case economy is now growing more strongly than the gilded UK

    How did they manage that with an extreme left wing government?

  18. ComRes poll

    “Remain stays ahead while economy jumps in importance

    There has been a huge rise in the importance of the economy on the EU referendum debate. The proportion of Britons saying that the economy is one of the three most important factors influencing their decision on how to vote has increased 17 points since February (from 38% to 55%), seeing it jump from the third to first on the list of most important issues.”

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-daily-mail-eu-referendum-poll-may-2016/

  19. Colin
    Thanks for making the point I would have done re, unemployment rates in France.

    Carfrew
    Er, I think if you have a job or a business you are employed. If you don’t, you are unemployed.

    Pete
    The reason the unemployment rate is so high, is because it firstly costs a fortune to employ anyone (typically an employer must pay a similar amount to the government, equivalent to the salary of every employee. It is virtually impossible to get rid of staff (say because of a downturn in your business) and if you can, it is very, very costly. Hence, no business employs unless it has to, hence the high unemployment rate. The employment minister understands this and has somehow managed to do something about it.

    David in France

    “Labour ‘out’ voters are less educated.”

    How ‘Emily Thornbury’ of you.

    I accept the French government is not as left wing as it was when elected, or as its manifesto. most of the U turns took place in the first 6 months, once reality of government dawned. I put it on a par with Corbyn though and he is pretty left wing.

    The point of my original post was to highlight the anarchy which happens in Europe, with the apparent connivance of the police. That could never happen in the Uk. The French talk about solidarity but those lucky enough to have jobs show no solidarity with those who don’t.

    When I am about my lawful business, I do not take kindly to being ‘held hostage’ by a bunch of selfish jobsworths. I have no interest in their gripe with their government and strongly object to being dragged into it.

  20. “I have no interest in their gripe”

    But you do. Not everyone caught up in strike action judges the strikers the way you did and abuses them the way you did. You took them to be wrong. That’s a fine and honourable position, but don’t pretend you haven’t made a judgement.
    Your talk of “selfish jobsworths” underscores that judgement. Again, you are entitled to your opinions, so it’s odd that you pretend a lack of interest. It almost seems like you’re portraying your opinion as objective.

  21. There ComRes figures show a very slight lead for Remain among those currently intending to vote for the Conservatives (by 48:46), but Leave has a small lead among those who DID vote for the Tories in 2015.

    These figures look a lot more realistic than the big Remain lead for Tories in the Ipsos Mori poll yesterday. But it’s also the 4th different Phone poll this week to show a lead of some sort for Remain among those identifying as Conservative.

    On a slightly different note, Ladbrokes are now offering identical odds (of 9/4) for a Remain vote of 50-55% or 55-60%. The two bands either side of this (45-50% and 60-65%) also share odds of 4/1. In other words, their expectation is centred on a Remain vote of 55%.

  22. James E

    “their expectation is centred on a Remain vote of 55%.”

    Were that to come about, it would be a crushing defeat for the Brexiteers and they should never be allowed to raise the question of staying in the Union again – at least that’s what many of hem have been saying over the last couple of years (in a similar context). :-)

  23. OldNat
    You could well be right. I asked because I’ve no idea. I know that I was only ever registered in one place when I was a student and always vaguely assumed that registering in two places would be complicated (because I assumed there would be a mechanism for preventing double voting).

    I do remember one friend choosing to vote in his parents’ constituency in 1997 on the grounds that it was a marginal, and the university constituency wasn’t. He made a special trip back to do so.

  24. Sorbus

    In my day (probably in yours, and even in my daughter’s) the restrictions on postal voting meant that there was little possibility of gaming the system to vote twice.

  25. OldNat

    In 2001 I voted in one of the constituencies where they were piloting all-postal ballots. What a palaver! My flatmate and I sat with our forms trying to make sure we each signed the right bits of each other’s and our own and that all the signatures looked kosher.

    Much easier to walk to the polling station.

    I’d hoped that when I was old and doddery I’d be able to get the Tories to take me to the polling station, but the rise of postal voting seems to have put paid to the routine offering of transport to voters.

  26. @ROBERT NEWARK

    “”Er, if you have a job or a business you are employed. If you don’t, you are unemployed.”

    ————-

    Yes, that doesn’t really help with my question now does it. Giving your own definition of employment doesn’t cover how different governments might do it. Like, if someone is in training, they might not be employed on your definition, but might well not count as unemployed in official stats.

  27. Oh look, they’re backing down on TTIP??…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332415

    “Downing Street has headed off a revolt over the Queen’s Speech by saying it will accept a move to exclude the NHS from a controversial EU-US trade deal.

    Tory rebels were threatening to join Labour and the SNP to back an amendment “regretting” the lack of a bill to protect the NHS from the TTIP deal.

    But Downing Street has denied them the chance by saying they will back it.”

  28. (Well, not TTIP, obviously, but the NHS bit…)

  29. COLIN, so the French don’t want low pay, zero hours jobs, good on them.

  30. Alun008

    ” It almost seems like you’re portraying your opinion as objective.”

    Roberts views seem very objective to me. Good for you Robert, I would have done the same.

  31. OLDNAT

    “Were that to come about, it would be a crushing defeat for the Brexiteers and they should never be allowed to raise the question of staying in the Union again – at least that’s what many of hem have been saying over the last couple of years (in a similar context). :-)

    You may well smile, and you are probably correct. However in the longer term, when the EU falls apart, probably with a good deal of bloodshed as it inevitably will, will you still be smiling. Those of us who want out will get our way sooner or later, it’s just that sooner would be better as we would avoid some of the fall out from the collapse.

  32. A lot of nonsense being posted about France. France has a huge and genuine unemployment problem, especially in the larger cities and especially with young people, which threatens social cohesion and is partly responsible for the rise of the far right. All attempts to deal with this problem have been thwarted by vested interests ie those already in work who don’t want things to change. GDP per hour worked is high because of the short working week and employer’s reluctance to take on extra staff when they are busy, they just squeeze more out of people. French workers don’t take tea breaks.

    There is also the issue of so much of GDP and employment being directly due to government spending. GDP in this area is whatever the government says it is and this skews the national figures. Everyone in France knows this and takes government pronouncements with a pinch of salt.

  33. “Labour ‘out’ voters are less educated.”

    Larry Elliot and Paul Mason are clearly deeply uneducated.

  34. TOC:
    “Roberts views seem very objective to me.”

    “My opinion is objective”, eh? Mm hmm.

  35. ROBERT

    A pleasure. Hollande’s tussle with his own party , and what appear to outsiders to be deep seated cultural attitudes in France is very interesting to watch.

  36. PETE

    Its their country. If 10% unemployed is what they want-thats what they will get.

  37. ALUN009

    It always has been. :-)

    Robert and I share the same balanced view of life.

  38. Talking of workers rights, this is an interesting ECJ judgement –

    http://www.thompsons.law.co.uk/ltext/lelr-weekly-66-summaries-viking-laval.htm

    Leftwingers should take note. If a company secures a contract elsewhere in the EU, it is protected under EU law if it wants to import it’s own workers, on lower terms and conditions than workers in the home country, even where there are sector wide employment agreements or national legislation covering employment terms, so long as the company has a valid agreement with it’s employees in it’s own country. Any action by unions to campaign against this risks being deemed illegal by the ECJ as a restraint of the right to association of the company.

    While there are many good things the EU has allowed to happen, there is an increasingly active tendency to support the business agenda against workers rights, with the race to the bottom principle now pretty much enshrined in EU law.

    To decry Labour or left wing opponents of the EU as sub optimally educated is to demonstrate one’s own lack of awareness of the critical issues, in my humble view.

  39. Cumberbatch & assorted Luvvies declare tor Remain.

    The Game’s up :-)

  40. “Larry Elliot and Paul Mason are clearly deeply uneducated.”

    Talking of Paul Mason, I watched him on Question Time last night. I loved the way he weaved the festering Tory election expenses issue into an answer on Prison Reform! That took both skill and chutzpah and the look on Amber Rudd’s face when he did so was an absolute picture.

    Nice way of getting something being largely suppressed by our supine media in front of 2 or 3 million people. Maybe even Alan Johnson and Michael Portillo might have heard about it now!

    Mason and Elliott, by the way, are must-read economic commentators, as is William Keegan, if you want a different perspective from the army of centre right philosopher accountants who proliferate in the media.

    :-)

  41. COLIN, at a guess (expect someone else will no doubt have the figures) our unemployment figures aren’t that great. How many are working but earning sod all (self employed?), how many are on zero hours and how many are part time looking for more work?

    I can certainly see why if your in full employment you’d fight to keep every right you have (holidays, pay increase, sick pay etc) but no doubt there’s many who made it nicely for themselves will be quite happy for others to earn less but work harder……I doff my cap to their kindness , though find it funny it’s always others they think should take less and not those at the top who can often be over paid numpties.

  42. One interesting thing in the MORI poll is just how much the additional filters they put on alter the VI vote between the weighted figures and the headline ones after adjustment. From the updated tables:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-may-2016-tables.pdf

    these are:

    Con 34% (34) [36]

    Lab 38% (35) [34]

    Lib Dem 7% (8) [8]

    SNP 4% (5) [5]

    PC 1% (1) [1]

    Green 5% (5) [5]

    UKIP 10% (10) [10]

    Other 1% (1) [1]

    where () is the percentage of those saying they were 10/10 likely to vote – MORI’s usual filter historically[1] and [] is MORI’s headline after their most recent adjustments.

    Although the unfiltered (though weighted) figures, in phone polls especially, were usually felt to be a bit biased to Labour, a Labour lead of 4 becoming a Tory one of 2 is quite a jump. As I’ve said before I can’t help feeling that MORI and other pollsters may be double-correcting here: adjusting by weighting to the 2015 result (or by using quotas) and then making the same adjustment that, applied to pre-2015 polls, would have been made those polls produce the ‘right’ result.

    [1] Arguably this was always too strict a criterion, not least because of gender bias as women are less like to say they will certainly vote even if they will. In this case 60% of men say 10/10 but only 55% of women. But the mean score is 8.10 for men but 8.22 for women as women are more likely to give an answer in the 5-9 range.

  43. Good morning all from a sunny Reigate.

    THE OTHER HOWARD
    “You may well smile, and you are probably correct. However in the longer term, when the EU falls apart, probably with a good deal of bloodshed as it inevitably will, will you still be smiling. Those of us who want out will get our way sooner or later, it’s just that sooner would be better as we would avoid some of the fall out from the collapse”
    ________

    I think you make a good point. The EU currently looks to be very unstable, especially in the Eastern Fringes where more and more obscure regimes are coming to power.

    Immigration is fuelling resentment right across all member states yet the most vocal nations on immigration, Poland, Hungary and Romania don’t mind the fact that they send millions of their nationals to the UK depressing wages and pushing rents up.

    We keep hearing from the remain side that it’s a two way thing, we have 2 million UK nationals living in the EU and in turn we have 3 million EU nationals living in the UK. The problem with that is the 2 million UK nationals living in the EU emigrated over several decades where the UK has been subjected to 800,000 economic migrants just last year alone!!

    It’s unsustainable and where the remain side might jump up and down with joy come 23rd of June, I just hope they have a credible plan for the future for the UK and its creaking infrastructure, housing crises and creaking NHS because all are under immense pressure due to mass immigration.

  44. Agree Crossbat re Mason Elliott and Keegan.Its very hard to get a different economic perspective in the media
    I find it particularly irritating when media writers spokespeople etc actually have no more qualifications or knowledge of economics than I do but speak with such certainly
    The new itv economics editor -Noreena Hertz -could be interesting
    Whether one agrees with her views or not she is at least very academically well qualified in the economics she’s supposed to report on
    If you look at other commentators some don’t even have o level/gcse level maths
    As for ppe graduates one of my offspring was at oxford a while back and told me most ppe students give up economics after a year as they cant do the maths!

  45. ALEC

    “Labour ‘out’ voters are less educated.”

    Larry Elliot and Paul Mason are clearly deeply uneducated.

    Don’t be silly. This is polling site and all statements are are assumed to be statistical. You know perfectly well that that statement means that Labour ‘out’ voters are more likely to be less well educated on average than ‘in’ voters. Not that every ‘out’ is less well educated than every ‘in’ one[1].

    Whether it’s true or not is another matter, but you’d need to look at polling for that. Certainly Leave voters seem more likely to be older and C2DE[2], which may be taken as partial proxies for a lower level of formal education. It seems not unreasonable that the same might be true of the Labour-voting sub-set. Though there doesn’t seem to be the same pattern among Labour members in the recent YouGov poll, but only 10% of them were Leave, so it’s not a big sample.

    There’s are far too many occurances of this logical-fail (attempting to disprove a statistical statement with individual counter-examples) around, but we really shouldn’t put up with them on UKPR.

    [1] However, fun fact: Paul Mason’s qualifications are in music not economics. Though some might feel that makes him a better commentator.

    [2] For example in the latest YouGov:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/31mkuwrwz2/TimesResults_160517_EU_W.pdf

    Under 25: 66%-17% Remain
    65+: 57%-34% Leave.

    ABC1: 53%-35% Remain
    C2DE: 48%-33% Leave

  46. With reference to “Labour ‘out’ voters are less educated.” This might be a fact. Immigration into the UK is most prevalent in poor areas where those with no or few formal qualifications will be below the national average, incomes will be below the national average and across England poorer areas tend to be represented by Labour.

    Of course I’m only assuming immigration is the main motivation for the so called less educated to vote leave….for many others it’s that as well as accountability.

  47. The underlying UK unemployment figures are a good deal higher than the headline figures suggest. Anyone working 16 hours or more per week is deemed by the DWP to be fully employed and ,therefore, not entitled to JSA. A person working circa 20 hours a week is in reality 50% unemployed – unless he/she does so by choice. If the data was compiled on the basis of FullTime Equivalent numbers several hundred thousand would be added to the published figures. Moreover back in the 1980s most of those now in training , receiving ESA , Incapacity Benefit or the new PIP would have appeared in the headline totals. On a like for like 1980s basis UK unemployment is likely to be well in excess of 2.5 million.

  48. This is concerning. It is very difficult to actually get many benefits you are entitled to. Unlucky desperate people are being screwed by the benefit system.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/unemployment/measuring_unemployment/

  49. @Tully:

    Noreena Hertz is apparently a bit of a media darling but I was struck by her immaturity when I saw her bizarre performance on Newsnight before the last election.

    The other two guests, Matthew Freud and Danny Finklestein were having a pragmatic discussion about political strategy, and she kept butting in with simplistic rants about the lack of nuance. Freud and Finkelstein’s perspective was based on real experience of talking to voters on the doorstep; she came across as an out of touch ivory tower academic who seemed to have confused her undergraduates with the electorate at large.

    I am not sure she is the best choice for a major non-partisan news network.

    The right economic answers might seem very clear to her but she seems very ignorant of the most important aspects of real world economics i.e. the psychology and prejudices of real people.

  50. “. .. where the remain side might jump up and down with joy come 23rd of June, I just hope they have a credible plan for the future for the UK and its creaking infrastructure, housing crises and creaking NHS because all are under immense pressure due to mass immigration…”

    Whatever you may think the problems that this country has, it falls to the Government which was elected last year, rather than the Remain side to have a plan to deal with them. There cannot be a cross-party plan by ‘remain’ or ‘leave’ for matters such as housing or the health Service.

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