There are three EU polls in the Sunday papers.

  • An online Opinium poll for the Observer had topline figures of REMAIN 42%, LEAVE 41%, DON’T KNOW 14%. The one point lead for remain compares to a four point leave lead a month ago (tabs).
  • An online ORB poll for the Independent had topline figures of 50% REMAIN, 50% LEAVE without turnout, REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 51% once weighted for turnout (the previous ORB online poll a month ago had a break of Remain 51%, Leave 49%, but didn’t account for turnout) (tabs)
  • An online ICM poll in the Sun on Sunday had toplines of 43% REMAIN, 46% LEAVE, DON’T KNOW 11%. These are almost unchanged from the ICM poll in the week, which had figures of 44% remain and 46% leave.

Three online polls, all showing the extremely close referendum race that online polling has been consistently showing. The Opinium poll also had some intriguing Westminster voting intention figures: CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%. An eight point lead for the Conservatives is the largest any poll has shown since before the budget, and is an increase of seven points since Opinium’s last poll. The Tues-Fri fieldwork period overlapped with Labour’s anti-Semitism row, so it could be that it has dented Labour’s support… but it is only one poll, so wait to see if other polling echoes it. (Interestingly the tables for the Opinium poll have the voting intention question at the end, after a question about who people would trust on the economy. If that actually is the order the questions were asked it that could have potentially affected responses as well.)

UPDATE: Ignore the strange question ordering in the Opinium tables – the questions were actually asked in the normal order, with voting intention at the start


159 Responses to “Sunday polls on the EU referendum”

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  1. those = whose

  2. @Chrislane1945: “Anti Semitism is part of Ultra Left politics”

    Hmmm…I wonder if we can think of any ultra-right parties that might be anti-semitic.

    The fact is, racial prejudice is endemic in most societies, but tends to be most pronounced amongst the least educated, lowest achieving groups who are also those who tend to be drawn towards extreme politics.

  3. SOMERJOHN

    You missed the point. Hitler loved Communism; just look at the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact.

  4. In case of sense of humour failure, the above post was a joke.

  5. NEILA

    Do you not think that you’d be hard pressed to find too many people in the wider world who allege that the UK has the best healthcare in the world? I’ve never met a british retiree in france that thinks this.

  6. @David,

    I did say allegedly, and I didn’t mean that I was making the allegation..

  7. Somerjohn
    “Hmmm…I wonder if we can think of any ultra-right parties that might be anti-semitic.”

    I’m sure there are some, but if you’re thinking of 1930s and 1940s Germany, the clue is in the full name of the ruling party – not right-wing.

  8. @David Colby
    If you follow the international comparisons run by the Commonwealth Fund (of New York) (EG http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2014/jun/mirror-mirror) you will find that this respected, privately funded, international foundation is unequivocal in its judgment that UK healthcare is the best in the world leading overall and in 9 of the 12 factors assessed (as well as being the second cheapest) of the 11 countries assessed.
    Those British retirees in France are enjoying the healthcare ranked 9th out of 11 despite spend/head which exceeds the UK by 20%

  9. GUYMONDE

    Research published in the European Journal of Cancer shows the UK has the worst survival rates for cancer in western Europe, with rates one third lower than those of Sweden

    Infant mortality uk 3.38 per 1000 france 2.28 per thousand

    Female life expectency uk 83 france 85

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