Final polls…

TNS and ComRes have released final London polls yesterday, YouGov have released final Scottish and Welsh polls. Here’s a quick run down…

  • TNS in London have Sadiq Khan ahead of Zac Goldsmith in the first round by 45% to 33% (Caroline Pidgeon is third on 7%, followed by Peter Whittle on 5%). Once second preferences are reallocated Khan would win by 57% to 43%. (tabs)
  • ComRes in London have Khan ahead by a similar margin – he leads by 45% to 36% in the first round, with Caroline Pidgeon and Sian Berry both on 6%. Once second preferences are included Khan wins by 56% to 44%. (tabs)
  • YouGov in Wales have final figures of constituency: CON 21%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 16%; regional CON 20%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 16%. (tabs).
  • YouGov in Scotland have final figures of constituency CON 19%, LAB 22%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; regional CON 20%, LAB 19%, LD 6%, SNP 41%, GRN 9% (tabs).

UPDATE: And finally, YouGov’s final call London poll for the standard:

  • First round: KHAN 43%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 7%, PIDGEON 6%; Second round: KHAN 57%, GOLDSMITH 43% (tabs)

336 Responses to “Final polls…”

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  1. Blimey SNP will be forming

  2. Allan

    Mushrooms are not my thing although they are usually grown indoors often in cellars.

    Scottish results all in and result as forecast by the BBC earlier.

    Tories done worse in Wales than expected but I expect some of that is down to UKIP.

    As i said above, nothing for the Government to worry about at this stage and 2nd in Scotland very good news for them.

  3. A good result for Scotland.

    Kez will stay on as Labour leader, and, in the long term,that will help Labour to rebuild some sort of vision of what it wants to be.

    I always felt that Scotland was better governed by the previous SNP minority than by the SNP majority – it was better for the SNP to have to fight for everything, rather than have carte blanche.

    Good for the Greens – they will be trenchant in keeping the SNP’s environmental policies AND PRACTICE in the spotlight.

    Good (or at least better than expected) for the LDs – their next task is to regain the Borders.

    Delighted that UKIP has once again failed to make any impact north of the Border after the blip in the Euroelections.

    Finally, the Scottish Unionist Party (aka the Conservative Party) has done very well, and it is they, rather than the SNP, who concentrated everything into the constitutional issue. The battle lines are being drawn. Will Scottish Labour (and the LDs, for that matter) continue to be Unionist parties when that will now always mean being lapdogs to the Tories (especially when the Tories are returned to power in Westminster after the next GE)? I hope not. Eventually they will see that if they want their vision of Scotland to have any chance at all they will have to go for yet more devolution of economic ;powers, or, if that is denied them, they will have to join the Indy movement.

    IMO

    Have a good day, everyone!

  4. As I feared the Greens were hammered in Norwich, losing 4 of 5 council seats up for election, and lost their lone seat in Dudley.

    They do, however, hold the balance of power in Scotland between the SNP and the traditional Westminster parties.

    They retained ten seats in Solihul and we have a string of cities still to come, including Bristol, but no breakthrough in Wales.

    You Gov were off in their predictions for the Greens in Scotland, but got the order of the Conservatives and Labour right on the list vote.

    Oh yes, Patrick Harvie came second in Glasgow Kelvin with 24.3%.

  5. THE OTHER HOWARD

    Thanks for info on mushrooms. I do have a garden back home but it’s shared with 3 other properties on the development and the grass is taken care off by the factors who charge a fortune. The grass is of golf course calibre and me plating shrooms in it might upset some.

    Yes Wales was a bit of a surprise, thought the Tories would do better and they did well in Scotland. I think DC will be happy but ol Corby should be happy as well.

    Mix bags for everyone.

  6. ANDY SHADRACK

    “They do, however, hold the balance of power in Scotland between the SNP and the traditional Westminster parties”
    ________

    I guess we will all spin it the way we see it but I don’t see the Greens holding the balance of power..They may think they do but they don’t. The SNP are closer to the Tories on tax, business rates oil etc than they are to the Greens.

    On a host of other polices the SNP are closer to Labour than the Greens so I can’t see the greens having any impact at all over the SNP unless an indy vote 2 comes up!!

    The SNP are home and dry, counting the speaker )if he/she comes from another party) then that brings the SNP down to one short of a majority.

    I need get some work done but peeps are spinning the green impact like a

  7. cont

    like snot coming out a child’s nose.

  8. Blimey the SNP will be forming a minoritty government. Reading some of the blurb on here, I thought they were forecast to win every seat.

  9. VAL
    The only blurb I read on here was that Labour would hang onto second place in Scotland…

  10. Wow at the Scottish Tories, doubling their seats!

    There seemed to me to be some tactical voting between Con and LibDem voters in the constituency seats, which is how the LibDems took seats there off the SNP.

    It’s not quite the Tory revival to 1950’s levels, but it’s moving in the right direction. Conservatives who didn’t vote because they didn’t quite believe it was worth doing so, will turn out next time, so the only way is up.

    I think Lab in Scotland was the only party promising tax rises (though the SNP had jacked up stamp duty and refused to pass on the threshold increases that higher rate payers enjoy in England).

    I expect as devolution bites, people will put away their flags and start to focus on tax, tax, tax, which is always good for Conservatives. Cameron and Osborne clearly thought devolution would help them, which is why they were so keen on transferring tax powers. Looks like they were right.

  11. “Conservatives who didn’t vote because they didn’t quite believe it was worth doing so, will turn out next time, so the only way is up.”

    With respect, that’s speculative claptrap. You could just as easily say that anti-Tories who stayed at home because they’ve become complacent at Tory weakness north of the border will turn up and kick them back down next time around. And in case, it’s the day after an election. Bit early to make predictions for next time unless you’re a full-blown Mystic Meg.

  12. “The SNP are closer to the Tories on tax, business rates oil etc than they are to the Greens.”

    So there we have it. All the talk of the great Scottish party of the left.

    “The only blurb I read on here was that Labour would hang onto second place in Scotland…”

    Allan Christie, 6th May 2016

    “The polls may be overestimating the SNP but I think they will manage more than 63 seats alone on the constituency.. ”

    Allan Christie, 3rd May 2016

    Enough said, I feel.

  13. And a by-election, also held yesterday….

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-36219709

    ‘The widow of a Labour MP who died from cancer has won a by-election to replace him in the Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough constituency. Harry Harpham’s widow Gill Furniss received 14,087 votes, a majority of 9,590 and a 6% increase in Labour’s share of the vote. Mr Harpham had been elected in the 2015 General Election. Ms Furniss said her victory was an “emphatic message” for David Cameron about “unfair” spending cuts.’

    The full results were:
    Gill Furniss, Labour, 14,087
    Steven Winstone, UKIP, 4,497
    Shaffaq Mohammed, Liberal Democrat, 1,385
    Spencer Pitfield, Conservative, 1,267
    Christine Gilligan, Green, 938
    Stevie Manion, Yorkshire First, 349
    Bobby Smith, Give Me Back Elmo, 58

  14. A few Scotland points.

    With turnout at 55%, 5% up on last time I think Tories coming out in force and Labour voters staying at home is more of a factor than any Unionist vote.

    Equally I am more inclined to see Churn as a factor, with some previous Labour voters switching to the SNP post referendum but a lot of Tories who last time voted SNP to kick out Labour MSP’s returning to vote Tory.

    The superficial picture, Labour down Tory up, suggests a straight switch or a swing to the right, but I think it’s more complicated than that.

    Equally I don’t see any real sign of a LibDem revival as Fife is really a win for Willie Rennie is Leader, just like Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh. Even on bad nights Party Leaders rarely loose their seats.

    Happy to see no UKIP purple on the Map, apparently Coburn turned up at the Dingwall count in a plumbers van!!! Lots of tweets about him talking Ballcocks!

    The SNP will govern as a minority without support as before because they can only be defeated if Labour and Tory unite on an issue and with Davidson pushing low tax and Dugdale calling for higher tax, I can’t see much chance of an alliance any time soon.

    It will be interesting to see Anthony’s take on why YouGov failed to get the Tory vote right…….not enough Tory voters in the samples again????

    Peter.

  15. Ouch…Greens lost two council seats to Labour in Oxford.
    :-(

  16. Actually I am not sure the YouGov Tory share figure was that far out, just the way it panned out with constituencies makes it look bad.

    Labour and the Tories are only a few percentage points out but it makes nearly a 10 seat difference in a 129 seat Parliament.

    Peter.

  17. Has that happened here before, a widow or widower replacing their deceased spouse in Parliament? I believe it’s not uncommon in America.

  18. “Has that happened here before, a widow or widower replacing their deceased spouse in Parliament? ”

    I think there was one in Wales a few years ago.

  19. Frederic,

    “I believe it’s not uncommon in America.”

    Well that covers just about everything, from toddlers shooting their parents to megalomaniacs running for President!

    Peter.

  20. Peter – worth noting that we LDs won Edbrgh W though, which you can’t put down to Willie Rennie’s personal vote. I don’t think we’re on the cusp of a major revival, but in those specific localities the signs are pretty good for us.

    Scot Libs were campaigning on tax rises too (and if I recall rightly adopted the idea before Labour!).

  21. @Alec

    “The SNP are closer to the Tories on tax, business rates oil etc than they are to the Greens.”

    So there we have it. All the talk of the great Scottish party of the left.

    —————————————————————————————–

    In post-1992 Britain (after the collapse of the Soviet bloc), discussion of “left” and “right” boils down to who you are likely to get into bed with, i.e. the Lib Dems with the Tories on the “right”, and Labour, SNP and the Greens on the “left”. Also, these days, “right” indicates promoting a monetarist policy of austerity, etc, while “left” tends to indicate a more Keynesian/Obama style of giving priority to spending money to create jobs as opposed to austerity.

    On that basis, the Tories and the Lib Dems have shown by recent practice that they’re on the “right”, while Corbyn’s Labour, the SNP and the Greens are on the “left”.

  22. James,

    Edinburgh West; LibDems up 14%, Labour down 12%, everyone else static!
    That’s not a revival, it more tactical voting….and in one seat out of 73!

    Peter.

  23. TOH
    ‘Tories done worse in Wales than expected but I expect some of that is down to UKIP.’

    In Wales the UKIP surge has generally been at Labour’s expense – as in 2015.

  24. Interesting choice of Presiding Officer coming up for Scottish Parliament.

    SNP won’t want to lose another vote and don’t have the requirement for a friendly ruling on referendum competency that they had last time.

    Lib Dems and Greens have too small a delegation to want to lose an MSP.

    Conservatives have plenty of spare MSPs and apparently (current Deputy) John Scott fancies the role but do the SNP want to reward the conservative success?

    Labour are the only major party not to have had a turn yet, losing an MSP makes little difference but who would be sufficiently popular across the floor? Sarah Boyack seemed a contender but has fallen at the hurdle of being elected to Holyrood. Iain Gray has time served and gravitas but is probably too divisive. Current Deputy Elaine Smith has managed to sneak in on the list so I’d say she is probably the favourite.

  25. Results in Wales, after counting for all 60 seats:

    Labour – 29
    Plaid Cymru – 12
    Tories – 11
    UKIP – 7
    Lib Dems – 1

    So, not a lot of change there…Labour remains the biggest party in Wales by a country mile. The only story is UKIP winning seven seats to take fourth place.

    What does this mean in terms of forming a regional government? Will Labour operate as a minority government, or will they go into coalition with Plaid Cymru?

  26. Amusingly I woke up this morning and saw the pundits were shocked, shocked to see that Labour done terrible in Scotland and my first thought was ‘they must not have done as bad as hoped for in England’

    Lo and behold…

    Seems I made the only correct prediction last night ;-)

  27. Another by-election result:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-36219570

    “Labour’s Christopher Elmore has become the new MP for Ogmore after winning the Parliamentary by-election with 52% of the vote. The poll was held as former Labour MP Huw Irranca-Davies stood down to run for – and win – the Welsh Assembly election in the same area, part of Bridgend county borough. In the 2015 General Election, Labour won the seat with 52% of the vote and the Conservatives came second with 15%. UKIP came second this time around.”

    So, Labour hold on to this by-election with the same share of the vote, while UKIP replace the Tories in second….

  28. Alun009

    “With respect, that’s speculative claptrap.”

    I don’t see any respect in that comment. It’s Candy’s view, if you disagree say so but politely. We have always tried to be good mannered on this site.

  29. Earlier, I cited the voters of Colne Valley ward in Kirklees being cussed in re-electing Lib Dem Cllr Ridgeway no matter what.

    Well, he has just been beaten. Labour have a councillor in Colne Valley. That was my local ward (as Colne Valley West) when I grew up. The only time Labour had even come close to taking it was during Poll Tax year.

    That is absolutely dire for the Lib Dems as this was the area that voted for Richard Wainwright back in the old days when the Liberals were a rump party.

  30. Donald Trump has told Fox News that he favours Brexit!

    Wonder how that will go down with the Public.
    UKIP seem to like him and some Tories, but Cameron doesn’t.
    I wonder if he would be offering the UK a fast track trade deal.

    Does he really believe it or is it designed to attack Clinton, or even a kick ar Cameron for refusing to apologies for saying he was stupid and wrong!

    Peter.

  31. I have to say that Corbyn really needs to look for his own Alistair Campbell. The media narrative here from Labour is dreadful – worse than awful.

    I’m not quite sure where we are with the council seat count, but the BBC are showing Labour with a net loss of 26, and the Guardian live feed has this shrinking to now just -6. Scotland has been bad, but the SNP has very nearly been decimated in seat terms, while losing vote share on 2015 GE.

    Wales has been reasonably good for Labour, in seats at least, and the London mayoral count seems to be going well. Two by elections held with swings from Con to Lab, while Liverpool mayor held also.

    But the TV screens are filled with Cameron lauding Tory gains in Peterborough (2 seats, largely the result of boundary changes) saying that despite winning half the number of seats on the night in England that it’s Labour that are out of touch.

    The Lib Dems are out there saying they are recovering slowly, the SNP hail losing their majority as a historic victory, and PC are full of winning a seat in the valleys.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn manages a soundbite, saying ‘we hung on’.

    Really, all those Corbyn fans out there need to start thinking seriously about whether or not they actually want power. The party management is utterly execrable, and if they are serious about wanting to try and help the disadvantaged, they need to get serious about politics.

  32. ALEC
    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    The polls may be overestimating the SNP but I think they will manage more than 63 seats alone on the constituency.. ”
    Allan Christie, 3rd May 2016

    Enough said, I feel
    _________

    Bet that made your day lol. The SNP won 59 seats on the constituency ,I was 4 off but why take issue with me? Take it up with the pollsters. They are the ones who spend millions of pounds telling us the SNP are going to win X amount of seats, Tories this and Labour that…I like most other people don’t work for the media or pollsters so I can only base my numbers on what they were telling us.

    But I was correct on saying that the polls may be over estimating the SNP ..thanks for highlighting that.

    I suspect you are personally hacked off because the SNP probably did better than you hoped for, The Tories did much better than expected and the Greens never hit 8 like the polls were suggesting and Labour were booted into 3rd place.

    I also suspect you are hacked off because the SNP are still in a very strong position in Scotland and won’t really come up against a time where all the other parties will vote against them because all the other parties are so divided over tax etc .

    I also suspect you are hacked off because there is still a majority of MSP’s in favour of independence 69 in total.

    Mr Doom & Gloom :-)

  33. Alec
    “but the SNP has very nearly been decimated in seat terms”

    Really?

  34. “Scotland has been bad, but the SNP has very nearly been decimated in seat terms, while losing vote share on 2015 GE”
    ______

    Och aye the noo they only just piled on an extra 5 constituency seats and 1.2% vote share but lost oot on the list and lost 2% vote share.

    Terrible results after being in power for 9 years..

    Oh aye see you Jimmy Agrr get me ma haggis noo son

  35. PETE B

    I don’t if king of Spin Alec was quoting someone else or not but he is a bit an ol drama queen when it comes to SNP frothing lol

    How did your neck of the woods go? Mine stayed blue.

  36. Most solid Labour council in England. Personally I came 3rd, a bit disappointing, though I did no campaigning at all.

  37. @AC – “I suspect you are personally hacked off ……”

    Not at all. I was merely observing that you were re writing UKPR history, and thought that this ought to be corrected, for the sake of balance.

    One feature of your postings over the years is a certain reluctance to admit error, and take personal issue with those who point this out.

    @Pete B

    “Alec
    “but the SNP has very nearly been decimated in seat terms”

    Really?”

    Technically, yes. They lost 6 seats of 69, which is a loss of 8.69%. Had they lost a seventh seat this would have been 10.14%, so in a strictly technical sense, and using the true meaning of the word, yes they were very close to being decimated.

    However, in modern usage this is not how ‘decimated’ is now generally understood, and I am not being entirely serious in promoting this description of their performance.

  38. Actually, apologies to Alec. If you take the pedantic meaning of ‘decimate’ which is to take away one tenth, then to lose 6 seats out of 69 is to “nearly decimate in seat terms”, which is what he said.

    Mind you, the common meaning is to destroy a large part, and that didn’t happen.

  39. PETE B

    Better luck next time…

    ALEC..

    @AC – “I suspect you are personally hacked off ……”
    ……
    Not at all. I was merely observing that you were re writing UKPR history, and thought that this ought to be corrected, for the sake of balance.
    One feature of your postings over the years is a certain reluctance to admit error, and take personal issue with those who point this out”
    _______

    That’s rubbish, I’m one of the very few posters who often compromises or admits when I’m wrong. You’re being extremely pedantic over my prediction (based on what the polls were saying) and I wasn’t that far off anyway and did say the polls were probably over estimating the SNP.

    I don’t take personal issue with people unless they go down that route with me and I’m not suggesting you’re doing but you can be very pedantic.

    Anyway I will leave you to do your spinning on the SNP…Which I think most people will agree they just pulled off another fantastic victory.
    I think the more people say the SNP had a bad result tells me they were upset by the result…..food for thought!!

    Must dash…Hugs and kisses xxx

  40. Pedantic? It’s the true meaning of decimation!

    Although it also requires the drawing of lots and the slaughter of comrades by comrades. Couldn’t possibly say which party best fits that currently, but it’s probably not the SNP…

  41. @AC – seem to have touched a nerve there!

    I agree – the SNP has done very well, if a little below expectations.

    My point was actually about Labour’s appalling spin operation.

  42. Well my prediction, which I can hardly remember to be honest, was SNP 70 something so I am happy to admit it was rubbish!

    Like I said when I started this….Ritual Humaliation!

    Peter.

  43. If Labour are having any polling done on who is supporting them with Corbyn as leader, that would be interesting. It could well be the case that Corbyn is popular with those on the left, but to win a general election you need middle ground swing voters. I really cannot see Labour achieving more than say 8 million votes at a general election across the UK. To win a general election, they would need another 4 million votes.

  44. @Peter Cairns (SNP)

    “Does he really believe it or is it designed to attack Clinton, or even a kick ar Cameron for refusing to apologies for saying he was stupid and wrong!”

    The latter I think. I suspect the only impact it will have is that the ‘Trump isn’t as bad as the horrible leftists claim’ opinion pieces will be published in the Times sooner than expected.

    Indeed, I imagine Roger Boyes is already writing the sequel to his ‘Brexiters should unite with the French fascists’ piece as we speak.

    @Alec

    That Corbyn needs a better media game goes without saying. However I do have some sympathy for him, as he’s somewhat caught between the devil and the deep blue sea on the issue.

    The Labour media machine is still very much controlled by the Cult of Blair and it’s a problem that every subsequent Labour leader has had to deal with (both Brown and Milliband suffered from both subtle and overt internal attacks due to this; it’s got more deranged under Corbyn but the problem was always there). Clearly he needs to get his own media team in place across the Labour operations, as they can’t keep having stories like this running until 2020.

    On the other hand he also can’t do that without having to put up with stories shrieking about a Stalinist clamp-down, and how we’re only days away from bodies floating up in rivers, appearing for months and possibly years on end.

    We’ll see though. The present murmuring doing the rounds is that the post-EU referendum settlement will be Milne goes and Corbyn is allowed to hand over the leadership to McDonnell, which would be amenable to the majority of the factions in the party.

  45. ‘Avoiding disaster has been seen as a sign of success for Labour’.

    I think that just about sums up where Labour are at the moment.

  46. In general it’s worth noting that, in the battle for 2020 in England, these results appear to indicate that none of the parties are all that popular. So it seems that, as I’ve said before, victory will go to the team that can get its defence sorted out first and keep it that way.

  47. I wonder if the definitive event of the past five years was Mrs T passing away in 2013. Once she had her funeral rites and was buried, people stopped talking about her. And since then we’ve had the Conservatives going from a minority in 2010 to a majority in the 2015 general election, and now this Scottish Tory revival.

    Was the whole anti-Tory thing dependent on her? Discuss.

  48. If Labour had a decent united political front they could easily spin this a quite a success. Sure Scotland is a disaster, but Easy victories in London and HOLDS in the South of England are very promising. Wales isn’t ideal but they still remain by far the largest party.

    Torys I would say are the opposite, Good is Scotland but disappointing elsewhere.

    SNP will be annoyed they didn’t secure a majority and looks as if while labour is crumbling Tories and LDs to a lesser extent are offering resistance in their strongholds.

    UKIP have done well in Wales but really badly elsewhere, not really made any inroads in England and are non existent in Scotland.

    Greens appear to have done well it Scotland but poorly in England.

    The LDs have had a decent night and it would’ve have been almost good if it wasnt for Wales, Cardiff Central, Montgomeryshire and Ceradigion let them down badly.

    No one has had a uniformly ‘good’ or bad night

  49. Pretty shocking that 6 years into government, making austerity cuts and this fiasco with junior doctors,
    the Conservatives are still picking up local councillors, and surging in Scotland.

  50. Thats because sure Corbyn may have some interesting policies, but his politics are hopeless and borderline incompetent.

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