Today there was a new London poll from Opinium and a new Scottish poll from Survation. However with only two days to go before Thursday’s elections I thought I would take a broader look at all the polling so far for this week’s contests.

London

Four companies have produced polls for the London election this year: ComRes, YouGov, Opinium and Survation – their latest figures are below (Opinium publish their first round data without removing don’t knows, so I’ve repercentaged it to make it comparable to other polling). Note that while Opinium described their poll as their final poll for the election, the polls from the other companies are not necessarily the final ones: I’m expecting to see some eve-of-election polls tomorrow.

First round . Second Round
Pollster Goldsmith Khan Pidgeon Whittle Berry Others Goldsmith Khan
Opinium (26th Apr-1st May) 35 48 4 5 5 3 43 57
Survation (21st-25th Apr) 34 49 3 5 3 6 40 60
YouGov (15th-19th Apr) 32 48 5 7 6 2 40 60
ComRes (30th Mar-3rd Apr) 37 44 7 5 4 3 45 55

The recent polls have Sadiq Khan convincingly ahead – the three most recent polls have him just short of winning on the first round, and on the second round he wins comfortably with a lead of 14 to 20 points. The ComRes poll is a little closer, but is a month old now and still had Khan winning by ten points on the second round. Note that only one poll, Opinium’s final call, has been conducted since Labour’s anti-Semitism row. Khan himself has thoroughly distanced himself from Ken Livingstone, but there is always a risk of guilt by association. Opinium’s poll doesn’t suggest it has damaged him (in fact it had Khan extending his lead) and Khan’s lead looks unsurmountable anyway, but we’ll see what the final polls tomorrow show.

Scotland

A broader range of companies have produced polls in Scotland, with figures from six different companies so far. Once again, these are by no means the final polls from each company and I am expecting final eve-of-election polls from some companies tomorrow.

Constituency . Regional
Pollster CON LAB LD SNP CON LAB LD SNP GRN
Survation (1st-2nd May) 19 21 7 49 20 19 6 44 7
Panelbase (23rd-28th Apr) 17 23 6 49 19 22 4 44 6
Ipsos MORI (18th-25th Apr) 18 19 6 51 19 17 7 45 10
TNS (1st-24th Apr) 17 22 7 52 18 22 5 45 8
BMG (11th-15th Apr) 16 21 6 53 16 20 6 46 7
YouGov (7th-11th Apr) 19 21 6 50 18 19 5 45 8

The SNP’s victory in Scotland is a foregone conclusion (hell, if they don’t win this would be the king of all polling errors). The more interesting question is who will come in second place – Scottish Labour’s stock has fallen so low they risk dropping behind the Scottish Conservatives. All recent polls now have Labour ahead of the Tories on the constituency vote, but several have the Conservatives ahead on the regional vote (and given that Labour will struggle to win constituency seats, the regional tally will likely have a greater impact on how many MSPs each party gets). Also keep an eye on the gap between the SNP’s constituency vote and regional vote – in 2007 and 2011 they were within a percentage point or two of each other, but the polls are suggesting the SNP will do between five and seven points worse on the regional vote, largely to the benefit of the Scottish Greens. This seems feasible enough (the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system means that if the SNP clean up on constituency seats they will struggle to win many list seats) but it will be interesting to see to what extent it is reflected in the actual results.

Wales

There is comparatively little polling in Wales and the only regular and recent figures are the YouGov polls for ITV Wales and Cardiff University (ably reported on by Roger Scully at his Elections in Wales blog). The most recent figures there are CON 19%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 21%, UKIP 15% for the constituency and CON 19%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 22%, UKIP 15% in the regional vote. There will be a final YouGov Wales poll on ITV news tomorrow night.

Northern Ireland

Despite the name of this blog, it actually tends to be GB Polling Report most of the time – Northern Irish polls are even rarer than Welsh ones. We do have one though! Lucidtalk had a poll of Assembly voting intention figures in the Northern Irish edition of today’s Sun – topline figures are DUP 27%, SF 26%, UUP 16%, SDLP 12%, Alliance 8%, TUV 4%, GRN 3%.

Police and local elections

The other two elections on Thursday are local authority elections – mainly in those districts councils that elect by thirds, including metropolitan councils outside London (just over a third of the country will have local elections) – and Police and Crime Commissioner elections, which take place throughout England and Wales with the exceptions of London and Greater Manchester. Neither contest has any published polling.


132 Responses to “Polling on Thursday’s elections”

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  1. Holyrood Predictions:

    SNP 63
    CON 27
    LAB 27
    LIB 7
    GRN 5

    Polls are overestimating SNP, they’ll win most constituency seats but do worse in regional vote due to green and other pro independence parties. LAB and CON will benefit from the regional vote and LIB will hold onto key seats a gain a couple, probably North East Fife.

  2. Thanks Anthony.

    I read earlier that in the most recent Opinium Mayoral Poll, Khan was only 9% ahead of Zac of FP. Is that correct?

  3. RAF – That’s what I meant about repercentaging figures. Opinium published the first round figures without removing don’t knows, so that only had a nine point gap… but if you exclude don’t knows to make it comparable to other polling it increases Sadiq Khan’s lead.

  4. Good evening all from a fine evening in Hampshire.

    “The SNP’s victory in Scotland is a foregone conclusion (hell, if they don’t win this would be the king of all polling errors)”
    ……

    Yes I suspect it would be but I have every faith in the ol tartan polls but the interesting part of the election will be if the Tories do boot Labour into 3rd place. Ruth Davidson has run a good campaign with a good narrative that Scotland needs an effective opposition and appears to resonate with the public.

    Moving onto Wales, Plaid Cymru look to be heading for a good night along with UKIP however even though Welsh Labour, Llafur Cymru for our Welsh speakers, are facing a disastrous result they will probably cling onto power because I can’t see PC going into power with them and Labour and the Tories will stay clear of each other. Basically there are no natural bedfellows in Wales.

    What else is there chew on..Oh yes the London Mayor election. This will probably be the only bright spot for Labour on hat looks to be a horrific night for them in Scotland, Wales and the English council elections.

    In fact, the Scottish media are saying Labour are heading for their worse election result in Scotland since 1910.

    Hmm!!

  5. @Anthony

    Sorry. My mistake. I didn’t read your article properly.

  6. “The SNP’s victory in Scotland is a foregone conclusion (hell, if they don’t win this would be the king of all polling errors)”

    Let’s see what effect Kez and Ruth jointly claiming tomorrow that Nicola’s Dad was involved in the assassination of JFK will have! :-)

  7. #what looks to be a horrific night

    DEMOSCOT

    The polls may be overestimating the SNP but I think they will manage more than 63 seats alone on the constituency.. Labour held 15 FPTP seats in the last parliament with a combined majority of 22,000, I think the SNP will easily take all them with my old seat of Eastwood being the exception and possibly;y going to the Tories.

    Also, Tory and Labour on 27 seats each? Very doubtful but possibly one of them may hit 27.

  8. @AC

    “In fact, the Scottish media are saying Labour are heading for their worse election result in Scotland since 1910.”

    That’s one way of looking at it. Labour certainly appears done in Scotland for the foreseeable future, hovering as they are around 20%. The reality however appears to be that all parties in Scotland other than the SNP are an irrelevance at the moment. The Cons are polling around their usual 20%. And the others decidedly lower.

  9. @AC

    And may I add that Labour likely woeful performances in Wales and the English Council elections will be a direct result of the forthcoming EU Referendum. One may ask why these elections are being held so close together.

  10. Recalling my 2011 prediction that the AMS system meant that the SNP just might (unimaginably at the time) reach 65 seats and an absolute majority ………

    The effect of the system can mean that, in regions where the SNP don’t take every constituency seat, they’ll gain a List one in compensation

    Who will gain the 7th seat in each region is wholly unpredictable – often being down to a tiny (and, therefore, wholly unpredictable) margin of difference between two or three parties at the 7th round of d’Hondt calculations.

    So, I’ll have a guess at the outcome.

    SNP 72
    Con 23
    Lab 23
    Green 8
    L_D 3

  11. RAF

    I agree with you in regards to Scotland, the SNP are the only major players in Scotland for now and currently Labour look to be heading backwards even further on their collapse in 2011.

    The Tories in Scotland always manage to hang onto to what they already have and may look on with delight if Labour come crashing down below them.

    I’m not sure I’m with you on why the EU referendum should impact on Labour’s performance in Wales and in the locals? but I do agree the EU vote should be held much later on from all the elections we have on May 5th

  12. OLDNAT

    You’re prediction isn’t a million miles of my own which I posted a few nights back, however I would probably drop the Greens slightly and boost the Lib/Dems right up to 4 and drop the SNP 1 giving it to the Tories which would give Ruth her goal.

  13. ‘Your as to you’re and off as to of… Typo night.

  14. @ Old Nat

    I note in the latest Survation poll, with undecided and refused removed, that another party in the constituency vote was at 9.0% in Glasgow well ahead of the Lib Dems at 5.5%.

    The only region where the Lib Dems have a chance to elect anyone in a constituency is in the Highland and Islands where they are second with 21.1%, way behind the SNP who are currently on 52.2%.

    In the regional list the number of undecided is very high at more than 1:5 in West Scotland and over 1:6 in Central, Lothian, Mid Scotland and Fife.

    The Greens are now running fourth ahead of Labour in the Highlands and Islands and seem assured to get seats in Central, Glasgow, Lothian and West Scotland as well.

    Outside of the Highlands and islands support for the Lib Dems over 6% is confined to South Scotland and the North East. The only region where UKIP have support at 6% is the Highlands and Islands, and here they are competing with five other parties – Labour running fifth with 10.8%.

  15. @AC

    “I’m not sure I’m with you on why the EU referendum should impact on Labour’s performance in Wales and in the locals? but I do agree the EU vote should be held much later on from all the elections we have on May 5th.”

    I suspect a surge in Ukip support in England/Wales as all eyes are fixated on the EU Ref. This may be wrong, of course. Ukip did reasonably well in Wales at the GE anyway and also got millions of votes in England.

  16. There’s a remarkable comparison to be made from the current London Mayor polls above, and the final pre-election polls from the same companies in 2012.

    Using the first round figures:

    ComRes 2012 9% Con lead V 7% Lab lead in 2016
    Opinium 2012 6% Con lead V 13% Lab lead in 2016
    YouGov 2012 5% Con lead V 16% Lab lead in 2016
    Survation 2012 11% Con lead V 15% Lab lead in 2016

    These average as a huge 10% Con to Lab swing.

    It should be remembered that the 2012 London polls overstated the Con lead, which was only 4% in the first round on the day. Also, as AW says there are a couple of further polls before Thursday, so this could change a bit. But the polling could hardly be better for Khan.

  17. Some commentators here seem to prefer making their own (wishful?) predictions about the Elections in my neck of the woods than looking at the Polls. They need to read and inwardly digest the excellent and impartial articles on recent polls by Roger Scully of Cardiff University.

    There is no evidence of a major PC surge. They may just manage to kick the Cons out of the 2nd place they gained in last Welsh Assemby elections, but polls suggest they are only in line to gain 1 constituency seat. All four of the parties currently holding seats (including PC) are likely to lose both vote % and seats to UKIP. Recent polls suggest Labour will win 27-29 seats or not far short of the 30 (50%) they hold now, which is really a high water mark given the part-PR system which is one of Blair’s legacies. I don’t see how 27-29 seats can be seen as a disaster, catastrophe etc etc. After 17 years in continuous Government in Wales it would be unrealistic to expect much more. Voting here is NOT simply a reaction to Westminster politics. We run our own health service, education and environmental protection – Welsh voters are passing judgement on who should continue to run them, not on the latest trumped-up anti Corbyn or anti anyone story produced by the Westminster “experts” whose world ends at the Watford Gap.

    As for Allan’s suggestion that PC will not go into coalition with Labour, he’s got it 100% wrong. It is the Conservatives (and UKIP) whom Plaid have ruled out as partners in advance of the Election. Moreover given Labour’s dominance of the constituency vote in SE and S Central Wales, many know that a vote for Labour in the PR top up section is wasted, and are being courted to give or “lend” their second vote to Plaid. We actually had a stable and successful Labour-Plaid coalition in 2007-11, which if repeated would carry the advantage (especially in negotiating with Cam & Co) that it actually represented the majority of Welsh voters unlike the current UK Government.

    Still let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good argument !

  18. I think that whilst the SNP are going to dominate Scotland Labour may pick up some regional support to compensate a wee bit. Though it’s very true we tend to befriend those similar to us, many of my friends are (or have become) staunch nationalists and SNP supporters including some who are running as candidates in the upcoming election, yet many are not sure what to make of the “Two votes SNP” push.

    The SNP’s growth in Scotland has been nothing short of stunning, yet now they are undeniably in control. This monolithic level of unfettered control over Scotland has left many uneasy, some of whom will be voting Greens and others Labour. The former gaining as the alternative left party to those who voted in favour of Independence and the latter benefitting from groups who voted No or Abstained in the referendum, however indicated they would support SNP in the devolved election. There has been recently some more scrutiny over the SNP’s record which has turned off some others, and that of their supporters (Wings over Scotland for example which ran a piece calling Liverpool fans during the Hillsborough disaster the C-bomb following the recent verdict). Whilst I think the latter two will have less of an impact on the SNP’s momentum this side of May 5th, I think their titanic levels of support is starting to scare some voters off now they have effectively become “The Establishment”.

    I’m going to stick my neck out and say:

    SNP 69
    LAB 27
    CON 21
    LIB DEM 2
    GRN 9
    UKIP 1

  19. RAF

    UKIP will probably take seats from both Labour and the Tories and the Lib/Dems and Greens may even eat into the Labour and Tory seats.

    I haven’t really got to grips with how the local elections work yet. My local council, Winchester City council is electing 1/3 of it’s seats which includes the area of Hampshire I live in and a year later another bit of the council elects another 1/3 of seats and then a year later another 1/3 vote. Winchester is also the country town for the whole of Hampshire which just bamboozles me even further.

    Too many levels of local government and I’m not surprised the turn out will be shockingly low.I won’t be voting simply because I’m not yet registered to vote at my current address as I’ve only been here for a few months.

  20. @ Jemes E you stated:

    It should be remembered that the 2012 London polls overstated the Con lead, which was only 4% in the first round on the day.

    Not correct You Gov/Standard was at:

    Con 43%
    Labour 41%

    First round results were 44% Con to 40.3% Labour, well within the margin of error.

    Where You/Gov overestimated was polling Lib Dems at 8% when they got 4.2%, behind the Greens at 4.5%.

    Part of the difference this time is from the increased support for other candidates like UKIP moving from 2%, to 5% to 7%.

    TNS/BMRB and Comres pegged the Cons at 45%, well within the margin of error, but goofed on calling Labour at 35%-36%, with TNS finding the Lib Dems at 11%, whereas Comres placed them at 5%

  21. Andy Shadrack

    I don’t place much faith in the regional crossbreaks – for all the usual reasons (small sample size, not internally weighted etc).

    Even YG, in their Welsh poll to be done on Thursday (in a smaller country, with fewer regional seats) aren’t planning to estimate individual regions on the basis of those samples.

    I’ll be a polling agent on Thursday for the SNP – but even I haven’t finally decided my List vote between SNP and Green.

    I’m sure that there are lots of similar people on the Unionist side too. Their constituency vote won’t necessarily match their List one – though still on the Unionist side.

    There will always be a few who cross the constitutional dividing line (as Peter Cairns identified in a previous thread) but most will remain within their own “camp”.

    Roger Scully identified that Labour did worse in the Welsh elections when turnout was low – and party turnout is lower when morale is low. It’s hard to see how the narrative of this election (and the UK activities in Labour – more likely to be of concern to Unionists than Independistas) could lead to other than low morale in SLab.

    Complacency could depress turnout among SNP voters, and, while probably not affecting many constituency results, might affect List seat pickup.

    The Lib-Dem’s are worth keeping an eye on – but not for reasons that they would necessarily be happy with!

    By running paper candidates in all constituencies, they may have created a scenario where some may decide they have “done their duty” by the LDs in casting a worthless FPTP vote for them, and then turning to which of the bigger Unionist parties might best “hold the SNP to account”. That is also a fate that could damage Labour on the List.

    I’m more confident about the Green vote holding up (and possibly exceeding poll expectations). Many of their core supporters will vote SNP in the constituency but enthusiastically Green on the List. They’ll be joined by a reasonable number of “SNP folk” who will vote Green on the List – to increase the number of pro-indy MSPs and/or to push the SNP into more radical positions on issues like Land Reform.

    Finally, the electorate is only 3.6% smaller than for the indyref, not as much as I had expected given the new registration system.

    No one expects to see indyref participation levels – but who will not bother turning up – and what effect will that have?

  22. No the final YouGov/Standard poll in 2012 showed Johnson 5% ahead for the Tories, as shown in my figures.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/london-mayor-2012

    While YouGov at 5% was still right to within a margin of error, the 4 pollsters I have quoted were averaging an 8% Con lead, as opposed to a final result of 4%.I have simply shown the lead for Lab or Con in each case, so the figures for UKIP and the Lib Dems isn’t relevant.

  23. WELSH BORDERER
    “As for Allan’s suggestion that PC will not go into coalition with

    “Labour, he’s got it 100% wrong. It is the Conservatives (and UKIP) whom Plaid have ruled out as partners in advance of the Election. Moreover given Labour’s dominance of the constituency vote in SE and S Central Wales, many know that a vote for Labour in the PR top up section is wasted, and are being courted to give or “lend” their second vote to Plaid. We actually had a stable and successful Labour-Plaid coalition in 2007-11, which if repeated would carry the advantage (especially in negotiating with Cam & Co) that it actually represented the majority of Welsh voters unlike the current UK Government”
    _________

    The last time PC got into bed with Labour they got shafted by the voters at the next election. Carwyn Jones is just as impossible to remove as my ol pal kim jong un of North Korea.

    Carwyn Jones knows he is in a very unique and privileged position because he knows PC will never do a deal with the Tories or UKIP and if PC stick the boot into him over any deals then he can simply limp on as a discredited and disgruntled administration.

    Maybe if the Lib’Dems win a couple of seats then they might breath some light into Carwyn Jones’s lumbering administration. Labour have been in power in Wales for nearly 20 years, not through popularity but default yet their Scottish cousins complain of SNP dominance over the past 9 years.

  24. Sorry 15 years

  25. Anthony

    A somewhat technical point – but when YG asks the background questions of respondents, it would help if it didn’t make assumptions that terminology used in England is the norm.

    For example, I found some difficulty responding to these at the end of tonight’s Holyrood poll.

    YG talks of “LEA”s. Other than those knowledgeable about the English system, that would be meaningless. Similarly, “teaching” is put into the non-degree category, while Scotland has had teaching as an all-graduate profession for many years.

    It might be worth having your terminology checked by people who have experience of the different systems in GB/UK.

    It probably doesn’t distort your figures to a great degree, but it might to some extent, so worth getting right.

  26. In the final round in 2012 Boris defeated Ken by barely 3% – pollsters had been predicting a more convincing win than that!

  27. If Khan loses this one, or in fact if it is even close then the pollsters need to shut up shop and pursue other business opportunities.

    Even if Ken carried on for the next two days continuing his Throbbing Gristle* tribute act, he would not wind up enough people to close down a lead like that.

    *transgressive art rock band.

  28. @OldNat

    Good point – remembering al those highly suspect IQ tests in the US which intentionally deployed culturally specific words to suppress the scores of certain groups. Harp being a string instrument to some but a wind instrument (harmonica) to others.

    Though the last time I looked (and despite the best efforts of certain education secretaries) teaching was / is a degree only profession in England and Wales and has been since the 1980s at least.

    It may therefore be indicative of a survey that was somewhat sloppily put together generally.

  29. Welsh Borderer

    I’m a Scully fan too!

    Without him, I’d be reliant on Twitter, and occasional links to Wales Online for any understanding of Welsh politics.

    If my reading of the Wales Act is correct (and I make no such assumption!) then minority government should be much easier in Wales than in Scotland. There seems to be no mechanism by which the combined opposition parties could force the resignation of the FM or an Extraordinary GE.

    Presumably, they could copy the Unionist parties in Scotland in 2007 and force through a Budget change like making the SG pay for the Edinburgh trams (that went well!) but I can’t see any issue on which Plaid and UKIP would vote on the same side to do any such thing.

  30. On Wales: I thought I’d seen some polling where UKIP were doing better then PC?

    On English local elections. I’m surprised that there seems to have been no polling, and yet everyone seems to be assuming that Labour will do badly. How do they know?

  31. Assiduosity

    Did you miss the advert (got a lot of coverage on social media here) for an English school advertising for a specifically unqualified teacher?

    Isn’t one of the main points about academies that they can hire whoever they like and put them in front of a class?

  32. Welsh Borderer
    Thanks for your post. I’ll be interested to see how PC do in the Welsh elections, but I lack an in-depth understanding of the local political context.

    You seem to suggest that WLab continue to do well because the administration is perceived as having done a good job of running devolved matters. Do you also think they’re insulated from some of the problems SLab have suffered because right from the start Morgan made a point of asserting the Welsh administration’s separate identity? There seems to be at least some evidence for divergence in Lab performance in Westminster and Assembly elections.

    As an outsider I wonder why Lab doesn’t face a more effective challenge. Wood ticks plenty of boxes yet she doesn’t seem to have made much impact – why is that? Is PC just not perceived as offering credible alternative policies at Assembly level? I’ve only heard Wood on UK media and she’s been short on specifics, but that might be the context.

  33. @Hawthorn

    “If Khan loses this one, or in fact if it is even close then the pollsters need to shut up shop and pursue other business opportunities.”

    Indeed.

    Particularly as there’s plenty of voting history to weight by.

    Still, some eve of vote polls to come, so perhaps we might find slightly less clear predictions from elsewhere.

    If the polls are correct, and the margin of victory really is this wide, it marks quite a state of affairs for the Conservatives in London.

    Whilst I acknowledge what AW has said about the swing to Labour in the GE, the voting system and executive mayor structure should both favour the Conservatives in the capital – even Norris in the second contest got to 45%.

    Anything less than that would surely raise a few questions about Goldsmith’s campaign – Khan’s lead, as tracked by the polls seems to have lengthened throughout the ‘battle’.

    The total absence of polling for the English council elections only makes their outcome even more intriguing. After the massive failures in punditry at the Oldham West by election,and given all the moving parts, parties and votes, it would be a brave commentator who claimed with any certain idea of what the fall out of Thursday’s election will be.

  34. These are the seats Labour is defending against the Conservatives at the local elections:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0

  35. @OldNat

    The term ‘unqualified teacher’ means that the person does not have ‘Qualified Teacher Status’, it does not mean they don’t have a degree.

    The best survey carried out into this work indicates that of the new ‘unqualified teachers’ to have entered the profession following the change in rules in 2012, none were without a degree or equivalent / superior qualification, but lacked a specific teaching qualification and hence QTS.

    Whether this position has changed since the survey in 2014 I’m not sure, but at the number of unqualified teachers had not risen as a proportion of the whole number it seems unlikely.

    Of course there have traditionally been unqualified teachers in the independent sector in all parts of the UK, including Scotland – though it seems this is now being resolved by the Scottish Government (as of this year, I believe).

  36. @AndyJS
    That is an interesting link. Are the Conservatives the second-placed party in all those seats?

  37. Assiduosity

    “The term ‘unqualified teacher’ means that the person does not have ‘Qualified Teacher Status’, it does not mean they don’t have a degree.”

    Ta – but my understanding is that it also means that they needn’t have a degree either.

    If you are telling me that, in England, you need to have a degree to teach in a public school (another example of how terminology can be used in precisely opposite ways in different countries :-) ) then, of course, I accept that.

    But how many of the schools in England are public (in the Scots sense) as opposed to private?

    We have some specialist schools which are run by non-governmental agencies, but funded from the public purse. However, they are not permitted to employ teachers who are not registered with the GTC

    You are right about teachers in Scotland’s independent schools finally being required to have GTC registration. That simply demonstrates the Scottish Government’s determination on universality of provision.

    No child should be exposed to inadequate teaching, simply because they are rich.

    Regardless of all that – we are agreed that YG can be pretty crap about the terminology they use in allocating their panel members to particular categries. :-)

  38. GOP candidate “race”

    Cruz pulled out of the race. Can Kasich pull off a miracle (or fix) at the convention?

    I know a few Democrats who would vote Kasich rather than Clinton in November.

  39. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I haven’t really got to grips with how the local elections work yet. My local council, Winchester City council is electing 1/3 of it’s seats which includes the area of Hampshire I live in and a year later another bit of the council elects another 1/3 of seats and then a year later another 1/3 vote.

    Winchester City Council’s election this year are a bit confusing, though why they should flummox a Scot used to five different electoral systems for five different levels of government I don’t know. Basically what has happened is that the ward boundaries have been re-drawn for this year so all councillors are up for election this year with two or three to be chosen is each ward (of which confusingly only only five are in Winchester City[1]).

    Those elected will then serve two years (the elections in 2017 are for county councillors) then the councillor who came third will be up for election in 2018, the one who came second in 2019 and the one who came first in 2020. In the two member wards it’s a bit more random. After these elections each councillor elected serves four years, so only one councillor is elected for a ward each year (at most).

    [1] What is more the ward map on the Council website shows the old boundaries not the new ones and I had to look at the actual legal order:

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2015/2063/made

    (via Wiki) to find out what was going on because the Council’s explanation was so unclear.

  40. So will there be any exit polls in Scotland or Wales?

    And what time does the counting start in Scotland, noting I am eight hours behind you folks in the UK – so 10.00 PM your time is 2.00 PM mine?

  41. Hawthorn”Even if Ken carried on for the next two days continuing his Throbbing Gristle* tribute act, he would not wind up enough people to close down a lead like that.”

    Hehehe .
    Best music reference ever!

    Can’t say I’m expecting anything other than a very disappointing night for Labour, London Mayoral election excepted.

    The only thing that might affect the vote in Scotland would be SNP voters not turning out as they expect the result north of the border to be a foregone conclusion, but knowing such voters, it’s unlikely to happen.

    Tomorrow is forecast to be the hottest day of the year. Might help Labour get their votes out!

    There again it might not…

  42. ANDY SHADRACK:
    “And what time does the counting start in Scotland”

    I rather depends on the region / cluster of constituencies, but I’ve heard that in mine the postal ballots will be opened at 10pm. As it’s (relatively) urban, I expect the individual constituencies to be mostly in by 11pm.

    A picture should start to emerge come midnight, barring exit polls (of which I know nothing), and three hours after that you should see a flurry of declared results (constituencies).

    The regional counts might be done in parallel or after the constituencies. In any case, the constituencies need to ba finalised before the regional results can be announced, so expect some regions to declare later due to recounts. I’m expecting a close result in my constituency, Edinburgh Southern, which could delay the Lothian regional results. Other regions presumably have a comparable knife-edge constituency.

  43. @Syzygy

    (from previous thread)

    I take your point about the apparent contradiction in my argument about Corbyn being a diminished and undermined figure even if he won another leadership contest convincingly, but I base it on past stalking horse contests. Thatcher and Major won theirs convincingly but it was the beginning of a process that led to their eventual demise and the contest itself, whatever the result, is a very public display of disunity and lack of confidence in the leader amongst certain sections of his/her own party. Rather than being strengthened by winning the contest, Corbyn’s lack of support in the PLP would be flashed up in big bright lights once again.

    This is only my view of course, and I can understand why some might think that a resounding re-election for Corbyn could actually strengthen his position, but I’m reminded a little of beleaguered football managers receiving unanimous votes of confidence from their Board of Directors. The fact that the Board feels the need to do so only underlines the inherent weakness of the Manager’s position and usually precedes their sacking not long after.

    The more Corbyn looks like a leader wholly dependent on a well organised and zealous, but ideologically narrow, group of supporters within his own party the less he looks like a leader to me. It’s also misleading to claim that his only opposition within the party is from disillusioned old Blairites. I think there are agnostics and people harbouring doubts about him from right across the centre left political spectrum and if, by 2018, let’s say, he looks like he’s heading the party to defeat, I suspect people will be breaking ranks from quite surprising strands in the party.

    He’s got it all to do for me, and I’m one of those who thinks he deserves more time, but I have to say that I’m disappointed in what I’ve seen so far from the Corbyn team, not just their lack of political stagecraft and party management skills but also their inability, maybe unwillingness even, to lead an essentially social democratic party and core vote base from a centrist and mainstream position.

  44. In Wales in the General Election UKIP got 13.6% of the vote. In England UKIP had 14.1% of the vote. The latest opinion Poll for wales places UKIP on 15% which matches the recent UK polling for UKIP. The difference in Wales which will make UKIP appear more successful is an electoral system which reflects more proportionately the votes cast. I am sure, however that this will not be portrayed in this way by the media. I foresee headlines of a UKIP breakthrough in Wales on a vote share no different to that which the party will get throughout England and Wales.

    The difference between Scotland and Wales in this respect is that Scotland has a tradition of a number of home based print media outlets, Wales has one in the South and one in the North, but they are both dominated in terms of market share by the UK print media, and whilst on television there is Welsh news, this occupies the same position as regional news programmes in other parts of the UK. To that extent I disagree with Welsh Borderer that UK issues do not have a significant impact on voting intention in Wales.

    In addition to this turnout in the Assembly elections has been, generally woeful and always below 50%. In my judgement this is because from the outset the Assembly has always been seen as less important to political careers than Westminster, the quality of politicians elected therefore has been less than it ought to have been, and certainly, from my observations, has been well below the quality of individual elected to the Scottish Parliament.

    I can see little difference between the UK party VI and the Wales VI save in respect of Plaid Cymru. I expect them to become the second party but not to enter coalition: C and S maybe. I do predict that before the next election UKIP in the assembly will shatter (I cannot see Reckless and Hamilton working in Harmony) and all other parties will have a new leader: Adam Price for Plaid Cymru; bit more difficult to predict the other leaders maybe Vaughn Gethin for Labour.

  45. Final Comres London Mayoral poll:

    First Preferences
    Khan 45 (+1)
    Zac 36 (-1)

    After Second Preferences
    Khan 56 (+1)
    Zac 44 (-1)
    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/lbc-itv-news-london-mayoral-poll-may-2016/

  46. OLDNAT:
    “I’ll be a polling agent on Thursday for the SNP – but even I haven’t finally decided my List vote between SNP and Green.
    […]
    Complacency could depress turnout among SNP voters, and, while probably not affecting many constituency results, might affect List seat pickup.”

    In my opinion, you’ve answered your own dilemma there!

    In any case, the way I look at it is this:
    If the SNP get 45% list vote, and they win 6 constituencies, that’s 45% / 7 = 6.43%
    If the Greens get 6% list and 0 constituencies, that’s 6%.

    Clearly it’s very likely that Lab / Con will pick up the first couple of list seats, but after that you’ll have possibly five parties all on an effective vote of about 6%. So for me it comes down to: which party do you most prefer?

    From the SNP point of view, if complacency / tactical voting does damage the constituency seats, there are big gains to be made on the list. 45% / 5 (as in, four constituency seats won) = 9%, probably enough to take the first list seat, and then that 45% / 6 = 7.5%, probably enough to take a second list seat. Even 45% / 7 = 6.43% could take a third list seat.
    On the other hand, if the region returns 8 SNP constituencies, 45% / 9 = 5%, probably not enough for a single list seat.

    The calculus for voting tactically on the list is fraught. You are first relying on knowing the number of contituencies each party wins, and then knowing the likely proportion of list votes to each party. It seems that both of these are vulnerable to whims, laziness, uncaptured shifts in opinion and /other people’s tactical voting/! In short, I’d stay well clear. Vote for what you believe in. For me, the most profound regret you could have at election time would be to vote for a tactical compromise, only to wake up the next day and find that you miscalculated and your vote would have been better placed where your real first preference is.

  47. Maxim Parr-Reid
    ‘I think the Tories will be ahead of Labour in MSPs because of the consistent Con leads in the Regional List vote. ‘

    There is no such consistent evidence in the six polls listed by Anthony – four of which show Labour ahead on the Regional list with the Tories leading in two!

  48. Hello all. Been lurking but thought I’d pop back for election season.

    I am equally unsure about my list vote tomorrow. I am likely to support one of the minor parties but unsure who to plump for out of Lib Dem and Green.

    Being in the West Scotland region I suspect it may not make much difference as I think neither will win a seat (4 Lab, 3 Con being my prediction).

    Ironically it probably boosts the chances of election for my preferred list vote recipient if my constituency (Eastwood) went Tory and therefore the d’Hondt threshold would be a bit lower than if the SNP take all 10 Constituencies.

    Not sure I’m quite ready for a tactical conservative vote however.

    Full Predictions to follow.

  49. Afternoon folks, I’d taken a bit of a hiatus from UKPR (not even lurking). Here is one of the safe havens of the internet in terms of discourse, but I was getting a bit fed up of the lack of nuance on online discussions of late – the sort of arguments that go, “I disagree with you, therefore you’re an idiot” :)

    For tomorrow, I think eyes should be (but probably won’t be) on turnout. I imagine the ScotsParl election will have reasonable turnout, but elsewhere (including the Police Commissioner elections!?!) it could be lucky to break 30%. To be honest, I can completely understand if people couldn’t be bothered to vote in local authority elections – it’s not like they wield much power these days.

    Thanks AW for mentioning the NI elections, they don’t get a great deal of mention here, but I like to comment on the Folks on the Hill* from time to time. I don’t expect much in the way of change, even though I’d imagine most people in NI are a bit fed up with the lack of progress on public services (particularly education) and jobs. It’s an interesting election in the sense that there are three new leaders for the main parties, and a considerable amount of disillusionment with the status quo, but which will probably end up with a familiar outcome.

    Briefly on tactical voting under AMS – this is going to make it a long night in both Wales and Scotland. As pointed out by OldNat and Alun above, the chase for the final d’Hondt seat will need more than an abacus to work it out. Is there a procedure for a recount for the list seats? It’s just a shame that we don’t have reliable crossbreaks for the regions in Wales and Scotland – the regional deviation of VI is almost as important as the central projection for the Lib Dems and Greens.

    And finally, I’ve resolved to be nice to people for the next while, and with that, I wish anyone involved in canvassing, counting or simply voting tomorrow, good luck in whatever election it is (even the police commissioner elections). After some of the commentary we’ve all heard over the last few months, it’s nice to have a bit of democracy for once :)

    * Local (and rather derogatory) term for the Assembly Members in Stormont (the Hill).

  50. AW, I’ve a post in mod – Any idea why?

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