EU Polling update

I’ve taken the last week off following the 5th May elections, and so have most of the polls. There have, however, been two new EU polls published over the last week, so just to keep everyone up to speed their topline figures were:

YouGov/Good Morning Britain – Remain 42%, Leave 40%, Don’t know/won’t vote 19% (tabs)
ICM – Remain 44%, Leave 46%, Don’t know 11% (tabs)


202 Responses to “EU Polling update”

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  1. The EU Referendum has often been top story on the BBC news website, yet when you look at the top ten most read stories it struggles to reach top 10.

    I think people are not paying attention at the moment. That may change closer to the election and we may see the polls start to move. Or maybe many people just don’t see it as very relevant to their lives. In which case we’ll be heading for a low turnout.

    It’s certainly not grabbed people anything like the Scottish indyref did. Every village hall in Scotland had packed meetings, people were out marching and campaigning. That’s just not happening with the Euroref.

  2. ICM one was online. Am I right to assume all YouGov stuff is online?

  3. Interesting figure from YouGov:
    How much do you trust the following people in
    regards to the current debate over Britain’s
    membership of the European Union?

    David Cameron:
    TRUST: 47%
    DO NOT TRUST: 45%

    Those figures are for those who voted *Conservative* in 2015!

    I don’t see a way back for Cameron no matter what the result. When your own party have that little trust in you on a key issue, surely it’s only a matter of time before somebody ambitious moves on you.

  4. @Alun

    have replied to you on previous thread. (Particularly enjoyed your complaint of whataboutery, when your whole spiel depended on the whataboutery of summat that hasn’t happened yet, i.e. Brexit!!)

  5. The Polls are close , very close.
    Will we have a situation , similar to the General Election ?
    Is the Brexit vote understated ?

    When I speak to friends , old work colleagues and people in general , most are saying they’re voting ‘out’.

    Perhaps , people are not interested in long winded speeches ?
    Perhaps the scare tactics of the ‘remain’ camp is just winding people up , making them suspicious ? Crying wolf.

    My own , uneducated guess as to peoples’ voting intentions goes like this :

    The majority of the ‘Don’t Knows ‘ will sit on their hands and won’t bother
    voting.
    The ‘remainders’ will vote , but they won’t be fired up to vote.There could be a sizeable number who won’t bother voting.
    The ‘leavers’ will go out to vote . They will be like typical Tory voters of a certain age , like my wife and I. They are very committed. They’ll all go out and vote.

    I suggest peoples’ votes will be influenced by two issues.
    Immigration and Sovereignty and fear of the Unknown.

  6. Sorry , stupid error.
    That should have said ‘ three issues’.

    Please excuse the silly mistake

  7. @Barbazen

    As with Alun, have replied on other thread where, Thanks to sterling work of Sorbus, James, graham, Candy etc… we now know…

    – there were warnings of EU ref. before the Indy ref. after all.

    – polling shows only 3% think EU membership. is important

    So the “broken promise” thing is looking rather threadbare, as is the idea that the majority would welcome another indy referendum following EU ref.

  8. I notice that in the Yougov poll Boris is the least untrusted of the politicians they name (Cameron, Johnson, Farage, Corbyn and Sturgeon). Even he was on -21. I wonder if they’ll become more or less trusted as the campaign goes on? It seems that the British public have a pretty healthy disregard for all politicians.

  9. CARPFREW:
    Talking about the outcome of future events is utterly valid in any political discussion.
    Talking about what might have happened had an outcome that didn’t happen happened is a route to insanity. I intend not to follow into your heart of madness.

    Whataboutery means something else entirely, namely the raising of an unrelated subject to deflect an awkward conversation. You can’t get away from the consequences of Brexit by raising oil prices from two years ago. The referendum will still happen, than the consequences will still happen. Do join us 2016, and buy a dictionary on your way here.

  10. When the chips are down people will go to the polling station not particularly enthused but they will fear the unknown and Remain will have a convincing win

  11. CARPFREW:

    For someone who pontificates on a regular basis about reading other people’s posts you show a remarkable inability to absorb what other say.

    “there were warnings of EU ref. before the Indy ref. after all.”
    Promises from the Conservatives about staying in the EU are broken promises because the Conservatives are not campaigning to stay in the EU. The Tories are neutral.
    Promises from other parties that staying in the EU demands a No vote are broken promises because they have never been in a position to honour them. They weren’t in power, they never attained power, most damningly they mostly voted FOR the referendum (9 June 2015: ayes 544, noes 53).

    It is a clear broken promise. It’s not the only one, but it’s the one that has the most direct consequence on nullifying the indyref result. This is not what the No campaign said a No vote would bring.

    But I spelled this out in the previous thread. You very clearly haven’t understood the above the first time, so I doubt you’ll understand it this time either. Best of luck with it. I’ll be back tomorrow. If you’re still struggling I’ll draw you a picture.

  12. @ Alun099
    Yes, the YouGov poll is online. We haven’t had any phone polls for nearly 3 weeks now.

    @ Robin Holden
    Is the Brexit vote understated?

    There’s good reason to think that it is OVER-stated in the online polls (which are most of those available).

    As in both the 2014 Euro Elections and the 2015GE, last week’s elections showed that UKIP were overstated by online polls. It would be hard to imagine that the same mode which is overstating the UKIP vote is also understating ‘Leave’.

    This is probably why the bookies’ odds are more in line with the phone polls, which typically show around an 8% remain lead.

  13. As no Minister, Spokeperson or Party can bind future Governments all the promises made in the Referendum were worthless.

    Alistair Darling promised that if we remaind we would be guaranteed the same Pension North and South of the border even though any Chancellor could put Regional Pension Rates into a Budget and if it passed bring it in!

    They said that a No vote was the only way to Guarentee we stayed in the EU, but it would only ever be until a UK Government with or without a referendum took us out.

    If in a few years time PM Boris facing a divided Labour lead by Corbyn seeming lukewarm on the EU campaigned to take us out if he won a General election then we could be out by 2020!

    As to the polls, yet again we see that the most likely groups to vote decisively to leave are;

    Over 60, Retired, no Mortgage, CDE social group.

    So if we leave by a narrow margin and the economy dives maybe would we should pay for it by freeze Pensions till 2020, scrap Bus Passes and Free TV licences and decrease taxpayer support for residential care and home support!

    After all why should my children who want to stay pay the price when my parents generation vote to leave and get off free?

    Actually, that’s not in anyway a policy I would support because I don’t believe in collective punishment, but if the Remain Campaign want to continue with project fear I bet getting the idea of those cuts into the debate might scare a lot of pensioners into changing their minds!

    Peter.

  14. @Sorbus

    Apols for missing your energy post earlier. Have replied on previous thread…

  15. PETER CAIRNS:
    “As no Minister, Spokeperson or Party can bind future Governments all the promises made in the Referendum were worthless.”

    This is quite true. But if such promises are broken, some people might choose to change their mind about what they think should happen in the future. Hence the possibility of an indyref2 due a popular perception of a major constitutional promise being broken. Might not work out that way, but the narrative is strong. Now I must go. I have a Eurovision party to attend.

  16. “Now I must go. I have a Eurovision party to attend.”

    Has there been any discussion about how indyref2 / future Scottish independence might affect the UK’s right to an automatic place in Eurovision? Is it a ‘shared asset’?
    :-)

  17. I know the polls say that more oldies favour Brexit than youngsters but I know quite a number of youngsters who are voting out, Some in the family, some not. What is driving them is the fear of unlimited future immigration, particularly from new accession countries, who will want, like all the previous ones, to flood into an already overcrowded island. 66 million now and projected to 80m by 2040 and that is bound to be an underestimate as its a government estimate.

    My own interests, in a narrow way, are best served by voting in, (I own a property in France) but I must think beyond that and to the future. What kind of country do I want my kids to live in? Certainly not one where the infrastructure can’t cope, where English is not everyone’s first language and where all the green belt has had to be be concreted over to build houses and motorways.

    The only way to properly control immigrant numbers is a very strictly controlled points system and that can only be achieved if we become an independant country again. No brainier really.

  18. I’ve had a thought about the analysis that shows that older people and less well-educated people are the most against Brexit. It’s only relatively recently that large numbers of people have gone on to tertiary education, therefore older people have on average received a lower level of formal education, so the same thing is being stated twice over. It would be interesting to know the actual proportions of those with tertiary education in each age group.

  19. Robert Newark

    You may personally know a fair number of young people planning to vote out. However polls seem to show that by a substantial number this group is in favour of staying. Whether they will come out to vote is more the question.

    Immigration will not cease of course with a points based system of course and given our economic needs a points based system will just allow in pretty much the same numbers and type of worker we already receive. The market itself acts as a version of a points based system in essence.

    As for problems with infrastructure provision such as housing this will exist whether we are in or out of the EU and is a failure of government not of being a member or not.

  20. Pete B: “I’ve had a thought about the analysis that shows that older people and less well-educated people are the most against Brexit.”

    I think you meant in favour of Brexit, in which case you are probably right. I think when I graduated in 1970 about 8% of young people received a university education; now it’s more like 50%.

    It would be interesting to see polling evidence on leave/remain amongst those with a first degree or higher, by age group. And if so, whether there is any difference in voting intentions between old and young graduates. Anyone know if this is available?

    Looking at below the line comments on the Guardian website, there certainly seems to be a correlation between literacy and use of evidence-based reasoning, and support for remain.

  21. Somerjohn
    Quite right. Slip of the mind.

  22. SOMERJOHN.
    Good Evening from a lovely Bournemouth East.

    Do you think that the Labour Party is fit for the get out the vote task ahead?

  23. I am on the fence at the moment with regards in/out vote, but I think Cameron has really annoyed me with the pointless “renegotiation” as well as Obama poking his nose in, so I’m voting out. Most I talk too are fed up with immigration and the resulting highs house prices and congested roads etc, and are swayed towards out, although many might note vote, which could be a factor, which side can get their vote out?

  24. @James E

    “Has there been any discussion about how indyref2 / future Scottish independence might affect the UK’s right to an automatic place in Eurovision? Is it a ‘shared asset’?
    :-)”

    The Eurovision Song Contest is run by the European Broadcasting Union, which is not an EU body and indeed includes such non-EU members as Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Israel. Provided the UK remains in the EBU, it will be eligible to enter the ESC. Further, provided it continues to be one of the top 5 contributors to the EBU budget, it will continue to gain automatic entry to the Final of the ESC.

  25. @James E

    Ignore my last post. I misread yours. Sorry!

  26. @RAF

    Sounds like another international bureaucracy that we should be campaigning to leave. Do you know how big the Uk contribution is preferably in £millions-a-week? I need to paint it on the side of my blunder bus.

  27. George Galloway has said he won’t run in Tooting.

    Whether he will toot in running has not been made clear.

  28. ComRes Online Poll

    Con 36 Lab 30 UKIP 17 LD 8 Grn 4

    This has been the most pro-Tory of the monthly polls since May 2015.

  29. I seem to remember Anthony saying some time ago that it had been shown that when Don’t Knows made up their minds they tended to do so along the same percentage divide as the Do Knows. Is that right, and is it likely to be true for the referendum, Anthony?

  30. Chrislane1945: “Do you think that the Labour Party is fit for the get out the vote task ahead?”

    Well, I’m not a member soI’m not in a good position to judge. But to the extent that young, well-educated people tend to support remain, and the same demographic has flocked to join the Labour Party, you might expect that they would have plenty of eager foot soldiers to get the vote out. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s much evidence yet that the new members are up for the hard slog getting the vote out. And I wonder how motivated the grizzled old veterans will be to get out there and save Cameron’s bacon?

    But as I said, not my area of expertise. Calling Mr Nameless…

  31. I am intrigued by the disparity between some of the polls.
    I note most of the ‘opinion polls’ which indicate a close run referendum. I also look at an online poll at Pollststion.uk/eu referendum. This site has been open for 2 months and would indicate a landslide win for Brexit.
    Since I have monitored this site 82% want to LEAVE, 14% want to remain while just 4% are undecided. I am completely puzzled as to why there is such a marked difference.

    [I should do a reference post on this at some point, but google Literary Digest 1936. At any election there are always great big open access polls like this, that are always overwhelmingly wrong yet always convince some who don’t know any better – AW]

  32. SOMERJOHN.
    Hello to you.

    The new members tend not to attend ward and branch meetings, and tend not to do the door knocking and leaflet drops.

    The really active members tend to be pre-Blair members; the 1994 intake were not good at the work either.

    It is often forgotten that Old Labour CLP members voted for Blair in July 1994

  33. GRAHAM

    ComRes Online Poll

    Con 36 Lab 30 UKIP 17 LD 8 Grn 4

    This has been the most pro-Tory of the monthly polls since May 2015.

    No it isn’t. In fact a 6 point lead is less pro-Tory than any ComRes online since last May except last month. Changes from that are:

    Con 36% (+1)

    Lab 30% (-)

    UKIP 17% (+1)

    Lib Dem 8% (-)

    Green 4% (-)

    SNP 5% (-)

    Other 1% (-)

    So about as minimal a change as you can get – a couple of tiny movements that just trip the rounding up. Tables are here:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Sunday-Mirror-Independent-Political-Poll_May-2016.pdf

  34. Roger M

    I think that’s what Graham was saying: since May 2015, Com Res has typically shown bigger Tory leads than other polls. I assume he was offering a context for the latest six point gap.

  35. Chrislane1945: “The really active members tend to be pre-Blair members; the 1994 intake were not good at the work either.”

    Hello to you too.

    So how motivated do you think these older members will be? My hunch is their pro-EU feelings will be as lukewarm as Corbyn’s appear to be, and given that most Tory activists seem to be pro-Brexit, and there is only a rump of LibDems left, there doesn’t seem to be much prospect of an effective GTVO operation. Except, perhaps, in Scotland. But then, is anyone on either side doing any canvassing as a basis for referendum day activity?

  36. “Calling Mr Nameless…”

    Reporting in. Personally, I’m a bit hesitant about the referendum. I haven’t fully made up my mind, and I’m not enthused enough to bother campaigning.

    However, you didn’t just ask about me. From personal experience, I think the Labour grassroots members are perfectly happy to campaign for Remain, as they don’t see it as a Cameron-led campaign. Indeed plenty of the more Corbynite folks see it as an anti-Tory and anti-UKIP fight, which fires them up more.

    As far as the kinds of supporters who are enthusiastic, it’s a combination of old and new – those who’ve been in the party since Kinnock, Smith or Blair are fully up for it, as are those who joined in the last year. It’s those who joined under Brown and Ed Miliband who’ve been having a tough time over it.

    There’s a certain amount of demoralisation among those people generally. Plenty are disappointed largely because “Not as bad as we thought!” was the recurring theme throughout those leaders’ years. Now the party’s in a bad way and doesn’t look to be getting better, so getting their energy up is tough. The Corbynites are getting their way, while the old hands have been through ups and downs before and are happy to get on with it, so they’re both trying hard.

    While there was initially a real problem with getting the new members to campaign, I think they’re slowly coming into it. Both on our weekend in London and on polling day last week, more than half the Sheffield Labour Students campaigners we had out had joined since the last election.

    That requires engagement and help from older members of course, but when push comes to shove they are largely minded to get involved.

  37. Muddy Waters
    ‘I think that’s what Graham was saying: since May 2015, Com Res has typically shown bigger Tory leads than other polls. I assume he was offering a context for the latest six point gap.’

    Correct. That is precisely my point!

  38. Mr Nameless

    That’s an impressively rapid appearance. I feel a bit like Aladdin!

    Your summary is actually a lot more positive than I’d expected – as you’ll see from my rather downbeat response to ChrisLane above.

    The EU question is so fundamental to the future of people in this country that I really hope the views of young people will carry more weight than us boomers who will mostly be comfortable enough either way – and our ranks contain far too many ignorant old fools.

    While I’m not convinced that Corbyn can ever overcome the weight of small c – conservatism and tabloid headwinds, anything that increases involvement at grassroots level and introduces a new generation to politics at a personal level has to be good. I kind of hope that Corbyn will do the groundwork and a more electable leader will follow to capitalise on that.

    I say all that as someone who’s never missed a voting opportunity since 1970, and never voted Labour!

  39. I’m getting mightily suspicious of the continual drip-drip on various comment forums of people claiming to have been in two minds but to have swung to Brexit as a result of Cameron’s exaggerations and Obama’s opinions.

    Either Leave are going to romp it due to a major swing that polls are failing to pick up, or this is a Brexiteers’ tactic to convince other waverers that the tide is flowing out…

  40. In Scotland the SNP won’t be running a GOTV because they have no idea who the pro-EU voters are. No canvassing has been done on the EU question because of the focus on the Scottish elections. I suppose it is the same for the other parties. Another reason that having the EURef so close to other elections is a problem.

  41. BigFatRon
    “or this is a Brexiteers’ tactic to convince other waverers that the tide is flowing out…”

    If that’s what you think, try posting stuff like “I was wavering, but now I’m voting Remain because……”

  42. Can I ask what GOTV means? I suppose it’s not Get Out TransVestites?

  43. @ RAF (re Eurovision)

    Thanks for that.

    They’ve changed the rules again the year without asking us first, haven’t they?
    :-)

  44. @PeteB
    Life is too short…

  45. BigFatRon

    It was a very common device during the indyref – and equally transparent.

    Wait for the use of the Eurovision song contest – nul points for the UK, and we’re out! :-)

  46. Where I am in London (which may be another country, I know) I have barely seen any activity by new members.
    All the canvassing and leafletting load is being carried by the usual suspects, not many of them young. We had a flurry from Momentum around station leafletting on 4 Jan where they told us old stagers that we were doing it all wrong, we should have a massive team on one or two stations, and they would organise separately. We managed to get 2 or 3 canvassers on all 20 stations in the borough from 7 am. 2 Momenta (grin), one in his 40s, the other his 60’s turned up at one station at 9.30 after most of the commuters had gone, and that was their massive team.
    All except one of our ward organisers for the mayor campaign are remainers and all are carrying on canvassing, leafletting, etc though the intensity and enthusiasm haven’t cranked up yet.
    If the figure I saw yesterday is right and fully 25% of 18-24 year olds are not registered to vote (and polling suggests they would be strongly remainers) then this piece of very dubious electoral policy could backfire spectacularly on Cameron and may indeed lead to WW3

  47. Pete B: “Can I ask what GOTV means?”

    Getting out the vote. Although, come to think of it, is it GTVO?

  48. Graham

    Apologies. The trouble is that we use ‘polls’ both to refer to a number of individual polls and, synecdochely, to the pollsters that produce them.

    Pete B

    You’ve been watching too much Eurovision.

  49. Oh, and one of our new members, when contacted to seek his assistance in the campaign, requested that our existing canvassers tone down the door knocking as it was disturbing his slumber.

  50. @ CHRISLANE1945

    ‘It is often forgotten that Old Labour CLP members voted for Blair in July 1994’

    I certainly did not… but I did put up and shut up (in public anyway)….

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