Final polls…

TNS and ComRes have released final London polls yesterday, YouGov have released final Scottish and Welsh polls. Here’s a quick run down…

  • TNS in London have Sadiq Khan ahead of Zac Goldsmith in the first round by 45% to 33% (Caroline Pidgeon is third on 7%, followed by Peter Whittle on 5%). Once second preferences are reallocated Khan would win by 57% to 43%. (tabs)
  • ComRes in London have Khan ahead by a similar margin – he leads by 45% to 36% in the first round, with Caroline Pidgeon and Sian Berry both on 6%. Once second preferences are included Khan wins by 56% to 44%. (tabs)
  • YouGov in Wales have final figures of constituency: CON 21%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 16%; regional CON 20%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 16%. (tabs).
  • YouGov in Scotland have final figures of constituency CON 19%, LAB 22%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; regional CON 20%, LAB 19%, LD 6%, SNP 41%, GRN 9% (tabs).

UPDATE: And finally, YouGov’s final call London poll for the standard:

  • First round: KHAN 43%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 7%, PIDGEON 6%; Second round: KHAN 57%, GOLDSMITH 43% (tabs)

336 Responses to “Final polls…”

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  1. A real mixed picture last night. Labour did abysmally in Scotland but in England and Wales pretty well. The two by Election results were both solid for Labour with the Tories doing very badly in Sheffield. They will win the mayoral race in London.
    The Tories did well in Scotland and won’t feel it was too bad elsewhere although the Sheffield by Election was dire.
    The Lib Dems made slight improvements. UKIP did OK in England and well in Wales.
    A night of triumph for the SNP who were the real winners of the night

  2. Nice timing of the academy U-turn. I’m beginning to suspect with all these U-turns that the government is actively making outlandish proposals it doesn’t agree with in the hope that they will be overturned, so that the opposition overlooks policies it would otherwise oppose…

  3. If you ignore Scotland, Corbyn’s Labour continues to win when people actually vote despite the “narrative” that keeps saying he/it won’t.

  4. Strange combination of various election results….every party pretty happy? 7 parties all getting satisfied didn’t seem likely, but it looks the case to me.

  5. Apart from Khan, what on earth have Labour got to be happy about? The worst Scottish election result for over a CENTURY, and the first time an opposition party has lost council seats after a general election for over THIRTY years?

    Let me put this into perspective. Labour under Michael Foot gained nearly a THOUSAND seats in his first year as leader. And people clinging onto the Tories losing a few more council seats – they are the party of GOVERNMENT. They are MEANT to lose council seats in local elections!!

    No amount of spin or wishful thinking will alter the facts.

  6. JAMES E.

    Hello to you. Corbyn said that Labour had ‘hung on’ earlier in the day; being reported at about 8.am today.

    NICK P.
    My take on these results is that a Labour lead of 1%, which is close to some polls, I think, is that Labour is not going to be wiped out; there is a strong Labour base and ‘constituency’ in England and Wales. Ms Abbott was saying that 31% is ok in a diversified electorate, but an Opposition Party needs to ‘hoover’ up anti Government votes in order to gain power.

    The Scottish story is reminiscent of what happened in Irish Politics from 1868 to 1912; the Nationalists replaced the Gladstone-Liberal Party, but the Centre Right Unionists around Dublin and the 4 eastern counties of Northern Ireland became numerically the second party in the 103 Westminster seats. (The tragedy of 1916-1918 meant that the Nationalists were then smashed by the Republicans in the 1918 GE.
    Professor Tim Bale has written about the need for Labour to fully embrace ‘England’ in order to win power. 1945 and 1997 Labour did win majority of English seats.
    Off to chess now!

  7. Give it a rest Bert there’s a good chap.

  8. Why is Bert not being moderated for such partisan posts?

  9. The ‘hung on’ comment from Jeremy C is on the BBC Politics page with him speaking.
    John McDonell said something similar; a modest recovery was his analysis, which is fair, IMO, of course.

  10. Agreed Chris Lane. Not a great night for Labour but outside of Scotland a decent one.

  11. PETE B

    Who’d have predicted that the Libdems would make the most gains in England? (29 up to now)

    Well some people did – namely the ones who try to make unbiased assessments. Stephen Fisher made some estimates last month and also reported those of Rallings and Thrasher:

    https://electionsetc.com/2016/04/15/forecasting-local-election-seats-2016/

    and as these are top academics working in the field and regularly crunching the numbers it’s interesting to see what they estimated:

    FISHER:

    2016 FORECAST RANGE
    Con +19 -73 to +112
    Lab -151 -276 to -26
    LD +93 +54 to +132

    RALLINGS & THRASHER:
    2016
    Con +50
    Lab -150
    LD +40

    So there was agreement that Labour would lose around 150 Council seats, the Tories would make some modest gains and the Lib Dems bigger ones. This was based on polling, what the situation was when the seats were fought last time and recent by-elections.

    In practice Labour did much better and Tories and Lib Dems rather worse than expected (current figures are -24, -35 + 37. Given how bad 2012 was for the coalition they should have been doing much better. UKIP are up 26 which must also be a disappointment as 2012 was the last year when they were still minor and should have shown a big change since.

  12. @Roger Mexico

    It has the feel of a Test Match that ends in a draw. The teams are trying to draw solace from the sessions in which they dominated to build momentum for the next one in the series.

  13. Some of the details of the Scottish elections are incredibly interesting. Here’s the Perthshire North result (the 2011 numbers are in brackets):

    SNP 16,526 (18,219)
    Con 13,190 (7,866)
    Lab 2,604 (2,672)
    LibD 1,705 (1,196)

    That looks to me like Conservatives who hadn’t bothered to vote before suddenly decided to show up – and if a few thousand more had turned up they’d have taken the seat.

    I know that Corbyn has the copyright for the idea of getting non-voters to turn out, but the Scottish Tories seem to have actually done it.

  14. @Mikey
    Moderation is almost entirely based on an auto spam filter, which often gives strange results. For some time we couldn’t use the word socialism as it contains the word cialis.

    To manually moderate would be a full time no pay job.

  15. Good description RAF.

  16. That’s for the explanation Wood.

  17. Good to see that the turnout in the London Mayoral election is significantly up from that mind-numbingly depressing Johnson v Livingstone contest of 2012 (45.3% v 37.5%). Not great, I admit, but very nearly an 8% increase and when you consider the size of the London electorate, that equates to many hundreds of thousands of additional voters participating. Let’s be grateful for small mercies.

    To the number crunchers out there, a question. Will more people have voted in the London Mayoral election yesterday than in the Scottish elections?

  18. In other news, it appears that as many as 7 elections might have to be rerun. Interesting.

  19. @Crossbat11

    “Will more people have voted in the London Mayoral election yesterday than in the Scottish elections?”

    On my very rough calculations about nine-hundred thousand to a million people more voted in London than in Scotland (3,893,000 to 2,901,000)

  20. That should have read as ” thanks” and not “that’s”

  21. Candy,

    “I know that Corbyn has the copyright for the idea of getting non-voters to turn out, but the Scottish Tories seem to have actually done it.”

    I think the Tory tactic of a strong opposition and the possibility of beating Labour got stay at home Tories to come out and vote on the list, which boosted the constituency vote.

    I also think some SNP voters thought it was a done deal and probably the best part of 1,000 LibDems voted Tory.

    We also don’t know the impact of changes in constituency population, individual registration, that might favour the Tories or the make up of the post referendum increase in turnout.

    I have a feeling that one referendum impact might have been to boost the vote of Parties on the side that one in that area. The SNP did really well in Glasgow, a Yes city and the Tories in the No voting borders.

    One of the problems with comparing this election with the last is that the referendum ( and to a lesser extent the coalition and the LibDems) has so changed the political landscape.

    Good result for the Tories no doubt and bad for Labour but I suspect that between churn and a few very close results not many votes of a difference could have given us a quite different result.

    As Anthony always advises look at the trend not one poll. We have had one election since the referendum and it’s tempting to compare it with the last and draw conclusions, but I am inclined to wait and until the dust settles I am more inclined to see this as an odd result rather than the shape of things to come!

    Crossbat,

    I think close to twice as many people vote in London than Scotland, a lot more people but lower turnout!

    Peter.

  22. Bert

    “Apart from Khan, what on earth have Labour got to be happy about?”

    Their long-term strategy – changing the electorate – is working, admittedly with a lot of help from the Tories being controlled by the cheap labor lobby.

    In particular the media’s anti-semitism campaign barely made a dent whereas it would have been a big deal once.

    There won’t be any more national swingometers for a long time.

  23. Good to see the Conservatives in Scotland voting tory rather than the SNP now Labour are finished.
    Surely Labour in Scotland will have to decide if they are a Unionist Party or an Independence party.
    The current polling suggests it is make your mind up time in scotland.
    I would prefer that Scotland goes on its own , then there would be concentration on policies rather then a never ending constitutional dilema.

  24. @ Old Nat

    It seems to me that the Lib Dems traded two list seats for two constituency seats, one in Lothian and the other in Mid Scotland and Fife.

    This paved the way for the Greens to win two list seats in Lothian and one in Mid Scotland and Fife, effectively helping the Greens overtake the Lib Dems in number of seats in the Parliament.

    The Lib Dem vote basically has not shifted from 2011 in Scotland and has shrunk in Wales. so that only their Leader could get elected.

    In London the Lib Dems were pushed from fourth place to fifth place in the overall constituency results, and it will be interesting to see whether they can get out of fifth place with the list vote.

    This could pave the way for some interesting borough council races in London in 2018. Further, the anti-corbynistas, in and outside the Labour party, need to think about the fact that Labour made significant gains against the Greens in Norwich and Oxford, and we will not see the results from Bristol until Sunday.

    That said the Greens continue to make gains against the Conservatives, and as far as I can tell have not lost a single council seat to the Lib Dems. Beyond the empty partisan
    rhetoric that flows from some peoples mouths on this list, there needs to be some kind of assessment as to who Corbyn’s policies appeal to and why.

    In Northern Ireland it looks like the Greens will make at least on gain in Belfast, possibly two, and Patrick Harvie came a respectable second ahead of Labour in Glasgow Kelvin.

    My last observation in Scotland is that the Greens while obtaining a mere .6% overall, did that in just three constituency seats, and were probably responsible for ensuring Ruth Davison’s election in Edinburgh, by taking votes away from the SNP.

    The SNP needs to reflect on that in it’s next term in government, as one would have thought it would not want to alienate that part of it’s voter coalition that leans “green”.

  25. “Nice timing of the academy U-turn. I’m beginning to suspect with all these U-turns that the government is actively making outlandish proposals it doesn’t agree with in the hope that they will be overturned, so that the opposition overlooks policies it would otherwise oppose…”

    ———–

    Didn’t work that way with the Storage Tax though….

    Nick Robinson tweeted that he thinks it’s cos of Brexit fears…

    “Nick Robinson [email protected]

    Now 3rd U turn in row – academies, talking to junior doctors & child refugees. Cause? Avoid rows/defeats that alienate pro Remain voters?”

  26. @Carfrew

    Or it could be that Corbyn has made some headway on these issues. DC is starting to struggle under the weight of a small majority. Another Coalition would have been so much easier.

  27. @Peter Cairns

    It’s not just that one seat though. Here is Angus North and Mearns (2011 results in brackets):

    SNP 13,417 (13,660)
    Con 10,945 (6,374)
    Lab 2,752 (3,160)
    LibD 2,265 (1,726)

    Again the Conservative increase seems to have come from previous non-voters.

    It changes things because now people know these voters are there, work will get put in to identify them and turn them out in future elections in bigger numbers – it even has implications for the General Election in 2020.

    I admit I was in the camp that thought nothing could be done to persuade non-voters to turn out – but here we are with an example where they’ve done just that.

  28. Yes, I would agree with some posters who say that there is a tendency to under-report Labour’s successes and to over-report the Conservative’s successes giving a misleading impression.

    Have you heard this news – Labour increase their majority in Exeter.? It is a record majority , their highest. A glance at the local paper the Express and Echo gives an impression that a disaster has occurred. They say that turnout was 39 per cent. This is then compared with the General Election turnout of more than 60 per cent. Students of politics will know that 39 per cent is not a bad turn out for a local election.

    That is the story here in Exeter.

  29. @Raf

    I nearly posted that Tories and LibDems might be missing a trick, by not going into coalition again. I know the Tories don’t technically need a coalition, but if they did it anyway, they’d get their LibDem smokescreen back and LibDems would be in government again. Appealing to both parties, I’m sure you can agree!!.

    Honestly, Crosby gets a knighthood while you get analysis like that on here for free!!

  30. “I would prefer that Scotland goes on its own , then there would be concentration on policies rather then a never ending constitutional dilema.”

    ———

    If that’s the case then the referendum result suggests the majority prefer it the way it is, less focus on policy and more endless constitutional stuff.

    After all, policy seems so very exciting, until you realise it’d be dominated by the question of how you gonna replace the oil revenues lost by the price crash…

  31. @Raf

    p.s. good cricketing analogy earlier btw!!

  32. @ADGE3

    I expect it wasn’t reported because Exeter already has a Labour MP. If it had occurred in a Tory area, it would have been very exciting. But piling up votes in areas you already hold doesn’t change anything.

  33. Prominent You Gov figure loses his rag as the count goes into Saturday…

    “3m ago 21:45
    Bad news from the City Hall count.

    — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman)
    May 6, 2016
    Declaration promised. . . . . at MIDNIGHT. #LondonElects (really f***ing slowly)

    — esther addley (@estheraddley)
    May 6, 2016
    No mayoral declaration til midnight. Groans in City Hall press room. Delay due to ‘small discrepancies’ in figures”

    (From The Guardian live blog).

  34. New thread.

  35. CANDY:
    “Again the Conservative increase seems to have come from previous non-voters.”

    Your numbers don’t show that at all. They show an increase in the number of voters, and an increase in the number of Conservative votes. To assume the increase is entirely, or even largely down to that is a leap too far. For all you know you could be seeing non voters voting Labour, Labour voters switching to Tory, SNP voters switching to Labour and all sorts. As ever, only proper detailed surveying can tell us the flows that have created these snapshot figures.

    I still think your willingness to jump to your conclusion is based partially on wishful thinking. And that doesn’t disprove what you claim, but you need to offer something a little more convincing if you want to convince someone with a more sceptical outlook.

  36. In light of the actual results, I find it funny to repeat what John Curtice predicted here:

    “The party will lose 170 councillors and control of a string of councils if people vote as the polls currently suggest, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice for The Telegraph….Losing 170 seats would be worse than any Labour performances in opposition since 1982, when the party lost 225 seats. Labour could also lose control of key councils including Cannock Chase, Crawley, Redditch, Rossendale and Southampton.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/

    Here’s the latest on the council elections:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/councils

    They’ve counted 123 of 124 councils….

    Labour – 1,291 seats (a loss of just 23 seats)

    Tories – 828 seats (a loss of 46 seats)

    Lib Dems – 370 seats (a gain of 44 seats)

    UKIP – 58 seats ( a gain of 26 seats)

    They were the main movers…if the loss of seats in English council elections was as “disastrous” for Labour as the Tory media would have us believe, then it must be twice as disastrous for the Tories!

    Another poll gone wrong? Or faulty analysis from John Curtice?

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