Final polls…

TNS and ComRes have released final London polls yesterday, YouGov have released final Scottish and Welsh polls. Here’s a quick run down…

  • TNS in London have Sadiq Khan ahead of Zac Goldsmith in the first round by 45% to 33% (Caroline Pidgeon is third on 7%, followed by Peter Whittle on 5%). Once second preferences are reallocated Khan would win by 57% to 43%. (tabs)
  • ComRes in London have Khan ahead by a similar margin – he leads by 45% to 36% in the first round, with Caroline Pidgeon and Sian Berry both on 6%. Once second preferences are included Khan wins by 56% to 44%. (tabs)
  • YouGov in Wales have final figures of constituency: CON 21%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 16%; regional CON 20%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 16%. (tabs).
  • YouGov in Scotland have final figures of constituency CON 19%, LAB 22%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; regional CON 20%, LAB 19%, LD 6%, SNP 41%, GRN 9% (tabs).

UPDATE: And finally, YouGov’s final call London poll for the standard:

  • First round: KHAN 43%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 7%, PIDGEON 6%; Second round: KHAN 57%, GOLDSMITH 43% (tabs)

336 Responses to “Final polls…”

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  1. “I want to be self-sufficient on shrooms.”

    ———–

    A prediction for shrooms would explain many things…

  2. Peter Cairns
    “Coburn turned up at the Dingwall count in a plumbers van!!!”

    My dear! Was he one of those working class fellows by any chance? How indescribably insolent of him.

  3. Predilection

  4. @Man in the Middle

    “Pretty shocking that 6 years into government, making austerity cuts and this fiasco with junior doctors,
    the Conservatives are still picking up local councillors, and surging in Scotland.”

    It’s surprising to see someone who self-avowedly displays their non-aligned and objective credentials swallowing the Tory post-election spin more or less verbatim. Cameron was saying exactly the same thing in Peterborough earlier today and I expect the same script was handed to every other party spokesman put in front of a microphone today.

    It’s nonsense of course as others like Graham have already pointed out. We’re one year into the five year term of the first majority Tory Government elected in nearly a quarter of a century. We’re not six years into a Tory administration at all. We’re probably only about 5-6 months past a Tory victory honeymoon and it really is piffle to equate this with local elections taking place 3-4 years into the term of an incumbent government.

    Anyway, I thought the last Government was a coalition featuring the Lib Dems. We’ve only had a Tory Government for 12 months.

    I don’t discount the problems for Labour amongst the results today, particularly in Scotland, although the Tory “surge” is a bit of an anaemic one and exaggerated by Labour’s meltdown, but there are real worries for the Tories too. No recovery in Wales and pushed into third place by Plaid, failure in London and some pretty poor results in the South and in the marginals of the West Midlands. In my local council, Redditch, a Tory parliamentary seat since 2010, Labour headed the popular vote by 10% and the Tories were only four points ahead of UKIP, very nearly pushed into third place in the popular vote. UKIP came second in more wards than the Tories where Labour came first.

  5. After 103 councils reporting, Labour have lost 24 Councillors and the Conservatives have lost 15.

    So against an election (2012) when Labour were pretty high, and the Conservatives pretty low, the only reasonable conclusion is that both parties have gone backwards, so neither have anything to crow about.

    One could argue that falling back from a previous high point isn’t as bad as falling back from a previous low point.

    I think the situation in Scotland for Labour is the end of a long process. I don’t think anything Labour could have done in the last few years could have prevented. When the sands of time are running out……

    My local MP was on R4 this morning – Jo Cox. She was quite negative about JC. I also know plenty in the CLP, and if she pushes against JC, her local party will not be too happy.

  6. “surging in Scotland”

    Really?

    Isn’t it more likely that when they dropped back to about 15% last time in 2011 from close 18% in 2007 it was because a lot of Tories voted tactically for the SNP to kick out Labour.

    No need to do that now Labour are in the doldrums. Still they both got 22% of the vote, so it’s mostly about winning a few constituency seats.

    Labour did slightly better in the constituency seats by about 1%, but the Tories around 3% better on the list leading to 7 more seats. 31 to 24 on roughly the same share is more about individual seats than a collapse.

    They should proportionately have got about 28 seats, so the Tories got more than their share, 24%, and Labour less, 19%! The LibDems got ‘4% of the seats on 8% of the vote, again losing out like Labour!!!

    All from an electoral system largely designed by Labour and the LibDems.
    Don’ you love it when a plan comes together!

    Peter.

  7. I have no problem with a Plumbers van but if you arrive in one at a count you know plumber jokes are going to be in the Pipeline and people will Tap into that!

    On Corbyn, I was talking to one of our MP’s who I know quite well and he said Corbyns problem is that his supporters tend to shun Journalists and walk past them seeing them largely as the enemy or at least part of the problem with Punch and Judy politics, while the Blairites tend to flock to them.

    His view is that a very negative side of the lobby system is that individual journalists favour politicians that give them a regular supply of easy copy and the juicier the better, so regardless of party people focusing on important but dry and dull issues that the media can’t get a good story from or who aren’t interest in selling it or themselves get overlooked.

    Meanwhile the ones with egos who can’t wait to spill the beans or spread gossip get in the papers, which suits them and the journalists but fills the papers with froth about nonsense.

    So every day the side that wants to be serious and do the work and ignores the press gets pasted by the side that is more interested in making mountains out of mole hills!

    Peter.

  8. ALEC

    From your last post I think we have found some common ground. :-)
    …….

    Onto the wider UK picture… I know all the results are not in for the council elections but so far Labour have lost under 30 seats. You have to hand it ol Corby though, on the basis so far he has defied many pundits who were suggesting he would lose hundreds of seats.

    Also I’ve just checked the amount of seats Labour held going into the election and it’s well over 1,100, Tories 640 and Lib/Dems 240 so I suppose Labour had actually hit the ceiling last time around and the Tories and Lib/Dems couldn’t really go any lower.

    Not directly related to Corby but Labour again have defied the pundits in Wales and lost only 1 seat. Scotland as far as I’m concerned is nothing to do with ol Corby, Labour have been disintegrating since Blair, Brown and Milly.

    And the Mayor elections look good for labour as well but the media appear to be obsessed with Labour failure?

    The Tories despite all EU splits have also done quite well across England but again they were starting from a much lower base in terms of council seats than Labour so they surely must had hoped to pick up quite a few extra seats. Wales was bad for them but Scotland would have made up for Welsh blushes.

    I can’t wait to see all them big 7 footer UKIP peeps descend into the Welsh assembly. Carwyn Jones will have his hands full tyring to keep law and order in the chamber. I know it’s naughty to say this but they’re just Anglicised Westminster rejects meddling their way into Welsh democracy.

  9. The Tories can be pleased with these results. Most of the UKIP votes will be hoovered up by the blues at the GE , Labour don’t know who or what they stand for at the moment and, without their 50 Scotch seats, the reds are out of office for probably the next two elections – uinless they see sense, ditch Corbyn, and move back to the centre ground.
    How they do that with the membership they’ve got now is the question.
    Teflon Dave rides on…..

  10. Probably to be expected they’ll shun journos if they know their words’ll get twisted out of all recognition anyway. While those who know they’ll get a favourable press may flock to journos!!

    Did Miliband shun journos? Look what happened with his Dad? Or bacon sarnie incident…

  11. The PNS (projected national share) is:

    Labour 31% (up 2%)
    Conservatives 30% (down 5%)
    Lib Dems 15% (up 4%)
    Ukip 12% (down 1%)

  12. Jasper
    ” Most of the UKIP votes will be hoovered up by the blues at the GE”

    Could be the other way round depending on how the referendum goes!
    ————–
    Who’d have predicted that the Libdems would make the most gains in England? (29 up to now)

  13. @Catmanjeff

    Isn’t it arguable that the long-term trend is still one of increasing fragmentation of “big party” politics, with any movement to the contrary in the 2015 GE being more a fallout of Lib Dem collapse than an active movement back to the “duopoly”?

    With various regions of the UK seeing different winners at the expense of different losers, who would be a tactician for a UK-wide party at the minute? When politics no longer looks like a zero-sum game negative campaigning ought in theory to be less productive, certainly in the medium-term. Maybe history will eventually be written by a coalition of various managed decliners/retrenchers.

  14. Allan Christie

    “but they’re just Anglicised Westminster rejects meddling their way into Welsh democracy”.

    Oh dear, you really think the Welsh people love the “senedd”??
    The principality is fertile ground for Nige and his merry band – has always been a small”c” conservative place. Labour are declining there as has happened in Scotland because, once again, metropolitan liberals have lost touch with the real Labour people of the valleys.

  15. Good Afternoon from Bournemouth-in-Dorset- where many people turned up for the Referendum vote and left when they found that we had the Police Commissioner vote.

    JASPER22.
    I agree with you that Cameron will be happy that he is ahead after being there since 2010.
    There will be a new feel to the Government next year when we have a new PM and Government.
    I will be interested to see the final vote shares across the UK eventually.

  16. Hoping to Bury U-Turn klaxon alert: Morgan is announcing a reverse on the plan to convert all schools into Academies.

    Yet another defeat for the ineffective opposition then.

  17. CROSSBAT

    I’ve always taken it to read as man-in-the-midden.

  18. Projected National Vote shares show Labour ahead:

    Lab 31% (+2)
    Con 30% (-5)
    LibDem 15% (+4)
    UKIP 12% (-1)
    Oth 12 % (-)

    Figures from BBC with changes from 2015GE in brackets.

    So Lab and Lib Dems up, Con and UKIP down. Not what was predicted, is it?

  19. @Jasper22

    Scotch seats?

    I like the idea of that actually: “Bring me my drinking chair!”

    ;)

  20. And weren’t a few wise sages predicting labour would lose 150 council seats?

  21. Popeye,

    It was probably an auto correct but I once saw someone write about a “Scotched Earth” policy and thought expensive but not really a deterrent!

    Peter.

  22. JASPER22
    Allan Christie
    “but they’re just Anglicised Westminster rejects meddling their way into Welsh democracy”.
    ………
    “Oh dear, you really think the Welsh people love the “senedd”??
    The principality is fertile ground for Nige and his merry band – has always been a small”c” conservative place. Labour are declining there as has happened in Scotland because, once again, metropolitan liberals have lost touch with the real Labour people of the valleys”
    ________
    Well that may be the case but Plaid have roots in the Welsh speaking areas especially in the West and North West.

    Labour traditionally have roots in the valleys and across south
    Wales and the Tories have roots in rural and North Wales benefiting from the English retiree vote.

    UKIP?? They just got blown over the Bristol Channel and got lucky. ;-)

  23. London mayor – Con to Lab swing of 7% in Bromley, described by the BBC as ‘staggering’.

    Still the news is of Labour travails.

  24. VALERIE
    And weren’t a few wise sages predicting labour would lose 150 council seats?
    ________

    I’ll happily admit that I posted a few articles last week saying just that but it wasn’t my prediction but what I read from the pollsters and online papers.

    So if the experts can’t get it right then what chance do we have as ordinary voters but in fairness

    YouGov in Scotland have final figures of constituency CON 19%, LAB 22%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; regional CON 20%, LAB 19%, LD 6%, SNP 41%, GRN 9%

    Hats off to Yougov almost nailed it.

  25. Mind you, BBC are still having a lengthy conversation with Ken about whether Hitler acted legally in the 1930’s, what Lenni Brenner wrote in 1982 etc, etc.

    The words ‘Ken, shut the [email protected] up’ come to mind. The man’s a loony

  26. Labour council seats now down 25, Tories down 20.

    Wouldn’t guess that from the coverage.

  27. Hi, please can someone check that I have not entered a parallel universe. The BBC site appears to show that Zac Goldsmith has 51.6% first preferences on the first round of voting for London Mayor, 97,520 votes.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/london/results

    The site does say that counting is underway – perhaps the first round is not complete?

    Has someone (possibly me) made a huge mistake somewhere along the line?

  28. That’s just for Bromley – the only place to have declared.

  29. @Alec

    “Wouldn’t guess that from the coverage.”

    Why it’s almost as if a lot of people have a vested interest in Labour doing badly.

  30. Phew…

  31. John Curtice on R4 WATO suggested that Labour might pip Tories to the post if this had been a GE. However, the BBC ignored such a suggestion as detrimental to their overall narrative.

  32. BBC now showing Lab and Con losses both at 24. Bigger %age loss for Con, of course, as started with far fewer seats.

  33. ALEC

    Can I bring you back to Scotland for a second?

    Ruth Davidson (not taking anything away from her, good result for her and her party) said throughout the election Scotland needs a strong opposition. She is now the official opposition but it’s 6 seats smaller than the previous opposition.

    Now..the SNP are 2 short of a majority. I’m assuming the speaker will come from one of the other parties and not the SNP so that reduces the SNP’s deficit to 1. The former SNP candidate who is now a Green list MSP,…. well I’m sure he could be sweet talked at rejoining the SNP at some stage and as a list MSP no by-election required so that would then give the SNP a 1 seat majority.

    Think I should contact Bute House? ;-)

  34. Massive swings to Lab from Con in London. This might change the narrative.

  35. Marginal, but now Con have lost more English council seats than Lab

  36. Interesting seeing graphically just how many seats (and the kind of % swing) Labour would need to win a GE outright on BBC. With Corbyn struggling, it seems impossible.

    However, nobody seems to be considering the effect of unwind of the Tory vote in their unexpectedly gained Lib Dems seats. Places like Yeovil, Eastbourne, and the Devon/Cornwall seats (where Labour’s performance is irrelevant anyway) spring to mind as highly likely to revert back.

    Even if LDs only take back 1/3-1/2 of those they lost, it would surely make Corbyn’s job challenging for 2020 much more realistic and thus very threatening for the Tories?

  37. Well I think we can safely say that in England the Tories have ended up taking a bit of a beating, especially given the expectations going into the poll. It seems the electorate are quite capable of punishing both main parties, when both are engaged in self-harming behaviour.

    The UK Tory party owes a great debt of gratitude to Ruth Davidson for providing a useful counter-narrative. A Tory revival in Scotland is much less “important” in electoral terms than problems in England, but it is much more interesting news.

  38. @Sssimon – there is some evidence that Lib Dems are pushing back against Tories, but it is not spectacular.

  39. TOH:
    “I don’t see any respect in that comment.”

    The respect is for the speaker. What the speaker was saying was claptrap.

    A longer way of putting it would be “I don’t mean this as an attack on you, but you’re just said something that’s nonsense”.

    I don’t think it’s a problem to point out that someone has said something that strikes you as total rubbish. I agree that I would have overstapped a mark if I’d said something personally insulting. For example, if I’d said, say to you, “who asked you, you malodorous knave?” then I think your intervention might have had some merit.

    Next time I read claptrap (let’s say, for example, claptrap from you), I’ll be sure to convey more eloquently the full amount of respect I have for that person, so that anyone who is… prone to misunderstanding… won’t think I respect them any less than I actually do.

    I certainly wouldn’t want Candy to think I don’t respect him/her.
    And I certainly wouldn’t want you to have the wrong idea about the amount of respect I have for you.

  40. 31% to 30% to 15% to 12% National Share of Vote so far, according to BBC.

    GRAHAM might be able, will be able, to tell us how that compares with 1980, 1998 and 2011.

    Labour doing brilliantly Corbyn says

  41. ALUN009

    I repeat it wasn’t claptrap, it was her opinion. I never use terms like that as I think they are disrespectful of another’s opinion, just a matter of manners to me.

    As it happens I tend to agree with her view, certainly it seems to me as at least as valid as yours on the issue.

  42. @ Chris Lane1945

    The comments I’ve heard form Jeremy Corbyn are that Labour “hung on” and “grew support in a lot of places”.

    Where do you get your quote:
    “Labour doing brilliantly” Corbyn says

  43. Usually, in local elections, the party in power nationally gets a bit of a kicking. One would expect this to be amplified in this election because Tory councillors are implementing Tory cuts (or get blamed for doing so.) There is no way to sell this narrative that would make Torys more popular. There is also the fact that the ground troops are completely distracted by the EU stuff which splits the party down the middle. I would guess that Labour, with their enthusiastic Corbynistas, have been able to fight a much better ground war, as have Lib Dems where they still have a presence. This all matters more in low turnout elections. Despite the ministerial denials, Brexit is probably a vote loser unique to the Torys at this election.

    Only two things surprise me. Why haven’t UKIP done much better and the Conservatives much worse? I am not surprised that Labour have mostly held their ground.

    Finally, apart from the Scottish situation where the Conservatives seem to be building up a presence in some winnable Westminster seats, I would guess that these results have zero relevance to 2020. All IMO.

  44. Of the seven London Assembly constituency seats declared so far the vote share is:

    Labour 42.3%
    Conservative 33.4%
    UKIP 8.8%
    Green 8.6%
    LD 6.4%
    Other .5%

  45. If we just look at the numbers inestead of expectations and this is a numbers site after all, isn’t it these are the results:

    Of Scotland, Wales and London, Labour will govern two, the Tories in none.

    Tories go up to second place in Scotland, go down to third place in Wales.

    In the English Councils, Labour wins 51% of council seats (after 112 of 124 councils), the Tories are at 29%. The Tories lose 32% more council seats than Labour. The Tories lose 5% of their council seats, Labour loses 2% of theirs, falling further behind Labour.

    Of course Labour also wins London convincingly with a big swing.

    And these results come on top of the high watermark Labour was at in 2012, when they lead the Tories nationally by about 10%.

    The Corbyn haters really have nothing to stand on.

  46. from Beeb live text, cab driver’s view on the completion of a cycling “superhighway”:

    “Boris Johnson has done more damage to London than the Luftwaffe”.

    also, “shadow chancellor John McDonnell has told detractors of Jeremy Corbyn to stop carping and get behind his leadership. ”

    Which shows how our memes are catching on…

  47. ‘John Curtice on R4 WATO suggested that Labour might pip Tories to the post if this had been a GE. However, the BBC ignored such a suggestion as detrimental to their overall narrative.’

    I’m frankly surprised at John Curtice engaging in a frankly pointless comparison between local elections and a general election. FWIW, the graphic Jeremy Vine displayed showed the Tories with 300 odd seats and Labour on about 250, so even that is unclear.

    Anyway, it’s not a GE, and it’s futile trying to extrapolate local election results into a future election, unless the gains or losses run into the several hundreds, possible thousands. Michael Foot, Miliband, Hague etc, etc, etc, all gained big in local elections and crashed to defeats at proceeding general elections.

    I see the same conclusions being drawn after every set of local elections, without exception.

  48. So many non sequitur arguments.

    Anyway, here in the socialist republic of Merseyside, both Brexit and the end of the coalition have a clear effect. The drop in UKIP is roughly the same as the increase in LibDem. So here (and I guess in many Northern places) it’s really the old partition: Labour and ABL.

    Paul Mason (now a radical) has a decent write up (certainly better than tha of his former colleagues’).

    https://medium.com/mosquito-ridge/elections-2016-the-scottish-earthquake-continues-f829864192b5#.l9f2zddi6

  49. With only the North East left to declare the London Assembly constituency vote share breakdown is:

    Labour 42.3%
    Conservative 32.8%
    Green 8.7%
    UKIP 7.9%
    LD 7.5%

    Wonder what the list vote will look like?

  50. “I never use terms like that as I think they are disrespectful of another’s opinion, just a matter of manners to me.”

    —————–

    Don’t worry, oldnat will no doubt rush to condemn it as he’s had kittens over less…

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