YouGov have new EU voting intention figures in today’s Times – REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 40% (tabs). This is YouGov’s biggest lead for remain since March. Only one of YouGov’s last eight polls has shown Leave ahead, so while the regular ICM online polls have a consistent small lead for Leave, YouGov’s online polls are on average showing a small lead for Remain.

Part of today’s poll is due to a methodology change, reintroducing party ID as a weight in addition to past vote. While YouGov’s polls for Scottish, Welsh and London elections earlier this month generally performed very well, there was a consistent overstatement of UKIP support compared to what actually happened. Adding party ID weighting back in addresses that (essentially comparing the YouGov data to the British Election Study data suggested that even with past vote weighting, there were two few people who said they normally identified with “mainstream” parties like Lab & Con, and too many who normally identified with “challenger” parties like UKIP & Grn. This puts that right). The change does does favour Remain a little – in this poll it changed the topline figures by a point, moving it from a three point lead for Remain to a four point lead for Remain.

There was also a new ORB telephone poll yesterday for the Telegraph, which had topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 40%, Don’t know 5% (details are here), and there are new Ipsos MORI figures to come in the Evening Standard later, which Ben Page says are “interesting”…


42 Responses to “YouGov/Times – REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 40%”

  1. “two few people”

    Well, if it was only two ….. :-)

  2. Thanks for the coverage and the analysis. What did the previous YouGov poll show? In any case, it seems like a good week for the Remain camp, at least in terms of opinion polls.

  3. Anthony

    In the “political attention” tables – are SNP and PC classified as “established” or “newer” parties?

    [Established (so generally speaking we’ll be weighting their ID up) – AW]

  4. Weighting to a GE doesn’t feel right in the context of this referndum.

    True. At the GE support for a reactionary party like UKIP is overstated. When people go to the polls, they vote for someone more likely to be in government.

    But in the case of the Euro vote and now this referendum, there is reason for the Grumpy Old Man vote to go out and vote for the party they actually believe in. In this case, UKIP.

    And they do like to get out and vote. That, too, is in their favour.

    It will take a lot for Remain to get enough voters out there and show the same level of concern.

  5. Ipsos Mori poll is rumoured to be showing an 18 point REMAIN lead. It’s a phone poll, of course.

    In a way, this shouldn’t be surprising. The few Phone polls conducted in January and February this year were showing very similar results.

  6. Agree David in France
    As a remainer I hope the polls are right
    Anecdotal evidence- certainly in leafy shIres country is strongly for leave!

  7. While YouGov’s polls for Scottish, Welsh and London elections earlier this month generally performed very well, there was a consistent overstatement of UKIP support compared to what actually happened.

    Yes I noticed that. Matt Singh had apiece a week ago about online polls over-estimating UKIP (far from a new problem of course):

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/11-eu-referendum-update.html/

    but if you look at his chart it shows that most of the problem came from YouGov polls – which admittedly most of the online polls included (I’m also unconvinced by his general thesis that this means Remain is well ahead).

    Roger Scully also flagged it up as a possible problem in Wales a while back because of YouGov’s consistently high UKIP scores in GB VI polls. Though it’s also possible that UKIP’s Welsh vote was knocked by the unexpected 4.4% that Abolish the Welsh Assembly got. Unlike the Greens they weren’t polled for, but UKIP voters may have switched when they saw them on the paper.

  8. @RM
    “UKIP voters may have switched when they saw them on the paper.”
    Agree if you made it:
    “Many who might otherwise have voted UKIP …. ”
    I think UKIP has a ‘following’ from those who will no longer vote Tory, (or Labour or any other left-wing party at any price) but UKIP has not convinced them they have a coherent set of policies and a coherent set of people to carry them out.
    If UKIP did not exist, I suspect that group might spoil a lot of ballot papers rather than abstain. UKIP offer enough for them to vote for, unless or until something better comes along.

  9. Just going to mention again that when I was randomly selected for the Ipsos MORI EU phone poll, it was very very badly handled. There were leading prompt questions asked before the voting intent question, and a squeeze question applied that put bias on answering negatively towards Europe.

    So I firmly put Ipsos MORI’s EU polling in the junk pile.

  10. @syzygy

    Good post dealing with the issues the whole battlebus thing raises. It isn’t just a question of how funds are used but who has more funds to do more of this micro-targeting. As you have noted previously, it also raises questions about our democracy if people can be targeted thus, and I myself find myself wondering rather more about the fptp thing than previously, because it lends itself to this sort of thing.

    And also because in the era of multi-party politics, of increasingly split votes, plus how disenchantment and lower turnout aligned with such targeting can allow a more extremist, increasingly minority view to win an outright majority.

    It’s also worth noting that changing rules to limit union funding will allow greater discrepancies in ability to conduct such targeting in future. Additionally, I find myself also wondering about the longer term. Of the electoral wizzards who helped put Obama in place, Tories got Messina and Labour got Axelrod.

    I don’t know that Axelrod’s approach of building up community engagement necessarily paid enough quick dividends for this election. But maybe over time…

  11. The Ipsos Mori for the Standard has Remain 48%, Leave 35%, Undecided 14%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-may-2016-topline-eu-ref.pdf

    When Undecided are pushed what they are “most inclined to vote for” then the top line becomes Remain 55%, Leave 37%, Undecided 5%.

  12. @Carfrew

    The pre-constituency spending limit is precisely meant to prevent such nationally directed micro-targeting to try and buy swing marginals. Which is why it’s so annoying to see it being represented as a ‘simple error of accounting’ to illegally shift costs from constituency spending to national campaign.

  13. Looking at the Ipsos MORI cross-tabs, I can confirm that when I was polled, Questions 12 and 13 were asked *before* Question 8 (The headline EU question). This obviously would skew the result, altho I’m surprised that it’s apparently skewing in a pro-europe way. This may be a training error with their phone bank, but it still means their EU polling is junk.

  14. @Anthony

    Do we know if any of these EU opinion polls are sampling ex-pat Brits now living overseas? There’s over 2 million such people and, as I understand it, all are entitled to vote in the forthcoming Referendum. It would appear, anecdotally anyway, that they are very likely to be a pro-Remain group. If so, and they are not being factored into the published opinion polls, maybe the Remain lead is actually much larger than is being currently shown.

    As for the polls, the online v phone differences are stark, and only time will tell which methodology proves the more accurate, but the current 44 v 40 YouGov poll does look a little more in line with what most of the others are saying, certainly more so than than the ORB and Ipsos/Mori ones.

    Maybe the ORB and Ipsos/Mori pollsters are getting to the ex-pat Brits!

    :-)

  15. @Jayblanc

    Yes, fair enough, take your point. If we put funding to one side then, one can see that such micro-targeting could still yield disproportionate results if one has enough volunteers to do it, along with the superior analysis. Elections therefore won by which team is better able to use such techniques, which in this case amounted to:

    – identifying which seats have the most suitable demographics for targeting
    – and then which team can craft the best survey questions to identify individual potential swingers
    – and then crafting the best targeted messages to these swingers
    – and the best GOTV campaign etc. of course

    (And of course, some of this can be funded nationally anyway, not just battle uses themselves, but hiring these targeting witch doctors themselves…)

  16. CROSSBAT11

    Do we know if any of these EU opinion polls are sampling ex-pat Brits now living overseas? There’s over 2 million such people and, as I understand it, all are entitled to vote in the forthcoming Referendum.

    They’re only entitled to vote if they are actually registered and they can currently only do that if they have lived in the UK in the last 15 years[1]. But historically not many have taken that up. There were only 106,000 at the last general election:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/world-location-news/too-many-uk-expats-are-still-not-referendumready

    which as a proportion of an electorate in 2015 of 46.4 million is only 0.2%. It may be that more will register for this (and I think they can still do so) but it doesn’t look as if expats will make up a significant proportion of the electorate.

    [1] Bizarrely I think the Conservatives are introducing a system where people can vote in whatever constituency they used to live in, no matter how long ago it was. But this doesn’t come into effect till after the Referendum.

  17. Anthony

    Are the headline figures in the YouGov tables (44/40) after adjustment for likelihood to vote or before? If not they’re not really comparable with some other polls which publish their headline figures after LTV processing (though some are inconsistent even from the same pollster.

    In this case, if LTV isn’t already applied, taking only ‘Certain to Vote’ into account (LTV = 10/10) will produce a result of a tie (Remain and Leave both 47%), while other LTV filters will produce other results.

  18. @ Carfew

    ‘I don’t know that Axelrod’s approach of building up community engagement necessarily paid enough quick dividends for this election. But maybe over time…’

    I’ve wondered this myself and, whilst I don’t think it is necessary to credit Axelrod, I believe that solid engagement in the community has to be the right way forward… and frankly is the democratic way. And that is a major reason for Momentum being created.*

    From my reading about the 40/40 strategy, it is clear that many Conservative Association members do not consider the GE2015 tactic repeatable and tbh many have the same disquiet about its democratic deficit as myself. The majority view is that the Conservative Party must increase its local representation and activist bases for 2020. Unlike the Labour Right, many Conservative Party Activists are by no means certain of a Tory win at the next GE. They can see that a revival of LD fortunes or a major scandal could be fatal.

    * The Blair/Brown intent was a hollowing out of the LP so as to resemble the US Democratic party, eventually abolishing branches and CLPs in favour of supporters’ groups. The Labour Left are hampered by the sudden and unexpected election of Corbyn which meant that there has been no gradual transition from New Labour supporters at Branch executive, Constituency officers, LP staffers, Councillors and the PLP. Therefore, there is much blocking of the leftwing at all levels above the grassroots .. and Momentum is intended to facilitate community grassroots activity which would otherwise be blocked. For e.g. in my own constituency, the left has organised a series of brilliant open meetings with well-known speakers but there are constant attempts to stop them, coming from the Constituency officers.

  19. @Roger M

    “They’re only entitled to vote if they are actually registered and they can currently only do that if they have lived in the UK in the last 15 years[1]. But historically not many have taken that up. There were only 106,000 at the last general election:”

    Many thanks. I was obviously the victim of some misleading journalism (ITN News last night, I think.)! Their report implied that the vast majority of the 2.2 million expat Brits currently living in Europe (1.2 million in Spain alone) were registered to vote in the Referendum. I must admit that I was surprised by that and you’ve now confirmed my suspicions. The ITN piece was sloppy and misleading. In a sense, downright wrong too by the sound of it.

    No great surprise, sadly .

  20. As someone who is heavily campaigning on the Referendum, it seems to me that while all these EU polls are fascinating technically to pollsters, they are pretty much useless as a guide to who is going to win.

  21. @ Roger Mexico

    “it’s also possible that UKIP’s Welsh vote was knocked by the unexpected 4.4% that Abolish the Welsh Assembly got”

    I’d agree that’s possible, but that AtWA vote would need to have been overwhelmingly composed of Kippers to account for the 3.3% overstatement of UKIP in the polls.

    There was also overstatement of UKIP per Online polls on the same day by 2.2% on average across the various London elections, and 1.5% in Scotland. it’s less of a difference than in UK wide elections, but of course these were in areas where UKIP’s support is at its lowest.

  22. Andy Burnham is going to stand for Mayor of Manchester, and Luciana Berger for ‘somewhere else’.

  23. @Syzygy

    “Andy Burnham is going to stand for Mayor of Manchester, and Luciana Berger for ‘somewhere else’.”

    Our old friend Rob Sheffield will be pleased.! In fact Rafael Behr was writing about this in the Guardian today, citing the fact that Labour politicians like Burnham and Berger were seeking Mayoral positions partly because they despaired of Corbyn’s leadership but also felt that power was slowly draining away from Westminster. I’m not too sure about that as a thesis but it’s feasible that following the success of Khan and Rees in London and Bristol that some leading Labour lights have their eyes on personal municipal fiefdoms and, maybe, even kingdoms over the water.

    One of the more interesting developments in British centre left politics possibly.

  24. A positive view of Burnham and Berger moving to regions is to reinforce Labour outside of London.

    It has often been pointed out that in Scotland, the Labour politicians at Holyrood were the B team that were out-gunned by the SNP, with ultimately disastrous results for Labour.

  25. Developing the theme a little further, picture the potential political landscape a year from now with Khan in London, Rees in Bristol, Jones in Cardiff, Burnham in Manchester and Berger in Liverpool. Powerful and high profile Labour figures running major cities and principalities in the UK all, with the exception of Rees perhaps, from non-Corbyn wings of the party.

    As I say; a very interesting dynamic.

  26. CB11

    “kingdoms over the water”

    Jersey and Guernsey?

  27. @ Crossbat11

    ‘Developing the theme a little further, picture the potential political landscape a year from now with Khan in London, Rees in Bristol, Jones in Cardiff, Burnham in Manchester and Berger in Liverpool. Powerful and high profile Labour figures running major cities and principalities in the UK all, with the exception of Rees perhaps, from non-Corbyn wings of the party.’

    That is also my take on the development rather than the rats and sinking ship one. However, it is a bit of a risk for them too.

  28. @ Hawthorn

    You are clearly a much nicer person than I fear I am :(

  29. Have to say I find the mayors and candidates mostly an irritating bunch
    On the whole now and in the past they are failed or mediocre westminster politicians with big egos and thin skins
    Johnson Livingston Khan and now Burnham etc all thinking they desreved so much more
    Dont know much about the others but i hope we don’t just see them using their positions as platforms for their egos but more for serving their communities thoughtfully
    These positions could be very useful and powerful as long as they aren’t just used as springboards to supposedly better things

  30. It is generally looking good for remain and I think the lead will extend the closer we get to the vote

  31. @ Tully

    I think your view is a commonly shared one which is why Mayors are being imposed by Osborne. Apart from Bristol, I think every other offer to have a mayor was rejected by the affected electorates. I think Hartlepool did have one but abolished the post.

    Isn’t there a view that the ‘nations’ will disappear under the final stages of globalisation and that local governments will only exist as regulatory bodies?

  32. OLDNAT

    “kingdoms over the water”

    Jersey and Guernsey?

    Nah, they’re only (part of) a Duchy (Normandy).

    (Some places are proper Kingdoms of course)

  33. SYZYGY

    I think your view is a commonly shared one which is why Mayors are being imposed by Osborne. Apart from Bristol, I think every other offer to have a mayor was rejected by the affected electorates.

    It’s more complicated than that, some places have voted for them, though often on very low turnouts. Wiki has a full list, including the attempts to abolish them:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_and_Wales_mayoral_referendums

    But it doesn’t include those places such as Liverpool and Leicester where the Mayor was imposed by a vote of the Council. Or now Greater Manchester where it is imposed by the Government. It’s interesting that there have been few attempts to set them up by referendum recently.

  34. Roger Mexico

    I’m looking forward to the film –

    Isle of Man : Invasion of the Has-Beens. :-)

  35. Talking of Has-Beens –

    Neil Hamilton demonstrating in the Senedd why he is unfit to hold any office.

    It wasn’t just his attempt to be FM that was “out of order”!

  36. BOINK BOINK
    “It is generally looking good for remain and I think the lead will extend the closer we get to the vote”
    _______

    That’s depressing reading but the good news is..I pick up a German Shepherd puppy tomorrow and up until now I hadn’t a clue what to call him but BOINK BOINK is a real possibility. I really love that name.

    Anyway looking forward to watching the mighty Reds v Sevilla in tonight’s Europa League Final….Cmon the reds…

  37. Are Man Unt in Europe next season?

    ……………I’ll get my coat…

  38. The awful truth for the leave side – and that includes me – is that the polls have generally shown a clear majority for “remain” for years. That doesn’t mean you give up, anymore than any other independence movement gives up.

    What it should have meant was that it was pointless pushing for an “in/out” poll when the time was not ripe. The capital wasted by Farage on achieving a poll he could not win could have been spent on fighting against the European Arrest Warrant, or something achievable.

    Following this site has taught me that shifts in opinion are slow. The effective campaigns come from steadily repeating a message which has resonance – and the Remainers have the best tune in this regard.

    The only equivalent for Brexit would be to repeat immigration every day – and that is always an issue that can be put off to tomorrow. If it was big enough to win for Brexit, Labour would have collapsed in 2010 after Bigotgate – another big story that showed not a blip on the polls.

    I expect Farage thought this was a once in a life time chance to have the leverage to get an in/out poll, just as Salmond thought the opportunity to call an independence referendum could not be passed up. But they both should have waited.

  39. Travelling around the country every week, I find it extremely interesting that Remain apparently has such a strong position in the polls. In my experience whether in rural areas, leafy suburbia, or social housing , it is practically impossible to find anybody over 35 that supports Remain. However I don’t generally deal with that many 18-30 year old’s who may be the most committed Remainers.

    I hope for the sake of the psephological community the current polling is not too distorted by a preponderance of the usually non voting younger generations, who are incidentally probably the most likely to take part in phone and online polling.

    Come the 24th June it could be eggy faces all round for the polling companies.

  40. Everyone I know, except my ukip friend, is an inny.
    I am 53.

  41. Are Man Unt in Europe next season? ……………I’ll get my coat…
    @ALLAN CHRISTIE May 18th, 2016 at 5:43 pm

    I’ve just checked in for my flight home. I’m in Istanbul. My passport shows I was born in Burnley.

    ‘Burnley!’ said the Turk at the check-in desk. ‘Premiership football next year!’

    How cool is that? (In all senses.)

  42. does anyone know how pensioners are classified in terms of social economic groups for polling purposes? all in E regardless of income? or do they get the opportunity to describe themselves as a different class when they are called, in reality do they do so?