There are three EU polls in the Sunday papers.

  • An online Opinium poll for the Observer had topline figures of REMAIN 42%, LEAVE 41%, DON’T KNOW 14%. The one point lead for remain compares to a four point leave lead a month ago (tabs).
  • An online ORB poll for the Independent had topline figures of 50% REMAIN, 50% LEAVE without turnout, REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 51% once weighted for turnout (the previous ORB online poll a month ago had a break of Remain 51%, Leave 49%, but didn’t account for turnout) (tabs)
  • An online ICM poll in the Sun on Sunday had toplines of 43% REMAIN, 46% LEAVE, DON’T KNOW 11%. These are almost unchanged from the ICM poll in the week, which had figures of 44% remain and 46% leave.

Three online polls, all showing the extremely close referendum race that online polling has been consistently showing. The Opinium poll also had some intriguing Westminster voting intention figures: CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%. An eight point lead for the Conservatives is the largest any poll has shown since before the budget, and is an increase of seven points since Opinium’s last poll. The Tues-Fri fieldwork period overlapped with Labour’s anti-Semitism row, so it could be that it has dented Labour’s support… but it is only one poll, so wait to see if other polling echoes it. (Interestingly the tables for the Opinium poll have the voting intention question at the end, after a question about who people would trust on the economy. If that actually is the order the questions were asked it that could have potentially affected responses as well.)

UPDATE: Ignore the strange question ordering in the Opinium tables – the questions were actually asked in the normal order, with voting intention at the start


159 Responses to “Sunday polls on the EU referendum”

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  1. Tut, dragged the party and the members and they hated it.

  2. @ Old Nat & Couper 2808

    I understand that Patrick Harvie had a good last debate on tv yesterday and that the Sunday Herald has endorsed the Greens for the list vote – for the first time.

    I just got back from Manitoba, Winnipeg to be precise, where the two old line parties got after each other so badly, and the Liberal Leader was so ineffectual, that the Greens got an unprecedented bounce at the end of the campaign.

    Enough that we kept one inner city member of the legislature up until 2,00 AM before he knew if he had kept his seat.

    That said, any chance that Patrick Harvie could pull off a stunner and take his seat of Glasgow Kelvin?

    I also read that UKIP are close to a complete meltdown in Scotland, and one can only wish it would happen elsewhere.

    They will be unbearable if “Leave” wins, as will Boris.

  3. @Robert Newark

    “There is and will continue to be a revival in the Tories fortunes there, over time because there is a need for a centre right party. Probably never to govern but as a credible opposition.”

    Is there really a revival in Tory fortunes in Scotland? The latest polls still have them lagging in third behind an enfeebled Scottish Labour party and, at a time when Labour had an almost historically bad GE result north of the border, only 12 months ago in fact, the Tories slumped to their lowest ever percentage share of the vote – a paltry 14%. The fact that Labour has slumped so far as to now be in Tory VI country says more about the Labour decline rather than any Tory revival. In fact there is an argument that says that the Tories ought to be doing much better in Scotland than they are. If as you argue, they now have the centre right political territory all to themselves, then bobbing around between 17-20% in the polls suggests to me a terminally moribund political party.

    I could see UKIP hoovering up some centre right voters though in Scotland. The Tories look a defunct brand to me north of the border; a corpse that twitches every now and again.

  4. @Rory Hughes

    I think you shouldn’t worry, freedom of movement is essential for the EU to operate, so the UK won’t be booted from the club in case people vote to Leave.
    If it does come down to restricting freedom of movement (which would be completely foolish), then the EU (and the UK) will crumble anyway.

  5. Mark
    But the party has accepted it, and has elected a gay woman as leader in Scotland to boot.

    Rory

    I’m baffled why you think anyone would leave the uk if it left the eu. There are many reasons to leave the uk but it being in or out of the U.K., surely isn’t one of them. There was a world before 1973 you know, in which we were moderately successful for 900 years or so.

  6. crossbat11
    My point was that the SNP has replaced labour, probably for good. You are quite correct that the centre right vacuum could be filled by UKIP, rather than the Tories, or at least shared between them. But then the pundits do say that that Ruth Davidson is doing rather well and has at least arrested the decline and I thought that Nigel was not that liked north of the border?

  7. I don’t really understand the fuss about freedom of movement in the EU. After all, UK people lived, worked and holidayed on the continent before we ever joined the Common Market, and Europeans came here. Presumably there was a bit more bureaucracy involved, but so what?

  8. Allan Christie An odd kind of tipping point for BREXIT when Opinium, the only semi-reliable online polling group in the last GE ,shows Remain moving into the lead while punters make Remain overwhelmingly the bookies favourite.You can talk of tipping points when the phone pills move, not before.

  9. Okay Folks,

    Bank Hoilday Monday and less than three full days to go, so it’s time for that ritual humiliation that is Election Predictions;

    Holyrood 2016.

    SNP: 71, Labour: 24, Tory: 22, LibDem: 3, Green: 8, UKIP: 1

    Don’t know anywhere near enough about anywhere else to predict anything, other than perhaps more playing the man not the ball from Leave and continued Meltdown in the Labour Party!

    Peter.

  10. @ Robert Newark

    ‘I think you will find it was more admiration for the way he has used social media to build his support, than admiration for his policies.’

    You may be right but the connection has been quite longstanding:

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/edoardo-quadri/grillofarage-connection

  11. PETE [email protected]
    I don’t really understand the fuss about freedom of movement in the EU. After all, UK people lived, worked and holidayed on the continent before we ever joined the Common Market, and Europeans came here. Presumably there was a bit more bureaucracy involved, but so what?

    So to turn that on it’s head then apart from a bit more bureacracy there will be no real barrier in allowing as many Europeans to work in the UK as wanted to if we did leave the E.U.?

  12. Meant to add to above because if that is the case it tends to undermine one of the main reasons given by the out campaign for leaving the UK, that is control of immigration from the E.U.

  13. NeilJ
    Obviously we’d be able to restrict it to workers that we actually had a need for, as would they. Anyone with skills shouldn’t be affected.

  14. PETE B
    ‘Obviously we’d be able to restrict it to workers that we actually had a need for, as would they. Anyone with skills shouldn’t be affected.’

    Okay, understand, so it would not just be a little extra bureacracy, it would be some sort of points system, they would only allow us to work there if we had skills that were in short supply in their country.

  15. Good Afternoon from a cloudy Bournemouth East.
    I see that Ms Truss, Minister, has appealed for non Tories to vote for REMAIN.

    I fear for the Remain Camp since politics has become quite partisan, in my opinion, since 2010.

    In contrast, the 1975 Campaign saw a lot of cross-party cooperation on the EC (EEC) platforms and JIm Callaghan came over as an avuncular politician.
    The attacks on Ed Miliband were quite vicious and sadly Jeremy Corbyn is not very interested in European, or indeed, Western Institutions.

  16. MARK W.
    You are so right Mark. By instinct, I was not a gay marriage supporter, but the resignations and religious sermons from many local party members, turned me into a straight, gay marriage supporter. I now realise that whatever people say about DC, he has moved the Tory party into the 21st century.

  17. “There was a world before 1973 you know, in which we were moderately successful for 900 years or so.”

    Those 900 years began with a foreign conquest, and consequent appalling brutality (the harrying of the North) after which it was more than two centuries until England’s rulers even spoke the English language rather than their native French.

    It’s arguable whether Norman and early Plantagenet England was “successful”, but if it was it was certainly at the expense of our sovereignty.

    :-)

  18. @ Peter Cairns (SNP)

    I think you are a tad high for Labour and I would reverse their position with the Tories: 22 to 24. I also think that the LD will get between 1-2, as I am not sure they are going to get any list seats and could lose one Highlands and Islands constituency based on the number of undecideds I have seen in the sub regional polling.

    And UKIP are now running behind both the Greens and LD in every region and are supposedly close to a melt down and civil war internally so I give them 0 seats.

    That said I think the Greens will break 10 seats and Patrick Harvie will do much better than predicted in Glasgow Kelvin.

  19. Depending on the results on May 5th are we going to be able to use the three national and London Assembly results as a predictor for the EU Referendum?

    In my own family, I have a nephew voting for me by proxy in the mail, the breakdown is currently 4: 2 for “Remain”.

    Two over 65 voting to “Remain” and one voting to “Leave” and two in their 40’s voting to “Remain” and one possibly voting to “Leave”.

    One of those over 65 was coralled by two teenage grandkids who would vote to “Remain” if they could vote – so we have had one switch from “Leave” to “Remain” during the campaign so far.

    Once the May 5th voting is over I am going to start lobbying the two remaining “Leave” voters to switch too.

    I am not a fan of globalization or “supra-nationalism”, but there are some very “dark forces” at work globally, and within the EU The UK citizenry at least have the levers, through the EU Parliament and the European Courts, to challenge some of those “dark forces”.

    Other may disagree, but I see my neighbours to the South of Canada slowly lurching towards another civil war over the growing socio-economic disparity in a stagnating global economic climate.

    Having lived through tough economic times, being black listed for political activity in the 1980’s, I am risk averse when it come to taking economic chances.

  20. PETE B
    “I don’t really understand the fuss about freedom of movement in the EU. After all, UK people lived, worked and holidayed on the continent before we ever joined the Common Market, and Europeans came here. Presumably there was a bit more bureaucracy involved, but so what?”
    __________

    Someone buy PETE B a nice cup of tea….Well said!! :-) :-)

  21. FUNTYPIPPIN:
    “I’m sure I’m not alone in thinking this is dubious!”

    You might well not be alone in thinking that, but you are wrong. The SNP, like all the major parties in Scotland has a broad range of policies. You can read their manifesto if you don’t believe me. Bearing in mind they have been in government for 9 years, and most people in Scotland expect them to lead a minority or majority administration from next week. The idea that they are a single-issue party is badly dated and part of the narrative that those who oppose the SNP like to paint. It’s all good politics too, but it doesn’t withstand the slightest scrutiny.

    As for Ukip, they are developing as a political party. Their policy offering is expanding and is more mature than even a few years ago. Like the SNP, they have a tightrope act to perform in future years. Many in Ukip are libertarians, some as far to the right to be touching anarchism. The success Ukip has had in scooping up Labour voters will be tested if those people get to set party policy. And if the left prevails, those economic liberals will surely do what the Tory right has been doing to Cameron and did to Major.

    It’s not an impossible task, but the risk for Farage is that centrism is mistaken for selling out and being bland. Ukip will necessarily lose some of its USP which, for now, is being a blank slate onto which people can paint their own colours. Ukip’s opponents need to mercilessly expose any policy gaps and thereafter expose any points of disagreement within the party to cleave support away. The key difference with the SNP is that I have less belief in the instincts of Farage & co to be able to manage a big tent. See the recent infighting between Farage, Evans and Carswell for all the evidence you need.

    Tidal forces are pulling at the other parties, and Cameron is doing a better job than Farage or Corbyn in keeping his party united… and he’s not looking secure in that by any means.

    All this leads me to predict further volatility in English politics. I sense the /possibility/ for a breakthrough for Plaid, for the Greens (in Scotland), and greater regionalisation of the Labour party:
    there is nothing in principle to stop Scottish Labour having distinct policies on devolved matters and being open & proud about it. If Labour cedes the firm-unionist ground to the Tories it might help and hinder their recovery in different ways. I sense, though, that after several years of poor results, the willingness for Scottish Labour to gamble on a radical shift could be arriving.

    Sorry, slight thought-dump there. Been away for a few days. Hope it’s just about coherent enough.

  22. @Allan Christie

    “use your sexuality as a political weapon”

    Firstly, *what*? Secondly, I’d say talking about one’s personal experience in the context of a political party and the reaction one got in relation to one of the issues of the day is entirely on topic. That the topic happens to be sexuality should be entirely immaterial. If we were talking about the attitude of Liberal Democrats to married people’s tax breaks, and someone mentioned their spouse, would you say they were “using their marriage as a weapon”?

  23. ALISDAIR

    I’ve said what I have said and that’s the end of it. If my comment has broken any rules then I’m sure it will be removed….

    rooools……..R…………rooools

  24. Surprises me all this UKIP confidence, I have seen no material in the North West at all?

    TheLondon Mayoral Vote, will be interesting, after May 2015 do we take serious note of polling figures, I don’t any longer

  25. @Alun009
    “…The key difference with the SNP is that I have less belief in the instincts of Farage & co to be able to manage a big tent. See the recent infighting between Farage, Evans and Carswell for all the evidence you need.”

    Absolutely. Farage is a great speaker, but I’m not sure about his leadership ability when people disagree with him a bit.

    @AC
    “Someone buy PETE B a nice cup of tea”
    Thanks, but a pint of real ale would be even more appreciated! (I suppose that will soon be half a litre if we vote to Remain. )

  26. @Andy Shadrack

    “Depending on the results on May 5th are we going to be able to use the three national and London Assembly results as a predictor for the EU Referendum?”

    Only the local council elections. The others will not even be indicative of the Remain/Leave margins in those countries/regions.

  27. Why on earth should anyone by precluded from mentioning some personal or biographical detail here more than once?

  28. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    Okay Folks,
    Bank Hoilday Monday and less than three full days to go, so it’s time for that ritual humiliation that is Election Predictions;
    Holyrood 2016.
    SNP: 71, Labour: 24, Tory: 22, LibDem: 3, Green: 8, UKIP: 1
    ______________

    My prediction….SNP 70 …Labour..25…. Tory..20.. Lib/Dem 7 Greens..7

  29. PETE B

    “Thanks, but a pint of real ale would be even more appreciated! (I suppose that will soon be half a litre if we vote to Remain. )”
    _____

    If we vote to leave then the pint of real ale will be on me. :-)

  30. “I suppose that will soon be half a litre if we vote to Remain.”

    Good thing too, that 13% less will stop you taking years off your life…see Brussels loves you!

    Peter.

  31. Britain Elects [email protected] 1h1 hour ago
    April’s polling averages for the Scottish Parliament suggest Labour and the Tories tied for second place on MSPs

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/727167219029970944

  32. Allan C
    I’ll hold you to that! (the pint)
    Peter C
    If I wanted to drink half-litres I’d have joined some foreign organisation – oh, wait….

    OK, my prediction for Scotland election
    SNP 75 Con 23 Lab 20 LibDem 5 Green 5 UKIP 1

  33. @Guymonde

    Agreed that inflation doesn’t have to be all bad, a moderate amount does have the virtue of eroding debt etc.

    Regarding the practical use of house price rises, for some it is of practical use, e.g. those who wish to sell up and relocate abroad, those who wish to downsize and free up some of the cash etc.

  34. Can people stop using alcohol as a weapon?

  35. Really worrying story from the Daily Mail about what the EU’s planning to do with our pints.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-425868/EU-stealing-crown-great-British-pint.html

    Worth noting the date, though…….

  36. @”Regarding the practical use of house price rises, for some it is of practical use”

    Yep-the most significant being the Chancellors of the Exchequer who tax them :-)

  37. Would this be the wrong time to point out that Hitler didn’t have a problem with homosexuals at first, but then he went mad and started killing them?

  38. @Colin
    “Yep-the most significant being the Chancellors of the Exchequer who tax them :-)”
    As I’ve possibly remarked here before, they don’t.
    My previous house provided me (and my ex-wife) with an unearned, untaxed capital gain of about £1M over 20 years. Nice work if you can get it.
    Of course had I held on it for a further 3 years I would have won a further £300K or so (untaxed, unearned). Even nicer work. To be fair, I would have had to pay council tax of about £5000 but still looks a pretty good deal.
    And yes, we downsized into two separate dwellings so it sort of worked on that basis. On the other hand the two separate dwellings had inflated at the same rate so for us it was a zero sum game.

  39. James E
    I read that – I’m a bit baffled why we have to have a CE mark on pint glasses when no-one else uses pints. Bring back the crown!

  40. David Colby

    Surely the most important aspect that Hitler avoided deliberate bombing of Leicester during the war?

    That can only have been to produce tonight’s result – historical inevitability.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ww2peopleswar/stories/80/a2682380.shtml

  41. So my home city is now famous for more than an old wall, Gok Wan and the Elephant Man. Excellent.

    The real question is how will it affect the Leicestershire PCC election on Thursday?!

  42. DAVID COLBY:
    “Would this be the wrong time to point out that Hitler didn’t have a problem with homosexuals at first, but then he went mad and started killing them?”

    This would be funny in a world without homophobia and free from neo-nazis. Sadly neither is the case, so such jokes only serve to underline the vulnerability some people feel from the forces of hatred and bigotry. I know you meant it as a harmless joke, and this is only my opinion, but there is harm from even making jokes like this.

    Sorry to be a killjoy, but I do feel quite strongly about this and I had to comment.

  43. ON
    “Surely the most important aspect that Hitler avoided deliberate bombing of Leicester during the war?”

    Presumably because he thought it was full of Zionists?

  44. MARK W, I’m pleased you found the courage to come out and sadden that it was tough for you. No one in this day and age should feel the need to hide their sexuality.

  45. Survation/Record Holyrood poll

    Constituency:
    SNP 49% (-4)
    LAB 21% (+2)
    CON 19% (+4)
    LD 7% (-1)
    Other 5% (NC)

    List:
    SNP 43% (+1)
    CON 20% (+2)
    LAB 19% (+3)
    GRE 7% (-4)
    LD 6% (-1)
    UKIP 2% (-2)
    Other 2%

    (poll taken prior to Leicester City demonstrating the decline of London and Northern England)

  46. Nope. That was the April Survation poll. :-(

  47. Congratulations to Leicester City for winning the Premiership.

    From a lifelong fan of the club who finished rank bottom.

    :-)

    Nice too that the world’s most popular sport has produced one of sport’s most heart warming stories.

  48. Alun009
    “Can people stop using alcohol as a weapon?”

    Dangerous stuff, that Strongbow.

  49. OldNat

    Those are the last lot of tables (f/w 15-20 April). These are the latest ones (f/w 1-2 May):

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Final-DR-Scomnibus-010516DCCH-1c0d2h4-ltv.pdf

    However the previous poll was online while this is a phone one (landline and mobile) so they are not really comparable.

    It’s possible that some of the SNP drop is either due to mode effect. One notable difference is that (unusually) this poll found fewer Yes voters than expected (41%) while online polls normally find too many (50% in the Survation April). Obviously this is weighted for, but it hints at other possible disparities between the modes.

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