Final polls…

TNS and ComRes have released final London polls yesterday, YouGov have released final Scottish and Welsh polls. Here’s a quick run down…

  • TNS in London have Sadiq Khan ahead of Zac Goldsmith in the first round by 45% to 33% (Caroline Pidgeon is third on 7%, followed by Peter Whittle on 5%). Once second preferences are reallocated Khan would win by 57% to 43%. (tabs)
  • ComRes in London have Khan ahead by a similar margin – he leads by 45% to 36% in the first round, with Caroline Pidgeon and Sian Berry both on 6%. Once second preferences are included Khan wins by 56% to 44%. (tabs)
  • YouGov in Wales have final figures of constituency: CON 21%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 16%; regional CON 20%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 16%. (tabs).
  • YouGov in Scotland have final figures of constituency CON 19%, LAB 22%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; regional CON 20%, LAB 19%, LD 6%, SNP 41%, GRN 9% (tabs).

UPDATE: And finally, YouGov’s final call London poll for the standard:

  • First round: KHAN 43%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 7%, PIDGEON 6%; Second round: KHAN 57%, GOLDSMITH 43% (tabs)

336 Responses to “Final polls…”

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  1. First. I guess everyone else is queuing at polling stations.

  2. Dumb site

  3. In the spin-laden world of expectation management it’s always difficult to determine what will constitute either an “acceptable” or disappointing result in today’s plethora of elections for whichever party is being put under the microscope. Those twin imposters of triumph and disaster remain elusive. I suspect the various party spin doctors have already written the scripts for their chosen talking heads to parrot in TV studios around the country as soon as the results are known. What’s parroted will vary from region to region, and will obviously depend on the nature of the result, but I can almost hear most of what’s likely to be said by each party spokesman now. We could almost fast forward to midnight tonight now and rehearse the scripts. “London is a Labour city and doesn’t represent the national picture where we actually performed creditably for a governing party in mid term. The story of tonight is Labour’s disastrous showing in Wales/Scotland/England/Bristol* – delete and add as appropriate”. This script will probably already be in the hands of most tabloid newspaper editors too. You get my drift.

    For what it’s worth, and from a purely Labour perspective, I think the bar for Corbyn is a fairly low one. Labour needs to hang on to 2nd place in Scotland, win the mayoral races in Bristol and London, be the largest party in Wales and win the vote share by at least 10% over the Tories and, in England, I think they need to head the Tories on projected national vote share, even if this means the loss of quite a few councils and councillors. If Corbyn can tick those boxes, he lives to fight again. He’ll be roundly damned but that will be just spin and hot air.

    @Petra Georgeopolous

    “Dumb site”

    Not another pseudonym for Roland Haines reappearing here, is it? Does the Sapper and Chouenlai ride again, I wonder?

    :-)

  4. CARFREW (fpt)

    Good luck to any of you who are doing the voting thing too!!

    Presumably practically everyone in the UK will be in a position to do the voting thing. The only problem is that for many people the only electoral contest locally is for the widely loathed Police Commissioners, which seem to have got even less publicity and been greeted with even less enthusiasm than at their disastrous roll-out.

    The only electoral event that has got even less coverage is the:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Brightside_and_Hillsborough_by-election,_2016

    Normally a parliamentary by-election will get loads of attention, even when there are other elections on the same day. But this has had a positive news blackout. Even Mr N hasn’t mentioned it. I suppose if something can’t be marketed as a ‘test for Corbyn’ (that he might lose) the media aren’t interested.

  5. CROSSBAT

    “For what it’s worth, and from a purely Labour perspective, I think the bar for Corbyn is a fairly low one. Labour needs to hang on to 2nd place in Scotland, win the mayoral races in Bristol and London, be the largest party in Wales and win the vote share by at least 10% over the Tories and, in England, I think they need to head the Tories on projected national vote share, even if this means the loss of quite a few councils and councillors. If Corbyn can tick those boxes, he lives to fight again. He’ll be roundly damned but that will be just spin and hot air”
    ________

    I think this is a very reasonable fair assessment on Labour and I commend your comment to the house. ;-)

  6. On these figure Cutbot gives;

    SNP: 66, Lab: 24, Tory: 22, Green: 9, LibDem: 6, UKIP: 1

    Just an SNP Majority but the Greens benefitting and the SNP suffering from 10% of SNP constituency voters voting Green on the list!

    Off out for a check on my three stations then running my son to school for his Nat5 English exam!

    To be honest I am M ore worried about the exam than the election!!!

    Peter.

  7. The polling in Barnet is turning into a Mel Brooks movie.

    Definitely funnier than Spaceballs.

  8. Peter

    It seems hardly worth staying up to see/hear the results come in on the constituency vote. Nothing much of note is likely to happen, as far as I can see. Regional vote will be much more interesting, but few of those results will be in before 6 a.m., I guess.

    Although I voted ‘Yes’ in September ’14, I am not happy with the idea of majority one party government going on for too long in a country this size. So I shall certainly be voting Green in the Regional list. Not sure yet what to do about the consituency vote. A warning shot is needed across the bows, I think….. or at least some nod of appreciation to those battling for second (or even fourth!) place.

    I hope all goes well with the Nat5

  9. CROSBAT

    “@Petra Georgeopolous
    “Dumb site”

    “Not another pseudonym for Roland Haines reappearing here, is it? Does the Sapper and Chouenlai ride again, I wonder?”
    _______

    I had a quick Google and found this correspondence from 2011..

    “CHOUENLAI
    @martyn
    As for good old-fashioned manual sockpuppetry? Well, I assume there’s at least one person posting here under more than one identity simultaneously, but I also assume that generally speaking people just stick to one ID.
    I don’t know who you have in mind Martyn. I have been Roland Haines, Sapper and Chouenlai over the last couple of years. But, never at the same time. I am riddled with guilt as a poster, but not that guilt”

    “CROSSBAT11
    @Chouenlai
    Well, well, well, old Rollers comes clean and drops his many masks. Lord Roland Sapper of Chouenlai, despite many denials in the past, is one and the same person.
    Actually, I’m relieved, because the thought of four different people talking such drivel rather worried me. I’m glad the piffle only has one source! lol”

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0X0tLKLkaokJ:ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4038+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
    _________

    It appears the both of you have crossed swords before lol

    In fact later tonight when I’m waiting for the results to come in (Scotland and Wales) I think I might trawl through some of UKPR’s archives and see what other treats are lurking..

  10. Roer Mexico: “for many people the only electoral contest locally is for the widely loathed Police Commissioners,”

    Yes indeed, that includes me. As the poiling station (predictive text wanted to call it an oiling stain!) is a couple of minutes’ walk away, I’ll go and cast my vote.

    It’s actually quite an interesting system, with first and second preferences. So I can vote for my preferred minority party candidate, who presumably will be eliminated on the first round, then for the leading independent who appears to be in a two-horse race with a Tory.

    I always liked AV as a voting system. Such a shame it fell victim to the vagaries of the referendum process.

  11. My pointless polling station anecdote from South Croydon.

    Arrived at about 8.45 am. Fairly busy. One of the voters had a “Support the Junior Doctors” badge so may not necessarily be good news for Zac Goldsmith.

    I will now resist the temptation to see the funny side (sorry AW) and ask what impact the Barnet problems might have on the London elections (would some sort of re-run be on the cards?)

  12. Peter Cairns (SNP)

    Well my other big headache today was whether the car is repairable or not – turns out it isn’t! So with that question now answered, time to see whether Ruth can do the job and take second place…. First genuinely exciting Scottish election from a Scots Tory point of view in a good while.

    Hope you enjoy yourself tonight Peter, but like you said I think you can relax about the overall result, its just ”by how much” that is the issue for your team. From my perspective, however, one seat here or there will make all the difference to my overall enjoyment of the evening…!

  13. RAF fpp

    “Outside Bromley South station (main Bromley commuter station into London) there were a few people with a big blue Zac Goldsmith stand. A few metres away there was a person handing out Zac flyers. I observed the scene for about 5 minutes before entering the station. No flyers were collected, and no-one took any notice of the stand”

    HAWTHORN
    “My pointless polling station anecdote from South Croydon.
    Arrived at about 8.45 am. Fairly busy. One of the voters had a “Support the Junior Doctors” badge so may not necessarily be good news for Zac Goldsmith”
    ________

    Outside Waterloo station around 9.15am this morning opposite the Black & Blue myself and a few other commuters nearly got run over by someone riding a Boris bike kitted out with boards saying “Sian Berry Green Party for London Mayor” …We were not a happy bunch.

    My pointless polling station anecdote from Waterloo station is that it’s not looking good for the Greens. ;-)

  14. Morning all from Edinburgh Central.

    Hope it’s ok to post this here, as yet there are no constituency / region pages for Scottish Parliament elections.

    The main intrigue here is the new balance of power in the constituency vote.

    The incumbent SNP constituency MSP, Marco Biagi, a kent face despite his short tenure, is retiring in favour of a relative unknown. Our previous well-liked Labour representative Sarah Boyack is standing (having got in on the list in the last Parliament). The Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who needs no introduction, is also standing. Add to that one of the Greens’ first ever constituency candidates, Lothians incumbent Alison Johnstone. (I have no idea of the possible strength of the Greens’ constituency vote; this comes down to what people consider in voting when they get two votes, which is perhaps still relatively unknown in Scotland).

    So, potential four-way marginal, perhaps! It’ll be interesting to see how it comes out. My prediction is that the SNP’s popularity will win out and they will get a plurality, though possibly not by much. It’s just about possible that the Greens will split the SNP vote and allow Labour through, due to the Lab candidate’s personal vote (and possibly at the margins some anti-Indy switching from Tory or Lib Dem to Labour, though in my opinion this much-speculated-upon phenomenon has yet to be sighted in the wild).

  15. For the first time, no other party had a polling agent at my polling place.

    It would have been quite lonely, had it not been for the steady trickle of voters to chat to.

    The final results will be a test, not only of pollster accuracy, but also of the seat projection sites.

  16. I shall be voting for Marvin Rees labour for Bristol mayor. The independent incumbent seems to think Bristol is sooo cool and bohemian that he can wear red trousers all the time, haha, what a wag.

    It’s embarrassing.

    A banner was left an a roundabout near my home proclaiming, obey red trousers. Lols.

  17. Maxim Parr-Reid

    ‘Voted for the first time this morning.’

    Vote early, vote often, eh?

  18. Anthony

    What do you mean by Almost final polls? Are we going to see a post-voting pseudo-exit poll[1] for Scotland[2] as we did in 2011?:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8t2kd33dkt/Times_FinalCall_Scotland_160504_Day1_W.pdf

    And are there any similar polls planned for London and indeed other places?

    [1] It’s not stated in the tables but I would imagine that the actual questions have been worded so as to ask people who have voted by post how they have rather than will vote? This was a BPC recommendation, but I think YouGov used to do it anyway. A separate analysis of postal voting would be interesting if only because such nonsense gets talked about it (obviously nothing could be legally published till polls close).

    [2] And presumably for Wales as well though I suspect YouGov may be doing some academic work on Wales as well.

  19. Don’t mind being 20 mins late in the morning but I’m hoping the Choo-Choo’s are back to normal this evening. Anyone got a bed for the night who lives near the Trafalgar square end of Strand?

    I wonder if this will have implications on the Mayor vote?

  20. @ Roger M

    “The only problem is that for many people the only electoral contest locally is for the widely loathed Police Commissioners, which seem to have got even less publicity and been greeted with even less enthusiasm than at their disastrous roll-out.”

    ————–

    The only publicity I’ve experienced is someone handing me a flyer about it at one of the coffee shops round the corner. A most unwelcome intrusion into my Macchiato. And yes, didn’t know ote about the Sheffield thing… (Nameless is otherwise engaged it seems, hobnobbing with ex Deputy PMs these days…)

  21. Allan Christie:
    “Don’t mind being 20 mins late in the morning but I’m hoping the Choo-Choo’s are back to normal this evening.”

    When I read that it occurred to me that This Week could well have been bumped for the elections but was momentarily confused at the idea of Choo Choos in the plural, only one of him surely? Please tell me I haven’t lost touch with reality…

  22. If the polls are right and Khan wins comfortably in London today, then I wonder what sort of post-mortem the Tories will conduct? They’ll no doubt try to shrug it off as London defaulting to its natural status as a Labour city, but I don’t entirely buy that analysis. Never did really. As Johnson proved, on low turnouts admittedly, London isn’t some politically monochrome metropolis always destined to vote red and it’s very winnable for the Tories, especially if Labour is suffering nationally. I would think this defeat, if it occurs, will hurt them badly, especially as they’ll lose control of the capital for the first time in almost a decade. It’ll be a high profile defeat too, by far the most prominent of the night, whereas other reverses, like council losses, are soon buried under other news. London matters too and a Labour Mayor does the party no harm at all, likely to be a constant thorn in both Cameron and Osborne’s side. I rate Khan quite highly too and suspect he’ll become quite a powerful political figure, maybe a potential Labour leader one day. He’ll go to leadership school in London for four years and, if he fares well, who knows after that?

    Goldsmith appears to have been a very poor choice as Tory candidate. Lacklustre and dull, he appears to lack the personality to lead his own campaign, more often than not appearing an onlooker rather than a participant, a plaything of his rather misguided campaign organisers.

    I just wonder how the Tories may have fared with a better candidate.? David Davis perhaps. He might have run Khan closer.

  23. One major ‘long term’ benefit to a Khan win is that the Mayor of London is a campaign ‘asset’ in every election during his term. Because he’s a well known public figure of authority. Even if he’s a bad mayor, he still gives a publicity boost and cognitive authority bias to his party just by being the mayor. (See also, Mayor of NYC.)

  24. @Crossbat11

    My fervent hope (probably unrealistic) for politics in general should the polls be right and Khan win is for an end to the fashion for hateful, dog-whistle campaigning that has done Goldsmith no favours whatsoever. I get the distinct impression that the reason Goldsmith himself has looked so lacklustre throughout is that he is simply embarrassed by the volume of ridiculous nonsense that has been put out under his name.

  25. High winds therefore ferry cancelled and stuck on a piece of rock in the Inner Hebrides, unable to cast my vote back in Edinburgh West. That’s one less vote for the Greens on the list so perhaps they’ll be stuck on just 9% after all.

    Pointless anecdote from the polling station here – one person came in, voted and went away again. Strangely enough, there are no party members in sight which is inconceivable given that there must be at least 120 voters on the island. Perhaps this island isn’t the weathervane I thought it was…..

  26. Assuming, and I think most do, that the Polls are right, is it worth an early punt on Khan replacing Corbyn for the 2020 General election.

    If he is a success in London it could be the platform he would need and Labour might want. It would even open up the possibility of a contest between two ex Mayors!

    Peter.

  27. I don’t think today’s elections matter greatly to the Tories. Nobody expects the Tories to be a dominant party in Scotland or Wales anyway and any small gains they make there compared to recent elections is already a plus. London on the other hand is increasingly discounted as a Labour stronghold (Boris was the exception, not the norm). As far as the Conservative Party’s future is concerned, I would focus instead on the EU referendum, which will have a much bigger impact on the party’s prospects in the next GE and beyond.

  28. Have discovered just before I vote that there is a site called http://www.choosemypcc.org.uk which at least provides a statement from each candidate and a photograph. Not surprisingly, all of ours for West Mercia seem to be in favour of law and order, but at least the site is better than nothing. Apologies if everyone else has known about this for months.

  29. Assuming the polls are correct, (and we finally avoid calling this site UKTeaLeafReading) then Cameron is going to have to do a pretty quick reverse-ferret from his current position on Khan.

    The irony is that anyone who believes the stuff on Khan are going to be wondering why Cameron works with him (and work with him he will have to).

  30. Seen a reverse-squirrel a few times, but didn’t know about the reverse ferret…

  31. Note to canvassers and GOTVers for all political parties:

    Haranguing a voter who is trying to express concern about a local issue and not even letting her finish making her point before you start telling her that she’s wrong and clearly doesn’t care about the city is NOT the way to secure swing votes. If someone can’t even be bothered to listen for 30s on the doorstep in a marginal ward on election day…

  32. @Carfew/Hawthorn

    “Seen a reverse-squirrel a few times, but didn’t know about the reverse ferret…”

    Wouldn’t a reverse squirrel have some problems with that big bushy tail it’s got? Could imagine some real visibility problems there whereas a reverse ferret could prove to be quite a useful little fellow, especially down rabbit and fox holes.

  33. U-turns of that kind would hardly be new.

    In London, I think the Assembly vote may go badly for the Tories as well, due to the association with Zac’s less than excellent campaign, and due to Labour looking like the only alternative to the Tories in the individual constituency seat votes.

  34. @ Crossbat

    “Wouldn’t a reverse squirrel have some problems with that big bushy tail it’s got? Could imagine some real visibility problems there whereas a reverse ferret could prove to be quite a useful little fellow, especially down rabbit and fox holes.”

    —————–

    Precisely. A reverse squirrel is a sign someone has gotten themselves into a hole. A squirrel is an attempt to distract, thus a reverse squirrel is an attempt to backtrack from that if rumbled, possibly by trying desperately to excuse it, or else perhaps deploying another squirrel.

    Occasionally one sees a triple squirrel with salchow, but this is very difficult to execute. Am very familiar with them on account of being a frequent victim of attempts to reverse a squirrel. Dunno what’s the scoop with the ferret thing though…

  35. I’ve pinched this from another site (PB.com), but I thought it merited a mention here –

    ‘So what happens if we all wake up tomorrow with Mayor Galloway who received 17m votes from Tower Hamlets?’

    :)

  36. @ Crossbat

    “Wouldn’t a reverse squirrel have some problems with that big bushy tail it’s got? Could imagine some real visibility problems there whereas a reverse ferret could prove to be quite a useful little fellow, especially down rabbit and fox holes.”

    —————–

    Precisely. A reverse squirrel is a sign someone has gotten themselves into a hole. Dunno what’s the scoop with the ferret thing though…

  37. Europe generally is swinging to the far right so it could be a bad night for Cameron

  38. Just got back from voting for the Police and Crime commissioners. If it got any quieter I’d expect tumbleweed to be blowing around at the polling station. There’s been absolutely no sign of any local campaign here in Thames Valley. Not a leaflet to be seen.

    If Labour do lose seats in any notable quantity in the local elections, then I reckon it’ll be UKIP picking up more of the slack than anyone else.

  39. Headline in the Times…

    “Health chiefs out of touch with crisis in general practice.”

    “The government has been accused of ignoring the ever-worsening” situation. While patient consultations have soared by 15% in the past five years, the GP workforce has increased by only 4.75%.”

    “Very little data has been collected on family doctor services in the past decade, making the pressures faced by GPs ‘largely invisible’ to health officials, an investigation by the Kings Fund Think Tank found.”

    “‘The nature of work undertaken by GPs is becoming more complex,… They are now involved in follow-ups, new treatments and medications, things that would previously have been done in hospitals.'”

    Which indicates again the importance of good systems, and that “producer interest” isn’t the half of it…

  40. So final London You Gov/Standard figure with 2012 in round brackets and actual 2012 in square brackets show some interesting changes from 2012:

    Data below suggests UKIP appears to be growing in support in the mayors race by drawing from Conservatives, and in the constituency and list assembly races by drawing from both Conservative and Labour.

    No growth for either LD or Green in the constituency race or possibly the list Assembly race. Note Green support was considerably underestimated in 2012 and LD slightly overestimated.

    Mayor:

    Labour 43 (40) [41]
    Conservative 32 (45) [44]
    Green 7 (2) [4.5]
    UKIP 7 (3) [2]
    LD 6 (7) [4.2]
    Other 5 (3) [4.3]

    Constituency*

    Labour 44 [42.3]
    Conservative 30 [32.7]
    UKIP 11 [4.3]
    Green 7 [8.5]
    LD 7 [8.8]
    Other 1 [3.4]

    *You Gov/Standard did not do a constituency question in 2012

    List

    Labour 39 (44) [41.1]
    Conservative 29 (33) [32]
    UKIP 11 (5) [4.5]
    Green 9 (3) [8.5]
    LD 8 (9) [6.8]
    Other 4 (2) [7.1]

    So it will be interesting to see how accurate You Gov is in 2016 as compared to their last poll in 2012.

  41. It looks like a good result for Labour in London with Khan appearing to head for a comfortable win. Scotland does look like being painful but the SNP wont have it this easy forever.
    The Bristol mayoral contest looks interesting. Labour really should be looking to win but Rees comes across as a bit dull.

  42. @ Crossbat11 and Carfew

    ‘Wouldn’t a reverse squirrel have some problems with that big bushy tail it’s got?’

    Not really.. the bushy tail is just fluffed up long hairs. There is very little solid flesh no matter how big and bushy it looks. Wonder why that reminds me of so many politicians…

  43. @Bert
    “Presuming Labour do badly in Scotland, and the English locals, how will they shrug that off? ”

    On recent form, they’ll probably blame a Zionist conspiracy.

  44. @Syzygy

    “Not really.. the bushy tail is just fluffed up long hairs. There is very little solid flesh no matter how big and bushy it looks. Wonder why that reminds me of so many politicians…”

    You’re not referring to the soon to be former Mayor of London are you by any chance?

    :-)

  45. @Syzygy

    “Wonder why that reminds me of so many politicians…”

    ———-

    Becoz squirrels abound…

  46. POPEYE
    Allan Christie:
    “Don’t mind being 20 mins late in the morning but I’m hoping the Choo-Choo’s are back to normal this evening.”
    ………..
    “When I read that it occurred to me that This Week could well have been bumped for the elections but was momentarily confused at the idea of Choo Choos in the plural, only one of him surely? Please tell me I haven’t lost touch with reality”
    _______

    LOL, no just the one #sadmanonatrain Michael choo-choo Portillo.

  47. PETE B
    @Bert
    “Presuming Labour do badly in Scotland, and the English locals, how will they shrug that off? ”
    ..
    “On recent form, they’ll probably blame a Zionist conspiracy”
    ________

    LOL……..either that or the Illuminati :-)

  48. If Zac loses, will the anti-Semites of Barnet Council get the blame?

    Thank goodness this campaign is over.

  49. Crossbat

    If the polls are right and Khan wins comfortably in London today, then I wonder what sort of post-mortem the Tories will conduct? They’ll no doubt try to shrug it off as London defaulting to its natural status as a Labour city, but I don’t entirely buy that analysis. Never did really. As Johnson proved, on low turnouts admittedly, London isn’t some politically monochrome metropolis always destined to vote red

    I think the Tories were well aware that Boris was a one-off. ComRes actually asked a Johnson v Khan question and that showed Boris leading 41% to 39% if he was standing again. Of course after a campaign it might be different, but name recognition seems to help him a lot. London actually is a pretty Red city (even in 2012 Labour did very well in the Assembly) and Boris could only win with slavish media support and a general feeling that the job wasn’t too important and so could be entrusted to him.

    I actually think that the whole extremist thing against Khan was carried out as a trial to see what sort of effect it would have[1], rather than in the expectation that it would actually win. We won’t know the result till tomorrow, but if it does seem to have shifted votes in Outer London areas such as Bexley, they might decide to try such things again in more fertile areas. ComRes asked about various characteristics of Goldsmith and Khan in April and in the latest poll and they managed to get an increase for Khan for ‘Extreme’ and ‘Dangerous’ of 6 points each in that period. Mind you Goldsmith got 3 and 6 so it’s not a risk-free tactic.

    [1] I actually think we would have seen a lot more of anti-Muslim dog-whistling in 2015, if they hadn’t decide to use the SNP/Scots as a bogeyman instead (with help from Scottish Labour of course)

  50. Not very scientific but the Scottish Sun have a poll on twitter asking how people voted in Scotland…

    .The Scottish Sun [email protected] 2h2 hours ago Glasgow, Scotland
    The polling stations are open! How did you vote in today’s election? #Holyrood2016

    58%SNP
    14%Labour
    19%Conservative
    9%Lib Dem/Green/UKIP/Other
    158 votes

    Very interesting, another poll showing the Tories ahead of SLAB.

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